massraider
Footballguy
Doing a mock draft before free agency is an exercise in futility. Then again, doing a mock draft the night before the draft is also an exercise in futility, so why not in February, when draft boards aren't even set yet?
The annoying thing about mock drafts, is that draftniks are victims of group think. One guy put Tunsil at #1 two months ago, and everyone follows suit, and no one questions it. Josh Norris recently did a mock draft with no QBs in the top 15, and good for him. Is he correct? Nah, but hell, at least he was original.
The story of this draft is the 3 QBs, and the massive talent level of the defensive tackle class. Defensive tackle is so deep, we will see 3rd rounders that people are going to be happy with. Good luck figuring out what order they will actually go in, but my rule of thumb is that the 2-gap DTs will slide, and the penetrators will rise.
1. Titans-Joey Bosa--Mike Mularkey retained as head coach, dropping the interim label. Can you feel the excitement?
Titans have a new GM, Jon Robinson, who spent two seasons in Tampa, after twelve in New England. In New England, he learned that big defenders are better than small, and in Tampa he learned you can burn money in free agency if you aren't careful. Bosa is nice in any scheme, and the Titans hope he can be their JJ Watt. He's a DE that also happens to be white, so you know, pretty much the same guy. The Titans go and get another tackle in free agency, and build rtheir D around Bosa's all around game and hustle. He is already their best front 7 player.
2. Browns-Jared Goff--I know, a chalk pick. But I'm not going to be contrarian for the hell of it. I do believe that everyone is right, a QB is the pick. Hue knows he can throw McCown to the wolves for half a year or so, and he's not keeping his job if he doesn't get a QB. Cleveland has hired a super-computer as the new GM, and after entering in some data (beep beep boop), the Browns realize that Goff has the best numbers when under pressure. Good numbers when things are going bad? Welcome to Cleveland, son!! As a failsafe, HAL the GM hires 10 actors to pose as homeless men outside of Haslam's house, all of whom whisper 'Goff' over and over as they rub feces on their bodies.
3. Chargers-Myles Jack--Tunsil the obvious pick here, right? Well, the Chargers spent 8 mill to bring in Russell Okung at LT. Okung has trouble staying healthy, so he fits in great with the Chargers O-line. Jack is special. There wasn't a Myles Jack in the last draft, or the one before that. He's a special, special player. He also might be the best RB on the Chargers as well, which is a nice bonus. The Chargers run a 3-4, and have Perryman and Te'o, so how does Jack fit? He fits. Every team needs a Myles Jack. You don't pass on Jack because you have Manti Te'o, for pete's sake.
4. Cowboys-Jalen Ramsey--Quarterback? When will people learn? Jones loves Romo, and believes this is a playoff team with his QB healthy, especially in that sorry division. Looks like Byron Jones is playing safety, so the need for a CB is still there. Ramsey is a potential All-Pro at corner or safety, and is as safe as it gets. This pick is real interesting if Jack and Ramsey are both there.
5. Jaguars-DeForest Buckner--Man, their defense was bad last year. How do you hide your awful back 7? By improving the front 4. Dante Fowler returns, to hopefully provide some edge rush, and while everyone assumes Buckner goes to a 3-4, he's a fit in any scheme. He's better than Armstead was last year, and can play base end opposite Fowler, and help shore up the rush defense. Jacksonville has quietly drafted as well as anyone the last three years, and I look forward to seeing how they go this year.
6. Ravens-Laremy Tunsil--In classic Newsome fashion, he sits tight, and lets the draft come to him. The special defenders are gone, the Ravens offense needs some help, and WRs and D-linemen will be there later. OT isn't nearly that deep this year, so value matches need matches positional value. Newsome really wants a pass rusher, but the offensive coaches show him a film of Joe Flacco running a 40 yard dash, and Ozzie comes to his sense.
7. 49ers-Paxton Lynch--I think QB is a mortal lock here. Kaepernick is gone. He really, really hates the front office, and they don't really like him too much either. Ugly divorce on the way. Chip really likes the way Paxton Lynch moves, but really doesn't like his downfield accuracy. Wentz is the darling right now, because Lynch played bad against Auburn, and Wentz was nice at the Senior Bowl. But just because Mayock is lisp-ing sweet nothings in Wentz's ear doesn't mean that Chip is swayed. Chip gets his big mobile QB a year later. Blaine Gabbert is not the reason you pass on a QB. In fact, he's the reason you take one. Treadwell here? 'No Way That Happens!!!!'
