Faust
MVP
Joe Banner, Mike Lombardi to leave Browns; Ray Farmer to be GM
Once again, the Browns are hitting the reset button on their franchise.
By Josh Katzowitz | NFL Writer
February 11, 2014 10:12 am ET
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NFL Coaching & Front Office Changes for next season (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Once again, the Browns are hitting the reset button on their franchise.
By Josh Katzowitz | NFL Writer
February 11, 2014 10:12 am ET
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
What I'm hearing is that Banner and Lombardi promised Haslam to deliver a specific coach when they approached him about firing Chud. They then failed and the whole circus entailed. They were both reportedly against the Petting hiring as well while Haslam and Farmar both liked him.
And I just keep having trouble buying this, but my buddy keeps telling me that he is hearing from ESPN radio in Cleveland that the NFL forced Haslam to hire Banner as his GM as a condition of buying the team. WTF?
And I just keep having trouble buying this, but my buddy keeps telling me that he is hearing from ESPN radio in Cleveland that the NFL forced Haslam to hire Banner as his GM as a condition of buying the team. WTF?
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I think they have redefined the history books, but probably not in the way he wishes.
Great thread. Thanks for starting Faust and your work in it here.
As people participate in this thread, please offer your insights as to what you think the changes will mean for the team and specifically, how the players will be affected by the change.
Thanks.
J
As people participate in this thread, please offer your insights as to what you think the changes will mean for the team and specifically, how the players will be affected by the change.
Thanks.
J
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Well, that's handy.
Last year on offensive we had Kelly, McCoy and Trestman coming in, Chud & Turner in Cleveland. These seemed like exciting opportunities.
This year, so far the key ones I see (IMO):
- OC Tedford in TB
- OC Shanny Jr. in Cleveland (Turner gone)
- OC McAdoo in NYG (ie Gilbride leaves)
- Caldwell HC, Lombardi OC in DET (Linehan gone)
- Whiz HC in TEN (Loggains gone)
- OC Turner in MIN
- OC Lazor in MIA (ie Sherman leaves)
- Gruden in WAS; McVay (former TEs coach) OC
- OC Hue Jackson in CIN
- Chudzinski Special Asst. in IND
- Linehan passing game coordinator in DAL
- OC Kubiak in BAL
- HC O'Brien in HOU
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Marcus Robertson went from being a pretty solid DB to being a pretty good secondary coach. Raiders were 28th against the pass last year.
With no FS but the guy they waived, then re-signed in December, a RB as a backup CB, and....lots of DB issues, this is probably an important signing for them. They'll need to revamp the secondary and decide whether to give up on Taiwan Jones.
Depth:
http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/OAK
For FF, it'll be worth noting when and if they become a decent secondary that opposing QBs can't easily light up.
These two are negatives to me (today). I'm concerned the TE will see a drop in production in CLE and that a veteran play caller(OC) made the most of a bad situation. They still need a RB and I don't feel that they are convinced they have their QB. I think moving away from Turner was a big mistake. If young shanny gets a RB and a QB to use, I'll reconsider/adjust.
The Giants disarray was not made smoother by revamping the staff to oust all the long time coaches the players (and many others around the NFL) liked. I do not ever recall a halfway revamp working well. Either you overhaul the whole staff or just nit pick. Gilbride in his exit interview pointed out what we all knew to be the case-Eli stinks under pressure and must must must have time. They have a little more than nothing left of their OL. A new system while he's running for his life is a bad idea too. If the Giants sign five linemen...I'll rethink this. They are without a doubt, the worst line in football at this moment. In FF I won't take Cruz or Randle or any Giants til they get a line.
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netnalp
Footballguy
NY Giants Offensive Coordinator Ben McAdoo
Q: We talked to Tom last week and he said that you don’t describe yourself as a West Coast offense guy. How do you describe yourself and your offensive philosophies?
A: Well, West Coast… most teams in the league have West Coast principles built into their offense, and we’ll be one of them. We’re going to be an offense that has an identity, first and foremost. We’re going to be sound, smart and tough. We’re going to be committed to discipline and poise, and at the end of the day, we’re going to hang our hat on the fundamentals.
Q: Obviously you come from Green Bay and you worked under Mike McCarthy for a long time. How much do you think you’re going to take from him and how much do you think it’s maybe going to have your own twist on it?
A: Right now, what we’re doing is we’re upstairs, all of the offensive coaches and Coach Coughlin, we are sitting there and going through the nuts and bolts of things. Obviously we want to have a sound foundation. We feel we have that. At this point we’re starting to build what we’re going to look like. Every offensive system is its own living, breathing organism. At the end of the day, you have to make sure you’re flexible enough. It depends on what type of personnel you feed it to see what it’s going to look like. It’s a little early to know what we’re going to look like right now. The roster, we’re just in the beginning phases of what the roster is going to look like.
Q: How difficult is that? You could have any number of players at different positions coming in and out with free agency. Is it hard to wrap your mind around how you envision this offense when you don’t even know who the players are going to be?
A: I don’t think so. The offensive system here with the Giants has been in place for a long time. The offensive system that I’m coming from I’ve been in for 10 years. With those two systems being in place as we merge them together and build towards the future, we’ll be multiple enough to use any type of personnel.
Q: How much, if any, input does Eli have in this? How much do the rules limit that from being the case?
A: We’re going to put in a system, we’re going to install it. At this point in time, we’re going to abide by the letter of the law as far as the rules go. As we get going here on the 21st of April, we’re going to start to put the system in, work through the system. As Eli gets his hands on it and has a chance to get comfortable with it, we’ll make tweaks here and there. Really as the offseason and training camp goes on, every offensive system tailors towards the strength of the starting quarterback, what he does well and he doesn’t do well in the pass game. The runs are directly related to the runners. At the end of the day, your system is built around your personnel, not the other way around.
Q: How important is it to have some stability at quarterback? Do you see any similarities between Eli and Aaron Rodgers?
