New potential WR drafting theory (1 Viewer)

[bigfishboy]

I have a theory, but don’t have the time or knowledge to crunch the data. So, I will just post it for the Shark Pool to feed on. Tell me if you think it is stupid and I shouldn't waste my time on it, or if it has merit and I should lock the kids in a closet so I can work it out.

I always go heavy on RBs early in the draft. I usually draft RB,RB,WR or RB,WR,RB. I usually end up with good RB corps and average WR corps. It seems this is the typical approach around here and does lead to success.

But I have always noticed that during the season, if I have a WR go down there are slim pickings on the waiver wire and it is very hard to determine who might have value. It seems to me that all of the WRs worthy of a start are drafted and during the year very few FAs make an impact. Even when an injury occurs it is difficult for another WR from that team to come in and be successful fantasy wise. It usually ends up in a tailchasing exercise picking up last weeks hot free agent never to see him do it again. However, if I have a RB go down, there are usually a few potential fill-ins to be had. If a RB gets hurt or benched, you know his backup is usually going to be productive. And a shark can get fill in RBs off the waiver wire during the season.

So, I think I could make an argument for drafting RB,WR,WR,RB or RB,WR,WR,WR knowing that as the season wore on I could find a RB on the waiver wire if my #2 didn’t work out.

To test my hypothesis, I think I would have take data from years past and find out how many RBs and WRs were not drafted but put up starter type numbers. I should break it down by week since a lot of fill-ins may only play while the original starter is out. If my theory holds correct, there will be many more fill-in RBs than WRs that cracked the starting ranks and made a difference.

What say Ye?

 

[easy like sunday morning]

If you draft later in the round I think this strategy for sure makes sense. Would you rather take the 10th to 12th best RB or the top WRs? If you take the 10th best RB and the numbers play out like the picks (I know they won't but assume they do) then your opponent will outscore you at the #1RB position. If you take a top WR, and maybe 2, you can outscore them at the 1/2WR spots. You can then come back in the 3rd and 4th round and get RBs that aren't going to score as well as the top tier RBs the teams at the top of the first took. However, if your WRs are outscoring their WRs then you don't have to have RBs that score as much.

 

[MLBrandow]

Ask and ye shall receive. Here are 4 mocks I've been in from about 3 weeks to about a week ago.

From the 2-hole, 12TSSR:

RB WR WR RB QB

QB

Kitna, Jon DET --- 8 0

Palmer, Carson CIN --- 5 0

RB

Portis, Clinton WAS --- 8 0

Benson, Cedric CHI --- 7 0

Williams, DeAngelo CAR --- 9 0

White, LenDale TEN --- 7 0

WR

Robinson, Koren MIN --- 6 0

Burress, Plaxico NYG --- 4 0

Brown, Reggie PHI --- 9 0

Clayton, Mark BAL --- 7 0

Boldin, Anquan ARI --- 9 0

Curtis, Kevin STL --- 7 0

TE

Franks, Bubba GBP --- 6 0

Watson, Ben NEP --- 6 0

K

Wilkins, Jeff STL --- 7 0

DT

Dolphins - DT MIA --- 8 0

From the 1-hole, 12TSSR:

RB WR WR QB RB

QB

Palmer, Carson CIN --- 5 0

Brunell, Mark WAS --- 8 0

RB

Johnson, Larry KCC --- 3 0

Drew, Maurice JAX --- 6 0

Dayne, Ron DEN --- 4 0

Benson, Cedric CHI --- 7 0

Green, Ahman GBP --- 6 0

Moore, Mewelde MIN --- 6 0

WR

Brown, Reggie PHI --- 9 0

Bruce, Isaac STL --- 7 0

Boldin, Anquan ARI --- 9 0

Harrison, Marvin IND --- 6 0

Gardner, Rod GBP --- 6 0

TE

Watson, Ben NEP --- 6 0

K

Mare, Olindo MIA --- 8 0

DT

Eagles - DT PHI --- 9 0

From the 12-hole:

