NFLDraftGuys: Andy Dufresne's Mock First/Stand-Up Act (1 Viewer)

[Andy Dufresne]

good work!

just wanted to know your reasoning behind the following predictions:

why Quinn and not Russell to Oakland,

I just think that Quinn is the much more NFL-ready QB and fits better in what appears to be shaping up as a WCO style team. I'm very wary of fast rising QBs and Russell is just the latest one of those.That, and it's boring going with the grain all the time.

and why would Minnesota go for yet another RB, when they have 120 of them on their current roster, including Taylor with his mega contract. I understand Peterson is a very talented player, but do they really need another ( injury prone) RB?

They don't have any more RB's on the roster than any other team. And here's my breakdown of eachinner - nothing more than a spot fill journeyman.

Fason - nothing special and rumored to be a possible cut

Moore - perpetually in the doghouse, both with Tice and Childress. He's talented but just not tough enough

Taylor - I loved the CT pickup last year and he gave the Vikings everything he could. But I think a superior back like Peterson would have put up monster numbers, where Chet's were simply very good. Chet lacks the burst of an elite back. I'm playing with numbers a bit here, if you take out his 95 yarder against Seattle his YPC was only 3.7 - which isn't great. He wore down as the season went on, like any lone feature back would, so he could either USE a good #2 back, or BE a great #2 back to shoulder the load .

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

good work!

just wanted to know your reasoning behind the following predictions:

why Quinn and not Russell to Oakland,

I just think that Quinn is the much more NFL-ready QB and fits better in what appears to be shaping up as a WCO style team. I'm very wary of fast rising QBs and Russell is just the latest one of those.That, and it's boring going with the grain all the time.

and why would Minnesota go for yet another RB, when they have 120 of them on their current roster, including Taylor with his mega contract. I understand Peterson is a very talented player, but do they really need another ( injury prone) RB?

They don't have any more RB's on the roster than any other team. And here's my breakdown of eachinner - nothing more than a spot fill journeyman.

Fason - nothing special and rumored to be a possible cut

Moore - perpetually in the doghouse, both with Tice and Childress. He's talented but just not tough enough

Taylor - I loved the CT pickup last year and he gave the Vikings everything he could. But I think a superior back like Peterson would have put up monster numbers, where Chet's were simply very good. Chet lacks the burst of an elite back. I'm playing with numbers a bit here, if you take out his 95 yarder against Seattle his YPC was only 3.7 - which isn't great. He wore down as the season went on, like any lone feature back would, so he could either USE a good #2 back, or BE a great #2 back to shoulder the load .

And with McKinnie and Hutch, that line should be a DOMINANT run blocking line, at least on that side. I believe Taylor made the bulk of his yards behind them. While Taylor ran tough and did the best he could, you have to think there were some long runs left on the table that AD would have converted.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Taylor - I loved the CT pickup last year and he gave the Vikings everything he could. But I think a superior back like Peterson would have put up monster numbers, where Chet's were simply very good. Chet lacks the burst of an elite back. I'm playing with numbers a bit here, if you take out his 95 yarder against Seattle his YPC was only 3.7 - which isn't great. He wore down as the season went on, like any lone feature back would, so he could either USE a good #2 back, or BE a great #2 back to shoulder the load .

And with McKinnie and Hutch, that line should be a DOMINANT run blocking line, at least on that side. I believe Taylor made the bulk of his yards behind them. While Taylor ran tough and did the best he could, you have to think there were some long runs left on the table that AD would converted.

Exactomundo!

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Well written Jason...I don't think there's a snowball's chance the Eagles draft Meachem, but I wouldn't mind being proven wrong particularly if Willis is long gone as he probably will be.

Read this on Benmaller.com today. What can anyone tell me about this guy?

The Eagles gave LB Ryan Fowler a four-year offer sheet worth $10.5 million, including $4 million for the 2007 season. ... As for Fowler, the Eagles obviously believe the former undrafted free agent out of Duke has a chance to replace either strongside linebacker Dhani Jones or middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter as a starter or they would not have guaranteed him so much money.

They liked Gocong too, right? Is LB really that high of a priority for this team?

 

[John Maddens Lunchbox]

Just one comment. I don't think Jacksonville will take a WR.

Matt Jones is in year 3, Reggie Williams & Wilford are in year 4 (providing Wilford comes back). 3 1st round picks on WRs in 4 years is not gonna happen. They may grab one with R2, 3 or 4, but not 1.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Just one comment. I don't think Jacksonville will take a WR.Matt Jones is in year 3, Reggie Williams & Wilford are in year 4 (providing Wilford comes back). 3 1st round picks on WRs in 4 years is not gonna happen. They may grab one with R2, 3 or 4, but not 1.