A: Working with Aaron… I haven’t worked with Eli, so that’s hard to say. But I do know this – they’re both Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, they’re both highly motivated and highly competitive. I’m excited to be here and excited to work with Eli.
Q: What was your conversation like with Eli? I believe you spoke to him once, maybe twice, during the interview process. What did you come away from that thinking and what was your impression?
A: I met Eli a year or so ago, a year ago at the Pro Bowl. I think it was last year, yeah, we had him in the Pro Bowl out there. We spent a little time together out there. It’s not too rigorous of a routine, but I came away with a great impression of him. In talking to him on the phone and having a chance to sit down with him and just talk to him a little without going into too much detail… I’m very fond of him, obviously, watching him play. There have been some high profile games between the Packers and the Giants over the years. He’s played very well in those games.
Q: Obviously a big focus for Eli this season will be on whether he can improve on a pretty down year, a lot of interceptions. When you look at what he did last year do you see that as something that a new system can fix or did he fall into bad mechanics or bad habits or anything that needs tweaking?
A: First and foremost, we hang our hat on fundamentals. That’s going to be the focal point. That’s the first thing that we’re going to address. The second thing is we want to take care of the football. Taking care of the football is the biggest factor in winning and losing games. Fundamentals can help you there. At the same point in time, everybody on the offensive side of the ball needs to play better. With that being said, everyone comes in with a clean slate. This is going to be a new operation on offense. There are some new coaches in place, there are some coaches who have been here who have been in different spots, but at the end of the day everyone has a clean slate. That’s how we’re going to start and that’s important for the players to know. Also, winning in this league, the quarterback gets a lot of credit and gets too much credit. When you don’t play so well and you lose in this league, the quarterback gets a lot of blame and probably too much blame. But that is the nature of the beast.
Q: John Mara after the season said that this offense was broken. When you look at this offense, when you’re studying it for the last five or six weeks, was it a broken offense?
A: I know that the offense here in the past has had a ton of success. Last year they didn’t play as well as they would have liked. At the same point in time, it’s important for everyone to understand that we’re going to move forward, we’re going to learn from the past, and we’re going to work so that doesn’t happen again.
Q: How important is the screen game for you guys and rebuilding that? I’m sure you had an opportunity to see that here with the Giants, they admittedly had major struggles with that. It seemed to be a really big part of what you guys did when you were in Green Bay. How important is that to you as you rebuild this offense and to have that weapon?
A: We’re definitely going to spend time in the screen game. It’s something that will be a focal point and needs to be installed. We’ll have different types of screens, whether they’re sidewalk screens or half screens, so fourth and so on, just like everybody else in the league. At the end of the day, it comes down to fundamentals and guys getting enough repetitions where they’re productive.
Q: When you look at the roster as it is right now, how much do you think you need a running back that can come out of the backfield as a pass-catcher?
A: First and foremost, the runner needs to be able to protect the quarterback. He also needs to be able to run with the ball in his hands and do that well. You’d like to have a complete back. Obviously, it’s ideal to have a guy who’s functional out of the backfield catching the football, but at the end of the day, if they can’t protect the quarterback, they’re going to have a hard time getting on the field.
Q: How confident are you in all of this? Obviously this is the first time you’re going to be an offensive coordinator, the first time calling plays. That’s a lot to handle for a relatively young guy. What’s your confidence level like?
A: I’m confident. I’ve been groomed for this position. It’s something that we train our coaches and our quarterbacks for. We’ve done it in Green Bay and it’s something that I feel very confident about. I’m excited for the opportunity, but at the end of the day, play calling isn’t just about one guy pulling plays out of a hat. It’s the process that you go through during the week. A lot of it has to do with game planning and has to do with ranking plays in the plan. Everyone’s involved with it, not just coaches, not just the head coach but the players as well.
Q: What did you take from the whole interview process? You had a head coaching interview as well. What do you take from the whole process of the interviewing and your future goals in that regard?
A: Well I’ll say this – I’m very excited to be here. I think that being able to come to an organization that is the class of professional sports, to work in an organization with a future Hall of Fame head coach and a two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback is very rare. You don’t get those types of opportunities. I come from a great place, a great organization with a head coach that I’m very fond of and players that I have a special relationship and a special bond with. To leave that, obviously your opportunity has to be something special. That’s what we’re looking at right now.
Q: You talked about blocking being the number one priority for a running back in your mind. What do you look for when you’re talking tight ends? That’s a position you’ve coached before and you seem to know very well. You don’t really have any guys under contract at that position here. What do you look for and what are the priorities about that position?
A: A tight end, that’s a difficult position, first of all, to evaluate. They’re asked to do a lot of things in this league, whether it’s run blocking from the backfield, run blocking at the line, out in space, a lot of things in pass protection and then running routes, whether they’re an in-line guy or they’re in the slot or in the back. They have a lot on their plate. To me, it was always the best position to coach and in this offense it’s the best position to play because you have to learn how to do everything and you have to learn how to do it well at a high level. At the end of the day, you have to find players who you can plug in and figure out what they do best and make sure on the field that they’re doing what they do best.
Q: I know you said it’s about the system first and then you assess personnel moving forward. From the guys you do have under contract, are there any that you’re really looking forward to getting going in your system and what you think their potential could be in your system?
A: Well, first things first, it’s not my system. It’s our system here and we’re building it right now. I’ve had a chance to meet different guys going through the building. It’ll be exciting. A lot of guys are in and out right now, so I haven’t had a chance to meet all of them. Victor (Cruz), we had over at the Pro Bowl and Eli, it’ll obviously be exciting to get going with those guys. Henry Hynoski, I’m familiar with, he played at Pitt and Southern Columbia High School. I’ve followed him since he was in high school really. A lot of other guys. Rueben Randle, I had a chance to meet yesterday, he’s excited to get going. Just to name a few that I had a chance to talk to. Chris Snee has been in the weight room a ton, I’ve run into him and Boothe and all of those guys, so it’s been great seeing them and I look forward to getting going.
