Newbie headed into 4th week of NFL DFS seeking guidance (1 Viewer)

[Odach]

Apologies and thanks in advance for trudging through the wall of text that follows!

I'm completely new to DFS...Playing NFL DFS on DraftKings. My ROI so far is -28% with a 32% win rate. I'm having a hard time figuring out if my cash game process/strategy is solid, and I just don't have enough data points to show it, or if I'm just way off base. I'm not concerned with tournaments - my exposure there is low and I know it's a crapshoot anyway. My cash game process is as follows:

• use a couple sites to calculate $/point, and create my player pool using guys that rank high, plus a small handful of other high priced players who just kill it week in week out (Bell, Hopkins, etc)
• I've been creating 5 cash game lineups to spread out amongst 45-50 contests
• I try to avoid having any stacks in my cash lineups
• I try to keep my exposure to my top player at ~50%, and then decreasing exposure for all other players at the same position down to about 10-20%

I did pretty decent in my 1st week (Week 4): 22% ROI, 46% win rate. I played a bunch of $5 and $3 events, and only committed around $50. But I felt like it was mostly luck, not skill/preparation...My exposure was way out of whack (imo).

• lineup/exposure: https://www.dropbox.com/s/do96c4rmc6qvswr/Screenshot%202015-10-23%2009.42.04.png?dl=0

Didn't do well my 2nd week (Week 5): -22% ROI, 30% win rate. I moved down to $2 and $3 events because I read that the cut lines were lower at lower price points, but I also increased my weekly bankroll to around $120 so I had to greatly increase the # of events I was playing in. I didn't do well, but I felt like it was probably just an off week - my team had a bunch of injuries, players put on the bench due to blowing out their opponent, etc. I thought the thought process behind my gameplay was solid.

• lineup/exposure: https://www.dropbox.com/s/2t69xov9g2fx2ep/Screenshot%202015-10-23%2009.43.12.png?dl=0

But then I didn't do well in my 3rd week either (Week 6): -28% ROI, 32% win rate. Note: one major difference here though is that I couldn't play in the beginner events anymore, as I had exhausted my 50 event limit. So now I was playing with the big boys. I did look up every player I was going head-to-head against and made sure to only pick players who didn't have an account on Rotogrinders. A couple of my lineups did real well, but they were the lineups I was least exposed to - just bad luck? Or poor planning on my part?

• lineup/exposure: https://www.dropbox.com/s/gsswxh9pikrujug/Screenshot%202015-10-23%2008.43.01.png?dl=0
• results: https://www.dropbox.com/s/a2mnw5hley43nig/Screenshot%202015-10-21%2000.16.33.png?dl=0

So now I'm not sure what to do...Is my strategy just way off? Or does it just need some minor tweaks? Or should I just keep doing what I'm doing?

Currently I'm considering dropping down to 3 lineups and playing them all equally...Not sure if I should go back to $5 games or stick to $2 or $3 to spread out my exposure to each opponent. Also debating whether all (or 2/3 of) my lineups should be exposed to elite players like Hopkins, Bell, etc.

Sorry again for the wall of text. Any advice is GREATLY appreciated! Thanks for reading!

 

[eaglesfan7]

save your money and get out while you're still a newb. seriously...

 

[NoMercy]

save your money and get out while you're still a newb. seriously...

Indeed. It's a losing proposition given the landscape of sharks feasting on newbies like you. I use to play DFS but decided I would never play again after I sensed something was wrong even before the latest scandals. The lack of ethics involved in DFS is criminal in my opinion. I am much more content playing season-long FFB. Good luck to you if you elect to play...it's your choice...but do make an informed decision doing so...

 

[Odach]

save your money and get out while you're still a newb. seriously...

Indeed. It's a losing proposition given the landscape of sharks feasting on newbies like you. I use to play DFS but decided I would never play again after I sensed something was wrong even before the latest scandals. The lack of ethics involved in DFS is criminal in my opinion. I am much more content playing season-long FFB. Good luck to you if you elect to play...it's your choice...but do make an informed decision doing so...

