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Oddsmaker Week 3 (1 Viewer)

Billy Ball is going to start playing along.. I will go 3-0 this weekI like a followsSeattleKC Cincy ( this is my five star delux play) Bet as much as your willing to lose on this game, but I don't recon you will lose.

 
Billy Ball is going to start playing along.. I will go 3-0 this weekI like a followsSeattleKC Cincy ( this is my five star delux play) Bet as much as your willing to lose on this game, but I don't recon you will lose.

 
StL -6.5

IND -13.5

CIN -3

I also like TB but I'm not laying more than 3. Should've jumped on it early, but now I might pass.

Thanks MoP

 
Couple of my buddies and I have a contest going where we pick against the spread, every game, every week, all year. All guys follow the NFL closely; one played a couple years in the NFL, and 2 worked for teams. This is year 5. I keep all the records, so I have 4 years of excel data stored up. Lifetime (almost 1000 tracked games), I'm in the lead - just under 51%. As it takes 55% to break even against the juice, it's obvious I'd be getting killed. Had I bet $110 (to win $100) on each game in Vegas, I'd be down $8,140. Collectively, we'd be down nearly $100k. I guess that's why they have such nice carpet in casinos.Long story, familar moral. If you guys want to let me join late, I'll catch up by picking every game this week. (since you know my 51% standard now...)

 
Couple of my buddies and I have a contest going where we pick against the spread, every game, every week, all year. All guys follow the NFL closely; one played a couple years in the NFL, and 2 worked for teams. This is year 5. I keep all the records, so I have 4 years of excel data stored up. Lifetime (almost 1000 tracked games), I'm in the lead - just under 51%.

As it takes 55% to break even against the juice, it's obvious I'd be getting killed. Had I bet $110 (to win $100) on each game in Vegas, I'd be down $8,140. Collectively, we'd be down nearly $100k. I guess that's why they have such nice carpet in casinos.

Long story, familar moral.

If you guys want to let me join late, I'll catch up by picking every game this week. (since you know my 51% standard now...)
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No need. Just post 3, we'll start you up.
 
3-3 (1-2 last week)This week looks tougher than last week but then again I thought last week was cake and went 1-2.Chicago +3. Bears will actually win this game I think. While the Bengals are rolling right now I just can't see them rolling it up on the Bears D. This will be a low scoring, close game and Da Bears D will score the game winner.Indy -as many as you want to give. Indy's D is for real, Cleveland's is not. Manning and co get back on track this week and put up big numbers. As for Dilfer and the Browns offense, they will quickly realize how much better Indy's D is than the scrubs from Green Bay.Pit -3 (this is a homer pick) Pitt is rolling right now on both sides of the ball. Yes NE is a major upgrade in opponent from who Pitt just played but if NE could not run on Oak or Car, they won't run on the Steelers. The Steelers secondary is not great, but will be good enough for the 22 minutes they are on the field this week.

 
tbkcminny OVERyep, services suck. 60% is what you should be aiming for, and line change is pretty important. like this kc game....gotta watch that one.good luck.

 
Week 3, the party continues!!!!!

As always, 2 teams and one over/under.

Don't like too much, didn't have one jump-out-at-me game. Actually thought KC would be giving a point or two, real surprised they're getting 3. Staying far away from that one, something smells. (unless of course I get buried on Sunday!)

Anyways, onto the pix...

Tampa Bay -3.5 @ Green Bay: Well if Cleveland can go into Lambeau and win, nothing's sacred any longer. Tampa has the D flying around again, and with the Caddy rolling along, Griese will be able to hit for some scores. Don't really see this being a close game, should be $$ in the bank.

New England +3 @ Pittsburgh: New England losing two in a row?! Not likely. Even in Pittsburgh. Forget last week's loss at Carolina, they were too interested at getting their hands on the Stillers, Big Bill will scheme enough too make Big Ben come back to reality a little bit. Remember, they beat up Tennessee and Houston, nothing to brag about, it's their first real game of the year, and NE reminds them of where the road to SB XL goes through.