Q: With so many question marks and injuries along the offensive line, is that something that’s a bit of a concern for you or do you see that as a bit of an opportunity to draft or bring in a free agent to help?
A: It definitely is an opportunity. When the door closes for someone, it opens for another. There are going to be plenty of guys lined up at the door to get a spot. We look forward to helping them improve and developing guys and seeing where we could take this thing.
Q: We talked to Tom last week and he said that you don’t describe yourself as a West Coast offense guy. How do you describe yourself and your offensive philosophies?
A: Well, West Coast… most teams in the league have West Coast principles built into their offense, and we’ll be one of them. We’re going to be an offense that has an identity, first and foremost. We’re going to be sound, smart and tough. We’re going to be committed to discipline and poise, and at the end of the day, we’re going to hang our hat on the fundamentals.
Q: Obviously you come from Green Bay and you worked under Mike McCarthy for a long time. How much do you think you’re going to take from him and how much do you think it’s maybe going to have your own twist on it?
A: Right now, what we’re doing is we’re upstairs, all of the offensive coaches and Coach Coughlin, we are sitting there and going through the nuts and bolts of things. Obviously we want to have a sound foundation. We feel we have that. At this point we’re starting to build what we’re going to look like. Every offensive system is its own living, breathing organism. At the end of the day, you have to make sure you’re flexible enough. It depends on what type of personnel you feed it to see what it’s going to look like. It’s a little early to know what we’re going to look like right now. The roster, we’re just in the beginning phases of what the roster is going to look like.
Q: How difficult is that? You could have any number of players at different positions coming in and out with free agency. Is it hard to wrap your mind around how you envision this offense when you don’t even know who the players are going to be?
A: I don’t think so. The offensive system here with the Giants has been in place for a long time. The offensive system that I’m coming from I’ve been in for 10 years. With those two systems being in place as we merge them together and build towards the future, we’ll be multiple enough to use any type of personnel.
Q: How much, if any, input does Eli have in this? How much do the rules limit that from being the case?
A: We’re going to put in a system, we’re going to install it. At this point in time, we’re going to abide by the letter of the law as far as the rules go. As we get going here on the 21st of April, we’re going to start to put the system in, work through the system. As Eli gets his hands on it and has a chance to get comfortable with it, we’ll make tweaks here and there. Really as the offseason and training camp goes on, every offensive system tailors towards the strength of the starting quarterback, what he does well and he doesn’t do well in the pass game. The runs are directly related to the runners. At the end of the day, your system is built around your personnel, not the other way around.
Q: How important is it to have some stability at quarterback? Do you see any similarities between Eli and Aaron Rodgers?
A: Working with Aaron… I haven’t worked with Eli, so that’s hard to say. But I do know this – they’re both Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, they’re both highly motivated and highly competitive. I’m excited to be here and excited to work with Eli.
Q: What was your conversation like with Eli? I believe you spoke to him once, maybe twice, during the interview process. What did you come away from that thinking and what was your impression?
A: I met Eli a year or so ago, a year ago at the Pro Bowl. I think it was last year, yeah, we had him in the Pro Bowl out there. We spent a little time together out there. It’s not too rigorous of a routine, but I came away with a great impression of him. In talking to him on the phone and having a chance to sit down with him and just talk to him a little without going into too much detail… I’m very fond of him, obviously, watching him play. There have been some high profile games between the Packers and the Giants over the years. He’s played very well in those games.
Q: Obviously a big focus for Eli this season will be on whether he can improve on a pretty down year, a lot of interceptions. When you look at what he did last year do you see that as something that a new system can fix or did he fall into bad mechanics or bad habits or anything that needs tweaking?
A: First and foremost, we hang our hat on fundamentals. That’s going to be the focal point. That’s the first thing that we’re going to address. The second thing is we want to take care of the football. Taking care of the football is the biggest factor in winning and losing games. Fundamentals can help you there. At the same point in time, everybody on the offensive side of the ball needs to play better. With that being said, everyone comes in with a clean slate. This is going to be a new operation on offense. There are some new coaches in place, there are some coaches who have been here who have been in different spots, but at the end of the day everyone has a clean slate. That’s how we’re going to start and that’s important for the players to know. Also, winning in this league, the quarterback gets a lot of credit and gets too much credit. When you don’t play so well and you lose in this league, the quarterback gets a lot of blame and probably too much blame. But that is the nature of the beast.
Q: John Mara after the season said that this offense was broken. When you look at this offense, when you’re studying it for the last five or six weeks, was it a broken offense?
A: I know that the offense here in the past has had a ton of success. Last year they didn’t play as well as they would have liked. At the same point in time, it’s important for everyone to understand that we’re going to move forward, we’re going to learn from the past, and we’re going to work so that doesn’t happen again.
Q: How important is the screen game for you guys and rebuilding that? I’m sure you had an opportunity to see that here with the Giants, they admittedly had major struggles with that. It seemed to be a really big part of what you guys did when you were in Green Bay. How important is that to you as you rebuild this offense and to have that weapon?
A: We’re definitely going to spend time in the screen game. It’s something that will be a focal point and needs to be installed. We’ll have different types of screens, whether they’re sidewalk screens or half screens, so fourth and so on, just like everybody else in the league. At the end of the day, it comes down to fundamentals and guys getting enough repetitions where they’re productive.
Q: When you look at the roster as it is right now, how much do you think you need a running back that can come out of the backfield as a pass-catcher?
A: First and foremost, the runner needs to be able to protect the quarterback. He also needs to be able to run with the ball in his hands and do that well. You’d like to have a complete back. Obviously, it’s ideal to have a guy who’s functional out of the backfield catching the football, but at the end of the day, if they can’t protect the quarterback, they’re going to have a hard time getting on the field.
Q: How confident are you in all of this? Obviously this is the first time you’re going to be an offensive coordinator, the first time calling plays. That’s a lot to handle for a relatively young guy. What’s your confidence level like?