Haha - well what are you guys still doing here on this forum then?

I've been playing season-long redraft fantasy football for over 10 years, but I've just gotten so fed up with how much of a crapshoot it can be sometimes...Injuries, committees, players falling off the map from one season to the next, secretive coaches, etc....That's why I decided to try DFS - less exposure to that kind of stuff.

In any case, I appreciate your opinions

 

[NoMercy]

Odach, I play in several season-long redrafts but I like to keep informed of the latest regarding the controversy surrounding daily fantasy football. That's it. Good luck to you...I hope you beat some of those sharks!

 

[snellman]

Here is a little advice other than to stay out.

Stick with the 50/50s and double ups. Some will disagree with me, but my ROI has been much better with the 50/50s and double ups than the cash games. Also, stay at the lowest $ possible until you get more comfortable. Read the articles here, they can be helpful.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Here is a little advice other than to stay out.

Stick with the 50/50s and double ups. Some will disagree with me, but my ROI has been much better with the 50/50s and double ups than the cash games. Also, stay at the lowest $ possible until you get more comfortable. Read the articles here, they can be helpful.

I agree. While is looks like you fared better in the H2H in the one week you've shared that data, history has shown me that H2H is the lowest ROI (and the most volatile) amongst the traditional "cash games" (H2H, 50/50, double-up), at least on FD.

I also think you may be trying to corral too many lineups each week. Scale back a bit and just roll out a couple cash lineups. You may take some bruising, but it's part of the learning process. I don't think you can effectively assess your lineup construction after each week if you have that many lineups to try to assess. Build your best 2 lineups, run them out some, then you can realistically critique yourself on Tuesday to help with the next week. It will also get a little less in play so the lumps you take as you are learning aren't quite so painful.

I find the "quit now you can never make money" guys completely off base. If you enjoy the process of building rosters and it increases your enjoyment of the games themselves, then it has value even if you don't make money at it. How much money do guys make watching games at a sports bar? How many guys lose money on season-long fantasy teams (it's funny, everyone always claims to win at those "over the long haul" but by definition 80% of every league loses money)? It's not fundamentally different -- it's money spent on entertainment.

 

[eaglesfan7]

There are guys who commit their life to investing in all these daily fantasy sites making it extremely difficult for us to win. I learned my lesson last season as it all adds up to either making just a tiny bit (not worth it overall) or losing some money. It's like Vegas and the casinos - it's designed for you to lose.

If you like it then continue on but don't get sucked in to the big money games or you will fall behind and always try to catch up. It is definitely gambling.

 

[jandyt]

I would drop down to $1-$2 games if I was you no reason to go higher than that if your a new player with a relatively small bankroll. I play with a small bankroll and I spread it all out over just 1 dollar contests.

I go with 4 cash lineups(2 for each major slate) which is about what you do it appears. I don't worry much about stacks if I really like the players, would only avoid stacks as a tiebreaker between players I rank evenly. Also I tend to be more aggressive with percentage played on players I'm highest on but that increases risk and I would look at how your top plays have done versus your lower rated plays before going that route being you already have a negative ROI.

The other area I really different from you is contests played. I go about 55% 50/50 and doubles, 15% triples, 15% X5, 10% H2H, and 5% GPP. My ROI is best for X5, then X3,X2, and 50/50 all about the same with H2H lagging behind the others. H2H will lag behind for most players with a positive ROI IMO. The problem is if your ROI continues to be negative the exact opposite effect is what you have seen, H2H being your best game. My advice is that your goal is to make money and thus you have to play the game like that's what your planning on doing so I would reduce your H2H and increase your other cash games. Now I would not change it dramatically yet because H2H will limit loses on bad weeks. But I do think you need to play as if your expecting to win not purely to limit loses if over time you continue to lose I would consider moving on from DFS unless the enjoyment you get from it outweighs the cost. Hopefully things turn for you soon. My first year I was up and down a lot before ending up about even. This year I have 6 winning weeks in a row. Now I will have a losing week but I have improved over time. Oh putting some in X3 and X5 will really help ROI on the good weeks.

