***Official 2011 IDP NFL Draft Thread*** (1 Viewer)

[blend]

1.05 -- CB PATRICK PETERSON -- Arizona Cardinals

Stud corner, very strong in run support, great ball skills. Not worried about the potential shift to safety down the line. We'll see where the safeties go, but Peterson should be a top three IDP option among this year's DB group.

i think Peterson immediately starts and Toler will compete with Adams for the nickel. I now Peterson is good against the run and I imagine he'll be able to at least duplicate Tolers tackle numbers from last year. Toler was a beast for me as a WW pickup.

 

[Raymell McKigney]

Feel like I'm talking to myself tonight. Stupid lockout/CBA.

Trust me, with every pick I can't wait to see your analysis. Hell, I even copy them into a word doc so I can refer to them easily later. You're very appreciated.

What he said!! In between watching the the draft online, listening to Matt and Sig on the audible, following that chat room & following a shark pool draft thread, I spread myself as thin as possible. Couldn't wait to get back here and read your thoughts. Great work as always Dr Jene!!

 

[papalazarou]

1.14 -- DE ROBERT QUINN -- St. Louis Rams

Aldon Smith didn't land with a 4-3 team, but Quinn does. The brain tumor didn't cause a huge slip in the draft and probably won't keep him from slotting alongside Bowers as the prospective 1 and 1a DE rookie prospects. Should get plenty of time opposite Long right away.

16 team rookie draft coming up Jene, where does Quinn go?

 

[Orgazmo]

1.27 -- CB JIMMY SMITH -- Baltimore Ravens

If he breaks out, he'll be a prime sell high under the rookie corner rule.

What is this rookie corner rule?

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.27 -- CB JIMMY SMITH -- Baltimore Ravens

If he breaks out, he'll be a prime sell high under the rookie corner rule.

What is this rookie corner rule?

Rookie corners in the starting lineup (or any untested cover player) will be targeted by opposing offenses. That increased opportunity leads to increased statistical production. The key is determining which breakout young corners are legitimate (have the run support and cover skills to continue their strong numbers) or likely to see their numbers drop as offenses stop targeting them as often.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.14 -- DE ROBERT QUINN -- St. Louis Rams

Aldon Smith didn't land with a 4-3 team, but Quinn does. The brain tumor didn't cause a huge slip in the draft and probably won't keep him from slotting alongside Bowers as the prospective 1 and 1a DE rookie prospects. Should get plenty of time opposite Long right away.

16 team rookie draft coming up Jene, where does Quinn go?

My first thought is that Quinn, Clayborn and Jordan went to very good situations. And it might be tempting to slot them into a 2nd round grade (top 25-30) in rookie drafts. But each of them have enough question marks keeping them from clear 45-10 upside. I think Quinn has the highest upside, but he'll need to become more consistent against the run.For now, I'd have him as my top rookie DE, with Clayborn a close second. Ultimately, his draft slot depends on where the upper tiers of running back, wide receiver and linebacker prospects are drafted today and tomorrow afternoon. I'll have a combined draft board (offense and IDP) posted very early next week.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.02 -- LB VON MILLER -- Denver Broncos

I was in the minority in a Twitter discussion this afternoon and there's clearly always room for more pass rushers. But I'm not certain Miller is an immediate every-down fit as a 4-3 SLB. Maybe a 4-3 RDE. Could grow into the next Robert Mathis or Keith Bulluck, but it's questionable.

Early word on Miller is that he'll play SLB on early downs and defensive end in subpackages. Robert Ayers would be the odd man out in the nickel, but he could move inside as a rushing defensive tackle.

With the Broncos, Von Miller will be a two-position player.

During his visit to the Broncos' headquarters in Dove Valley this month, the members of the coaching staff let him know their plans if they drafted him, as they did Thursday with the No. 2 overall selection.

"I'm going to be a 'Sam' linebacker in the 4-3," Miller said. "And then on third down, I'm going to move down and rush."

The Sam, or strongside linebacker, plays over the tight end. It's a position that requires strength, athleticism and speed. Pass rushing, though, is the skill that made Miller the first defensive player taken in the draft. Robert Ayers, who has just 1 1/2 sacks in his career, will be a two-down defensive end. On passing downs, Ayers will likely give up his defensive end position to Miller.