RB WR WR QB RB

QB

Carr, David HOU --- 5 0

Palmer, Carson CIN --- 5 0

RB

Williams, Carnell TBB --- 4 0

Moore, Mewelde MIN --- 6 0

McAllister, Deuce NOS --- 7 0

Cobbs, Cedric DEN --- 4 0

Drew, Maurice JAX --- 6 0

Benson, Cedric CHI --- 7 0

WR

Coles, Laveranues NYJ --- 9 0

Burress, Plaxico NYG --- 4 0

Smith, Steve CAR --- 9 0

White, Roddy ATL --- 5 0

Clayton, Michael TBB --- 4 0

TE

Smith, LJ PHI --- 9 0

K

Wilkins, Jeff STL --- 7 0

DT

Panthers - DT CAR --- 9 0

A slow-mock on a website, from the 8-hole, 12TSSR:

RB WR WR WR RB

1.08 Clinton Portis, RB, WAS

2.05 Torry Holt, WR, STL

3.08 Plaxico Burress, WR, NYG

4.05 Donald Driver, WR, GB

5.08 Cedric Benson, RB, CHI

6.05 Ahman Green, RB, GB

7.08 LenDale White, RB, TEN

8.05 Aaron Brooks, QB, OAK

To answer your question, there is a BIG dropoff between the top-tier WRs and the rest of the crap out there, which is all mediocre. After about the top 15, there is just a bunch of sludge that's all about the same.

The RBs form a big bell curve on my value chart. After the first 8 or 9, there is a big dip in value, and back in round 6, you see it go way back up.

6 is the magic round right now for RBs, and grabbing on in the 5th assures you of getting a solid RB2 value with some amount of risk, but you can always lock him up with a 6 and a 7.

Usually what I try to go for is STUD RB, Top-15WRx3, Med-Risk RB2, Med-RiskRB2, Med-RiskRB2, rest of draft.

Naturally one should accomodate for unpassable values, like for me, Carson Palmer in the 4th or say Gonzo in the 7th.

Hope this helps a bit.

 

[Cixelsyd]

I'm sorry, I just think it's ridiculous that people think they have a draft theory that goes RB-RB-WR or RB-WR-QB, or whatever... The draft isn't static, it's dynamic... you have to draft the best team you can... and the first priority is to draft the best STARTING lineup you can...

So heres more of a formula for you -

1. Make your projects and make your tiers...

2. Know your starting requirements, flex requirements and point system....

3. Know your owners... tendacies, past draft experiences... which one of them have "theories", I love those guys... and focus on the guys drafting around you so you know what to expect...

4. Know your draft spot... once you have that, then you can work on a strategy... but it can't be rigid... your goal is to draft the best team possible... that will outscore everyone else... the draft may dictate you take a QB/RB/or WR...

With all that info, you can target who will be taken in the rounds... and figure out the best team you can form... Mock drafts kill time, are interesting, but really... I haven't had a draft in my league follow the ADP's... Also, if you have a keeper league, you have to factor in the info also...

And if you have guys you WANT, target them and don't be afraid to reach.... just don't freak if they get drafted before you can get them...

Draft theories are fine, but the best starting lineup is the key... our SB winner last year took Manning 2nd overall and took a WR in the 2nd... yet he won it all...

The year of the QB (2004) the teams with Manning, Culpepper and McNabb all went to the playoffs, but the winner that year had the top RB, WR and TE, and shuffled QB's....

So know your league, know your draft spot, know your owners, and draft the team that will give you the strongest starters.... which means, you can't just say RB-RB-WR-WR or RB-WR-WR-RB

 

[Kit Fisto]

Alot of people are straying from the "Stud RB" theory, as the evolution of the RBBC is killing the hobby (or at least changing the way we look at things). Elite WRs are equally as hard to collect as RBs.

 

[Kleck]

... knowing that as the season wore on I could find a RB on the waiver wire if my #2 didn’t work out.What say Ye?

I say you're nuts.

 

[Wildcat]

... knowing that as the season wore on I could find a RB on the waiver wire if my #2 didn’t work out.What say Ye?

I say you're nuts.