The key of course is who you pick. For me one big thing is making my own projections. Not because they are better than experts but because it forces me to look more at every possible play. I then look at expert projections for outliners and sometimes reconsider that player.

Good Luck

 

[Odach]

Good stuff guys, thanks. From the feedback so far I think I'll:

• drop down to $1-2 games
• reduce my bankroll from ~$105 for cash back to ~$50-55 while I get my bearings
• shift to 80% 50/50, doublex, x5, etc....20% H2H
• scale back to 2-3 lineups....2 lineups scares me because if one misses at best I'll break even...3 seems nice because if 1 misses I can still finish up

Still got a couple questions:

• should I play the 2-3 lineups equally across all the events?
• should my 2-3 lineups not have any overlap, or should I be ok with putting elite players like Hopkins, Bell, Fitz, etc on more than one lineup? if that's ok, how much overlap is too much overlap?

Thanks again!

 

[jabarony]

My two cents - stay away from multi entry contests. That's where those with insider inf... I mean great skill, can really take advantage of the average, low-bankroll, player.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Good stuff guys, thanks. From the feedback so far I think I'll:

• drop down to $1-2 games
• reduce my bankroll from ~$105 for cash back to ~$50-55 while I get my bearings
• shift to 80% 50/50, doublex, x5, etc....20% H2H
• scale back to 2-3 lineups....2 lineups scares me because if one misses at best I'll break even...3 seems nice because if 1 misses I can still finish up

Still got a couple questions:

• should I play the 2-3 lineups equally across all the events?
• should my 2-3 lineups not have any overlap, or should I be ok with putting elite players like Hopkins, Bell, Fitz, etc on more than one lineup? if that's ok, how much overlap is too much overlap?

Thanks again!

On jandyt's point, I really like the triple-ups too. On FD I've found that the threshold to win them isn't significantly higher than the double-ups. If your cash lineup hits reasonably well, they are a nice way to capture some extra value. I do well on quintuple-ups relatively speaking -- I don't win as often as on the triple-ups, but my ROI is a little higher.

My suggestion is to build your best lineup before even considering your other lineup(s). Spend the most time on it and track your decision-making on it. Once you have it, then turn your attention to your other lineup(s). Remember, you want to be able to critique your decision-making after the fact. If you don't exactly remember what went into the decision to roster one guy over another, then it gets really tough to critique. As far as allocation, I let mine vary depending on my conviction about each of my lineups. If I really like my #1, I might go 60-65% on it with the remaining balance divvied up amongst my other lineups. If I'm not completely sold on it, or if I have other lineups I like almost as much, I might only go 40% on it.

As far as the mechanics of it all, on Tuesday I determine what I want to invest for the week in my cash games. I then go out and start grabbing spots in the cash contests I want. Last year the cheap FD cash games would dry-up late in the week so I wanted to make sure I had all my slots. This year that hasn't been a problem, but it helps me with my money management anyway -- get my cash action out and don't add to it later. There have been some posts suggesting that cash games that open and fill late have slightly lower minimum winning scores, but I don't have any data on it myself. Regardless, as the week rolls on I home in on my #1 lineup, enter it into 1 of my double-ups, then turn towards my #2 lineup. I do that until I have my lineups entered into 1 double-up each. Obviously you have to watch for injuries and tweak accordingly as you get into the weekend. Some time on Saturday or Sunday morning, I figure out where I want my risk for each lineup and export them to the appropriate contests.

