Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
New York Bozo!
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NFC Championship GB@Seattle (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter seahawk 17
- Start date
smackdaddies
Footballguy
I will be rooting for the Pack but in all honesty I do see Seattle covering the spread. It's not that the Pack can't win, I just think they won't. To win the Pack D will have to do better than they did against Dallas, and they played a great game against Dallas
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Willy
Footballguy
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jurb26
Footballguy
Sure, anything can happen but GB isn't Dal. Dal averages 30 yds more per game rushing than GB. This game is in Rodgers hands to win.
smackdaddies
Footballguy
I am allready on record picking Seattle to cover. None the less, I think the Pack can win if....
1) Obviously Rodgers has to hold up. He finished the Dallas game 10 for 10 with 2 tds, so assuming that....
2) O line has to hold up - they did a great job against Dallas. Of course, Dallas is no Seattle...
3) Lacy's asthma cant act up. Lacy was killing Dallas - over 5 yards a carry average, just gashing them, looked far better than Murry did. But he disapeared for much of the game because of the cold impacting his asthma.
4) Packer D has to limit Seattle rush - both Wilson and the Beast. Not stop them - just contain them. Packers D has played well the second half of the season - they will have to be great.
Can all of this happen? Yes.
Will it happen? Well, thats the reason they play the games. If I was betting I would take Seattle to cover the points
1) Obviously Rodgers has to hold up. He finished the Dallas game 10 for 10 with 2 tds, so assuming that....
2) O line has to hold up - they did a great job against Dallas. Of course, Dallas is no Seattle...
3) Lacy's asthma cant act up. Lacy was killing Dallas - over 5 yards a carry average, just gashing them, looked far better than Murry did. But he disapeared for much of the game because of the cold impacting his asthma.
4) Packer D has to limit Seattle rush - both Wilson and the Beast. Not stop them - just contain them. Packers D has played well the second half of the season - they will have to be great.
Can all of this happen? Yes.
Will it happen? Well, thats the reason they play the games. If I was betting I would take Seattle to cover the points
smackdaddies
Footballguy
Lacy outperformed DeMarco over the weekend - much better avg per carry, and would of beaten him except his asthma kicked up and they put in Starks and Cobb.
Neofight
Footballguy
The game you mentioned was actually week 6, when Wagner played with a turf toe (and missed parts of the game). Since his return, their run D has played as well (at times better than) as the pass D. During that time they've let two teams go for more than 100 yards, and both of those teams had a running QB who made the difference.
Seattle will look to shut the run game down and make Rodgers move around. A big key will be the health of Byron Maxwell. If he is 100% it will be a big boost in covering those three WR's. With Simon and Lane covering two of Nelson, Cobb and Adams the Pack have a punchers chance.
Seattle 31
Green Bay 20
Seattle will look to shut the run game down and make Rodgers move around. A big key will be the health of Byron Maxwell. If he is 100% it will be a big boost in covering those three WR's. With Simon and Lane covering two of Nelson, Cobb and Adams the Pack have a punchers chance.
Seattle 31
Green Bay 20
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Exactly. If Rodgers plays against SEA like he did in the 2nd half vs Dallas, the Packers have a very real chance to win this game. If he plays like he did in the first half, they have no shot.
I think losing Richardson hurts the Seahawks. The Packers have played pretty solid run D in the 2nd half of the season. They gave up a ton to Murray because they spent the whole game doubling Dez. Now they don't have to worry about anybody taking the top off of the defense. They will add the safety to the box in an effort to contain Wilson and Lynch. It will help a lot.
I know its been mentioned already in this thread, but the Packer offensive line is playing MUCH better now than they were at the beginning of the season. If Rodgers can at least slide step around some rushers in the pocket, he will hurt the Seahawks secondary. I know the Seattle secondary is far superior to Dallas, but the Packers have a lot of weapons that create big plays. A missed tackle here or there can turn into an instant TD.