8. Dolphins-Vernon Hargraves III--Dolphins are a fun team to think about, as they can go in a lot of different ways, sort of like a Tannehill deep ball (haw haw haw). They can really go in a lot of different ways, and I am gutlessly going with BPA. Do they need a corner? Everyone needs a corner. There's a little paralysis by analysis with Hargraves. He's been kickin butt in the SEC since he was a freshman, and born and raised in Florida.
9. Buccaneers-Shaq Lawson--Noah Spence tore things up at the Senior Bowl, in one on ones, when edge rushers should tear things up. But he's not a DE, he's a 3-4 OLB. No one claims to love Lawson, a lot of people think he's overrated. Well, so are all defensive ends. True 4-3 DEs that can play strong side and get after the passer are rare, and they don't make it to free agency. Gerald McCoy needs some help.
10. Giants-Mackensie Alexander--Jerry Reece needs to have a good draft. Giants need a lot of players. I am sure the 'For Sale' sign is hanging outside this pick, and if anyone is shopping for Wentz, this might be the spot. Rodgers-Cromarie is old, Amukamara is a free agent, and Lawson gets snaked right in front of them. Alexander has no stats, because no one tested him. He's a yapper, loves to challenge WRs, and will start from Day 1.
11. Bears-Carson Wentz--Oh yeah, that just happened. Cutler had a nice bounce back year, but let's all be real here, he's still Jay Cutler. The fans don't trust him, his teammates don't love him, the media hates, him, and I bet his wife is cheating on him. The Bears can get out of his contract next year, Wentz can sit for a half season or so, and the Bears can start to rebuild around him. I love this pick for Chicago, as the cold weather team gets their Roethlisberger, minus the sexual assaults.
12. Saints-Noah Spence--Faced with the worst cap situation in the league, the Saints needs will likely remain unchanged at the draft. Spence is a speedball pass rusher, and should look great on artificial turf. And man, could the Saints use him. Junior Galette's contract still hangs over the Saints like the grim reaper, they aren't replacing him with a free agent. Spence had trouble with drugs in college, but booze is the drug of choice in Nawlins, so what could go wrong?
13. Eagles-Taylor Decker--I expect Decker to rise this spring, as people get more info from NFL teams on Ronnie Stanley. Decker can play either OT spot, and has a Philly mentality. Jason Peters is entering the home stretch, and the Eagles secure their bookend OTs for 10 years (w/Lane Johnson). They could use Treadwell as well, but they have spent a lot in draft capital in WR the last couple years, they need the young bucks to step up.
14 Raiders-Jaylon Smith--Jaylon was nice enough to blow out his knee this winter, allowing his draft stock to fall enough for Oakland to take him. If Gurley can come back after a few games, and run over people, the Raiders can wait two months for Jaylon to fly around the field. Am I homer, allowing Smith to fall to Oakland? Yes, yes I am.
15. Rams-Laquon Treadwell--Whoever plays QB is going to need some targets, and tiny Tavon ain't enough. It's also conceivable that they trade up for a QB, or go after Marvin Jones in free agency, and take Eli Apple here. The lack of offensive skill players taking pressure off Gurley is embarrassing. Britt is a free agent, and the rest of their WRs would be OK if Tom Brady was here. He's not, so the Rams take the best WR in the class.
16. Lions-Sheldon Rankins--The DT gold rush starts here. Through piss-poor cap management, the Lions let Suh and Fairly go, so they start over with Rankins, a monster 3-tech, and will take pressure off Ansah. You could argue for about 3 other DTs here, and I won't argue. But Rankins has more pass rush than Robinson, less warts than Nkemdiche, and is a fast riser.
17. Falcons-A'Shawn Robinson--The Falcons have a defensive-minded head coach, with no defense. But there's some bodies along that line that are interesting, the cupboard isn't bare. Quin wants disruptor's up the middle, and Robinson is a man, man.