UNDER 36.5 Carolina @ Miami: This is going to be one ugly mess. I would take over on the amount of punts in this game if were 40. Miami may not score, and Carolina won't put up more than 20. Seems like easy pickings.

GL to all!!

Break your book's bank! :thumbup:

 
Cin -3 Yes, they are giving up 5.4ypc. However, that is only on 32 carries. That is hardly a good measure, especially when they were up big both games, and defending against the pass. 3 of those runs ended up being fumbles recovered by the Bengals. 3/32 is almost 10%. They won't keep that pace, but I think they get a couple this week and a couple INTs as well. They pull this one off easily.STL -6 This is their first home game, and I think we see glimpses of the Rams offense of old. Pitt trounced TEN. Although they did stop BAL, that doesn't seem to be a very tough task so far. Rams take this game, and easily cover the 6. Titans will put up some numbers on offense, but not nearly enough to keep this close.CLE/IND under47. Indy will score, Cleveland won't. Just a hunch?

 
I have no good feelings about this week. Last week, the 3 just jumped out at me as the right ones. I could see being .500 after this week.Tennessee at ST.LOUIS (-6.5) - St. Louis. Arizona at SEATTLE (-6.5) - SeattleKC at DENVER (-2.5) - KC

 
My picks:Saints(NewOrleans) +3.5- Minnesota has played horribly, and they are laying more than a FG to the better team? I like those odds.Cowboys(Dallas) -6.5- An angry Parcells-coached team vs. a young team that will be lucky to win five games this year. I think Dallas wins by 10.Giants(NewYork) +6- No way is san Diego good enough to lay this kind of wood.

 
Overall against the spread: 2-1

Week 3:

Tampa Bay (-3.5) at GREEN BAY (38)

Cincinnati (-3) at CHICAGO (39)

New England at PITTSBURGH (-3)

Week 2:

Balt (-4) at TEN (36.5)

Pitt (-6) at HOUSTON (38.5)

NO at NYG: (-3) (44)

Week 1: Did Not Participate

Boot.

:popcorn:

 
Tennessee (+6.5) @ St. Louis

It's the Rams home opener and their first game of the season on turf. That offense should rack up points. The Rams defense isn't stellar, but neither is the Titans offense. They won't be able to keep pace.

My Pick: St. Louis

Cleveland (+13.5) @ Indianapolis

After pulling a big upset against the Packers on the road, Cleveland now travels to Indianapolis to face a high powered Colts offense. The Browns are improved, but they are do for a big let down after the win at Lambeau.

13.5 is a lot of points to give, but the Colts D is much improved and they have the homefield advantage. If the Bengals beat the Browns by 14 in week 1 at Cleveland, the Colts should have no problem covering this spread at home.

My Pick: Indianapolis

Carolina (-3.5) @ Miami

Carolina opened with a surprising loss at home to the Saints in week 1 then followed it up with a terrific win against the Pats in week 2. If the Panthers were due for another let down game it would have been against the Pats, not their first road game of the season in Miami.

Futhermore, the Dolphins aren't as good as their week 1 win against the Broncos looked. The way they played against the Jets is a much better reflection of what to expect from the Dolphins this season.

My Pick: Carolina

*Didn't participate Week 1

*Went 2-1 ATS last week, but missed the deadline (Took Cleveland, Cincinatti and Miami)

 
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week 1 and 2 I missed this thread. the lines here are from my local.week 3:Carolina -3.5Panthers just started the fall of a dynasty last week, they'll roll on a high for awhile. This one's gonna be a low scoring game, under might be a pretty good bet here. (36.5)Atlanta +2Vick is hurt, so he probably won't run much. Good thing they actually have a good running back besides Vick.Tampa Bay -3.5It's hard to pick against Green Bay in Green Bay, but their defense is just terrible. Their offense won't do much against this defense either unless Ahman picks up the pace in a hurry.