Having said that, I agree that the Seahawks are the clear favorites to win.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Actually the Packers played Murray very well for most of the game, holding him substantially in check and below his season average until he busted them in the late in the second half, mostly on two plays, salvaging his yards per carry average in the process. (Randal also had a substantial run as I recall). Still, that is the fate of teams facing big or power backs. The second half often sees those backs break out. Now does Seattle have such a back, I forget.
I don't see Seattle losing Richardson as a substantial loss, in and of itself, but it does represent some cumulative loss. having let Harvin go, and now with Richardson out perhaps they are getting a little thin at W.R. I don't really know. Perhaps a Seahawks fan can chime in.
Recent games certainly seem to indicate that Seattle has reason to have quiet confidence even against a healthy Packers team and we do not have that with Rodgers hobbled. Of course quiet confidence often becomes loud confidence in the hands of some. Ideally it would not go even further than that, but fans will be fans.
As a Packer fan I admit to trepidation going into Seattle with a hobbled Rodgers. The Packers will be facing a very resourceful offense, an impressive defense, a noisy communication environment, against a team with one more day rest, and after the Packers having to have traveled to get to that environment where offense so often goes to die. Certainly it will be a challenge.
I don't see Seattle losing Richardson as a substantial loss, in and of itself, but it does represent some cumulative loss. having let Harvin go, and now with Richardson out perhaps they are getting a little thin at W.R. I don't really know. Perhaps a Seahawks fan can chime in.
Recent games certainly seem to indicate that Seattle has reason to have quiet confidence even against a healthy Packers team and we do not have that with Rodgers hobbled. Of course quiet confidence often becomes loud confidence in the hands of some. Ideally it would not go even further than that, but fans will be fans.
As a Packer fan I admit to trepidation going into Seattle with a hobbled Rodgers. The Packers will be facing a very resourceful offense, an impressive defense, a noisy communication environment, against a team with one more day rest, and after the Packers having to have traveled to get to that environment where offense so often goes to die. Certainly it will be a challenge.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
That was kind of my point. No Harvin, no Richardson. No real deep threat. Packer CBs should fare well in this matchup, and will definitely be asked to handle all of them 1 on 1. For the Packers defense it will come down to limiting Seattle's run game and not giving up plays to Luke Willson.
MarcO
Footballguy
Lacy won't be able to run on Seattle, he's too slow and too much of a straight line runner. It'll come down to whether the Seahawks can matchup 1v1 with the 3 GB WRs and get pressure on Rodgers. I don't put a whole lot of stock into what happened week 1, I don't think they try the same strategy as week 1. IMO, if the Packers win, they win by going straight at Seattle through the air.
Dinkle Heimer
Footballguy
No disrespect to Packers; but I'm guessing only Packer fans are really thinking this. I do think the Packers can win and represent a challenge to Seattle; but this isn't the clash of titans we saw last year when San Francisco and Seattle were clearly the cream of the crop.
This is a key point. That first game, they didn't throw Sherman's way the entire game. That was a failed strategy that made their offense somewhat one dimensional. Now, maybe they throw Sherman's way this game and he gets a couple of picks. But, I imagine you will see a different strategy this game.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
I agree that Lacy's strength, the stretch running play, does not match up well with a defense like Seattle which pursues unusually well. I do note that the Packers have slowly been incorporating more delays and traps the second half of the season in their run game, but Seattle does not seem to over pursue nor often to leave their assignments, so they, to me, don't seem vulnerable to the run. What Dallas did to them weeks ago happened before they had fully reincorporated Bobby Wagner back into their defense, in my mind at least.
The Carolina game did offer some hope through about the mid point of the third quarter, but that seems to be Seattle's M.O. They are willing to be patient, play field position, take points when they are available, and wait for frustrated offenses to eventually gamble and lose.
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Mr.Pack
Footballguy
Card Trader
Footballguy
I would love to see GB win, but Seattle is the best team in football and it's not close. A healthy Cards team next year COULD challenge them, but they would have to lose a few pieces to not be the best even then.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Why could it change, well the Packers no longer have Derek, "Swinging Gate" Sherrod even on their roster, so that may help. Seattle could also be overconfident, after all they have some reason to be, and overconfidence can be a killer. Also Peppers is fully integrated into the Packer's defense, Hawk is playing much less, and Mathews move inside has shorn up the whole unit. That, coupled with Seattle having no real deep threat left on offense could provide some hope.