18. Colts-Ronnie Stanley--Irsay wants Zeke Elliott. Wants him bad. The coach tells him he can get Henry in the 2nd round. Irsay doesn't care. The coaches sigh, and tell him, fine, you win. As Irsay grabs his iPhone to Tweet the news, the coaches run an end around, draft their athletic LT to protect Luck, and Irsay tries to delete the Tweet. Too late, it's been re-Tweeted 8,000 times already. Hilarity ensues.
19. Bills-Kevin Dodd--Mario Williams and Kyle Williams are probably gone, and Rex wants D-linemen to make his defense go. Dodd is a LE, and slots in nicely next across from Hughes. He is bigger than Ogbah, and has a motor that revs faster. Rex is thinking about DT, but likes his chances of getting a 2-gapper later in the draft. Ragland makes too much sense here to actually happen.
20. Jets-Eli Apple--Apple is going to rise, as he has the best physical tools this side of Jalen Ramsey. The Jets aren't in love with Jack Conklin, and will roll with Brick for another year. They can use an edge guy as well, but Bowles trusts his scheme to create pressure, and it's easier to find a 3-4 OLB than a potential stud corner. If Stanley falls here, this would be interesting.
21. Redskins--Reggie Ragland--McCloughan has stabilized the Skins, and he gets his David Harris in the middle of the line. He has no ILB he likes, and he gets a big ILB that knows the 3-4. Ragland ain't covering Ertz 30 yards down the field, but he can fight off guards and centers, and offers a surprising amount of pass rush. Nice solid pick for the Skins.
22. Texans-Ezekial Elliott--The Texans can make this pick in .02 seconds, but they get to watch themselves on ESPN for 10 minutes, so why not milk it? Any offensive position here works, feel free to fill in your favorite player from that side of the ball.
23. Vikings-Corey Coleman--Whoa now. Matt Khalil has sucked out loud, and Conklin and Spriggs are sitting there, but their upside is workman-like starters. If Coleman was 6'3'', he'd be a top 10 pick. He's a little bulldog, can fly, but does much work close to the LOS, where Teddy is most comfortable.
24. Bengals-Robert Nkemdiche--Maaan, you think this team cares about his character concerns? Hell to the Naw. They'll hook him up with Pac-Man's clean piss guy, make sure he gets a hotel room on the 1st floor, and turn him loose on quarterbacks.
25. Steelers-Darian Thompson--Thompson is big time. He's a ball hawk, a team leader, and while he's no Polamalu, he offers range none of their current free safeties have.
26. Seahawks-Darron Lee--NFC West opponents better hope this doesn't happen. Lee is a slightly undersized WLB, and he'll get on the field for three plays right away. They have other needs more pressing now, but the Seahawks take BPA, and Lee is that guy.
27. Packers-Leonard Floyd--You can make an argument for a lot of guys here, and I'm not sure I love the pick, but when in doubt, go with a pass rusher. I could see a DT here as well, as the Raji marriage finally comes to a quiet end.
28. Chiefs-Jack Conklin--Conklin makes sense here, and the Chiefs have a need at both spots. Eric Fisher has not worked out, Conklin is a tough scrapper and will start right away somewhere.
29. Cardinals-Jarran Reed--Immovable. The linebackers are gone, so the Cards will try and keep Buchanon clean, by putting the Alabama strongman in front of him. Reed won't get a ton of sacks, but that's not his job here. Tie up blockers, Jarran, just clog the middle. Lok out for Joshua Perry here.
30. Panthers-Jason Spriggs--This may seem like a reach, but I am betting by draft day, it won't. There's a major drop off at OT after Spriggs, and the Panthers could upgrade two spots this offseason, conceivably
31. Broncos-Emmanuel Ogbah--Sick defense, with a lot of free agents. Does he fit the 3-4 exactly? Nah, probably not, but this happens every year. They'll make it work. Malik and Ware won't be there much longer, and Ogbah can work inside of Ray and Von, and create much havoc.
Just missed: Andrew Billings, William Jackson III, Vernon Butler, Hunter Henry, Josh Doctson, Michael Thomas, Johnathan Bullard, Joshua Perry.