I don't care when they were drafted, they all are average at best and none stretch the field.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Great mock, but I don't see Pittsburgh going for a C in the first with the signing of Mahan.

Well. It was valid when I finished it on Friday!And I'd have a better chance of predicting when Jesus is coming back than who the Patriots are going to draft.

Excellent mock Jason. I immediately noticed the Pittsburgh signing of Mahan and was going to ask when you did the mock since that was a late signing. The only other minor thing I might change is Gaines Adams swapped with Jamaal Anderson. I think both Anderson and Adams will be beasts so it could go either way. Then Cincy took Jonathan Joseph with their first pick last year and he has been solid. I don't know if Leon would fall that far, Buffalo losing Clements would jump on him IMHO. They would have a shot at Bush or one of the other second tier RBs in the second round. I think Lina goes safety, if Landry falls to them its a lock but they might even take a stab at Reggie Nelson whose stock is rising. And do you think Chicago takes another first round D-lineman? I don't know their needs but they have taken a hard line stance against caving into Briggs' contract demands for two seasons and I'm sure they can look forward to the same thing next year. They got rid of TJ for that reason and I think they might look for insurance if someone is there. But I must say its the best damn mock draft I've seen to date, puts all others to shame.

 

[Construction Man Jim]

20. N.Y. Giants - Lawrence Timmons, LB - Florida StateThis is a team that is in full-blown implosion mode. They lost top weapon Tiki Barber, their WR's are bad as a whole, the linebacking corps is a wreck, Petitgout was lost to the Bucs and Whitfield retired, and their defensive backfield is awful. Tom Coughlin has no chance and the new GM has a lot of work to do. I pulled out the Magic 8 Ball for this one, and it told me to take Timmons. It didn't give me a reason. M8B is pretty limited in its responses.

Some comments:Agree WR needs to be upgraded. There's no guarantee Toomer can come back and perform at the same level. Plax and Moss are the only two that can be counted on to be part of the WR corps going forward. Tyree is a lock to make the roster because of special teams but is never going to be a factor in the passing game. And they like Anthony Mix who was on the PS last year. Still, they may add a vet FA AND use a first day draft pick. Jason Hill, Anthony Gonzalez and Aundrae Allison would be good fits in the second round.They are definitely missing a couple pieces at LB but Pierce is solid in the middle and the leader of the defense. Wilkinson still has a lot of potential. They like Blackburn a lot. And there's talk of Kiwanuka playing some at SLB.Pettigout was not "lost" to the Bucs. He was cut. The timing of the move was telling. The Giants would not have made that move when they did and gone into the uncertainty of FA and the draft if they were not confident that David Diehl and/ or Guy Whimper could fill the void at LT. (Diehl moved to LT in the second half of the week 15 game against Philly and started the last two regular season games and the playoff game -- and was solid there).Whitfield was going to be cut but chose to retire instead.The secondary was certainly a weakness last season but a big part of the problem was Tim Lewis's scheme (the patented "Bend & Break Defense"). There isn't a complete lack of talent going forward. Madison is fine as a veteran presence for one more year and McQuarters is adequate depth. There's also some good young talent at CB. It's too early to give up on Corey Webster. It's expected Spagnulo will employ more man coverage and that's his strength. Kevin Dockery showed good tenacity and a nose for the ball and got a lot of PT as an UDRFA last year. And EJ Underwood was starting in the dime package at the end of last pre-season before getting injured and being placed on IR. Gibril Wilson is an above average starter at SS. The real problem is at FS where Will Demps was wholly inadequate. If the Giants were able to add a play maker at FS, like a Reggie Nelson, that would go a long way to transforming the entire unit.To sum up I'd say top three needs are LB, WR, FS but CB and DT are definitely in play. And as we witnessed last year they will draft BPA in the first round regardless of position or need.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

20. N.Y. Giants - Lawrence Timmons, LB - Florida StateThis is a team that is in full-blown implosion mode. They lost top weapon Tiki Barber, their WR's are bad as a whole, the linebacking corps is a wreck, Petitgout was lost to the Bucs and Whitfield retired, and their defensive backfield is awful. Tom Coughlin has no chance and the new GM has a lot of work to do. I pulled out the Magic 8 Ball for this one, and it told me to take Timmons. It didn't give me a reason. M8B is pretty limited in its responses.

