Offical Korean War Thread (2 Viewers)

[Ilov80s]

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE93214C20130403?irpc=932

So North Korea has informed the US govt that they have ratified strikes against the US, including nuclear attacks.

Seems odd that you formally announce that you are going to strike a country with a nuclear weapon. Kind of like Al Qaeda saying "Dear America, tomorrow morning we are going to hijack your planes and crash them into buildings".

Obviously he's fishing for something, not sure what though.

US issued the Potsdam Declaration to Japan. We didn't specifically mention nukes but did warn them that we were about to unleash absolute destruction.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE93214C20130403?irpc=932

So North Korea has informed the US govt that they have ratified strikes against the US, including nuclear attacks.

Seems odd that you formally announce that you are going to strike a country with a nuclear weapon. Kind of like Al Qaeda saying "Dear America, tomorrow morning we are going to hijack your planes and crash them into buildings".

Obviously he's fishing for something, not sure what though.

Al Qaeda more or less did this when they declared war on the USA in 1996 or so.

 

[Slapdash]

If North Korea, which has perhaps 5 to 10 rudimentary nukes, fired one or more of them, disbelief would promptly yield to mayhem.... No U.S. president would kill 10 million innocents in North Korea

I would expect any US president to respond in-kind to a nuclear attack on us or our allies.

I would hope cooler heads prevail imo.

I am about as anti-war as it comes but I don't see what else we would do in that situation. Please let me know what you think would happen.

We would continue to methodically take out their military capability. The nuclear threat is no deterrent if the generals in command are not worried about losing civilian life. Killing a bunch of North Koreans just for revenge does not solve the underlying issue - stopping the military aggression. In Japan, when we used nuclear weapons, the leadership wanted to save their civilians - I don't get the sense that the North Koreans share that same sensibility - only self-preservation for the leadership.

The Korean War will end with South Korea assuming control of the entire peninsula. That is the primary reason NK keeps things in their pants for the most part. The military leaders like being in control.

Thanks for you thoughts. I am not suggesting it would be an issue of revenge but of using the strongest means of attack possible. To me, that would include tactical nukes.

This whole thing is very scary since the only nuclear attack so far was met with surrender. Surely this case would play out differently than that.

 

[pats3in4]

StrategyPage's 3/20/13 article on N.Korea.

Haven't read Jim Dunnigan in years, but this thread reminded me of his site.

Edit: Fixed link

 

[Billy Bats]

If North Korea, which has perhaps 5 to 10 rudimentary nukes, fired one or more of them, disbelief would promptly yield to mayhem.... No U.S. president would kill 10 million innocents in North Korea

Fired one of them where, the middle of the Pacific Ocean?

Or anywhere near California or Hawaii or Alaska?

North Korea has zero ability to get nuke anywhere near the US.

We check container ships when they are offloaded, but what stops them from loading nukes onto ships, piloting them to LA/NYC/SD/Miami and coordinating detination in harbor?

Unless they partnered up with another country and have the ships leaving from a different country, I would hope that we know exactly what's leaving the NKs harbors at all times, especially lately.

 

[Billy Bats]

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE93214C20130403?irpc=932

So North Korea has informed the US govt that they have ratified strikes against the US, including nuclear attacks.

Is this to be taken as a declaration of war against us?

 

[Fennis]

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE93214C20130403?irpc=932

So North Korea has informed the US govt that they have ratified strikes against the US, including nuclear attacks.

Is this to be taken as a declaration of war against us?

We've been at a state of war with NK for 50 years. That statement doesn't change anything.

 

[cstu]

If North Korea, which has perhaps 5 to 10 rudimentary nukes, fired one or more of them, disbelief would promptly yield to mayhem.... No U.S. president would kill 10 million innocents in North Korea

Fired one of them where, the middle of the Pacific Ocean?

Or anywhere near California or Hawaii or Alaska?

North Korea has zero ability to get nuke anywhere near the US.

We check container ships when they are offloaded, but what stops them from loading nukes onto ships, piloting them to LA/NYC/SD/Miami and coordinating detination in harbor?

Unless they partnered up with another country and have the ships leaving from a different country, I would hope that we know exactly what's leaving the NKs harbors at all times, especially lately.

How difficult would it be to send it to China first, fake any paperwork necessary and then head it on to the U.S.?

 

[Gawain]

If North Korea, which has perhaps 5 to 10 rudimentary nukes, fired one or more of them, disbelief would promptly yield to mayhem.... No U.S. president would kill 10 million innocents in North Korea

Fired one of them where, the middle of the Pacific Ocean?

Or anywhere near California or Hawaii or Alaska?

North Korea has zero ability to get nuke anywhere near the US.

We check container ships when they are offloaded, but what stops them from loading nukes onto ships, piloting them to LA/NYC/SD/Miami and coordinating detination in harbor?

Unless they partnered up with another country and have the ships leaving from a different country, I would hope that we know exactly what's leaving the NKs harbors at all times, especially lately.