Unless you are wanting fullbacks.

 

[Fullback Fro]

And your theory is New how?

 

[KCC]

I'm sorry, I just think it's ridiculous that people think they have a draft theory that goes RB-RB-WR or RB-WR-QB, or whatever... The draft isn't static, it's dynamic... you have to draft the best team you can... and the first priority is to draft the best STARTING lineup you can...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have a theory, but don’t have the time or knowledge to crunch the data. So, I will just post it for the Shark Pool to feed on. Tell me if you think it is stupid and I shouldn't waste my time on it, or if it has merit and I should lock the kids in a closet so I can work it out.I always go heavy on RBs early in the draft. I usually draft RB,RB,WR or RB,WR,RB. I usually end up with good RB corps and average WR corps. It seems this is the typical approach around here and does lead to success.But I have always noticed that during the season, if I have a WR go down there are slim pickings on the waiver wire and it is very hard to determine who might have value. It seems to me that all of the WRs worthy of a start are drafted and during the year very few FAs make an impact. Even when an injury occurs it is difficult for another WR from that team to come in and be successful fantasy wise. It usually ends up in a tailchasing exercise picking up last weeks hot free agent never to see him do it again. However, if I have a RB go down, there are usually a few potential fill-ins to be had. If a RB gets hurt or benched, you know his backup is usually going to be productive. And a shark can get fill in RBs off the waiver wire during the season.So, I think I could make an argument for drafting RB,WR,WR,RB or RB,WR,WR,WR knowing that as the season wore on I could find a RB on the waiver wire if my #2 didn’t work out.To test my hypothesis, I think I would have take data from years past and find out how many RBs and WRs were not drafted but put up starter type numbers. I should break it down by week since a lot of fill-ins may only play while the original starter is out. If my theory holds correct, there will be many more fill-in RBs than WRs that cracked the starting ranks and made a difference.What say Ye?

If you go WR/WR I think you need to lock in on guys that will definitely play, do not have much injury history, don't take plays off, dont get into fights with cops off field...I think Holt/CJ/StSmith, some form of that trio is the safest.3.12/4.01: You ahve to go RB/RB and maybe get lucky is someone like C.Taylor falls around here...can also grab DeShaun Foster and lock up D.Williams in the 6th to form a top12 combo potentially. 5.12/6.01: Best value but you probably want to grab someone like Ahman Green on the turn...7.12/8.01: You have to get a QB at some point..also want to snare a WR with upside...Michael Clayton has been dropping to around here...has a lot of upside.It can be done.

 

[buck naked]

And your theory is New how?

Exactly. Just new to him, not new to many others.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

I'm sorry, I just think it's ridiculous that people think they have a draft theory that goes RB-RB-WR or RB-WR-QB, or whatever... The draft isn't static, it's dynamic... you have to draft the best team you can... and the first priority is to draft the best STARTING lineup you can...

I agree. People tend to outhink their draft strategy and locking into one set order to draft positions is suicide. Mastering the art of drafting is being able to adjust your needs and wants to what is on the board at the time.

 

[datonn]

I'm sorry, I just think it's ridiculous that people think they have a draft theory that goes RB-RB-WR or RB-WR-QB, or whatever... The draft isn't static, it's dynamic... you have to draft the best team you can... and the first priority is to draft the best STARTING lineup you can...

I agree. People tend to outhink their draft strategy and locking into one set order to draft positions is suicide. Mastering the art of drafting is being able to adjust your needs and wants to what is on the board at the time.

I would even take a half-step back from the previous statement and say that when it comes to the draft, BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE.I don't buy in or subscribe to any "draft theories" other than one: draft the BEST player on the board when you are on the clock, regardless of need/position.....unless you are in a league where trades are not allowed and/or believe you will have a difficult time completing trades following the draft.I've opened RB/RB/RB/RB. I've opened WR/WR/WR/QB. Heck, I've even opened QB/QB/WR/WR! Draft the best talent absolutely possible at each and every slot, then worry about filling your line-up between the draft and the regular season.....trading away excess for positions of need, as if you are SUPER-strong at QB or WR or ???, there are bound to be 1-2+ teams in the league who are not.A lot depends, of course on league format and the other owners you're playing with. However, why would you want to pigeon-hole yourself into drafting a RB, WR or QB at such-and-such a slot when those players might not be the best players available? I've never understood why people would do that....unless they are playing in no-trade leagues or have about as much chance of cutting a trade with other owners as the Jets, Bills and 49ers do of winning the Super Bowl this year.....