Please comment, and I will explain why you're wrong, and I am totally correct.
The annoying thing about mock drafts, is that draftniks are victims of group think. One guy put Tunsil at #1 two months ago, and everyone follows suit, and no one questions it. Josh Norris recently did a mock draft with no QBs in the top 15, and good for him. Is he correct? Nah, but hell, at least he was original.
The story of this draft is the 3 QBs, and the massive talent level of the defensive tackle class. Defensive tackle is so deep, we will see 3rd rounders that people are going to be happy with. Good luck figuring out what order they will actually go in, but my rule of thumb is that the 2-gap DTs will slide, and the penetrators will rise.
1. Titans-Joey Bosa--Mike Mularkey retained as head coach, dropping the interim label. Can you feel the excitement?
Titans have a new GM, Jon Robinson, who spent two seasons in Tampa, after twelve in New England. In New England, he learned that big defenders are better than small, and in Tampa he learned you can burn money in free agency if you aren't careful. Bosa is nice in any scheme, and the Titans hope he can be their JJ Watt. He's a DE that also happens to be white, so you know, pretty much the same guy. The Titans go and get another tackle in free agency, and build rtheir D around Bosa's all around game and hustle. He is already their best front 7 player.2. Browns-Jared Goff--I know, a chalk pick. But I'm not going to be contrarian for the hell of it. I do believe that everyone is right, a QB is the pick. Hue knows he can throw McCown to the wolves for half a year or so, and he's not keeping his job if he doesn't get a QB. Cleveland has hired a super-computer as the new GM, and after entering in some data (beep beep boop), the Browns realize that Goff has the best numbers when under pressure. Good numbers when things are going bad? Welcome to Cleveland, son!! As a failsafe, HAL the GM hires 10 actors to pose as homeless men outside of Haslam's house, all of whom whisper 'Goff' over and over as they rub feces on their bodies.
3. Chargers-Myles Jack--Tunsil the obvious pick here, right? Well, the Chargers spent 8 mill to bring in Russell Okung at LT. Okung has trouble staying healthy, so he fits in great with the Chargers O-line. Jack is special. There wasn't a Myles Jack in the last draft, or the one before that. He's a special, special player. He also might be the best RB on the Chargers as well, which is a nice bonus. The Chargers run a 3-4, and have Perryman and Te'o, so how does Jack fit? He fits. Every team needs a Myles Jack. You don't pass on Jack because you have Manti Te'o, for pete's sake.
4. Cowboys-Jalen Ramsey--Quarterback? When will people learn? Jones loves Romo, and believes this is a playoff team with his QB healthy, especially in that sorry division. Looks like Byron Jones is playing safety, so the need for a CB is still there. Ramsey is a potential All-Pro at corner or safety, and is as safe as it gets. This pick is real interesting if Jack and Ramsey are both there.
5. Jaguars-DeForest Buckner--Man, their defense was bad last year. How do you hide your awful back 7? By improving the front 4. Dante Fowler returns, to hopefully provide some edge rush, and while everyone assumes Buckner goes to a 3-4, he's a fit in any scheme. He's better than Armstead was last year, and can play base end opposite Fowler, and help shore up the rush defense. Jacksonville has quietly drafted as well as anyone the last three years, and I look forward to seeing how they go this year.
6. Ravens-Laremy Tunsil--In classic Newsome fashion, he sits tight, and lets the draft come to him. The special defenders are gone, the Ravens offense needs some help, and WRs and D-linemen will be there later. OT isn't nearly that deep this year, so value matches need matches positional value. Newsome really wants a pass rusher, but the offensive coaches show him a film of Joe Flacco running a 40 yard dash, and Ozzie comes to his sense.
7. 49ers-Paxton Lynch--I think QB is a mortal lock here. Kaepernick is gone. He really, really hates the front office, and they don't really like him too much either. Ugly divorce on the way. Chip really likes the way Paxton Lynch moves, but really doesn't like his downfield accuracy. Wentz is the darling right now, because Lynch played bad against Auburn, and Wentz was nice at the Senior Bowl. But just because Mayock is lisp-ing sweet nothings in Wentz's ear doesn't mean that Chip is swayed. Chip gets his big mobile QB a year later. Blaine Gabbert is not the reason you pass on a QB. In fact, he's the reason you take one. Treadwell here? 'No Way That Happens!!!!'