How difficult would it be to send it to China first, fake any paperwork necessary and then head it on to the U.S.?

Just take it to an free trade zone where nothing gets checked because nothing is staying in country. Could transfer containers w/ appropriate BoLs and pull sleight of hand just like the guy on the streetcorner finding the queen. NK may only have one container ship though, so it might be a moo point, because cows don't use nuclear weapons either.

A nuclear device detonated in a harbor, at sea level, will lose a fair amount of power when compared to an air burst, but still...if you want to freak out the US, detonating a nuke near NYC/LA harbors would surely do it.

I just thought the statement "North Korea has zero ability to get nuke anywhere near the US," was flawed. They don't have anyway to hit us with a missle, but who woulda thunk Al-Qaidi could have done what they did?

 

[GroveDiesel]

Man, don't you have to know you've royally screwed up when even Russia and China have turned against you?

I figured since this dude went to college in England, he'd have a clue about just how backward his country is and truly how little power they have. It's like he's buying his own garbage they sell to their peasants who have no way of knowing better.

 

[T Bell]

If North Korea, which has perhaps 5 to 10 rudimentary nukes, fired one or more of them, disbelief would promptly yield to mayhem.... No U.S. president would kill 10 million innocents in North Korea

That article pretty much sums up my view of this situation. There's a really good reason why the US has put up with North Korea's brinksmanship for the past few decades. North Korea can't win an actual war, but they can certainly make our victory a Phyrric one.

There's also the small issue of China, another nuclear power, not being thrilled about us nuking stuff on their doorstep, even ignoring that NK is a traditional ally.

Still, if NK did something monumentally stupid like trying to nuke Seoul (which is only a stone's throw across the border), I think you'd probably see some tactical, bunker busting type nukes going for their underground weapons and nuclear facilities so as to do damage but also be able to say we responded in kind.

This is The Mouse that Roared IMHO. The NK's nukes are best used as a threat. If they actually use them that regime will fall, and the regime knows it. The security and well-being of the regime is what's behind all of this for NK.

 

[T Bell]

Man, don't you have to know you've royally screwed up when even Russia and China have turned against you?I figured since this dude went to college in England, he'd have a clue about just how backward his country is and truly how little power they have. It's like he's buying his own garbage they sell to their peasants who have no way of knowing better.

Cults of personality mixed with groupthink is a hell of a drug.

 

[T Bell]

If North Korea, which has perhaps 5 to 10 rudimentary nukes, fired one or more of them, disbelief would promptly yield to mayhem.... No U.S. president would kill 10 million innocents in North Korea

Fired one of them where, the middle of the Pacific Ocean?

Or anywhere near California or Hawaii or Alaska?

North Korea has zero ability to get nuke anywhere near the US.

We check container ships when they are offloaded, but what stops them from loading nukes onto ships, piloting them to LA/NYC/SD/Miami and coordinating detination in harbor?

Unless they partnered up with another country and have the ships leaving from a different country, I would hope that we know exactly what's leaving the NKs harbors at all times, especially lately.

How difficult would it be to send it to China first, fake any paperwork necessary and then head it on to the U.S.?

Just take it to an free trade zone where nothing gets checked because nothing is staying in country. Could transfer containers w/ appropriate BoLs and pull sleight of hand just like the guy on the streetcorner finding the queen. NK may only have one container ship though, so it might be a moo point, because cows don't use nuclear weapons either.

A nuclear device detonated in a harbor, at sea level, will lose a fair amount of power when compared to an air burst, but still...if you want to freak out the US, detonating a nuke near NYC/LA harbors would surely do it.

I just thought the statement "North Korea has zero ability to get nuke anywhere near the US," was flawed. They don't have anyway to hit us with a missle, but who woulda thunk Al-Qaidi could have done what they did?

Nukes are a whole different ball game than hijacked airliners. Also, fissionable material doesn't exactly grow on trees. I'm not an authority on this but my impression is that there's a lot we know about regarding purchases and sales of potentially weaponized nuclear material on the black and grey markets that we closely track. This isn't as simple as loading a bunch of children's toys into a cargo container in Shanghai and sending it our way.

 

[Gawain]

If North Korea, which has perhaps 5 to 10 rudimentary nukes, fired one or more of them, disbelief would promptly yield to mayhem.... No U.S. president would kill 10 million innocents in North Korea

Fired one of them where, the middle of the Pacific Ocean?

Or anywhere near California or Hawaii or Alaska?

North Korea has zero ability to get nuke anywhere near the US.

We check container ships when they are offloaded, but what stops them from loading nukes onto ships, piloting them to LA/NYC/SD/Miami and coordinating detination in harbor?

Unless they partnered up with another country and have the ships leaving from a different country, I would hope that we know exactly what's leaving the NKs harbors at all times, especially lately.

How difficult would it be to send it to China first, fake any paperwork necessary and then head it on to the U.S.?

Just take it to an free trade zone where nothing gets checked because nothing is staying in country. Could transfer containers w/ appropriate BoLs and pull sleight of hand just like the guy on the streetcorner finding the queen. NK may only have one container ship though, so it might be a moo point, because cows don't use nuclear weapons either.