 
Got out of the skunk hole with 1 good pick last week ... thank gawd I don't know any bookies ... let's se if I can right the ship a little this weekCar -3.5 - Carolina proved too tough for the Pats, Miami isn't that good KC +2.5 - Has anybody else noticed KC actually do have a D this seasonTampa -3.5 - Gruden has his boy's playing very tough D and drivin' his new Caddy!

 
San Diego -6, NY has to travel cross country after a short week to play a very good team in a desperate situation. Has whoopin' written all over it.Miami +3.5, forget last year. The phins have a good D, and an adequate offense. The Panthers are coming off a huge win, and are prime for a let down on the road against a team they "should" beat.Indy -13.5, Peyton is pissed and the Browns aren't very good. i hate large spreads, but Indy's O has something to prove.

 
OK I went 3-0 last week, which means 0-3 this week. Here are the picks...St. Louis (-6 1/2) - Home opener and they get the hurting Titans. Steven Jackson will finally get a 20 + carry game and St. Louis will cover this.Denver (-2 1/2) - People will call me crazy for this one, but Denver has won the last three in this series at home by an average of 11.5 points. I will take Denver at Mile High.Since I always play one over/under, here it is:Carolina @ Miami (36 1/2) - I will take the under in this one, as it looks to be a low scoring affair.

 
CAR/MIA over: Carolina is suspectible to the big play and don't have an answer for McMicheal....hence Miami scores enough to push this over.Cinn: Chicago beat Detriot last week, not a real team. Cinny has the offensive weapons to post some points, da Bears have a rookie QB.Philly: Philly is playing better then NE. We all saw what happened in week 1.MoP...Pushes should be ties. They don't cost anything with my guy. If this wasn't the case, no one would bet a -3 spread.

 
Jacksonville (+2 1/2)-----They held Indy to 10 points at Indy last week. Pennington doesn't have the arm strength to air it out. Curtis Martin is dinged up. The Jets haven't put things together yet this year.

Jax......24 N.Y. Jets.......13

Cincinnati (-3)------Cincy is one of the better offenses in the league. Chad Johnson saw the hit Marcus Pollard took from Mike Brown and said I'm not saying a word this week. He'll let his actions speak for him. 7 receptions 115 yards 1 Td. I like Orton, but Marvin Lewis coaching against a rookie Qb, not good. Ogunleye is hurt and he's a big part of the Chicago defense.

Cincy.....20 Chicago......10

Carolina (-3 1/2)--------Miami's running game is none existent Carolina will run the ball on just about anyone. Since Patrick Surtain is not in Miami anymore, nobody in the Miami secondary scares me, I think the run will set up the pass for Delhomme and he will hit Steve Smith for a couple of scores. Sam Madison can't hang with Steve Smith. Carolina will be out to silence all their critics in this one. Offense plays well and defense plays well. Carolina in a walk.

Carolina.......27 Miami.......10

I'm bummed I missed week 2, but I'm back.

 
Steelers - 3 (the steelers will frustrate brady as much as the panthers did, and pittsburgh is moving the ball at will right now)TB -3.5 (green bay is one of the five worst teams in the league)KC -2.5 (hard to see denver stopping KC and the KC D will force plummer into some mistakes)

 
First off, let me say I absolutely hate this week. But with the pressure on, I'll take:

Pats +3

Saints +4

Cheifs +2.5

Ugh... Three road dogs, what am I thinking?

MOP - I think DAL -6.5 is as good a play as any, I just had a theme going and stuck with it.

 
Billy Ball is going to start playing along.. I will go 3-0 this week
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A third person reference? Forget Mora..That is tool-time! :thumbup:
 
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Changing one of my picks. Had San Diego, but I don't like picking any of the night games -- always seems like something screwy happens.---5-1 so far. This week I'll go for some big favorites that haven't played to their full potential yet.Indy -13.5St. Louis -6Arizona-Seattle OVER 42 [corrected]

 
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Sorry I missed last week after going 3-0 in Week 1. Want to go ahead and get my picks in for Week 3. Really like this week's card, and I feel real good about these three.

