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NFC RB PROJECTED CARRIES (1 Viewer)

BustedKnuckles

Footballguy
http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/conten...articleid=28694

NFC Projected Carries

During a relatively quiet week of training camp news, we decided to give you some advanced draft prep for today's Dose. We will look at projected carries across the NFC. The AFC will come on Tuesday, after your regularly scheduled dosage on Monday. Enjoy the weekend and check out my live blog of NBC's Sunday Night game.

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Running backs don't have to play well to be valuable. They just have to get the ball enough.

Rudi Johnson is a great example from last season. Rudi averaged a mediocre 3.8 yards-per-carry on the season, and didn't help much in the passing game. The Bengals finished with their lowest yards-per-carry average in franchise history, but it didn't substantially affect his fantasy owners. Rudi still carried the ball 341 times, got his 1,300 yards and 12 scores, and put up top-ten fantasy production for the third straight year.

He lost half-a-yard per carry, which is significant in real football, but was relatively minor in fantasy football because Rudi consistently gets the ball. (Now Rudi better turn that trend around this year or risk losing touches, but that's another article).

Projected Carries thus becomes one of the most important considerations when building your rankings. That's how I start my projections each offseason – estimate how much the team will run, then divvy up the carries. That's what we'll do in this article.

We have included the average number of carries from running backs for each NFC coach/coordinator combination at their current coaching stop as a guide. And, of course, for complete projections, and updated cheat sheets on all these backs until Week, buy our draft guide.

Arizona Cardinals

Coach: Ken Whisenhunt, Average Rushers/Year: N/A

Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 425

When Whisenhunt coordinated the Steelers with a second-year quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger), his backs ran 500 times. But the rest of the Cardinals aren't nearly as good as the Super Bowl champion Steelers, so they won't play with the lead as much.

Edgerrin James: 290

Marcel Shipp: 100

J.J. Arrington: 35

Edgerrin James still has a chance to be a high volume runner, but we expect Whisenhunt to get Marcel Shipp and J.J. Arrington more involved this year. The Arizona papers say Shipp is geared up to take goal-line snaps. James is also overdue to get hurt, but he's been that way for a while.

Atlanta Falcons

Coach: Bobby Petrino, Average Rushes/Year: N/A

Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 380

The Falcons were one of the most run-heavy teams in the league under Jim Mora, but Bobby Petrino figures to be more balanced. My concern is that Joey Harrington will be so poor, the team won't have a chance to run often.

Jerious Norwood: 225

Warrick Dunn: 110

Jason Snelling: 45

Dunn's back surgery opens the door for Norwood to be a lead back. But Norwood is hardly a pounding running back and struggled with minor injuries in the past. He should get enough work to be very good in fantasy leagues if he maintains a high average, and possibly great if his teammates help. Dunn should slide into a third down role.

Carolina Panthers

Coach John Fox, Average Rushes/Year: 428

Projected Rushing Attempts: 415

Carolina likes to run, even when they aren't very good at it. Former Patriots assistant Jeff Davidson may pass more than his predecessor Dan Henning, but they should remain a run-heavy team.

DeAngelo Williams: 200

DeShaun Foster: 160

Eric Shelton: 30

Nick Goings: 25

It's a mystery how Carolina will use Williams this year after he received inconsistent touches last season. But he's more talented and versatile than Foster, so we look for Williams to pass him before long. We also project Williams to get 20 more catches than Foster, so their values are not that close. It will be interesting to see if Shelton gets out of the doghouse with Henning gone. The early indications are no.

Chicago Bears

Coach: Lovie Smith, Average Rushes/Year: 432

Projected Rushing Attempts: 450

Lovie Smith has averaged over 470 rushing attempts from his running backs the last two years, which is more indicative of how Chicago should look this season with a solid team coming back.

Cedric Benson: 310

Adrian Peterson: 95

Garrett Wolfe: 45

It's hard to keep Benson down in projections, no matter how much we have concerns about his consistency. Only durability issues keep him from a higher projection. Benson, like Rudi Johnson last year, is one of those players that may not have to play well to be quite valuable in fantasy leagues. Since the Bears run so much (and pass to their backs), Adrian Peterson is a great sleeper in drafts if he clearly wins the backup/third-down job over Garrett Wolfe. It's looking that way early in camp.