A nuclear device detonated in a harbor, at sea level, will lose a fair amount of power when compared to an air burst, but still...if you want to freak out the US, detonating a nuke near NYC/LA harbors would surely do it.

I just thought the statement "North Korea has zero ability to get nuke anywhere near the US," was flawed. They don't have anyway to hit us with a missle, but who woulda thunk Al-Qaidi could have done what they did?

Nukes are a whole different ball game than hijacked airliners. Also, fissionable material doesn't exactly grow on trees. I'm not an authority on this but my impression is that there's a lot we know about regarding purchases and sales of potentially weaponized nuclear material on the black and grey markets that we closely track. This isn't as simple as loading a bunch of children's toys into a cargo container in Shanghai and sending it our way.

I'm just going off the reports that NK has 5-10 rudementary nuclear weapons. Given that, the tracking of uranium doesn't matter much. If NK already has a weapon, they have already lept over the first big hurdle. Now, their major problem would be getting it the the US. NK clearly doesn't have a bomber or missile that would reach the US, so they would have to find some way to get it here invisibly. It's been a while since I did HazMat international shipping, but the main defenses are at areas of entry. Containers generally aren't inspected on ship, but after being unloaded.

You're right that a 53' container from Pyongyang is going to raise some eyebrows, so the smart play would be to get point of origin somewhere along the line. I am sure that for the right price some East African country would be happy to oblige. NK could also probably just forge BoL's from Angola or Mozambique. While I am sure that we eyeball any ship leaving NK and probably inspect anything that arrives from NK onboard, I'd be highly surprised if we keep eyeballs on them the entire way here.

I don't see much, if anything that would keep a container ship from grounding itself on the south shore of Manhattan, say near the seaport. It'd obviously be a one-way mission and the cost of the ship is a fairly large entry barrier, but a scenario such as the one I described seems to be the avenue with the greatest chance of success if NK really wanted to put a nuke on US soil. Hell, a luxury yacht would be big enough to hold bombs such as the ones we dropped on Japan. It wouldn't even need to be a full-sized container ship...though a trans-pacific crossing is much higher risk.

 

[T Bell]

I'm just going off the reports that NK has 5-10 rudementary nuclear weapons. Given that, the tracking of uranium doesn't matter much. If NK already has a weapon, they have already lept over the first big hurdle. Now, their major problem would be getting it the the US. NK clearly doesn't have a bomber or missile that would reach the US, so they would have to find some way to get it here invisibly. It's been a while since I did HazMat international shipping, but the main defenses are at areas of entry. Containers generally aren't inspected on ship, but after being unloaded.

You're right that a 53' container from Pyongyang is going to raise some eyebrows, so the smart play would be to get point of origin somewhere along the line. I am sure that for the right price some East African country would be happy to oblige. NK could also probably just forge BoL's from Angola or Mozambique. While I am sure that we eyeball any ship leaving NK and probably inspect anything that arrives from NK onboard, I'd be highly surprised if we keep eyeballs on them the entire way here.

I don't see much, if anything that would keep a container ship from grounding itself on the south shore of Manhattan, say near the seaport. It'd obviously be a one-way mission and the cost of the ship is a fairly large entry barrier, but a scenario such as the one I described seems to be the avenue with the greatest chance of success if NK really wanted to put a nuke on US soil. Hell, a luxury yacht would be big enough to hold bombs such as the ones we dropped on Japan. It wouldn't even need to be a full-sized container ship...though a trans-pacific crossing is much higher risk.

Not many ships are leaving NK. People who do business with NK are "for sale", and we're into buying info.

"Oops, another cargo ship was hijacked by those darn Somali pirates..."

I'm not saying it's impossible, just that the actual carrying out of this is extremely difficult.

 

[[icon]]

If North Korea, which has perhaps 5 to 10 rudimentary nukes, fired one or more of them, disbelief would promptly yield to mayhem.... No U.S. president would kill 10 million innocents in North Korea

Fired one of them where, the middle of the Pacific Ocean?

Or anywhere near California or Hawaii or Alaska?

North Korea has zero ability to get nuke anywhere near the US.

We check container ships when they are offloaded, but what stops them from loading nukes onto ships, piloting them to LA/NYC/SD/Miami and coordinating detination in harbor?

Unless they partnered up with another country and have the ships leaving from a different country, I would hope that we know exactly what's leaving the NKs harbors at all times, especially lately.

How difficult would it be to send it to China first, fake any paperwork necessary and then head it on to the U.S.?

Oh come on... China wants no part in a moderately successful (at best) nuke attack on the US.

 

[JuniorNB]

If North Korea, which has perhaps 5 to 10 rudimentary nukes, fired one or more of them, disbelief would promptly yield to mayhem.... No U.S. president would kill 10 million innocents in North Korea

Fired one of them where, the middle of the Pacific Ocean?

Or anywhere near California or Hawaii or Alaska?