St Louis-6.5 St Louis is a different team at home on their turf. Tennessee got scorched through the air against Big Ben in Week 1 and I expect more of the same from Bulger in this matchup. I don't feel that the Titans have the offensive personnel to keep up in this one. Rams 34 Titans 20[/b]

Seattle-6.5 Seattle should be able to pound the ball at the Cards. Another matchup where the opposing team won't have enough offense to stay within the number. And another home team laying less than a TD. I'll take it. Hawks 27 Cards 16

Indianapolis-13.5 The Colts have yet to hit their stride offensively as they have played two outstanding defenses in Baltimore and Jacksonville. Well, Cleveland is no where near these two. The Colts should have a field day against this defense and Cleveland's passing game will not enjoy the same type of game they had against Green Bay. Cleveland does not have the personnel to exploit Indy's one weakness, run defense. Plus I have a feeling they will be passing a little more once they are down 14-17 points. BLOWOUT!!! Colts 38 Browns 13
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One of the post of the weekOn that note...

My top3 plays this week are

Indy -13.5: Colts now have a strong defense and Peyton can make Crennell look stupid on his home turf. Indy in a blowout! Indy 41...Cleveland 10

St Louis -6.5: Tennessee is not that good. On turf they will get slaughtered.

Seattle -6.5: Also have the ground game to tear Arizona apart.

All home teams that have to do well to cover.

Other games I like a lot

Chicago +3...The Bengals 3-0?

KC +2.5...will the mile high air slow them down?

JAX +2.5...and the Jets have done what so far?

NYGiants +6...TrapDoor here somewhere

TB -3.5...Lambeau ain't looking so hot these days.

 
Tampa Bay -3.5

It's hard to pick against Green Bay in Green Bay, but their defense is just terrible. Their offense won't do much against this defense either unless Ahman picks up the pace in a hurry.
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As much as I'd expect the Bucs to win this game, I absolutely refuse to bet against Brett Favre at home after losing at home the week before to the Browns. Especially when they are getting 3.5.The Packers a home dog? Who would've ever thought.

 
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SD: Not really scientific, I just don't believe in Eli, and the Chargers will not let Tiki beat them.
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The Chargers' season is riding on this game and with the emotion of playing Eli there's no way the Chargers don't win. 6 points is a lot but if you factor in the crowd which is going to destroy Manning mentally I think it's reasonable.
 
I just got back from the Casino where I bet:Panthers -3Delholme comes alive.Rams -6.5It's a track meet for the Rams.Seahawks -6.5At home they are a different team.I also bet the under on the Panthers game (36.5)Probably 24-10 Panthers.

 
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0-2 so far this week with KC to play :lmao:I should change my name to The Cooler and be done with it. My bookie loves me this year.

 
I will get off the Saint's wagon...I will get off the Saint's wagon...I will get off the Saint's wagon...1-1 so far, also have KC tonight.

 
Keep in mind - I'm 1-5 so far. :X The bad part is, you can't think the opposite of my picks, because the law of averages says I should improve on my record very soon. Will it be this week??? Who knows?!?! :lmao:

Miami +3.5

KC +2.5

CIN -3
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2-0 so far this week. C'mon KC +2.5 I need to get back on track here.
 
SD: Not really scientific, I just don't believe in Eli, and the Chargers will not let Tiki beat them.

Cleve: Too many points for an NFL game. Plus, Cleveland's short passing game and ability to shorten the game will keep it reasonable.

Seattle: AZ blows.
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:goodposting: :own3d:
 
Read thru the picks above. I got a feeling the bookies made out this week. Lots of people on this post lost on underdogs KC & NOAnd gave points and lost withStL, Car, TB, & Pit

 
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