 

[bigfishboy]

OK, break time at work. I didn't expect such a range of replies, I will try to address them all quickly.1. "Do not trap yourself into a hard and fast theory" - You are correct and I am wouldn't do that. When writing the post, I wanted to simplify and not make it so long that you wouldn't read it. Thanks for your time and I realize a lot of these kinds of posts are made and they get tedious.2. "This is new how?" - I realize a lot of posts get made about the Stud RB theory, or the Stud WR theory or blah, blah, blah. My thinking about drafting this way due to free agent availability later is new (to me).3. "Draft best player available and trade later" - I can't disagree, I am just trying to put a little spin on value of positions.Basically, I wanted to see if anyone thought there was merit to put in the time to actually test the free agent availability during the season and if that should be worked into the value of positional drafting. This is the most informative reply so far:

... knowing that as the season wore on I could find a RB on the waiver wire if my #2 didn’t work out.What say Ye?

I say you're nuts.

I can think of several waiver wire RBs that came onto the scene and made a difference to the sharks who picked them up. (Last year Gado, Marion Barber, Jonathan Wells, Alstott)I can think of very few waiver wire WRs that did that. (Last year Chris Henry)But is that enough to put a little more weight on draftin WRs?

 

[dozer]

OK, break time at work. I didn't expect such a range of replies, I will try to address them all quickly.1. "Do not trap yourself into a hard and fast theory" - You are correct and I am wouldn't do that. When writing the post, I wanted to simplify and not make it so long that you wouldn't read it. Thanks for your time and I realize a lot of these kinds of posts are made and they get tedious.2. "This is new how?" - I realize a lot of posts get made about the Stud RB theory, or the Stud WR theory or blah, blah, blah. My thinking about drafting this way due to free agent availability later is new (to me).3. "Draft best player available and trade later" - I can't disagree, I am just trying to put a little spin on value of positions.Basically, I wanted to see if anyone thought there was merit to put in the time to actually test the free agent availability during the season and if that should be worked into the value of positional drafting. This is the most informative reply so far:

... knowing that as the season wore on I could find a RB on the waiver wire if my #2 didn’t work out.What say Ye?

I say you're nuts.

I can think of several waiver wire RBs that came onto the scene and made a difference to the sharks who picked them up. (Last year Gado, Marion Barber, Jonathan Wells, Alstott)I can think of very few waiver wire WRs that did that. (Last year Chris Henry)But is that enough to put a little more weight on draftin WRs?

Yes, but the teams that picked up these guys were probably at or near the top of the waiver order because they had a bad week. It's almost like sacrificing a win to get a good waiver pick.Planning your draft strategy because you think you can play the wire better is a mistake my friend. The top waiver pick each week is usually pretty obvious.

 

[5Rings]

I agree with the initial posters' idea, even though I don't think its new.

I also agree that drafting is dynamic; the different mocks I've been in this year have all been different, bpa out of buckets is still the theory I subscribe to.

I drafted 1st in a start 1-1-3-1-1-1 flex league. Went LJ at 1, then Fitz/Marvin/Driver in rds 2-4. I'm looking forward to seeing how this team "plays out" this year.