8. Dolphins-Vernon Hargraves III--Dolphins are a fun team to think about, as they can go in a lot of different ways, sort of like a Tannehill deep ball (haw haw haw). They can really go in a lot of different ways, and I am gutlessly going with BPA. Do they need a corner? Everyone needs a corner. There's a little paralysis by analysis with Hargraves. He's been kickin butt in the SEC since he was a freshman, and born and raised in Florida.
9. Buccaneers-Shaq Lawson--Noah Spence tore things up at the Senior Bowl, in one on ones, when edge rushers should tear things up. But he's not a DE, he's a 3-4 OLB. No one claims to love Lawson, a lot of people think he's overrated. Well, so are all defensive ends. True 4-3 DEs that can play strong side and get after the passer are rare, and they don't make it to free agency. Gerald McCoy needs some help.
10. Giants-Mackensie Alexander--Jerry Reece needs to have a good draft. Giants need a lot of players. I am sure the 'For Sale' sign is hanging outside this pick, and if anyone is shopping for Wentz, this might be the spot. Rodgers-Cromarie is old, Amukamara is a free agent, and Lawson gets snaked right in front of them. Alexander has no stats, because no one tested him. He's a yapper, loves to challenge WRs, and will start from Day 1.
11. Bears-Carson Wentz--Oh yeah, that just happened. Cutler had a nice bounce back year, but let's all be real here, he's still Jay Cutler. The fans don't trust him, his teammates don't love him, the media hates, him, and I bet his wife is cheating on him. The Bears can get out of his contract next year, Wentz can sit for a half season or so, and the Bears can start to rebuild around him. I love this pick for Chicago, as the cold weather team gets their Roethlisberger, minus the sexual assaults.
12. Saints-Noah Spence--Faced with the worst cap situation in the league, the Saints needs will likely remain unchanged at the draft. Spence is a speedball pass rusher, and should look great on artificial turf. And man, could the Saints use him. Junior Galette's contract still hangs over the Saints like the grim reaper, they aren't replacing him with a free agent. Spence had trouble with drugs in college, but booze is the drug of choice in Nawlins, so what could go wrong?
13. Eagles-Taylor Decker--I expect Decker to rise this spring, as people get more info from NFL teams on Ronnie Stanley. Decker can play either OT spot, and has a Philly mentality. Jason Peters is entering the home stretch, and the Eagles secure their bookend OTs for 10 years (w/Lane Johnson). They could use Treadwell as well, but they have spent a lot in draft capital in WR the last couple years, they need the young bucks to step up.
14 Raiders-Jaylon Smith--Jaylon was nice enough to blow out his knee this winter, allowing his draft stock to fall enough for Oakland to take him. If Gurley can come back after a few games, and run over people, the Raiders can wait two months for Jaylon to fly around the field. Am I homer, allowing Smith to fall to Oakland? Yes, yes I am.
15. Rams-Laquon Treadwell--Whoever plays QB is going to need some targets, and tiny Tavon ain't enough. It's also conceivable that they trade up for a QB, or go after Marvin Jones in free agency, and take Eli Apple here. The lack of offensive skill players taking pressure off Gurley is embarrassing. Britt is a free agent, and the rest of their WRs would be OK if Tom Brady was here. He's not, so the Rams take the best WR in the class.
16. Lions-Sheldon Rankins--The DT gold rush starts here. Through piss-poor cap management, the Lions let Suh and Fairly go, so they start over with Rankins, a monster 3-tech, and will take pressure off Ansah. You could argue for about 3 other DTs here, and I won't argue. But Rankins has more pass rush than Robinson, less warts than Nkemdiche, and is a fast riser.
17. Falcons-A'Shawn Robinson--The Falcons have a defensive-minded head coach, with no defense. But there's some bodies along that line that are interesting, the cupboard isn't bare. Quin wants disruptor's up the middle, and Robinson is a man, man.