A: I’m confident. I’ve been groomed for this position. It’s something that we train our coaches and our quarterbacks for. We’ve done it in Green Bay and it’s something that I feel very confident about. I’m excited for the opportunity, but at the end of the day, play calling isn’t just about one guy pulling plays out of a hat. It’s the process that you go through during the week. A lot of it has to do with game planning and has to do with ranking plays in the plan. Everyone’s involved with it, not just coaches, not just the head coach but the players as well.
Q: What did you take from the whole interview process? You had a head coaching interview as well. What do you take from the whole process of the interviewing and your future goals in that regard?
A: Well I’ll say this – I’m very excited to be here. I think that being able to come to an organization that is the class of professional sports, to work in an organization with a future Hall of Fame head coach and a two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback is very rare. You don’t get those types of opportunities. I come from a great place, a great organization with a head coach that I’m very fond of and players that I have a special relationship and a special bond with. To leave that, obviously your opportunity has to be something special. That’s what we’re looking at right now.
Q: You talked about blocking being the number one priority for a running back in your mind. What do you look for when you’re talking tight ends? That’s a position you’ve coached before and you seem to know very well. You don’t really have any guys under contract at that position here. What do you look for and what are the priorities about that position?
A: A tight end, that’s a difficult position, first of all, to evaluate. They’re asked to do a lot of things in this league, whether it’s run blocking from the backfield, run blocking at the line, out in space, a lot of things in pass protection and then running routes, whether they’re an in-line guy or they’re in the slot or in the back. They have a lot on their plate. To me, it was always the best position to coach and in this offense it’s the best position to play because you have to learn how to do everything and you have to learn how to do it well at a high level. At the end of the day, you have to find players who you can plug in and figure out what they do best and make sure on the field that they’re doing what they do best.
Q: I know you said it’s about the system first and then you assess personnel moving forward. From the guys you do have under contract, are there any that you’re really looking forward to getting going in your system and what you think their potential could be in your system?
A: Well, first things first, it’s not my system. It’s our system here and we’re building it right now. I’ve had a chance to meet different guys going through the building. It’ll be exciting. A lot of guys are in and out right now, so I haven’t had a chance to meet all of them. Victor (Cruz), we had over at the Pro Bowl and Eli, it’ll obviously be exciting to get going with those guys. Henry Hynoski, I’m familiar with, he played at Pitt and Southern Columbia High School. I’ve followed him since he was in high school really. A lot of other guys. Rueben Randle, I had a chance to meet yesterday, he’s excited to get going. Just to name a few that I had a chance to talk to. Chris Snee has been in the weight room a ton, I’ve run into him and Boothe and all of those guys, so it’s been great seeing them and I look forward to getting going.
Q: With so many question marks and injuries along the offensive line, is that something that’s a bit of a concern for you or do you see that as a bit of an opportunity to draft or bring in a free agent to help?
A: It definitely is an opportunity. When the door closes for someone, it opens for another. There are going to be plenty of guys lined up at the door to get a spot. We look forward to helping them improve and developing guys and seeing where we could take this thing.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Click the link for data. Good article.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
How do people view Lazor?
My thought is the Eagles offense was really run by Kelly, it was truly his creation. How much of an impact did Lazor have?
I ask that because how can we gauge how much of an influence will he bring from what we saw in Philly?
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
When does Darrell Bevell get a head coaching job?
Just wondering if anyone has any observations on how good of a HC he would be?
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/BeveDa0.htm
He's had a top 10 rushing team 5 of his 8 years as an OC, he brought the Vikes to the 09 NFCC and of course the Hawks just won the SB. He has coached Lynch and Peterson.
It seems to me is the most prime coordinator awaiting a HC job right now.
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Faust
MVP
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well NE Buffalo and the Jets seemed to have moved to an up tempo offense in 2013. So this sounds like Miami is going to try to follow suit. So the entire AFC East now seems to be trying to run up tempo.
I am not sure about how effective that will be because of their offensive line. I am not sure they will run the ball with the same high ratio as you are seeing in PHI, Buf, Jets. I still expect them to pass the ball more even after adding Moreno. So while up tempo I am not expecting quite as many rushing attempts as the other up tempo teams.
Faust
MVP
Coupdegrace
Footballguy
anyone have a link to all new hc/oc with system schemes?
MAC_32
Footballguy
I'd love for a coach to come out and say we are going to run less on offense and not attack as much on defense.
Faust
MVP
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The Norv Narrative: Offensive Coordinator Impact in Fantasy Football
written by
Jeff Miller
on Jan 29th, 2014 https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1711/the-norv-narrative-offensive-coordinator-impact-in-fantasy-football/
The sports world is filled with narratives. Sometimes they're grounded in good data, but at least as often they're born of a high profile analyst or talking head saying something without any real evidence to support their statement. We hear about how so-and-so is clutch and how Team X is angry, so they will play better this week. Nine times out of 10, it's a bunch of malarkey.
As most of you know, the Norv Narrative says Mr. Turner is a great offensive coordinator (OC) who improves offensive output like few others. We expect the passing game specifically to take off under one Norval E. Turner. Because nobody else has gone through the effort to thoroughly investigate and because I am nothing if not a seeker of truth, I set out to see if there is a legitimate validity to this Norv Narrative.
The Easy (Incomplete) Argument
The first, most logical move was to compile data for Norv’s career as a play caller. Along with stats for Turner coached teams, the following table shows data for those same teams the season before he came on board and for the season after he departed. The purpose of this exercise is to show how teams fared with and without the venerable coordinator.
Please note that fantasy points in this table, and throughout this column, follow standard fractional scoring (0.04 points per passing yard, 0.1 points per rushing or receiving yard, 4 points per passing TD, -2 points per INT, 6 points per rushing or receiving TD). Negative points for fumbles were intentionally omitted because they are not the responsibility of an offensive coordinator and therefore should not reflect negatively on them. (See link for chart)
Despite how promising this looks for Turner, it lacks perspective. The data set doesn’t show how he compares to contemporaries or take into account the standard inflation of statistics the NFL sees on a season-to-season basis. We are going to need a few more licks to get to the center of the Tootsie Pop.