Some comments:Agree WR needs to be upgraded. There's no guarantee Toomer can come back and perform at the same level. Plax and Moss are the only two that can be counted on to be part of the WR corps going forward. Tyree is a lock to make the roster because of special teams but is never going to be a factor in the passing game. And they like Anthony Mix who was on the PS last year. Still, they may add a vet FA AND use a first day draft pick. Jason Hill, Anthony Gonzalez and Aundrae Allison would be good fits in the second round.They are definitely missing a couple pieces at LB but Pierce is solid in the middle and the leader of the defense. Wilkinson still has a lot of potential. They like Blackburn a lot. And there's talk of Kiwanuka playing some at SLB.Pettigout was not "lost" to the Bucs. He was cut. The timing of the move was telling. The Giants would not have made that move when they did and gone into the uncertainty of FA and the draft if they were not confident that David Diehl and/ or Guy Whimper could fill the void at LT. (Diehl moved to LT in the second half of the week 15 game against Philly and started the last two regular season games and the playoff game -- and was solid there).Whitfield was going to be cut but chose to retire instead.The secondary was certainly a weakness last season but a big part of the problem was Tim Lewis's scheme (the patented "Bend & Break Defense"). There isn't a complete lack of talent going forward. Madison is fine as a veteran presence for one more year and McQuarters is adequate depth. There's also some good young talent at CB. It's too early to give up on Corey Webster. It's expected Spagnulo will employ more man coverage and that's his strength. Kevin Dockery showed good tenacity and a nose for the ball and got a lot of PT as an UDRFA last year. And EJ Underwood was starting in the dime package at the end of last pre-season before getting injured and being placed on IR. Gibril Wilson is an above average starter at SS. The real problem is at FS where Will Demps was wholly inadequate. If the Giants were able to add a play maker at FS, like a Reggie Nelson, that would go a long way to transforming the entire unit.To sum up I'd say top three needs are LB, WR, FS but CB and DT are definitely in play. And as we witnessed last year they will draft BPA in the first round regardless of position or need.

Great analysis. Antonio Pierce is a great player, and I was screaming for the Vikes to sign him (they almost got him) a when he was a FA, but Red McCombs wouldn't pay the up front money, so he went to the 'Gints.Edit: Do you still believe the philosophy is BPA, given that it's a new GM?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

But I must say its the best damn mock draft I've seen to date, puts all others to shame.

You're just saying that because I had the Browns take a QB.

 

[wadegarrett]

Jason? My whole mental image is now blown to pieces.

And while I agree the Browns would take Russell if he's there, I would rather (aside from trading down) they pick Thomas instead.

 

[Construction Man Jim]

Great analysis. Antonio Pierce is a great player, and I was screaming for the Vikes to sign him (they almost got him) a when he was a FA, but Red McCombs wouldn't pay the up front money, so he went to the 'Gints.Edit: Do you still believe the philosophy is BPA, given that it's a new GM?

Yes, but within reason. I doubt they'll go DE or QB real high. Keep in mind Reese has been running the draft since 2003, so I wouldn't expect any radical changes in philosophy.Fortunately for the Giants the strengths of this draft align pretty well with their needs.BTW based on where you've got the other guys slotted I think Timmons is a pretty good call. He's definitely a legitimate target/ potential pick. Other options: Willis would be ideal but he'll probably be long gone. Posluszny is a possibility. Chris Houston is likely the one corner they'd consider in the first round. The top WRs will get consideration. And as I mentioned Nelson would fill a big hole.

 

[Bankerguy]

Andy,

First off, nice work. Also from other threads, I know that you hate picking for Dallas. So, I wanted to share my opinion of the pick.

I personally love the pick of Blalock even after the signing of L. Davis for RG, and I would personally still take Blalock for LG. However, the Cowboys have a lot of money spent on the line already (Kosier would then be a fairly high priced back up).

I can see them now focusing on (CB/Pass rusher/WR). Just my 0.02.

Keep the good stuff coming Andy.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Andy,First off, nice work. Also from other threads, I know that you hate picking for Dallas. So, I wanted to share my opinion of the pick.I personally love the pick of Blalock even after the signing of L. Davis for RG, and I would personally still take Blalock for LG. However, the Cowboys have a lot of money spent on the line already (Kosier would then be a fairly high priced back up). I can see them now focusing on (CB/Pass rusher/WR). Just my 0.02.Keep the good stuff coming Andy.

The contract they gave one of the guys (don't remember which off the top) recently was only for two years. Who was that?

 

[Bankerguy]

Andy,First off, nice work. Also from other threads, I know that you hate picking for Dallas. So, I wanted to share my opinion of the pick.I personally love the pick of Blalock even after the signing of L. Davis for RG, and I would personally still take Blalock for LG. However, the Cowboys have a lot of money spent on the line already (Kosier would then be a fairly high priced back up). I can see them now focusing on (CB/Pass rushing LB/WR). Just my 0.02.Keep the good stuff coming Andy.

The contract they gave one of the guys (don't remember which off the top) recently was only for two years. Who was that?