18. Colts-Ronnie Stanley--Irsay wants Zeke Elliott. Wants him bad. The coach tells him he can get Henry in the 2nd round. Irsay doesn't care. The coaches sigh, and tell him, fine, you win. As Irsay grabs his iPhone to Tweet the news, the coaches run an end around, draft their athletic LT to protect Luck, and Irsay tries to delete the Tweet. Too late, it's been re-Tweeted 8,000 times already. Hilarity ensues.
19. Bills-Kevin Dodd--Mario Williams and Kyle Williams are probably gone, and Rex wants D-linemen to make his defense go. Dodd is a LE, and slots in nicely next across from Hughes. He is bigger than Ogbah, and has a motor that revs faster. Rex is thinking about DT, but likes his chances of getting a 2-gapper later in the draft. Ragland makes too much sense here to actually happen.
20. Jets-Eli Apple--Apple is going to rise, as he has the best physical tools this side of Jalen Ramsey. The Jets aren't in love with Jack Conklin, and will roll with Brick for another year. They can use an edge guy as well, but Bowles trusts his scheme to create pressure, and it's easier to find a 3-4 OLB than a potential stud corner. If Stanley falls here, this would be interesting.
21. Redskins--Reggie Ragland--McCloughan has stabilized the Skins, and he gets his David Harris in the middle of the line. He has no ILB he likes, and he gets a big ILB that knows the 3-4. Ragland ain't covering Ertz 30 yards down the field, but he can fight off guards and centers, and offers a surprising amount of pass rush. Nice solid pick for the Skins.
22. Texans-Ezekial Elliott--The Texans can make this pick in .02 seconds, but they get to watch themselves on ESPN for 10 minutes, so why not milk it? Any offensive position here works, feel free to fill in your favorite player from that side of the ball.
23. Vikings-Corey Coleman--Whoa now. Matt Khalil has sucked out loud, and Conklin and Spriggs are sitting there, but their upside is workman-like starters. If Coleman was 6'3'', he'd be a top 10 pick. He's a little bulldog, can fly, but does much work close to the LOS, where Teddy is most comfortable.
24. Bengals-Robert Nkemdiche--Maaan, you think this team cares about his character concerns? Hell to the Naw. They'll hook him up with Pac-Man's clean piss guy, make sure he gets a hotel room on the 1st floor, and turn him loose on quarterbacks.
25. Steelers-Darian Thompson--Thompson is big time. He's a ball hawk, a team leader, and while he's no Polamalu, he offers range none of their current free safeties have.
26. Seahawks-Darron Lee--NFC West opponents better hope this doesn't happen. Lee is a slightly undersized WLB, and he'll get on the field for three plays right away. They have other needs more pressing now, but the Seahawks take BPA, and Lee is that guy.
27. Packers-Leonard Floyd--You can make an argument for a lot of guys here, and I'm not sure I love the pick, but when in doubt, go with a pass rusher. I could see a DT here as well, as the Raji marriage finally comes to a quiet end.
28. Chiefs-Jack Conklin--Conklin makes sense here, and the Chiefs have a need at both spots. Eric Fisher has not worked out, Conklin is a tough scrapper and will start right away somewhere.
29. Cardinals-Jarran Reed--Immovable. The linebackers are gone, so the Cards will try and keep Buchanon clean, by putting the Alabama strongman in front of him. Reed won't get a ton of sacks, but that's not his job here. Tie up blockers, Jarran, just clog the middle. Lok out for Joshua Perry here.
30. Panthers-Jason Spriggs--This may seem like a reach, but I am betting by draft day, it won't. There's a major drop off at OT after Spriggs, and the Panthers could upgrade two spots this offseason, conceivably
31. Broncos-Emmanuel Ogbah--Sick defense, with a lot of free agents. Does he fit the 3-4 exactly? Nah, probably not, but this happens every year. They'll make it work. Malik and Ware won't be there much longer, and Ogbah can work inside of Ray and Von, and create much havoc.
Just missed: Andrew Billings, William Jackson III, Vernon Butler, Hunter Henry, Josh Doctson, Michael Thomas, Johnathan Bullard, Joshua Perry.
Please comment, and I will explain why you're wrong, and I am totally correct.