Contemporary Comparisons
In order to gain some perspective on where Norv stands among his peers, I came up with a list of well-known offensive coordinators who are still active in NFL circles. When combing through the candidates, I specifically looked for a mix of well respected (Ken Whisenhunt, Mike McCarthy) and lightly regarded (Cam Cameron, Brian Schottenheimer) coordinators.
While the totality of this data is too gargantuan to post here, I made up a fancy little graph that sums things up nicely. The blue bars represent fantasy points per game scored (FPPG) by a team the season before the coach in question took over play calling duties. The orange bar is FPPG during their tenure. And finally, the gray bar shows how many FPPG teams scored the season after the coach hit the bricks.
Click here to view the graph.
Along that same vein, the table below shows the percentage by which a coach improved an offense’s fantasy production in their first year at the helm. It also shows how much a team gained or lost the year after the coach had left.
The first thing that should jump out is how significantly the majority of coaches improved their new team’s fantasy performance. You may also be looking at how many points per game each coach was good for, comparing one to the other.
Questions abound!
Q. Did I happen to randomly pick out a group of unusually good offensive coordinators?
A. Possibly. Despite several of the coaches being the target of vitriol, both in the fantasy and regular football communities, most have a significant amount of NFL experience. Say what you will about teams recycling failed coaches, but generally speaking, the bad guys wash out and the ones worth keeping continue to get work. My hunch is that despite our hatred of, for example, Cam Cameron, he is better for fantasy results than we’ve ever given him credit for.
Q. Historically speaking, do all teams show a bump in production when bringing in a new OC?
A. Yes. I’ll get into this later.
Q. How does an OC’s offensive scheme affect fantasy performance?
A. One thing that we need to keep in mind when analyzing fantasy data as it relates to offensive coordinators is that those who favor a passing attack are going to score significantly more points. The simple explanation for this is that passing stats are all scored twice (once for the quarterback, and once for those catching the passes). This is a long winded way of saying that pass-happy coordinators are going to score more points in general than those who have a more run-based attack.
Q. If this Norv guy is so good, why is he only fifth in points per game?
A. Of all the coaches on that list, Turner is the only one who was a coordinator prior to 2000. In the first nine years of his career (1991-1999), the NFL average FPPG was 50.1. From 2000-2013, it rises to 59.9. Considering how much fantasy scoring has progressed in the second half of Turner’s career, it is remarkable that his average is as high as it is.
To that point, here is progression of league-wide offensive numbers since Turner got his first OC gig: (see link for chart)
Another feather in Turner’s cap is how efficient his offenses are at scoring fantasy points. Since 2000, the only three coaches in our sample that he trails have had Tom Brady,Brett Favre, or Aaron Rodgers for 19 of their 31 combined seasons. Despite cutting his coaching teeth in a much lower scoring era, Norv’s career numbers also compare very favorably. (see link for chart)
Quarterbacks Love Norval
Another part of the Norv Narrative concerns his supposed positive impact on the quarterback position. To test this theory, I gathered season-by-season career data for every passer who’s ever started a game for Turner. To keep the data as relevant as possible, I weeded out any season in which the player didn’t start at least one game (those three appearance, no passes, seven kneel down seasons would artificially depress data). With Doug Flutie and Rich Gannon, who Turner had for only 19 of their 157 NFL games, lapping the field with their legs, thus skewing results in an artificial way, I also removed rushing stats from the equation.
In games Turner was at the helm, his quarterbacks scored 11.72 fantasy points per game. Those same quarterbacks averaged 10.79 points in games Turner wasn’t on the sideline, an 8.34% difference. When I factored in margin of error (using 95% confidence), the results showed a range of a 5.79% to 10.75% difference. All of that is a fancy way of saying Turner does, in fact, increase the fantasy value of quarterbacks.
To any of you who think those quarterback FPPG figures look low, you have to keep in mind Turner made his coordinating debut 23 years ago for the Dallas Cowboys. As good as his passer, Troy Aikman, was at the time at the time, the Hall of Famer averaged a paltry 12.3 FPPG for his career.
For what it is worth, Aikman had his career’s two best fantasy seasons (in terms of FPPG) under Turner (who was in Dallas for only three years).
Having said all that, if the Vikings don’t upgrade the position this year, it won’t matter how good Turner is. If we take a look at what Cleveland - a team with a quarterback situation not at all dissimilar from Minnesota’s - did in 2013 compared to 2012, it gives a pretty good barometer of the sort of improvement we could see from the Vikings in 2014.
Year Att Comp Yds TD INT Ru Att Ru Yd Ru TD FP's FPPG
2012 306 534 3,464 15 17 31 126 0 173.2 10.8
2013 378 680 4,361 25 20 31 167 0 243.1 15.2
As impressive as that is, it still doesn’t make for fantasy relevance at the position unless the starting point is much higher than Josh Freeman, Matt Cassel, or Christian Ponder.
Other Skill Positions
Before we get into receivers and backs, take a moment to bookmark this excellent piece written by our editor, JJ Zachariason. The cliff notes version is that tight ends have enjoyed great success under Turner’s tutelage. As such, Kyle Rudolph could finally find the consistency needed to assert himself well inside the top 10.
I had planned to follow in JJ’s shoes and do the same sort of workup for running backs. But then I remembered Minnesota has Adrian Peterson. He is a top three to five running back in 2014 drafts regardless of who his coach is.
Bonus Tidbit: In Turner’s career, his backs have averaged 104 receptions per year. Vikings backs had 60 in 2013. Peterson’s career high is 43.
None of that will likely affect Peterson’s draft stock, but he could have sneaky value in PPR leagues if Minnesota doesn’t add a pass-catching back in the offseason.