That makes Miller an every-down linebacker, but one in the mold of Aaron Curry. Curry hasn't been great, but his scouting reports were more favorable for a switch to this kind of role than Miller's read to me. Those in big play scoring systems might consider him, but I'd let someone else assume the risk in balanced and tackle-heavy leagues.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Twelve defensive ends in the first round and a relative drop off of talent will leave the next two rounds shy on IDP prospects. If Jabaal Sheard and Da'Quan Bowers land in good situations, however, the tier of prospects with DL2 or better upside will run pretty deep.

Still interested in the destination of Marvin Austin and whether the Colts or Bears are in the market for a penetrating DT.

Most eyes are probably on Martez Wilson among the linebackers tonight, but a vote of confidence and a thin depth chart might push guys like Greg Jones, Mason Foster, Bruce Carter, Quan Sturdivant, Colin McCarthy, KJ Wright, Kelvin Sheppard, Ross Homan, Nate Irving, Casey Matthews or a third round surprise into the conversation on upper tier fantasy targets.

Still no consensus stud safety target, but expect at least two or three names to slot today. The fourth and fifth rounds might end up yielding a couple of prospects, too.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.03 -- DT MARCELL DAREUS -- Buffalo Bills

Dareus probably slots as a 3-4 DE here, but the Bills have been multiple enough that he'll see time as a DT and a 3-technique on passing downs probably. Can only help Kyle Williams and Paul Posluszny to have an aggressive and active defensive lineman added to the front seven.

Confirmed. Dareus to play end in the base defense, which should still be mostly 3-4, and likely to kick inside in some subpackages.

He figures to step in immediately as an end in the Bills' 3-4 defense. In passing situations, he most often would shift to a defensive tackle spot in a four-man line.

"The great thing about Marcell," said Bills coach Chan Gailey, "is he played on the tight end, he played on the tackle, he played on the guard, he played on the center. He gives you a lot of versatility. We'll play him at defensive end initially in our scheme but I can see him lining up in a lot of different spots for us as time goes on."

 

[Packerz]

1.13 -- DT NICK FAIRLEY -- Detroit Lions

Nice spot for Fairley to fall. If you think Fairley is ready to be a consistent stud, whomever ends up at MLB in Detroit will have plenty of room to flow to the ball. Fairley's upside is limited a bit by the talent around him, but he's got DT2 potential.

Great stuff Jene,

As a Cliff Avril owner, I was a excited about this pick at first. More I think about it though, could this probably hurt his playing time more than anything? From what I've heard is Fairley can play both inside and outside. Do you see a front line of KVB, Corey Williams, Suh, Fairley, on enough snaps to hurt his potential?

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.13 -- DT NICK FAIRLEY -- Detroit Lions

Nice spot for Fairley to fall. If you think Fairley is ready to be a consistent stud, whomever ends up at MLB in Detroit will have plenty of room to flow to the ball. Fairley's upside is limited a bit by the talent around him, but he's got DT2 potential.

Great stuff Jene,

As a Cliff Avril owner, I was a excited about this pick at first. More I think about it though, could this probably hurt his playing time more than anything? From what I've heard is Fairley can play both inside and outside. Do you see a front line of KVB, Corey Williams, Suh, Fairley, on enough snaps to hurt his potential?

I think Suh is a bigger threat to flex outside and take advantage of OT mismatches than Fairley. That may certainly be more likely that Suh does so with Fairley there. But it happened some last year, and isn't likely to be a huge part of the game plan in most weeks. I think Avril's upside is tied to VDB's health, Jackson's level of play and his own durability and stamina.Also worth wondering if Schwartz harkens back to some of his 46 experience and puts Suh, Fairley and Williams over the center of the offensive line. Good luck running up the middle then.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Interested in some snap judgments on the most attractive DL prospect right now.

Who do you like? One of the 4-3 ends (Quinn, Clayborn), a hybrid talent (Jordan, Watt), one of the 3-4 guys or a yet-to-be-drafted guy like Bowers?