Columbo was just brought back at RT. I thought 3 yrs...but you could be right at 2 yrs.They also re-signed Gurode at C.Just signed Davis at RG.Flo isn't going anywhere at LT.Kosier was signed last year for a decent contract over 3-4 years.I guess I'm just saying although I think Blalock would be a huge upgrade over Kosier (and I would love it)......I don't see them doing this now.They also just lost Fowler to Philly and are becoming thin at LB. Again...jmo.

 

[cstu]

Just one comment. I don't think Jacksonville will take a WR.Matt Jones is in year 3, Reggie Williams & Wilford are in year 4 (providing Wilford comes back). 3 1st round picks on WRs in 4 years is not gonna happen. They may grab one with R2, 3 or 4, but not 1.

I don't care when they were drafted, they all are average at best and none stretch the field.

I see Ginn replacing Wilford as the #3 to get some speed on the field. Ginn's main value will be as a returner and should pay immediate benefits.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

But I must say its the best damn mock draft I've seen to date, puts all others to shame.

You're just saying that because I had the Browns take a QB.

Damn skippy. In his seventies, Wierd Al saw Lamar Hunt pass away this past year. He needs to win now and I don't see him taking any chances on a QB that he is unsure of. He hasn't known JaMarcus since he was 14 as Phil Savage has. Phil knows his talent and also knows his laxidaisical work habits. He's better versed on Russell than anyone in the league. Word is Savage personally guaranteed Russell he'd fall no further than the third pick so he must fell confident he can get past his work habits and cul his talent in time. Last year Davis got burned going with a strong armed athletic QB instead of taking the more cerebral and NFL ready rookie Matt Lienart. I can see Al passing on Russell and taking Quinn. It makes much more sense but then again we are talking about Al Davis.Mike Martz is the only offensive coordinator/head coach in history to take two QBs off the waiver wire and transform them into Pro Bowl QBs in a three year time span. He got a 4,000 yard passing year out of Kitna and he's got two guys on his roster that he likes. Not only doesn't Russell fit Martz's offense I don't think Detroit would find a buyer for him. I agree with you that they take the pass rusher. I'm surprised you haven't heard from the OLT side so I'll take up that argument. - The Oakland Raiders with the first pick in the draft gave up 72 sacks- The Detroit Lions with the second pick gave up 64 sacks- The Cleveland Browns gave up 54 sacks- The Oakland Raiders averaged 63.4 yards rushing per game- The Detroit Lions had the lowest rushing yards in the league with 60.7 yards per game- The Cleveland Browns 83.4 yards per gameMany Browns fan cry abut the offensive line but Detroit started two Cleveland castoffs last year and just cut Ross Verba. George Foster isn't even as good as Verba so I don't buy that they have upgraded at all. Martz had Orlando Pace as his OLT at St. Louis. Backus isn't a top OLT, he'd be better suited at ORT with them taking Joe Thomas as their OLT so they could stack the edges. Having said all of that, I think Gaines Adams could be a special type of pass rusher and I think he could be the pick.

 

[J R]

Not that I disagree with your pick for the Rams but it will be hard for them to pass on Patrick Willis.I do agree that we could use a stud DT but with Kennedy and Glover we are still descent. If the Rams pick Willis we could move Witherspoon to outside LB (where he should be) and we make the D much stronger.Like I said I don't disagree with your pick but as a Rams fan I'd rather see Willis.Nice Mock

It was a strong consideration, but I guess I'm holding out hope that one of my favorite players from last year's draft, Jon Alston, gets a chance.

I like the Rams pick:- after the season, Haslett seemed to reiterate that they like Witherspoon in the middle.- I read sometime in the StL P-D that the Rams see the DTs in FA as a weak group - so that's a target in the draft. I can't imagine that anyone watched Kennedy play last year and didn't think, huh, think we've had about enough of that.I haven't read much about Alston, but I thought at one time at least they were considering moving him to S. So far it looks like he's going to be left at WLB - if they keep Witherspoon in the middle you gotta think he's going to get a chance. Tinoisamoa seems to always get hurt. (Would love to see Bob Magaw chime in . . .)Solid mock - mock drafts mean nothing to me without some written analysis to go with it. This is a great read.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Mock v2.0 has been sent to the editor (Sigmund Bloom).

It has many twists and turns and surprises thats GUARANTEED to cause many , , , , and maybe even a couple .

Coming soon to a NFLDraftguys.com website near you.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Mock v2.0 has been sent to the editor (Sigmund Bloom).

I have a copy. Can I post it?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Mock v2.0 has been sent to the editor (Sigmund Bloom).

I have a copy. Can I post it?

Absolutely not! (I know you wouldn't.)

 

[tlovyankee]

Thanks for the copy CC. Andy you got some big Ba*** on some of those picks.

 

[pgreenfan]