North Korea has zero ability to get nuke anywhere near the US.

We check container ships when they are offloaded, but what stops them from loading nukes onto ships, piloting them to LA/NYC/SD/Miami and coordinating detination in harbor?

Unless they partnered up with another country and have the ships leaving from a different country, I would hope that we know exactly what's leaving the NKs harbors at all times, especially lately.

How difficult would it be to send it to China first, fake any paperwork necessary and then head it on to the U.S.?

This would mean lying on the commercial invoice, plus failing to include a dangerous goods certificate, subjecting them to stiff fines.

 

[Novice2]

North Korea has moved a missile with "considerable range" to its east coast.....could be for testing or drills...dismissed reports in Japanese media that the missile could be a KN-08, which is believed to be a long-range missile that if operable could hit the United States.....there are doubts about the missile's accuracy..Experts say North Korea has not demonstrated that it has missiles capable of long range or accuracy. Some suspect that long-range missiles unveiled by Pyongyang at a parade last year were actually mockups...I don't believe North Korea has the capacity to attack the United States with nuclear weapons mounted on missiles, and won't for many years.

 

[heckmanm]

You know, I have one simple request. And that is to have sharks with #######' laser beams attached to their heads!

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

So what kind of anti missile tech do we have in South Korea and Japan? Can we risk them launching this thing so we can shoot it down and then take out the crazy guy?

 

[NCCommish]

There is no doubt in my mind that the appropriate response to the North Koreans using a nuke on any of our allies or ourselves would be to nuke them until they glow. Don't need to worry about who is running the North because it will be hot for hundreds of years. I say this as someone who has been clear they think the nuking of Japan in WW2 was wrong. But this is different.

MAD works for one reason, the thought that if you nuke us or our allies we will make an overwhelming nuclear response to that act. We would either have to carry through with that or we are blackmail victims forever.

 

[NCCommish]

So what kind of anti missile tech do we have in South Korea and Japan? Can we risk them launching this thing so we can shoot it down and then take out the crazy guy?

We've deployed anti-missle frigates to the area just in case.

 

[Kirby]

How about some nuke torpedoes? They have any subs that can make it to the west coast?

 

[VA703]

send in seal team 6 lets end this clowns short career

 

[NCCommish]

How about some nuke torpedoes? They have any subs that can make it to the west coast?

They are considered a green-water navy. In other words they only operate relatively close to shore. While they have subs they are limited in range and are considered coastal submarines.

 

[Kal El]

I'm sure it's been mentioned, but North Korea's leadership is legitimately insane. What possible endgame are they working towards? They have almost no true allies in the region (China wants no part of their latest round of shenanigans), and if they were to actually attempt a nuclear strike, they're basically signing their nation's death warrant.

I would think that there is a way to eliminate the leadership there while trying to get aid to the people who have no real grasp on the outside world, thanks to the idiots in charge there.

 

[GroveDiesel]

There is no doubt in my mind that the appropriate response to the North Koreans using a nuke on any of our allies or ourselves would be to nuke them until they glow. Don't need to worry about who is running the North because it will be hot for hundreds of years. I say this as someone who has been clear they think the nuking of Japan in WW2 was wrong. But this is different. MAD works for one reason, the thought that if you nuke us or our allies we will make an overwhelming nuclear response to that act. We would either have to carry through with that or we are blackmail victims forever.

And of course one of the reasons MAD is a bad policy to follow across the board is that it requires two rational state actors, something we may be one short of in this situation. Thank goodness we have some sort of a missile defense system that at least has some shot at preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Let be a conspiracy theorist for a second. Is there any way or any reason that china and/or Russia is actually encouraging or supporting this behind the scenes and that they could supply military equipment, support, or enable transfer of a dirty bomb etc?

 

[NCCommish]

There is no doubt in my mind that the appropriate response to the North Koreans using a nuke on any of our allies or ourselves would be to nuke them until they glow. Don't need to worry about who is running the North because it will be hot for hundreds of years. I say this as someone who has been clear they think the nuking of Japan in WW2 was wrong. But this is different. MAD works for one reason, the thought that if you nuke us or our allies we will make an overwhelming nuclear response to that act. We would either have to carry through with that or we are blackmail victims forever.

And of course one of the reasons MAD is a bad policy to follow across the board is that it requires two rational state actors, something we may be one short of in this situation. Thank goodness we have some sort of a missile defense system that at least has some shot at preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths.

First off NK is not insane. They are playing a game they have been playing for a long time. New leader in SK? Time to ramp up the crazy. New sanctions? Ramp up the crazy. Add the two together you get extra crazy. But they haven't really done anything verifiable to back up the crazy talk. The worry is Jr isn't very experienced and he may get in over his head. If he goes to far then we need to do something. If he launches a nuke we light them up. Not just as retaliation but as a message to everyone else. Otherwise you have Pakistan and Iran to worry about.

 

[Treynwreck3]

So what kind of anti missile tech do we have in South Korea and Japan? Can we risk them launching this thing so we can shoot it down and then take out the crazy guy?