With Greg Jennings, who has twice finished as a top-four fantasy wide receiver, and sophomore phenom Cordarrelle Patterson, Turner’s impact on the Vikings' wide receivers should be the most fantasy relevant piece of the pie in 2014. As you will see in the table that follows, Norv has had great success with his number one receivers over the years. Generally speaking, if he had a player with talent, they performed well. Unfortunately, the love doesn’t trickle down to the other wide outs very often.
Year-End Fantasy Ranks of Turner's WR1s and WR2s
WR1 Rank WR2 Rank
1991 2 66
1992 2 21
1993 4 79
1994 9 35
1995 24 92
1996 35 85
1997 60 63
1998 32 41
1999 10 13
2000 43 48
2001 12 67
2002 47 66
2003 12 78
2004 23 37
2005 14 24
2006 43 47
2007 53 105
2008 11 144
2009 10 35
2010 36 78
2011 10 30
2012 35 39
2013 1 74
Avg. 23 59
There are a few occasions where his number two receivers put up top-30 numbers, but those are an anomaly. Much of this has to do with the lack of quality options Turner has had at the position. Also conspiring to sap receivers of targets are the aforementioned high usage of tight ends and running backs as pass catchers.
How Patterson, the Vikings WR2, develops will likely be the defining factor in Turner’s legacy in Minnesota. The former first rounder has the skills to continue in the hybrid role he filled late last season. He also has the pure physical talent to be one of the best players in the NFL as a pure wide out. Whether Turner can help bring that together while keeping Jennings, Peterson, and Rudolph all in the picture will be a fascinating storyline to watch.
320 Years of Proof
At the top of this column I showed how Turner affects a team’s fantasy output versus the seasons before he was hired and after he left. I also compared that to 10 of his contemporary offensive coordinators. The issue with that comparison is the small sample size; it covers a 11 subjects and only 129 seasons. In order to really see how Turner stacks up, I pulled stats for every NFL team for each of the last 10 years.
With all the numbers crunched, I found that the average increase in a team’s fantasy production in a coordinator’s first season is 3.1%. Turner obliterates that figure, as he raises fantasy scoring by 18%. What’s more, the new Vikings coach averages a 27.3% increase during his entire tenure versus the season before he was hired. The NFL average is 7.7%.
Narrative Confirmed
After 30-some odd hours of research and writing, I think I can safely say that the Norv Narrative is the real deal. In the interest of full disclosure, part of me wanted to spit in the face of the hundreds of “experts” who supported their version of the narrative with anecdotal evidence (or none at all) by proving Turner was less than the what he has been out to be. But a bigger part of me was excited to learn what I did as it has me all geared up to see what he does with Patterson, Jennings, Peterson, and Rudolph. I am no Nostradamus, but if the past 23 years have taught us anything, it should be that Minnesota’s offense is about to take a significant step in the right direction.
written by
Jeff Miller
on Jan 29th, 2014 https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1711/the-norv-narrative-offensive-coordinator-impact-in-fantasy-football/
The sports world is filled with narratives. Sometimes they're grounded in good data, but at least as often they're born of a high profile analyst or talking head saying something without any real evidence to support their statement. We hear about how so-and-so is clutch and how Team X is angry, so they will play better this week. Nine times out of 10, it's a bunch of malarkey.
As most of you know, the Norv Narrative says Mr. Turner is a great offensive coordinator (OC) who improves offensive output like few others. We expect the passing game specifically to take off under one Norval E. Turner. Because nobody else has gone through the effort to thoroughly investigate and because I am nothing if not a seeker of truth, I set out to see if there is a legitimate validity to this Norv Narrative.
The Easy (Incomplete) Argument
The first, most logical move was to compile data for Norv’s career as a play caller. Along with stats for Turner coached teams, the following table shows data for those same teams the season before he came on board and for the season after he departed. The purpose of this exercise is to show how teams fared with and without the venerable coordinator.
Please note that fantasy points in this table, and throughout this column, follow standard fractional scoring (0.04 points per passing yard, 0.1 points per rushing or receiving yard, 4 points per passing TD, -2 points per INT, 6 points per rushing or receiving TD). Negative points for fumbles were intentionally omitted because they are not the responsibility of an offensive coordinator and therefore should not reflect negatively on them. (See link for chart)
Despite how promising this looks for Turner, it lacks perspective. The data set doesn’t show how he compares to contemporaries or take into account the standard inflation of statistics the NFL sees on a season-to-season basis. We are going to need a few more licks to get to the center of the Tootsie Pop.
Contemporary Comparisons
In order to gain some perspective on where Norv stands among his peers, I came up with a list of well-known offensive coordinators who are still active in NFL circles. When combing through the candidates, I specifically looked for a mix of well respected (Ken Whisenhunt, Mike McCarthy) and lightly regarded (Cam Cameron, Brian Schottenheimer) coordinators.
While the totality of this data is too gargantuan to post here, I made up a fancy little graph that sums things up nicely. The blue bars represent fantasy points per game scored (FPPG) by a team the season before the coach in question took over play calling duties. The orange bar is FPPG during their tenure. And finally, the gray bar shows how many FPPG teams scored the season after the coach hit the bricks.
Click here to view the graph.
Along that same vein, the table below shows the percentage by which a coach improved an offense’s fantasy production in their first year at the helm. It also shows how much a team gained or lost the year after the coach had left.
The first thing that should jump out is how significantly the majority of coaches improved their new team’s fantasy performance. You may also be looking at how many points per game each coach was good for, comparing one to the other.
Questions abound!
Q. Did I happen to randomly pick out a group of unusually good offensive coordinators?
A. Possibly. Despite several of the coaches being the target of vitriol, both in the fantasy and regular football communities, most have a significant amount of NFL experience. Say what you will about teams recycling failed coaches, but generally speaking, the bad guys wash out and the ones worth keeping continue to get work. My hunch is that despite our hatred of, for example, Cam Cameron, he is better for fantasy results than we’ve ever given him credit for.