My take, Seattle would be rightfully favored over the Packers even were Rodgers healthy. Reviewing the stats from the first game confirms this. Still, with the Packer's weapons they have a puncher's chance, and I will certainly be rooting for them.
smackdaddies
Footballguy
Dinkle Heimer said:
cstu
Footballguy
I expect the Seahawks win this but here are recent championship games where a top defense lost at home to an average defense:
- 2011 Giants (400 points allowed) @ 49ers (229 points allowed) *Eli 32/58 for 316/2/0
- 2007 Giants (351 points allowed) @ Packers (291 points allowed) *Giants RB's ran 37 times
- 1999 Titans (324 points allowed) @ Jaguars (217 points allowed) *Music City Miracle
Compared to this matchup:
2014 Packers (348 points allowed) @ Seahawks (254 points allowed)
The Packers have the best offense (400 points scored) of those teams - 11 Giants (394), 07 Giants (373), Titans (393).
- 2011 Giants (400 points allowed) @ 49ers (229 points allowed) *Eli 32/58 for 316/2/0
- 2007 Giants (351 points allowed) @ Packers (291 points allowed) *Giants RB's ran 37 times
- 1999 Titans (324 points allowed) @ Jaguars (217 points allowed) *Music City Miracle
Compared to this matchup:
2014 Packers (348 points allowed) @ Seahawks (254 points allowed)
The Packers have the best offense (400 points scored) of those teams - 11 Giants (394), 07 Giants (373), Titans (393).
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Hooper31
Footballguy
Richardson has been getting more playing time, but he's hasn't been the deep threat that they hoped he might be. He's caught one ball over the top this season (A beautiful high point catch in week 17 against the Rams. Perhaps the play of that game). Kearse has been the more dependable deep WR. I'm glad to see that Norwood will get another chance this coming week, but yes, Seattle is thinner at WR than any other position on the team now with the loss of Richardson IMO.Ditkaless Wonders said:
Sabertooth
Footballguy
How exactly was San Fran better last year than Green Bay is this year? Their records are identical. Both only lost two games after week 4 (New Orleans incidentally beat the 49ers last year and the Packers this year). Both lost to the Seahawks early in the year and the 49ers beat them the second matchup. I'd say that's a very good comparison actually.Dinkle Heimer said:
Dark Matter
Footballguy
Luke Willson=Speed
Pack will have to play perfect and get some breaks to win this one. If Russell gets lost on the way to the game, that would help. Alot.
Go Pack Go!
Pack will have to play perfect and get some breaks to win this one. If Russell gets lost on the way to the game, that would help. Alot.
Go Pack Go!
It could certainly happen, but Rodgers is the most accurate passer in the game. I expect him to lead the receiver one way or another (or throw behind him) if they do go at Sherman, so it's either incomplete or the WR has a chance to catch it. Rodgers has 5 interceptions this year and all but one were tipped by the WR to a defender (not his fault). He just doesn't throw it to the defense. They'll probably toss some back shoulder/timing throws to Sherman... those are the only ones I've seen QBs complete against him.MikeApf said:
Carolina had some success with crossing routes - could be a big day for Cobb.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
I see where Pete Carrol expects Max Unger to be healthy for the game, and for Byron Maxwell to be fine as well. No chinks in the armor.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
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Hooper31
Footballguy
I read differently on Maxwell. His pneumonia-like breathing issues may or may not improve. From what I understand this is something he has struggled with in the past. I'm getting this from reading some twitter feeds of local sports guys. The word I keep seeing on Maxwell is "hopeful". This could be a big story. Tharold Simon got torched last week against the Panthers.
I'm hopeful that Simon develops. I think they see him as another Browner-type player. He's big, physical, and generally tackles well. As long as he's not getting torched over the top I think they're okay with his play, but last week he got burned for 6 over the top. That's a sin in the book of PC.