FWIW

Smith, Alex SFO --- 7 0

Favre, Brett GBP --- 6 0

Rivers, Philip SDC --- 3 0

Johnson, Larry KCC --- 3 0

Jones, Thomas CHI --- 7 0

Williams, DeAngelo CAR --- 9 0

Moats, Ryan PHI --- 9 0

Barlow, Kevan SFO --- 7 0

Ferguson, Robert GBP --- 6 0

Porter, Jerry OAK --- 3 0

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI --- 9 0

Harrison, Marvin IND --- 6 0

Williams, Mike DET --- 8 0

Driver, Donald GBP --- 6 0

Heap, Todd BAL --- 7 0

Smith, Alex TBB --- 4 0

Brown, Josh SEA --- 5 0

Elam, Jason DEN --- 4 0

Packers - DT GBP --- 6 0

Lions - DT DET --- 8 0

 

[Boulder Toads]

Just did a 12-team mock at fantasyfootballcalculator.com with 11 humans and 1 computer. I ended up going 3WR in my first 4 picks, so thought the OP might be interested. For those not familiar, the scoring rules at that webiste are:

Start : 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K and 1DEF

No ppr ... 6pts for all TD's (I think) with 10yds/pt rush/rec & 20yds/pt pass

Drafting from the #11 spot, here were my first 9 rounds:

1.11 Cadillac Williams

2.02 Torry Holt

Caddy was the 10th RB taken - 11 were taken in the first round. Holt was the first WR taken, and this started a round-2 rush on WR's. I like these picks, but was hoping for Rudi or Ronnie B. at 1.11.

3.11 Roy Williams

4.02 Santana Moss

At the 3/4 turn, I was thinking WR/RB, hoping for a R. Wayne and C. Taylor combo. Wayne went at like 3.5, but I felt good about Roy in Martz's offense. I gambled that Taylor would still be around, but missed him by one pick (went at 4.01). The guy with the #12 pick started RB-RB-RB-RB, and I was banking on him taking a WR or two at this 3/4 turn. At the end of the day, I was happy with Santana Moss here, in a start 3 WR format. W. Dunn was still available though ... maybe I should have taken him??

5.11 Ron Dayne

6.02 Deangelo Williams

Went with some RB2 potential here. I like the picks, but feel a bit exposed at RB2 as I usually have 2RB's by now. The Mike Bell talk started up as soon as I made the Dayne pick, so the cat is definetely out of the bag there. I feel like I secured a RB from two power running teams, and hope that one of them pans out.

7.11 Keyshawn Johnson

8.02 Greg Jones

Good depth for a WR3 and RB2 if needed for bye weeks / injuries. If certain events transpire, either of these guys could become quite valuable mid-season.

9.11 Mike Vick

First time ever drafting Vick. Felt odd. Oh well, was hoping for Warner, but he went 5 or 6 picks before this. I backed him up with Favre 2 rounds later at 11.11.

I'll copy this into the 11th Round Draft Pick thread as another helpful (hopefully) datapoint.

TOADS

 

[weasel3515]

I won't cite everyone above, but here are my observations:

First, kudos to the author of this thread for taking a different tact.

Second, definitely look at the scoring system as someone else mentioned. In a HP league I was in last year each reception was worth a point. That made the top WRs as valuable as the top RBs. I went RB-RB-WR-WR-RB and won it all despite having Priest and Kevina Jones as my first two picks (Chad Johnson, Steve Smith and Mike Anderson as 3-4-5 and Carson Palmer later didn't hurt).

Outside of such a league I would still tend to lean toward RBs as they are more dependable, if not more often injured. Rarely do WRs perform in the top-5 or even top-10 year to year and WRs are easier to get off the waiver wire than RBs.

Good food for thought.

 

[weasel3515]

I won't cite everyone above, but here are my observations:

First, kudos to the author of this thread for taking a different tact.

Second, definitely look at the scoring system as someone else mentioned. In a HP league I was in last year each reception was worth a point. That made the top WRs as valuable as the top RBs. I went RB-RB-WR-WR-RB and won it all despite having Priest and Kevina Jones as my first two picks (Chad Johnson, Steve Smith and Mike Anderson as 3-4-5 and Carson Palmer later didn't hurt).

Outside of such a league I would still tend to lean toward RBs as they are more dependable, if not more often injured. Rarely do WRs perform in the top-5 or even top-10 year to year and WRs are easier to get off the waiver wire than RBs.

Good food for thought.