We've deployed anti-missle frigates to the area just in case.

It is my understanding that one of our biggest fears is that while we have the technology to knock most any missile down, the proximity of NK to SK and Japan leaves a very short window of response in the case of a launch. We may be able to take out almost all, but even one nuke reaching it's target is nothing short of disaster.

 

[NCCommish]

Let be a conspiracy theorist for a second. Is there any way or any reason that china and/or Russia is actually encouraging or supporting this behind the scenes and that they could supply military equipment, support, or enable transfer of a dirty bomb etc?

It would be very bad to have your fingerprints found on this. And really why? At the end of the day both those countries need the west more than the west really needs them. Being caught behind this would devastate trade.

 

[NCCommish]

So what kind of anti missile tech do we have in South Korea and Japan? Can we risk them launching this thing so we can shoot it down and then take out the crazy guy?

We've deployed anti-missle frigates to the area just in case.

It is my understanding that one of our biggest fears is that while we have the technology to knock most any missile down, the proximity of NK to SK and Japan leaves a very short window of response in the case of a launch. We may be able to take out almost all, but even one nuke reaching it's target is nothing short of disaster.

Yeah they are close but they don't have that many missiles. And they likely have less than ten nukes. It's not even confirmed they can put a nuke on a missile successfully much less deliver an accurate strike with it. Still there is always the chance and yeah it would be real bad for everyone.

 

[GroveDiesel]

There is no doubt in my mind that the appropriate response to the North Koreans using a nuke on any of our allies or ourselves would be to nuke them until they glow. Don't need to worry about who is running the North because it will be hot for hundreds of years. I say this as someone who has been clear they think the nuking of Japan in WW2 was wrong. But this is different. MAD works for one reason, the thought that if you nuke us or our allies we will make an overwhelming nuclear response to that act. We would either have to carry through with that or we are blackmail victims forever.

And of course one of the reasons MAD is a bad policy to follow across the board is that it requires two rational state actors, something we may be one short of in this situation. Thank goodness we have some sort of a missile defense system that at least has some shot at preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths.

First off NK is not insane. They are playing a game they have been playing for a long time. New leader in SK? Time to ramp up the crazy. New sanctions? Ramp up the crazy. Add the two together you get extra crazy. But they haven't really done anything verifiable to back up the crazy talk. The worry is Jr isn't very experienced and he may get in over his head. If he goes to far then we need to do something. If he launches a nuke we light them up. Not just as retaliation but as a message to everyone else. Otherwise you have Pakistan and Iran to worry about.

The fact that we're even talking about NK launching a nuke as a real possibility is proof that we may not be dealing with a rational actor. If he launches any type of attack, that's definitive proof that he isn't a rational actor.

 

[NCCommish]

There is no doubt in my mind that the appropriate response to the North Koreans using a nuke on any of our allies or ourselves would be to nuke them until they glow. Don't need to worry about who is running the North because it will be hot for hundreds of years. I say this as someone who has been clear they think the nuking of Japan in WW2 was wrong. But this is different. MAD works for one reason, the thought that if you nuke us or our allies we will make an overwhelming nuclear response to that act. We would either have to carry through with that or we are blackmail victims forever.

And of course one of the reasons MAD is a bad policy to follow across the board is that it requires two rational state actors, something we may be one short of in this situation. Thank goodness we have some sort of a missile defense system that at least has some shot at preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths.

First off NK is not insane. They are playing a game they have been playing for a long time. New leader in SK? Time to ramp up the crazy. New sanctions? Ramp up the crazy. Add the two together you get extra crazy. But they haven't really done anything verifiable to back up the crazy talk. The worry is Jr isn't very experienced and he may get in over his head. If he goes to far then we need to do something. If he launches a nuke we light them up. Not just as retaliation but as a message to everyone else. Otherwise you have Pakistan and Iran to worry about.

The fact that we're even talking about NK launching a nuke as a real possibility is proof that we may not be dealing with a rational actor. If he launches any type of attack, that's definitive proof that he isn't a rational actor.

We are talking about it because no one knows this guy. But you can't rule a smoking ash ruin. In the long run that's why MAD has worked for so long. Even allegedly crazy people realize they don't get much out of a nuclear exchange with a country that has more nukes on subs patrolling their waters than they have total.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

There is no doubt in my mind that the appropriate response to the North Koreans using a nuke on any of our allies or ourselves would be to nuke them until they glow. Don't need to worry about who is running the North because it will be hot for hundreds of years. I say this as someone who has been clear they think the nuking of Japan in WW2 was wrong. But this is different. MAD works for one reason, the thought that if you nuke us or our allies we will make an overwhelming nuclear response to that act. We would either have to carry through with that or we are blackmail victims forever.

And of course one of the reasons MAD is a bad policy to follow across the board is that it requires two rational state actors, something we may be one short of in this situation. Thank goodness we have some sort of a missile defense system that at least has some shot at preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths.