EDIT: To add LINK for story talking about Maxwell's health.
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Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Always difficult to know whether Coaches are just presenting a "front" to the other team. if Maxwell is substantially limited that could present a challenge. Frankly I think Unger is the more important cog. He really seems to coordinate that line beautifully. he is the launching pad for many of Lynch's great inside runs. Lynch as a one cut runner on the stretch is difficult enough. Lynch on quick hitters up the gut is what seems to wear teams down.
Longtucky Lemmings
Footballguy
Still several days out but the forecast now for Sunday is low 50s, 80% chance of rain, up to a quarter inch.
How do you all see moderate to heavy rain effecting either team?
How do you all see moderate to heavy rain effecting either team?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Definitely helps Green Bay.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
When was the last time a 12-4 team was a 7 point dog?
Anyone who thinks GB has no shot is fooling themselves. I give them roughly a 30% chance of winning. When you have Rodgers, Cobb and Nelson along with the currnet NFL rules you have a shot vs anyone, even the LOB. I think GB will be able to move the ball and score vs Seattle. The issue for them will be stopping Lynch and a scrambling Wilson. Inclement weather would favor Seattle IMO.
biju
Footballguy
Assuming these were linked, I can't see how rain helps GB if they are to rely on the passing game. It almost always helps the better running team and that is Seattle.
biju
Footballguy
I completely agree. Hell, it might be a better chance than 30% for that matter. I don't know why anyone would discount Rodgers, even if he isn't 100%.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
The reason why a lot of people are not giving the Packers are a shot is because the fact that the Packers have looked very bad against teams with Seattle's makeup over the last few years. The 49er's have torched the Packers 2 or 3 times during that time and the Seahawks have done it once, Buffalo didn't torch them, but gave them all kinds of trouble. Add in the home field advantage and a gimpy Rodgers and it isn't hard to see why a lot of people don't think this game will be close. It doesn't mean they are right, but they have legit reasons to believe it.
Dinkle Heimer
Footballguy
And they looked to be a different team on the road this year no matter their competition ...a 500 team with a healthy Rodgers with two 3-point wins against Vikings and Dolphins (granted the Dolphins aren't a 'bad' team).
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Of course they have a shot. When you have the best QB in the league and you win 13 games, you are pretty damn good.
And for those saying SF and Seattle were clearly the cream of the crop lat year, they forget Denver was the favorite in the Super Bowl. Underdogs have won the lat three Super Bowls in fact, and five of the last seven.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yes they are linked. I'm not sure it almost always helps the better rushing team. I'm also not sure Seattle is the better rushing team. Green Bay runs whenever they want to run on anyone they want to run on. At least they did for the last month or so. Lacy hung 100 on Detroit who has a better rush defense than Seattle does. They are going to move the ball on the ground. So is Seattle.
No, this game is going to come down to how the Packers defense can perform on 3rd downs. It always does. If they can get off the field on reasonable plays like 3rd and 8 or whatever, they will win this game. If they can't they won't. Seattle's offense is not as good as Green Bay's but their defense is better than Green Bay's.
Looking forward to this one for sure. I think Green Bay has a shot. Does anyone know when the last time a 12-4 team was such an underdog?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Apparently Lacy had an asthma attack in the 2nd quarter against Dallas. I was wondering if he had gotten his head dinged or something when it was all Starks for a little while. Cold an wet is good for asthma right?
Dinkle Heimer
Footballguy
Detroit was ranked 1st in run defense...Seattle was 3rd. Detroit "has a better rush defense." Okay...I guess that's fair..even though it's close and we know Seattle's run D improved in the last half of the season.
Seattle was number 1 in run offense....Green Bay was 11th. You aren't sure "Seattle is the better rushing team."
Alright then.
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proninja
Footballguy
The public overvalues offense. I'm pretty convinced that SF would have wiped the floor with Denver last year, and were pretty clearly the 2nd best team in the league.
jurb26
Footballguy
How'd that work out for them vs. Balt?
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