 

[blend]

Interested in some snap judgments on the most attractive DL prospect right now.Who do you like? One of the 4-3 ends (Quinn, Clayborn), a hybrid talent (Jordan, Watt), one of the 3-4 guys or a yet-to-be-drafted guy like Bowers?

I think Quinn was drafted in a great situation. I would have really liked for Quinn and Watt to have flip-flopped, but Watt going to Houston doesn't have me that excited.I'm surprised Bowers is still falling - wonder how long it's going to last.

 

[BearsFan]

Interested in some snap judgments on the most attractive DL prospect right now.Who do you like? One of the 4-3 ends (Quinn, Clayborn), a hybrid talent (Jordan, Watt), one of the 3-4 guys or a yet-to-be-drafted guy like Bowers?

Clayborn pops out to me as someone who'll be on the field a lot as an RDE who'll also be solid against the run.Could be a starter immediately.

 

[Cipherchris]

I love those short and sweet analysis Jene

There seem to be a lot of prospect that got drafted by teams who doesn't seem like the perfect fit for them.

 

[Dave Larkin]

Interested in some snap judgments on the most attractive DL prospect right now.Who do you like? One of the 4-3 ends (Quinn, Clayborn), a hybrid talent (Jordan, Watt), one of the 3-4 guys or a yet-to-be-drafted guy like Bowers?

I'm always more excited about where the IDP guys end up than the offensive players. I'm looking forward to Quinn in STL with Spags coaching him up. I've always been a fan of Cam Jordan and in Gregg Williams' scheme he will have opportunities to make plays and be valuable in big play heavy leagues.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Will be hanging out in the pinned Shark Pool thread for much of tonight with Sig, Waldman, Rudnicki, Dodds and others. Still planning on updating here, but will keep the takes limited to IDP value for the most part. Join us over there for a little more back-and-forth tonight.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.33 -- CB RAS-I DOWLING -- New England Patriots

Injuries held Dowling back a bit last year, but he's got size, can play zone coverage and will play the run. Might be a nice IDP value when he's ready to play full time. That might come soon, and the rookie corner rule applies opposite McCourty.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.34 -- DB AARON WILLIAMS -- Buffalo Bills

Could play corner or safety, but he's likely to slot to corner I think in Buffalo. Must be seen as more than a nickel back for the Bills to take him over a QB, but there's room with the free agents in the Buffalo secondary.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.37 -- DE JABAAL SHEARD -- Cleveland Browns

Really like this pick for Cleveland. Solid all-around end. May take some time to grow into an every-down role as many rookie 4-3 ends do, but there's as much opportunity with the current depth chart as anywhere in the league. Could have DL1 upside in the long term.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.39 -- DL AKEEM AYERS -- Tennessee Titans

Wow, another tweener going to a 4-3 team. Titans have a couple of free agents along the line and like to rotate fresh and active bodies. Rotational player, but some situational upside down the line. Also likely means the Titans don't see William Hayes as a full time player and/or want to bring Derrick Morgan along slowly.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.40 -- LB BRUCE CARTER -- Dallas Cowboys

Love Bruce Carter. Don't necessarily love the slot as I was hoping he might find his way to a 4-3 OLB role, but there's upside opposite Demarcus Ware in the long term. Can certainly never have enough pass rushers and Carter's durability is a question, but it's still an interesting development for Anthony Spencer and the other young rushers on the depth chart.

ETA: Didn't consider Carter as a 3-4 ILB. It'll be interesting to see where he eventually slots.

 

[The Man With No Name]

2.39 -- DL AKEEM AYERS -- Tennessee Titans

Wow, another tweener going to a 4-3 team. Titans have a couple of free agents along the line and like to rotate fresh and active bodies. Rotational player, but some situational upside down the line. Also likely means the Titans don't see William Hayes as a full time player and/or want to bring Derrick Morgan along slowly.

?? He is a linebacker, isn't he?? That's what was said and shown on my tv. I got him listed at just 235 lbs.