Dallas Cowboys

Coach: Wade Phillips, Average Rushes/Year: N/A

Projected Rushing Attempts: 400

Wade Phillips skewed heavily towards the run in Buffalo, but was balanced at his other head coaching stops. That indicates he'll go with what the personnel dictates, so look for more balance in Dallas.

Julius Jones: 230

Marion Barber: 160

Assorted Flotsam: 10

The Cowboys are very difficult to project, but Jones is holding down the starting job for now. That means he should get significantly more carries, and may be undervalued in fantasy leagues, at least in relation to Barber. Since Barber will play more on third downs, their touches will inch closer. Last year, Jones had 276 touches, Barber had 158.

Detroit Lions

Coach: Rod Marinelli, Average Rushes/Year: 270

Projected Rushing Attempts: 325

This is a Mike Martz offense. And Mike Martz offenses aren't going to run very often unless they have a big lead, which the Lions rarely do. Detroit should run more this season, but they will still be among the league trailers in rushing attempts.

Tatum Bell: 125

Kevin Jones: 120

T.J. Duckett: 60

Brian Calhoun: 20

The paucity of attempts and the uncertain situation in Detroit makes Jones and Bell shaky fantasy picks. Jones will earn most of the work when he's fully healthy, but there's no telling when that will be. The Lions will probably ease him back into the mix. The receiving numbers will help the Lions' values, but not enough.

Green Bay Packers

Coach: Mike McCarthy, Average Carries/Year: 396

Projected Rushing Attempts: 375

Green Bay was around the league average for attempts with Ahman Green. That number could drop slightly because of the shaky talent currently in the backfield.

Brandon Jackson: 170

Vernand Morency: 130

Assorted Flotsam: 75

We have been high on Jackson throughout the offseason because of his opportunity. With Vernand Morency's knee hurting, Jackson is getting all the first-team reps. The early practice reports have been mixed, and there are serious doubts whether Jackson can handle a big role. We've adjusted during camp, and given more carries to whoever emerges from the P.J. Pope/Noah Herron/Dexter Wynn battle royale. Wynn has the most upside of that group, and Jackson has the best chance to emerge overall, but this looks like a committee waiting to happen.

Minnesota Vikings

Coach: Brad Childress, Average Rushes/Year: 393

Projected Rushing Attempts: 375

Brad Childress leans more towards the run than his mentor Andy Reid and this team is geared up for a high percentage of carries because of their offensive line. Tarvaris Jackson threatens to limit the overall carries if he can't move the chains.

Adrian Peterson: 220

Chester Taylor: 150

Mewelde Moore: 25

Minnesota's situation is not unlike Indianapolis' last season, except Adrian Peterson is far more talented than Joseph Addai. Peterson may start on the bench and give way to Taylor on passing downs, but he should be the dominant half of this committee before long. Peterson should get the ball in the red zone. I suspect the split will be close enough to frustrate fantasy owners.

New Orleans Saints

Coach: Sean Payton, Average Rushes/Year: 427

Projected Rushing Attempts: 405

Sean Payton is a pass-first coach, so the Saints' overall carries could drop if this season isn't as magically delicious. Reggie Bush is better insulated as a fantasy option than Deuce McAllister because half of his value comes on passing downs.

Reggie Bush: 175

Deuce McAllister: 215

Aaron Stecker/Antonio Pittman: 25

Bush learned how to run against NFL defenses during the middle of last season. His role is likely to grow this season, and it has to come at the expense of someone. Deuce's carries are likely to go down. When you factor in Bush's receiving yards, he's easily more valuable.

New York Giants

Coach: Tom Coughlin, Average Rushes/Year: 418

Projected Rushing Attempts: 425

Tom Coughlin's Giants teams run more than average, especially the last two years when Eli Manning has been a passable quarterback. That trend should continue even with Tiki Barber gone.

Brandon Jacobs: 275

Reuben Droughns: 100

Ahmad Bradshaw: 50

Jacobs will probably beat these projected carries if he can hold up as a starting running back for the first time. There aren't many running backs in NFL history his size that have, but there aren't many running backs his size in NFL history period. Droughns isn't going to get the committee-like carries some are expecting, and rookie Bradshaw may play a role on third downs.