Q. Historically speaking, do all teams show a bump in production when bringing in a new OC?
A. Yes. I’ll get into this later.
Q. How does an OC’s offensive scheme affect fantasy performance?
A. One thing that we need to keep in mind when analyzing fantasy data as it relates to offensive coordinators is that those who favor a passing attack are going to score significantly more points. The simple explanation for this is that passing stats are all scored twice (once for the quarterback, and once for those catching the passes). This is a long winded way of saying that pass-happy coordinators are going to score more points in general than those who have a more run-based attack.
Q. If this Norv guy is so good, why is he only fifth in points per game?
A. Of all the coaches on that list, Turner is the only one who was a coordinator prior to 2000. In the first nine years of his career (1991-1999), the NFL average FPPG was 50.1. From 2000-2013, it rises to 59.9. Considering how much fantasy scoring has progressed in the second half of Turner’s career, it is remarkable that his average is as high as it is.
To that point, here is progression of league-wide offensive numbers since Turner got his first OC gig: (see link for chart)
Another feather in Turner’s cap is how efficient his offenses are at scoring fantasy points. Since 2000, the only three coaches in our sample that he trails have had Tom Brady,Brett Favre, or Aaron Rodgers for 19 of their 31 combined seasons. Despite cutting his coaching teeth in a much lower scoring era, Norv’s career numbers also compare very favorably. (see link for chart)
Quarterbacks Love Norval
Another part of the Norv Narrative concerns his supposed positive impact on the quarterback position. To test this theory, I gathered season-by-season career data for every passer who’s ever started a game for Turner. To keep the data as relevant as possible, I weeded out any season in which the player didn’t start at least one game (those three appearance, no passes, seven kneel down seasons would artificially depress data). With Doug Flutie and Rich Gannon, who Turner had for only 19 of their 157 NFL games, lapping the field with their legs, thus skewing results in an artificial way, I also removed rushing stats from the equation.
In games Turner was at the helm, his quarterbacks scored 11.72 fantasy points per game. Those same quarterbacks averaged 10.79 points in games Turner wasn’t on the sideline, an 8.34% difference. When I factored in margin of error (using 95% confidence), the results showed a range of a 5.79% to 10.75% difference. All of that is a fancy way of saying Turner does, in fact, increase the fantasy value of quarterbacks.
To any of you who think those quarterback FPPG figures look low, you have to keep in mind Turner made his coordinating debut 23 years ago for the Dallas Cowboys. As good as his passer, Troy Aikman, was at the time at the time, the Hall of Famer averaged a paltry 12.3 FPPG for his career.
For what it is worth, Aikman had his career’s two best fantasy seasons (in terms of FPPG) under Turner (who was in Dallas for only three years).
Having said all that, if the Vikings don’t upgrade the position this year, it won’t matter how good Turner is. If we take a look at what Cleveland - a team with a quarterback situation not at all dissimilar from Minnesota’s - did in 2013 compared to 2012, it gives a pretty good barometer of the sort of improvement we could see from the Vikings in 2014.
Year Att Comp Yds TD INT Ru Att Ru Yd Ru TD FP's FPPG
2012 306 534 3,464 15 17 31 126 0 173.2 10.8
2013 378 680 4,361 25 20 31 167 0 243.1 15.2
As impressive as that is, it still doesn’t make for fantasy relevance at the position unless the starting point is much higher than Josh Freeman, Matt Cassel, or Christian Ponder.
Other Skill Positions
Before we get into receivers and backs, take a moment to bookmark this excellent piece written by our editor, JJ Zachariason. The cliff notes version is that tight ends have enjoyed great success under Turner’s tutelage. As such, Kyle Rudolph could finally find the consistency needed to assert himself well inside the top 10.
I had planned to follow in JJ’s shoes and do the same sort of workup for running backs. But then I remembered Minnesota has Adrian Peterson. He is a top three to five running back in 2014 drafts regardless of who his coach is.
Bonus Tidbit: In Turner’s career, his backs have averaged 104 receptions per year. Vikings backs had 60 in 2013. Peterson’s career high is 43.
None of that will likely affect Peterson’s draft stock, but he could have sneaky value in PPR leagues if Minnesota doesn’t add a pass-catching back in the offseason.
With Greg Jennings, who has twice finished as a top-four fantasy wide receiver, and sophomore phenom Cordarrelle Patterson, Turner’s impact on the Vikings' wide receivers should be the most fantasy relevant piece of the pie in 2014. As you will see in the table that follows, Norv has had great success with his number one receivers over the years. Generally speaking, if he had a player with talent, they performed well. Unfortunately, the love doesn’t trickle down to the other wide outs very often.
Year-End Fantasy Ranks of Turner's WR1s and WR2s
WR1 Rank WR2 Rank
1991 2 66
1992 2 21
1993 4 79
1994 9 35
1995 24 92
1996 35 85
1997 60 63
1998 32 41
1999 10 13
2000 43 48
2001 12 67
2002 47 66
2003 12 78
2004 23 37
2005 14 24
2006 43 47
2007 53 105
2008 11 144
2009 10 35
2010 36 78
2011 10 30
2012 35 39
2013 1 74
Avg. 23 59
There are a few occasions where his number two receivers put up top-30 numbers, but those are an anomaly. Much of this has to do with the lack of quality options Turner has had at the position. Also conspiring to sap receivers of targets are the aforementioned high usage of tight ends and running backs as pass catchers.
How Patterson, the Vikings WR2, develops will likely be the defining factor in Turner’s legacy in Minnesota. The former first rounder has the skills to continue in the hybrid role he filled late last season. He also has the pure physical talent to be one of the best players in the NFL as a pure wide out. Whether Turner can help bring that together while keeping Jennings, Peterson, and Rudolph all in the picture will be a fascinating storyline to watch.
320 Years of Proof
At the top of this column I showed how Turner affects a team’s fantasy output versus the seasons before he was hired and after he left. I also compared that to 10 of his contemporary offensive coordinators. The issue with that comparison is the small sample size; it covers a 11 subjects and only 129 seasons. In order to really see how Turner stacks up, I pulled stats for every NFL team for each of the last 10 years.