 

[jandyt]

Good stuff guys, thanks. From the feedback so far I think I'll:

• drop down to $1-2 games
• reduce my bankroll from ~$105 for cash back to ~$50-55 while I get my bearings
• shift to 80% 50/50, doublex, x5, etc....20% H2H
• scale back to 2-3 lineups....2 lineups scares me because if one misses at best I'll break even...3 seems nice because if 1 misses I can still finish up

Still got a couple questions:

• should I play the 2-3 lineups equally across all the events?
• should my 2-3 lineups not have any overlap, or should I be ok with putting elite players like Hopkins, Bell, Fitz, etc on more than one lineup? if that's ok, how much overlap is too much overlap?

Thanks again!

I would just stick to the 2 main slates, thurs-mon and sun-mon, and not bother with the smaller slates. I tend to put action pretty even across the 2 slates but if you have a strong feeling about Thursday slate you might favor one slate over the other in a given week. I also agree with the guy who said avoid multi entry contest. I would stick to single entry for cash as much as possible. I would also go with the largest single entry contest available for each game type.

As for overlap I think that depends how strongly you feel about the player and your risk aversion. For me if my projections really are high on a certain player I may have him in close to 100% of lineups but for other 50% may be the ceiling. I don't feel there is one right answer for everyone.

 

[Odach]

Thanks for the follow up guys. Makes sense - my exposure and overlap really should depend on my confidence level.

I actually only play the Sunday - Monday slate...I'm too busy with work to have a lineup prepared for the slate that starts on Thursday. I typically do all my research Tues-Sat morn, then spend the rest of Saturday creating my lineups. Nice thing is I don't have to spend much time tweaking due to injuries and other events that happen during the week. Anyone who is iffy on Saturday I usually avoid...Unless on Sunday morning I hear that someone who was questionable/doubtful has been upgraded, then I try to slot them in to take advantage of players who don't tweak Sunday morning.

 

[Bri]

(I don't know if Fanduel has them) Play quarter games at Draft Kings.

Use the search and adjust to find them.

Note if you click (center, header of sorts of the possible contests) on the game times you can limit which NFL games' players are involved

Adjust to .25 and .25

Next clear out the money part to free and 1000+ as it started, then type single in the search box for single entry.

The quarter stuff-try your theories your guesses wayyyy more comfortably than with big $.

The single entry is where you should be like OK this is gonna work; this is my best lineup.

Both of these can fill up early but it's rather unpredictable. I like to go in midweek, pick first guys my mouse clicks on and then go adjust lineup at my leisure. When you click reserve, there's a headsup notification with the bell icon at the top but for whatever reason I prefer the junk lineup way. If you want to enter the quarter stuff, having a junk lineup can help to just click 1 more 1 more 1 more...

To change all ya do is click lineups and the X next to a single player. That'll cue a new screen to change all of them on that team.

 

[Bri]

Thanks for the follow up guys. Makes sense - my exposure and overlap really should depend on my confidence level.

I actually only play the Sunday - Monday slate...I'm too busy with work to have a lineup prepared for the slate that starts on Thursday. I typically do all my research Tues-Sat morn, then spend the rest of Saturday creating my lineups. Nice thing is I don't have to spend much time tweaking due to injuries and other events that happen during the week. Anyone who is iffy on Saturday I usually avoid...Unless on Sunday morning I hear that someone who was questionable/doubtful has been upgraded, then I try to slot them in to take advantage of players who don't tweak Sunday morning.

Very little changes for thursday.

It sounds off but whomever is out Sunday is usually out Thursday and whomever got hurt Sunday usually won't play. If you figure medical scans Monday, you're sort of asking a lot for a medical change in 3 days. You could play thursday and only do a quick look at the news to see if you need to change anything before the game.

Remember it's not Sunday with up to 10 guys you're scanning the news for-at most ya probably have to check for 2 or 3.

I like the low % of people that play "primetime" Sunday night Monday night OR monday night thursday night. Each week there seems to be one of these where either the number of participants are low or there are a bunch of newbies with surprisingly low scores.

I only touch the thursday-sunday games if I'm "sure" thursday will have a high scorer. IIRC it was Hopkins one week. I think many people blow off thursday so if I can scoop up a high score then I'll jump in. Otherwise, my mind needs to decompress friday and saturday and I don't want the thurs-sun contests.