 

[The Jerk]

I'm sorry, I just think it's ridiculous that people think they have a draft theory that goes RB-RB-WR or RB-WR-QB, or whatever... The draft isn't static, it's dynamic... you have to draft the best team you can... and the first priority is to draft the best STARTING lineup you can...

I agree. People tend to outhink their draft strategy and locking into one set order to draft positions is suicide. Mastering the art of drafting is being able to adjust your needs and wants to what is on the board at the time.

I would even take a half-step back from the previous statement and say that when it comes to the draft, BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE.I don't buy in or subscribe to any "draft theories" other than one: draft the BEST player on the board when you are on the clock, regardless of need/position.....unless you are in a league where trades are not allowed and/or believe you will have a difficult time completing trades following the draft.I've opened RB/RB/RB/RB. I've opened WR/WR/WR/QB. Heck, I've even opened QB/QB/WR/WR! Draft the best talent absolutely possible at each and every slot, then worry about filling your line-up between the draft and the regular season.....trading away excess for positions of need, as if you are SUPER-strong at QB or WR or ???, there are bound to be 1-2+ teams in the league who are not.A lot depends, of course on league format and the other owners you're playing with. However, why would you want to pigeon-hole yourself into drafting a RB, WR or QB at such-and-such a slot when those players might not be the best players available? I've never understood why people would do that....unless they are playing in no-trade leagues or have about as much chance of cutting a trade with other owners as the Jets, Bills and 49ers do of winning the Super Bowl this year.....

Love the points on not pigeon-holing draft rounds with positions. This approach inherently places artificial limits on the value you can achieve in any given round. There seems to be more posts referencing this "scripting" of drafts by position this year than I've seen in many years. (Re-joined forum last year, but posted several years on the old cheatsheets.net board and r.s.f.f. before that)One note of caution as to drafting 4 RBs early or no RBs early and then seeking to upgrade through trades: Not all leagues trade the same. Some leagues feature very little trading for whatever reason. Others may include several owners who look to get too much from a trade, especially if they see the situation you are in. So just understand your league before you overcommit to any one position.

 

[Shiver44]

If i'm in a particular scoring system, that favors Receivers, i'll do it. You can live on waiver wire backs, if you have 1 Stud RB along with a Stud stable of Receivers. I nearly won my serious local league last year, with that kind of a team.

 

[The Jerk]

If i'm in a particular scoring system, that favors Receivers, i'll do it. You can live on waiver wire backs, if you have 1 Stud RB along with a Stud stable of Receivers. I nearly won my serious local league last year, with that kind of a team.

A lot of posters seem to be thinking that only RBs bust. Please remember that WRs can and will bust, too. Just be careful about assuming that you can pick one stud RB and three stud WRs like there's nothing to it. If you hit on all four players, you will almost certainly be competitive. Of course, that's true if you draft 2 RBs and 2 WRs with your first four picks too.

 

[BlueOnion]

I have a theory, but don’t have the time or knowledge to crunch the data. So, I will just post it for the Shark Pool to feed on. Tell me if you think it is stupid and I shouldn't waste my time on it, or if it has merit and I should lock the kids in a closet so I can work it out.I always go heavy on RBs early in the draft. I usually draft RB,RB,WR or RB,WR,RB. I usually end up with good RB corps and average WR corps. It seems this is the typical approach around here and does lead to success.But I have always noticed that during the season, if I have a WR go down there are slim pickings on the waiver wire and it is very hard to determine who might have value. It seems to me that all of the WRs worthy of a start are drafted and during the year very few FAs make an impact. Even when an injury occurs it is difficult for another WR from that team to come in and be successful fantasy wise. It usually ends up in a tailchasing exercise picking up last weeks hot free agent never to see him do it again. However, if I have a RB go down, there are usually a few potential fill-ins to be had. If a RB gets hurt or benched, you know his backup is usually going to be productive. And a shark can get fill in RBs off the waiver wire during the season.So, I think I could make an argument for drafting RB,WR,WR,RB or RB,WR,WR,WR knowing that as the season wore on I could find a RB on the waiver wire if my #2 didn’t work out.To test my hypothesis, I think I would have take data from years past and find out how many RBs and WRs were not drafted but put up starter type numbers. I should break it down by week since a lot of fill-ins may only play while the original starter is out. If my theory holds correct, there will be many more fill-in RBs than WRs that cracked the starting ranks and made a difference.What say Ye?