First off NK is not insane. They are playing a game they have been playing for a long time. New leader in SK? Time to ramp up the crazy. New sanctions? Ramp up the crazy. Add the two together you get extra crazy. But they haven't really done anything verifiable to back up the crazy talk. The worry is Jr isn't very experienced and he may get in over his head. If he goes to far then we need to do something. If he launches a nuke we light them up. Not just as retaliation but as a message to everyone else. Otherwise you have Pakistan and Iran to worry about.

The fact that we're even talking about NK launching a nuke as a real possibility is proof that we may not be dealing with a rational actor. If he launches any type of attack, that's definitive proof that he isn't a rational actor.

NK is not going to launch a nuke.

Like NCC said, the new guy is running a play that NK has run about a dozen times in the past. In the NK playbook, "act crazy and provoke an international crisis with wild, arm-flailing belligerence" is their equivalent of running off tackle. They do this because they know that the rest of the world will give them stuff like food and economic assistance in exchange for going back in their basement for a couple of years. The main worry is that the new guy is extremely young and inexperienced so he may not know exactly what he's doing and may push things too far. Also, there is some speculation that his hold on power may not be that secure, and if that's the case he may think that it's in his domestic interest to provoke an actual war. All of this is completely consistent with NK being a rational actor.

Yes, in theory, giving NK aid when they act out incentivises bad behavior, but it's just not worth it to teach them a lesson.

 

[Black Box]

So what kind of anti missile tech do we have in South Korea and Japan? Can we risk them launching this thing so we can shoot it down and then take out the crazy guy?

We've deployed anti-missle frigates to the area just in case.

I also read that we're moving some land-based missile defenses to Guam, but they won't be set up for a couple of weeks.

 

[NCCommish]

There is no doubt in my mind that the appropriate response to the North Koreans using a nuke on any of our allies or ourselves would be to nuke them until they glow. Don't need to worry about who is running the North because it will be hot for hundreds of years. I say this as someone who has been clear they think the nuking of Japan in WW2 was wrong. But this is different. MAD works for one reason, the thought that if you nuke us or our allies we will make an overwhelming nuclear response to that act. We would either have to carry through with that or we are blackmail victims forever.

And of course one of the reasons MAD is a bad policy to follow across the board is that it requires two rational state actors, something we may be one short of in this situation. Thank goodness we have some sort of a missile defense system that at least has some shot at preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths.

First off NK is not insane. They are playing a game they have been playing for a long time. New leader in SK? Time to ramp up the crazy. New sanctions? Ramp up the crazy. Add the two together you get extra crazy. But they haven't really done anything verifiable to back up the crazy talk. The worry is Jr isn't very experienced and he may get in over his head. If he goes to far then we need to do something. If he launches a nuke we light them up. Not just as retaliation but as a message to everyone else. Otherwise you have Pakistan and Iran to worry about.

The fact that we're even talking about NK launching a nuke as a real possibility is proof that we may not be dealing with a rational actor. If he launches any type of attack, that's definitive proof that he isn't a rational actor.

NK is not going to launch a nuke.

Like NCC said, the new guy is running a play that NK has run about a dozen times in the past. In the NK playbook, "act crazy and provoke an international crisis with wild, arm-flailing belligerence" is their equivalent of running off tackle. They do this because they know that the rest of the world will give them stuff like food and economic assistance in exchange for going back in their basement for a couple of years. The main worry is that the new guy is extremely young and inexperienced so he may not know exactly what he's doing and may push things too far. Also, there is some speculation that his hold on power may not be that secure, and if that's the case he may think that it's in his domestic interest to provoke an actual war. All of this is completely consistent with NK being a rational actor.

Yes, in theory, giving NK aid when they act out incentivises bad behavior, but it's just not worth it to teach them a lesson.

Yep

 

[NCCommish]

So what kind of anti missile tech do we have in South Korea and Japan? Can we risk them launching this thing so we can shoot it down and then take out the crazy guy?

We've deployed anti-missle frigates to the area just in case.

I also read that we're moving some land-based missile defenses to Guam, but they won't be set up for a couple of weeks.

I'd be shocked if they could hit Guam on purpose.

 

[Black Box]

So what kind of anti missile tech do we have in South Korea and Japan? Can we risk them launching this thing so we can shoot it down and then take out the crazy guy?

We've deployed anti-missle frigates to the area just in case.

I also read that we're moving some land-based missile defenses to Guam, but they won't be set up for a couple of weeks.

I'd be shocked if they could hit Guam on purpose.

I think the idea is to use the land-based missile defense to intercept any potential missiles headed for other targets, not Guam itself.

 

[NCCommish]

So what kind of anti missile tech do we have in South Korea and Japan? Can we risk them launching this thing so we can shoot it down and then take out the crazy guy?

We've deployed anti-missle frigates to the area just in case.

I also read that we're moving some land-based missile defenses to Guam, but they won't be set up for a couple of weeks.

I'd be shocked if they could hit Guam on purpose.