Hope this helps

 

[jandyt]

(I don't know if Fanduel has them) Play quarter games at Draft Kings.

Use the search and adjust to find them.

Note if you click (center, header of sorts of the possible contests) on the game times you can limit which NFL games' players are involved

Adjust to .25 and .25

Next clear out the money part to free and 1000+ as it started, then type single in the search box for single entry.

The quarter stuff-try your theories your guesses wayyyy more comfortably than with big $.

The single entry is where you should be like OK this is gonna work; this is my best lineup.

Both of these can fill up early but it's rather unpredictable. I like to go in midweek, pick first guys my mouse clicks on and then go adjust lineup at my leisure. When you click reserve, there's a headsup notification with the bell icon at the top but for whatever reason I prefer the junk lineup way. If you want to enter the quarter stuff, having a junk lineup can help to just click 1 more 1 more 1 more...

To change all ya do is click lineups and the X next to a single player. That'll cue a new screen to change all of them on that team.

If to save money you want to try out lineups on quarter games that's fine but just realize the rake is higher for these cheap games.

For example

500 dollar pay out 1$ league has 575 entries or 575 dollars of fees for 500 in prizes

500 dollar pay out 25 cent has 2350 entries or 587.50 in fees for the 500 prize

 

[Bri]

(I don't know if Fanduel has them) Play quarter games at Draft Kings.

Use the search and adjust to find them.

Note if you click (center, header of sorts of the possible contests) on the game times you can limit which NFL games' players are involved

Adjust to .25 and .25

Next clear out the money part to free and 1000+ as it started, then type single in the search box for single entry.

The quarter stuff-try your theories your guesses wayyyy more comfortably than with big $.

The single entry is where you should be like OK this is gonna work; this is my best lineup.

Both of these can fill up early but it's rather unpredictable. I like to go in midweek, pick first guys my mouse clicks on and then go adjust lineup at my leisure. When you click reserve, there's a headsup notification with the bell icon at the top but for whatever reason I prefer the junk lineup way. If you want to enter the quarter stuff, having a junk lineup can help to just click 1 more 1 more 1 more...

To change all ya do is click lineups and the X next to a single player. That'll cue a new screen to change all of them on that team.

If to save money you want to try out lineups on quarter games that's fine but just realize the rake is higher for these cheap games.

For example

500 dollar pay out 1$ league has 575 entries or 575 dollars of fees for 500 in prizes

500 dollar pay out 25 cent has 2350 entries or 587.50 in fees for the 500 prize

True. I was thinking him trying and working out a system would be better in quarter games.

Ya gotta regularly get to 200-220 points or 175 for smaller contests to feel like you've got a handle on things.

 

[Odach]

In case anyone was wondering how I did - click here

Reducing my cash lineups to just 3 really helped it seems. I might even bump it down to 2 this week and test that out....

The triple ups really killed me - reason why I did so poorly was that most of the triple ups were played by my 2nd and 3rd lineups - I think only 2 or 3 of those events were played by my 1st lineup...Should I be playing the higher multiplier events with my tournament lineup instead of my cash lineups since only 20-30% of the top spots pay out?

 

[BassNBrew]

In case anyone was wondering how I did - click here

Reducing my cash lineups to just 3 really helped it seems. I might even bump it down to 2 this week and test that out....

The triple ups really killed me - reason why I did so poorly was that most of the triple ups were played by my 2nd and 3rd lineups - I think only 2 or 3 of those events were played by my 1st lineup...Should I be playing the higher multiplier events with my tournament lineup instead of my cash lineups since only 20-30% of the top spots pay out?

Construct a tournament style lineup with a stack, just make it a solid stack like River to Allen, not a crazy gpp stack like Newton to Brown.

 

[Odach]

Construct a tournament style lineup with a stack, just make it a solid stack like River to Allen, not a crazy gpp stack like Newton to Brown.