In short, I have bought into this. Provided all the blue-chip running backs are gone by my 1st round pick, I will gladly take a wide receiver with my first pick.However, a lot of unmentioned (yet important variables);- How many teams in the league- How many mandatory starting positions are delegated to RB (1 or 2)- Scoring (PPR?)

 

[Dolfan]

Always a good idea to lock the kids in a closet..

Any excuse will do

 

[AB in DC]

But I have always noticed that during the season, if I have a WR go down there are slim pickings on the waiver wire and it is very hard to determine who might have value. It seems to me that all of the WRs worthy of a start are drafted and during the year very few FAs make an impact. Even when an injury occurs it is difficult for another WR from that team to come in and be successful fantasy wise. It usually ends up in a tailchasing exercise picking up last weeks hot free agent never to see him do it again. However, if I have a RB go down, there are usually a few potential fill-ins to be had. If a RB gets hurt or benched, you know his backup is usually going to be productive. And a shark can get fill in RBs off the waiver wire during the season.

Depends on how big your roster is. I've found that there are usually a bunch of WRs that come from nowhere every year. But my primary league has only a 14-man roster, so there's a lot more on the waiver wire. If you have a 20-man roster, you may be in a different situation.

 

[Monarch]

I think his point is running backs can be had via the waiver wire and wide receivers can't. I draft based on the best player I think will perform regardless of WR, QB, or RB. Get value and make each pick count. I would rather pick Chad Johnson than Domanick Davis or Brian Westbrook for example. Pick the sure thing if you can. Drafts and leagues are won in the later rounds. Willie Parker, LJ, Thomas Jones all can be had in the later rounds. RBs will always command attention because of the shortage of productive ones. If you start 3 wrs and draft RBs with 3 of your top 4 picks (as some do) then you better be good at picking value in the WR position in later rounds. The waiver wire should not factor in your decision. Who you can get in the later rounds that you feel can be productive starters should.

 

[Justloveit]

In a 12 team league, standard scoring + 0.5 points per reception which two WR's would you want if you decided to go with the WR WR in the first 2 rounds strategy? Assume you have the choice of any duo.

 

[Hue G]

In a standard redraft this year I've seen the best results in the mock drafts I've done by going RB-WR-RB-WR-RB for the first five rounds. Obviously you have to see who falls to you, I really like Westbrook this year and if he were to fall to me in the second I'd probably jump on him. But I do like a lot of the WRs that are being drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds, players like Rod Smith and Nate Burleson provide nice value there IMHO.

 

[The Jerk]

I think his point is running backs can be had via the waiver wire and wide receivers can't. I draft based on the best player I think will perform regardless of WR, QB, or RB. Get value and make each pick count. I would rather pick Chad Johnson than Domanick Davis or Brian Westbrook for example. Pick the sure thing if you can. Drafts and leagues are won in the later rounds. Willie Parker, LJ, Thomas Jones all can be had in the later rounds. RBs will always command attention because of the shortage of productive ones. If you start 3 wrs and draft RBs with 3 of your top 4 picks (as some do) then you better be good at picking value in the WR position in later rounds. The waiver wire should not factor in your decision. Who you can get in the later rounds that you feel can be productive starters should.

While I agree that you shouldn't plan for a draft that leaves you weak at any position, I disagree somewhat that the waiver wire should not factor at all into the decision. It depends heavily on the league setup. If the league has relatively small rosters, then more talent will be available through free agent acquisitions. A savvy owner can and should factor that into his decision process to a reasonable degree. For example, when a league shifts from 12 teams to 10 teams, there will be more talent available on waivers if nothing else changed in the league format.I do agree however that I'm not going to expect to get anything better than mediocre production if I'm relying on waiver wire talent in my starting lineup.