I think the idea is to use the land-based missile defense to intercept any potential missiles headed for other targets, not Guam itself.

I'd be shocked if they could hit much of anything on purpose. If they fling it they are kind of hoping it lands near somewhere. People seem to think you just pop on a warhead and away you go. It takes years to develop your own systems

 

[GroveDiesel]

There is no doubt in my mind that the appropriate response to the North Koreans using a nuke on any of our allies or ourselves would be to nuke them until they glow. Don't need to worry about who is running the North because it will be hot for hundreds of years. I say this as someone who has been clear they think the nuking of Japan in WW2 was wrong. But this is different. MAD works for one reason, the thought that if you nuke us or our allies we will make an overwhelming nuclear response to that act. We would either have to carry through with that or we are blackmail victims forever.

And of course one of the reasons MAD is a bad policy to follow across the board is that it requires two rational state actors, something we may be one short of in this situation. Thank goodness we have some sort of a missile defense system that at least has some shot at preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths.

First off NK is not insane. They are playing a game they have been playing for a long time. New leader in SK? Time to ramp up the crazy. New sanctions? Ramp up the crazy. Add the two together you get extra crazy. But they haven't really done anything verifiable to back up the crazy talk. The worry is Jr isn't very experienced and he may get in over his head. If he goes to far then we need to do something. If he launches a nuke we light them up. Not just as retaliation but as a message to everyone else. Otherwise you have Pakistan and Iran to worry about.

The fact that we're even talking about NK launching a nuke as a real possibility is proof that we may not be dealing with a rational actor. If he launches any type of attack, that's definitive proof that he isn't a rational actor.

NK is not going to launch a nuke. Like NCC said, the new guy is running a play that NK has run about a dozen times in the past. In the NK playbook, "act crazy and provoke an international crisis with wild, arm-flailing belligerence" is their equivalent of running off tackle. They do this because they know that the rest of the world will give them stuff like food and economic assistance in exchange for going back in their basement for a couple of years. The main worry is that the new guy is extremely young and inexperienced so he may not know exactly what he's doing and may push things too far. Also, there is some speculation that his hold on power may not be that secure, and if that's the case he may think that it's in his domestic interest to provoke an actual war. All of this is completely consistent with NK being a rational actor. Yes, in theory, giving NK aid when they act out incentivises bad behavior, but it's just not worth it to teach them a lesson.

We know what his father dis in the past. We also know that a whole lot of North Koreans truly are brainwashed and think that their country truly is the greatest and strongest. How do we know for certain that Jr. isn't one of them? We DON'T know that Jr is playing the same game. Clearly our government doesn't know that or we wouldn't be massing all sorts of troops and military hardware over there. Assuming that everyone is a rational actor that thinks the same as you is how Europe hands over countries to Hitler and is then shocked when he just keeps going. Like I said, I for one am thankful we have an anti-missile system to try to protect ourselves and our allies. MAD is lunacy.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

We're not handing over any countries to Hitler here. If North Korea attacks South Korea, it's on. And it goes without saying that it's also on in the event of any kind of attack on Japan or the US. KJU almost certainly knows this already, but just in case he doesn't, the current show of force we're putting on display should get him up to speed.

I completely understand that when some idiot starts acting like a clown, it's tempting to punch him in the face just on the principle of the thing. But the cost of going to war with NK is pretty high and significantly more complicated than either Iraq or Afghanistan. Unfortunately our best option is to do what we've been doing, which is basically nothing. If we end up tossing him some dollars a few weeks from now, that's a lot better than any military alternative.

 

[Treynwreck3]

So what kind of anti missile tech do we have in South Korea and Japan? Can we risk them launching this thing so we can shoot it down and then take out the crazy guy?

We've deployed anti-missle frigates to the area just in case.

I also read that we're moving some land-based missile defenses to Guam, but they won't be set up for a couple of weeks.

I'd be shocked if they could hit Guam on purpose.

I think the idea is to use the land-based missile defense to intercept any potential missiles headed for other targets, not Guam itself.

I'd be shocked if they could hit much of anything on purpose. If they fling it they are kind of hoping it lands near somewhere. People seem to think you just pop on a warhead and away you go. It takes years to develop your own systems

What are the chances that they have purchased weapons delivery systems that ARE capable of hitting their intended target?

 

[NCCommish]

We're not handing over any countries to Hitler here. If North Korea attacks South Korea, it's on. And it goes without saying that it's also on in the event of any kind of attack on Japan or the US. KJU almost certainly knows this already, but just in case he doesn't, the current show of force we're putting on display should get him up to speed.

I completely understand that when some idiot starts acting like a clown, it's tempting to punch him in the face just on the principle of the thing. But the cost of going to war with NK is pretty high and significantly more complicated than either Iraq or Afghanistan. Unfortunately our best option is to do what we've been doing, which is basically nothing. If we end up tossing him some dollars a few weeks from now, that's a lot better than any military alternative.

BTW I agree that if we can buy the guy off for some wheat or PS3s that is the better than killing a buttload of people.