With all the numbers crunched, I found that the average increase in a team’s fantasy production in a coordinator’s first season is 3.1%. Turner obliterates that figure, as he raises fantasy scoring by 18%. What’s more, the new Vikings coach averages a 27.3% increase during his entire tenure versus the season before he was hired. The NFL average is 7.7%.
Narrative Confirmed
After 30-some odd hours of research and writing, I think I can safely say that the Norv Narrative is the real deal. In the interest of full disclosure, part of me wanted to spit in the face of the hundreds of “experts” who supported their version of the narrative with anecdotal evidence (or none at all) by proving Turner was less than the what he has been out to be. But a bigger part of me was excited to learn what I did as it has me all geared up to see what he does with Patterson, Jennings, Peterson, and Rudolph. I am no Nostradamus, but if the past 23 years have taught us anything, it should be that Minnesota’s offense is about to take a significant step in the right direction.
Last edited by a moderator:
Faust
MVP
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While I appreciate Geoff's opinion on what the Bengals should do I wonder if he has heard anything about this?
The Bengals ran 1097 plays in 2013, 6th in the league in total plays. The Seahawks ran 973. That is a 124 play difference which would be close to the same as 2 games worth of offensive plays. Or 8 plays/game less than what they ran last season.
That does not seem like a good idea to me. That kind of thing could get Jackson fired if the offense takes such a big step backwards.
Slowing the game down as Geoff mentions would lead to less points scored on offense, which would put more pressure on the defense to maintain leads.
The Bengals ran 1097 plays in 2013, 6th in the league in total plays. The Seahawks ran 973. That is a 124 play difference which would be close to the same as 2 games worth of offensive plays. Or 8 plays/game less than what they ran last season.
That does not seem like a good idea to me. That kind of thing could get Jackson fired if the offense takes such a big step backwards.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
If the Browns are even to fantasize about getting back to regular contention they need to be able to beat the teams in their own division, it's a good point about the passing game and end of season weather.
Last edited by a moderator:
DawnBTVS
Footballguy
Thought it'd be interesting to take a gander at the possible impact in Tampa Bay.
Breaking down Jeff Tedford's offense
HC at California 2002-212
- 2012: 8 more runs per game than passes. RBBC (146 and 126 carries). Top 2 receivers were WR with 61 and 41 catches. TE had 20 catches.
- 2011: 3 more runs per game than passes. QB averaged 7.4 YPA. 1 RB had 252 carries. 2 WR dominated (98 and 62 catches).
- 2010: 8 more runs per game than passes. QB averaged 7.6 YPA. 1 RB had 231 carries & 22 catches. 2 WR dominated (50 and 46 catches).
- 2009: 6 more runs per game than passes. QB averaged 7.5 YPA. RBBC (183 and 141 carries). Top WR had 43 catches while RBs combined for 47.
- 2008: 3 more runs per game than passes. QBs averaged 6.3 YPA. RBBC (194 and 142 carries). RBs combined for 54 catches. TE had 27 catches.
- 2007: 50/50 split on passes to runs. QB averaged 6.7 YPA. 1 RB had 305 carries & 22 catches. 2 WR dominated (72 and 65 catches). TEs combined for 30 catches.
Takeaways
- Tampa Bay offense will primarily focus more on the running game. Boosts Doug Martin's stock up as both a runner & receiver.
- Tedford's offense lets the QB play sound football but they generally finished in the upper 15-19 range in terms of TDs thrown. I don't expect McCown to throw more than 18-21 TD in the regular season.
- The main two WRs should get their stocks boosted, especially Vincent Jackson. There is an obvious reliance on the 2 WR/1 RB in terms of catch distribution. 3rd WR is usually seen but not heard.
- TE may take a hit depending on Sefarian-Jenkin's talent level. TEs rarely got fed the ball under Tedford and I'd be surprised if Sefarian-Jenkins got more than 35-45 catches during the season. He may get more but given Lovie's history with TEs in Chicago, I'd temper my expectations.
Breaking down Jeff Tedford's offense
HC at California 2002-212
- 2012: 8 more runs per game than passes. RBBC (146 and 126 carries). Top 2 receivers were WR with 61 and 41 catches. TE had 20 catches.
- 2011: 3 more runs per game than passes. QB averaged 7.4 YPA. 1 RB had 252 carries. 2 WR dominated (98 and 62 catches).
- 2010: 8 more runs per game than passes. QB averaged 7.6 YPA. 1 RB had 231 carries & 22 catches. 2 WR dominated (50 and 46 catches).
- 2009: 6 more runs per game than passes. QB averaged 7.5 YPA. RBBC (183 and 141 carries). Top WR had 43 catches while RBs combined for 47.
- 2008: 3 more runs per game than passes. QBs averaged 6.3 YPA. RBBC (194 and 142 carries). RBs combined for 54 catches. TE had 27 catches.
- 2007: 50/50 split on passes to runs. QB averaged 6.7 YPA. 1 RB had 305 carries & 22 catches. 2 WR dominated (72 and 65 catches). TEs combined for 30 catches.
Takeaways
- Tampa Bay offense will primarily focus more on the running game. Boosts Doug Martin's stock up as both a runner & receiver.
- Tedford's offense lets the QB play sound football but they generally finished in the upper 15-19 range in terms of TDs thrown. I don't expect McCown to throw more than 18-21 TD in the regular season.
- The main two WRs should get their stocks boosted, especially Vincent Jackson. There is an obvious reliance on the 2 WR/1 RB in terms of catch distribution. 3rd WR is usually seen but not heard.
- TE may take a hit depending on Sefarian-Jenkin's talent level. TEs rarely got fed the ball under Tedford and I'd be surprised if Sefarian-Jenkins got more than 35-45 catches during the season. He may get more but given Lovie's history with TEs in Chicago, I'd temper my expectations.
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Faust
MVP
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