Philadelphia Eagles

Coach: Andy Reid, Average Rushes/Year: 334

Projected Rushing Attempts: 350

Andy Reid ran more last season after Donovan McNabb was hurt. He says he wants to balance the offense better, but Andy Reid often talks dreamily of the running game in the summer, only to pass 35 times after halftime in November. His version of "balance" will still be pass-heavy.

Brian Westbrook: 225

Tony Hunt: 65

Correll Buckhalter: 60

Reid's passing proclivity doesn't affect Brian Westbrook, similar to Reggie Bush. We could see Westbrook's rushing attempts declining slightly, but his receiving numbers will remain elite. Correll Buckhalter and rookie Tony Hunt will be scrounging for scraps.

San Francisco 49ers

Coach: Mike Nolan, Average Rushes/Year: 373

Projected Rushing Attempts: 410

The 49ers have run the ball quite a bit under Mike Nolan considering how poor their passing offense has been. If the 49ers are average overall on offense, they should get above the league average in attempts.

Frank Gore: 330

Michael Robinson: 60

Maurice Hicks: 20

Gore is going to be a high-volume runner if he stays healthy. This is the biggest talent gap between starter and reserves in the NFC. The 49ers lose too much by taking Gore off the field. Rookie Thomas Clayton has a chance to get into the mix, as the reserve roles have yet to be defined.

Seattle Seahawks

Coach: Mike Holmgren, Average Rushes/Year: 407

Projected Rushing Attempts: 420

Mike Holmgren is known for his passing, but the fast pace of the Seattle offenses leads to a lot of plays, especially rushing attempts. Seattle has actually averaged 450 carries from their running backs the last three years, among the highest in the NFL.

Shaun Alexander: 300

Maurice Morris: 105

Assorted Flotsam: 15

Alexander is a runner that doesn't have to play well to be worth a first-round pick in fantasy leagues. He simply has to stay healthy. Mike Holmgren is going to ride his starter until he breaks. Check out Alexander's ridiculous 228 attempts in only eight games (including the playoffs) after returning from a broken foot last season. That volume makes up for one of the lowest averages in the league and a total lack of receiving yards. Our concern is that Alexander has been worked too hard and is likely to miss game time. Morris isn't an inspiring backup, but he'll probably get a start or two.

St. Louis Rams

Coach: Scott Linehan, Average Rushes/Year: 396

Projected Rushing Attempts: 390

The Rams are a pass-heavy team, especially inside the red zone. But their poor defense led to a lot of plays overall, so their rushing attempts were average.

Steven Jackson: 325

Brian Leonard: 65

Once you factor in his receptions, Jackson had nearly as many touches as Larry Johnson last season. Look for that number to decline with improved receiving options in St. Louis and a superior backup in Leonard. Even with a moderate decline in touches, Jackson should be among the top workhorses in the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Coach: Jon Gruden, Average Rushes/Year: 376

Projected Rushing Attempts: 380

Jon Gruden likes to run more than his reputation would suggest. He just needs to see production. His 2005 division championship team ran 422 times.

Carnell Williams: 285

Michael Pittman: 65

B.J. Askew: 20

Kenneth Darby: 10

Jon Gruden has never coached a 300-carry back, although Williams got the closest with 290 in his rookie season. Cadillac Williams has a chance to pick up more third-down and goal line work this season, especially following Mike Alstott's retirement. An improved passing game would help his rushing totals by keeping drives alive. Once again it comes down to health.

Caddy is going to outperform his Average Draft Position by leaps and bounds if he stays on the field. That's a guarantee.

Washington Redskins

Coach: Joe Gibbs, Average Rushes/Year: 443

Projected Rushing Attempts: 450

We are only counting Gibbs' return to the NFL in the numbers. Good teams run more, so it's remarkable Gibbs has averaged so many carries despite a 21-27 record since returning to the NFL. Imagine what they will do if they are any good. Joe Gibbs has the personnel to run wild this season. If the Redskins can stay around .500, it wouldn't surprise me if they lead the league in rushing attempts.

Clinton Portis: 250

Ladell Betts: 165

Rock Cartwright: 35

The run-heavy system helps explain why we project both Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts to have significant value this season. It's the rare backfield with enough carries to go around. Based on camp thus far, I have adjusted these numbers closer in recent days. We will continue to even out the carries in camp if Portis continues to struggle with injuries, but don't go overboard. If Portis is right, this shouldn't be a committee.

 

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