 

[NCCommish]

So what kind of anti missile tech do we have in South Korea and Japan? Can we risk them launching this thing so we can shoot it down and then take out the crazy guy?

We've deployed anti-missle frigates to the area just in case.

I also read that we're moving some land-based missile defenses to Guam, but they won't be set up for a couple of weeks.

I'd be shocked if they could hit Guam on purpose.

I think the idea is to use the land-based missile defense to intercept any potential missiles headed for other targets, not Guam itself.

I'd be shocked if they could hit much of anything on purpose. If they fling it they are kind of hoping it lands near somewhere. People seem to think you just pop on a warhead and away you go. It takes years to develop your own systems

What are the chances that they have purchased weapons delivery systems that ARE capable of hitting their intended target?

Pretty low. The people who peddled them the tech they do have aren't really up to that level. And I would think it's not in China or Russia's best interest to help them out on this.

 

[Fennis]

There is no doubt in my mind that the appropriate response to the North Koreans using a nuke on any of our allies or ourselves would be to nuke them until they glow. Don't need to worry about who is running the North because it will be hot for hundreds of years. I say this as someone who has been clear they think the nuking of Japan in WW2 was wrong. But this is different. MAD works for one reason, the thought that if you nuke us or our allies we will make an overwhelming nuclear response to that act. We would either have to carry through with that or we are blackmail victims forever.

And of course one of the reasons MAD is a bad policy to follow across the board is that it requires two rational state actors, something we may be one short of in this situation. Thank goodness we have some sort of a missile defense system that at least has some shot at preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths.

First off NK is not insane. They are playing a game they have been playing for a long time. New leader in SK? Time to ramp up the crazy. New sanctions? Ramp up the crazy. Add the two together you get extra crazy. But they haven't really done anything verifiable to back up the crazy talk. The worry is Jr isn't very experienced and he may get in over his head. If he goes to far then we need to do something. If he launches a nuke we light them up. Not just as retaliation but as a message to everyone else. Otherwise you have Pakistan and Iran to worry about.

The fact that we're even talking about NK launching a nuke as a real possibility is proof that we may not be dealing with a rational actor. If he launches any type of attack, that's definitive proof that he isn't a rational actor.

NK is not going to launch a nuke. Like NCC said, the new guy is running a play that NK has run about a dozen times in the past. In the NK playbook, "act crazy and provoke an international crisis with wild, arm-flailing belligerence" is their equivalent of running off tackle. They do this because they know that the rest of the world will give them stuff like food and economic assistance in exchange for going back in their basement for a couple of years. The main worry is that the new guy is extremely young and inexperienced so he may not know exactly what he's doing and may push things too far. Also, there is some speculation that his hold on power may not be that secure, and if that's the case he may think that it's in his domestic interest to provoke an actual war. All of this is completely consistent with NK being a rational actor. Yes, in theory, giving NK aid when they act out incentivises bad behavior, but it's just not worth it to teach them a lesson.

We know what his father dis in the past. We also know that a whole lot of North Koreans truly are brainwashed and think that their country truly is the greatest and strongest. How do we know for certain that Jr. isn't one of them? We DON'T know that Jr is playing the same game. Clearly our government doesn't know that or we wouldn't be massing all sorts of troops and military hardware over there. Assuming that everyone is a rational actor that thinks the same as you is how Europe hands over countries to Hitler and is then shocked when he just keeps going.Like I said, I for one am thankful we have an anti-missile system to try to protect ourselves and our allies. MAD is lunacy.

Who cares if NK thinks their country is the greatest?

 

[Fennis]

So what kind of anti missile tech do we have in South Korea and Japan? Can we risk them launching this thing so we can shoot it down and then take out the crazy guy?

We've deployed anti-missle frigates to the area just in case.

I also read that we're moving some land-based missile defenses to Guam, but they won't be set up for a couple of weeks.

I'd be shocked if they could hit Guam on purpose.

I think the idea is to use the land-based missile defense to intercept any potential missiles headed for other targets, not Guam itself.

I'd be shocked if they could hit much of anything on purpose. If they fling it they are kind of hoping it lands near somewhere. People seem to think you just pop on a warhead and away you go. It takes years to develop your own systems

What are the chances that they have purchased weapons delivery systems that ARE capable of hitting their intended target?

Pretty low. The people who peddled them the tech they do have aren't really up to that level. And I would think it's not in China or Russia's best interest to help them out on this.

They can hit Seoul without much problem.

 

[NCCommish]

They don't need nukes to destroy Seoul. They have artillery for that.

 

[Fennis]

Nice to hear Russia condemn North Korea so strongly.

http://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-actions-radically-limit-chance-nuclear-talks-115901883.html

 

[Kal El]

I get the feeling that if things do in fact go haywire, the North Korean people won't welcome us with open arms, thanks to the massive propaganda/brainwashing machine they've had for the past 60 years. If things to get to the point where we commit ground troops (And I sincerely hope they don't), what do we do to quell that idea of us that they have in their minds?