Got it...So somewhere between a cash lineup and a big GPP lineup...For ~20 multiplier events, how many lineups do you recommend? 2?

I'm considering drastically pulling back on my GPP lineups as well...Maybe just 2 instead of 5. I did 5 because that's the max # of entries....Thoughts? And if I scale back to 2, should I use all 5 entries on those 2, or just stick to 2 entries?

Thanks!

 

[jandyt]

In case anyone was wondering how I did - click here

Reducing my cash lineups to just 3 really helped it seems. I might even bump it down to 2 this week and test that out....

The triple ups really killed me - reason why I did so poorly was that most of the triple ups were played by my 2nd and 3rd lineups - I think only 2 or 3 of those events were played by my 1st lineup...Should I be playing the higher multiplier events with my tournament lineup instead of my cash lineups since only 20-30% of the top spots pay out?

I have had very good luck with using my cash lineups to play X3 and X5 but particularly X5 does play more like a GPP so I can see shifting to safe GPP type lineup but that's just not what I do. I am basically taking advantage of strong cash game lineups to gain extra ROI by adding X3 and X5 play which doesn't happen if I use a different lineup for those games. Again this is matter of style and preference so I am not saying my way is better just that it has worked well for me.

I would evenly split my play in each game type over the lineups you are using for it. That way you don't do poorly in one game, X3, because it was over exposed to a weaker performing lineup(s). Now if you feel really strongly about one lineup then I can see changing that up. But for me the players I feel most strongly about tend to be in almost all lineups so I don't favor one lineup over another as I have them all projected fairly evenly.

 

[BassNBrew]

Construct a tournament style lineup with a stack, just make it a solid stack like River to Allen, not a crazy gpp stack like Newton to Brown.

Got it...So somewhere between a cash lineup and a big GPP lineup...For ~20 multiplier events, how many lineups do you recommend? 2?

I'm considering drastically pulling back on my GPP lineups as well...Maybe just 2 instead of 5. I did 5 because that's the max # of entries....Thoughts? And if I scale back to 2, should I use all 5 entries on those 2, or just stick to 2 entries?

Thanks!

I like more lineups rathe than fewer, especially on FD where you have to use a kicker. I'm seeing huge ownership numbers this year (Gurley, Freeman, etc). When you start talking 3x, 4x, you are looking at K and D being the difference maker. I you feel really good about a cash lineup, i might run 4 versions of it using two different Ds and Ks with the same base players.

 

[Odach]

I have had very good luck with using my cash lineups to play X3 and X5 but particularly X5 does play more like a GPP so I can see shifting to safe GPP type lineup but that's just not what I do. I am basically taking advantage of strong cash game lineups to gain extra ROI by adding X3 and X5 play which doesn't happen if I use a different lineup for those games. Again this is matter of style and preference so I am not saying my way is better just that it has worked well for me.

I would evenly split my play in each game type over the lineups you are using for it. That way you don't do poorly in one game, X3, because it was over exposed to a weaker performing lineup(s). Now if you feel really strongly about one lineup then I can see changing that up. But for me the players I feel most strongly about tend to be in almost all lineups so I don't favor one lineup over another as I have them all projected fairly evenly.

good point re: why you choose to use cash lineups in the multipliers....

and yeah, I should have been more mindful about how I was splitting my lineups across each game type....wish the DK interface was a little better for those running so many lineups and so many events...it's good, but could be a lot better.

i am also thinking of going with a bit more overlap this week in my cash lineups so I have fewer players with just 20-30% exposure...

I like more lineups rathe than fewer, especially on FD where you have to use a kicker. I'm seeing huge ownership numbers this year (Gurley, Freeman, etc). When you start talking 3x, 4x, you are looking at K and D being the difference maker. I you feel really good about a cash lineup, i might run 4 versions of it using two different Ds and Ks with the same base players.

hmm...maybe i'll stick to 5 lineups and just reduce the # of stacks...instead of 5 stacks, go with 2 I feel strongly about and just vary the support players....