(his wikipedia page says he is a lb too)

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.39 -- DL AKEEM AYERS -- Tennessee Titans

Wow, another tweener going to a 4-3 team. Titans have a couple of free agents along the line and like to rotate fresh and active bodies. Rotational player, but some situational upside down the line. Also likely means the Titans don't see William Hayes as a full time player and/or want to bring Derrick Morgan along slowly.

?? He is a linebacker, isn't he?? That's what was said and shown on my tv. I got him listed at just 235 lbs.

Much more likely to play DE I think in a 4-3 than OLB. I think the Titans are reasonably flush with OLB options right now with McRath, Witherspoon and potentially Curran pending Tulloch's fate.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.40 -- LB BRUCE CARTER -- Dallas Cowboys

Love Bruce Carter. Don't necessarily love the slot as I was hoping he might find his way to a 4-3 OLB role, but there's upside opposite Demarcus Ware in the long term. Can certainly never have enough pass rushers and Carter's durability is a question, but it's still an interesting development for Anthony Spencer and the other young rushers on the depth chart.

ETA: Didn't consider Carter as a 3-4 ILB. It'll be interesting to see where he eventually slots.

Clarence Hill says Carter likely to slot inside here. Lee/Carter would make for an interesting every down duo when Brooking and James move on.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Redskins grab Jarvis Jenkins, who'll play either DE or DT in the Washington 3-4. Not much IDP upside here.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Texans get another solid front seven piece for their transition to a 3-4 with OLB Brooks Reed. IDP upside questionable as a 3-4 SOLB, but it helps cement Cushing as a long term ILB.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Broncos add S Rahim Moore, but pass on a DT prospect with the next pick.

Moore is arguably the strongest all-around safety in the draft, but more of a cover guy than a consistent run supporter. Value will depend on how often he's used in the box and how well the backers play in front of him. First thought is that Darcel McBath still holds value with Moore a FS/slot corner, but we'll see.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Nice call on Ayers, TMWNN (I'm just calling you "The Man" now). Jerry Gray says Ayers will play a similar role to what Von Miller is expected to play. SLB with plenty of time playing on the line in a three point stance.

Also, John Elway has tweeted that Moore will play a "centerfielder" role. John Fox generally uses the safeties interchangeably, but that limits Moore's tackle upside for sure.

 

[Jene Bramel]

The news on Ayers may mean that Stephen Tulloch is on his way out in Tennessee. That assumes that Curran is ready to play inside and McRath is seen as an every-down OLB, too. Big assumption, but worth considering.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Marcus Gilchrist to the Chargers. Could play safety if Eric Weddle isn't signed or be a strong nickel performer until a slot opens up outside.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Da'Quan Bowers finally goes -- and it's TB after all. Great spot and acceptable risk when you've already grabbed your top DL target in Clayborn. Not an elite edge rusher, but likely pushes Clayborn to LDE (where he fits fine). IDP value dependent on his durability and the number of snaps the Bucs trust him with in time.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Giants grab Marvin Austin. Reasonable spot for a penetrating defensive tackle. Will be tough to double team with that DE group. May never see more than 50-60% of the snaps, but could still be a DT2.

 

[msommer]

2.39 -- DL AKEEM AYERS -- Tennessee Titans

Wow, another tweener going to a 4-3 team. Titans have a couple of free agents along the line and like to rotate fresh and active bodies. Rotational player, but some situational upside down the line. Also likely means the Titans don't see William Hayes as a full time player and/or want to bring Derrick Morgan along slowly.

odds on him being olb?

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.39 -- DL AKEEM AYERS -- Tennessee Titans

Wow, another tweener going to a 4-3 team. Titans have a couple of free agents along the line and like to rotate fresh and active bodies. Rotational player, but some situational upside down the line. Also likely means the Titans don't see William Hayes as a full time player and/or want to bring Derrick Morgan along slowly.

odds on him being olb?

100% now on base downs. See posts 79 and 80 above.

 

[msommer]

The news on Ayers may mean that Stephen Tulloch is on his way out in Tennessee. That assumes that Curran is ready to play inside and McRath is seen as an every-down OLB, too. Big assumption, but worth considering.

every Titans fan loves Tulloch, but he could be a sacrifice to the cba (or maybe Munch doesn't like him at all)

 

[Jene Bramel]

It wasn't Austin or Liuget, but the Bears got an interesting 3-technique prospect in Stephen Paea here. Should see plenty of one-on-one blocking next to Julius Peppers.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Eagles get S Jaiquawn Jarrett. Might be a little early for him, but he's a very interesting two way safety. And with Quintin Mikell a free agent and questionable to return, Jarrett as the presumptive starting SS looks like a much better bet than Rahim Moore at first blush.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Going to have to wait until the third round (as expected, save Martez Wilson) for the 4-3 LB, 3-4 ILB prospects to come off the board.

Wait, what, Mouton to SD????

 

[Jene Bramel]

Mouton is likely playing inside here, and while there's all kinds of uncertainly with FA (Cooper/Burnett/Siler) and injury (Butler), this still seems like a big reach. Second rounders are going to get chances to play, though. Here's the first "surprise" who might become an IDP value.

Not sure I like him inside in the 3-4, though.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Not excited with Dontay Moch's prospects. Situational OLB/DE unless Zimmer wants to morph toward a 3-4 -- finally.

Definitely worth watching Nate Irving in Denver. Joe Mays isn't safe at MLB, and Irving might cover well enough to play every down if he wins the MLB job. Coverage will be a question mark though.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Linebackers coming quick now. Kelvin Sheppard probably slots as the long term SILB next to Posluszny. Groomed behind Andra Davis, as I expect that Posluszny gets re-signed there.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Justin Houston interesting pick for Kansas City. Could see plenty of single blocking at LOLB opposite Tamba Hali, but not likely to tackle well enough to be productive for most fantasy leagues.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Zimmer says Moch is a situational rusher for now and that they haven't decided whether Michael Johnson is a defensive end or linebacker yet. Lack of OTAs will kill the upside for this defense. Lots of playmakers and scheme versatility, but they're losing way too much time in the playbook to settle into a new role.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Martez Wilson to an immediate every down OLB role in New Orleans. About as good a fit and situation as could be hoped for him.

 

[Tick]

I think Avril's upside is tied to VDB's health,

A true footballguy!This is always the best thread during drafts, Jene. Thanks.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Martez Wilson to an immediate every down OLB role in New Orleans. About as good a fit and situation as could be hoped for him.

Wilson expects to start out at SLB. I think he'll play every down. Scott Shanle almost certainly done, especially if Jonathan Casillas is healthy enough to play the other OLB spot.

 

[Tick]

2.40 -- LB BRUCE CARTER -- Dallas Cowboys

Love Bruce Carter. Don't necessarily love the slot as I was hoping he might find his way to a 4-3 OLB role, but there's upside opposite Demarcus Ware in the long term. Can certainly never have enough pass rushers and Carter's durability is a question, but it's still an interesting development for Anthony Spencer and the other young rushers on the depth chart.

ETA: Didn't consider Carter as a 3-4 ILB. It'll be interesting to see where he eventually slots.

Clarence Hill says Carter likely to slot inside here. Lee/Carter would make for an interesting every down duo when Brooking and James move on.

So which would have the most value long-term, Lee or Carter?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Mason Foster to the Bucs. May be Barrett Ruud insurance, but isn't a slam dunk Tampa-2 cover MLB. Could end up as Quincy Black insurance, too. Position and role will determine value. Gut says Ruud may be done here, but we'll see.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.40 -- LB BRUCE CARTER -- Dallas Cowboys

Love Bruce Carter. Don't necessarily love the slot as I was hoping he might find his way to a 4-3 OLB role, but there's upside opposite Demarcus Ware in the long term. Can certainly never have enough pass rushers and Carter's durability is a question, but it's still an interesting development for Anthony Spencer and the other young rushers on the depth chart.

ETA: Didn't consider Carter as a 3-4 ILB. It'll be interesting to see where he eventually slots.

Clarence Hill says Carter likely to slot inside here. Lee/Carter would make for an interesting every down duo when Brooking and James move on.

So which would have the most value long-term, Lee or Carter?

Err on the side of Lee tonight as most likely to play every down WILB, but I'm sleeping on it.