*** Official 2012-13 Hot Stove Thread (2 Viewers)

[Leroy Hoard]

Trout's BABIP due for a correction next year as well.

And does he have a sustainable WAR?

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Trout's BABIP due for a correction next year as well.

Concur. I'm probably not going to sniff him in any auction leagues next year.

 

[Eephus]

Padres acquire RHP Tyson Ross and INF A.J. Kirby-Jones from the Athletics in exchange for INF Andy Parrino and LHP Andrew Werner

Kirby-Jones has had good power numbers in the low minors but has no position other than 1B. Parrino could be a utilityman but isn't the answer to the Oaklands' SS question.Werner and Ross weren't very good this year.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Melky to the Jays

2/16

More than I thought he'd get

 

[shadyridr]

Melky to the Jays2/18More than I thought he'd get

thats actually a great gamble.

 

[Northern Voice]

2/16 being reported up here.

 

[Billy Bats]

Cardinals unveil third jersey, for Saturday games at Busch.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

2/16 being reported up here.

yeah was a typo

 

[Please See Mine]

Melky to the Jays2/16More than I thought he'd get

Wow. That doping killed him. There was speculation of like 5/50-60 or something during the season. Maybe high, but still. I guess on the other hand he might have been looking at 1/5 without the PED, so maybe it was worth it.And do the Jays need to have everyone?!

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Melky to the Jays2/16More than I thought he'd get

Wow. That doping killed him. There was speculation of like 5/50-60 or something during the season. Maybe high, but still. I guess on the other hand he might have been looking at 1/5 without the PED, so maybe it was worth it.And do the Jays need to have everyone?!

He's damn lucky he got that much, and for more than 1 year.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Melky to the Jays2/18More than I thought he'd get

thats actually a great gamble.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Melky to the Jays2/16More than I thought he'd get

Wow. That doping killed him. There was speculation of like 5/50-60 or something during the season. Maybe high, but still. I guess on the other hand he might have been looking at 1/5 without the PED, so maybe it was worth it.And do the Jays need to have everyone?!

canadian dollar is on par with US now!

 

[Raider Nation]

The Yankees could absolutely finish in last place. I could see it happening rather easily, in fact.

 

[Northern Voice]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

 

[Raider Nation]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

 

[Northern Voice]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1Blue Jays 11/1Rays 25/1Red Sox 30/1Orioles 30/1

 

[Raider Nation]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1Blue Jays 11/1Rays 25/1Red Sox 30/1Orioles 30/1

The Yanks being that low is based only on name recognition and an enormous fan base. They don't deserve to be anywhere near those odds. I won't bet against them, but I would advise others to play under whatever their season win total is.

 

[Eephus]

Juan Pierre to the Marlins.

 

[Raider Nation]

Juan Pierre to the Marlins.

HUGE!Take that, critics!

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1

Blue Jays 11/1

Rays 25/1

Red Sox 30/1

Orioles 30/1

WTF? No respect to Buck at all. Orioles would be really interesting if they were to sign Hamilton.

 

[Raider Nation]

The Marlins are negotiating contracts with Rich Garcés and Darin Erstad.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Padres acquire RHP Tyson Ross and INF A.J. Kirby-Jones from the Athletics in exchange for INF Andy Parrino and LHP Andrew Werner

Kirby-Jones has had good power numbers in the low minors but has no position other than 1B. Parrino could be a utilityman but isn't the answer to the Oaklands' SS question.Werner and Ross weren't very good this year.

Werner's peripherals weren't terrible last year. Ross' were. Werner gets a lot of GB's and pop-outs (weirdly), his 12.5% IFFB would rank him 11th in MLB if he had the IP to qualify. Could be a useful spot-starter/long-reliever type, whereas Ross was utterly useless.Perrino's has a .400 OBP in 113 AAA games, and he plays a bunch of positions. Kirby-Jones has some potential, but I think Oakland made out well here.

 

[Raider Nation]

Padres acquire RHP Tyson Ross and INF A.J. Kirby-Jones from the Athletics in exchange for INF Andy Parrino and LHP Andrew Werner

Kirby-Jones has had good power numbers in the low minors but has no position other than 1B. Parrino could be a utilityman but isn't the answer to the Oaklands' SS question.Werner and Ross weren't very good this year.

Werner's peripherals weren't terrible last year. Ross' were. Werner gets a lot of GB's and pop-outs (weirdly), his 12.5% IFFB would rank him 11th in MLB if he had the IP to qualify. Could be a useful spot-starter/long-reliever type, whereas Ross was utterly useless.Perrino's has a .400 OBP in 113 AAA games, and he plays a bunch of positions. Kirby-Jones has some potential, but I think Oakland made out well here.

How did I never know that you're a baseball nerd?

 

[RnR]

Juan Pierre to the Marlins.

Interesting landing spot for fantasy baseball purposes. Should see plenty of PAs there.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Padres acquire RHP Tyson Ross and INF A.J. Kirby-Jones from the Athletics in exchange for INF Andy Parrino and LHP Andrew Werner

Kirby-Jones has had good power numbers in the low minors but has no position other than 1B. Parrino could be a utilityman but isn't the answer to the Oaklands' SS question.Werner and Ross weren't very good this year.

Werner's peripherals weren't terrible last year. Ross' were. Werner gets a lot of GB's and pop-outs (weirdly), his 12.5% IFFB would rank him 11th in MLB if he had the IP to qualify. Could be a useful spot-starter/long-reliever type, whereas Ross was utterly useless.Perrino's has a .400 OBP in 113 AAA games, and he plays a bunch of positions. Kirby-Jones has some potential, but I think Oakland made out well here.

How did I never know that you're a baseball nerd?

I'm not in here a ton. But it kind of comes to A's fans naturally.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1

Blue Jays 11/1

Rays 25/1

Red Sox 30/1

Orioles 30/1

WTF? No respect to Buck at all. Orioles would be really interesting if they were to sign Hamilton.

Freakish run differential seasons have a way of evening themselves out the following season. See e.g. the 2007 Seattle Mariners. Won 88 games with negative run differential, got too full of themselves and traded for then-ace Erik Bedard because they thought they were "close" when they were really just an anomaly. Vegas posted a high win total over/under, and then they lost 100 the following season. Ton of stat nerds (myself included) made huge piles of money shorting them. Vegas doesn't make those mistakes any more.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1

Blue Jays 11/1

Rays 25/1

Red Sox 30/1

Orioles 30/1

WTF? No respect to Buck at all. Orioles would be really interesting if they were to sign Hamilton.

Freakish run differential seasons have a way of evening themselves out the following season. See e.g. the 2007 Seattle Mariners. Won 88 games with negative run differential, got too full of themselves and traded for then-ace Erik Bedard because they thought they were "close" when they were really just an anomaly. Vegas posted a high win total over/under, and then they lost 100 the following season. Ton of stat nerds (myself included) made huge piles of money shorting them. Vegas doesn't make those mistakes any more.

Enjoy your piles of money.Love the relatively young nucleus of that team, including the pitching staff. I don't see them as a one hit wonder at all and would consider them and TB the favorites in 2013 right now. Yankees are beyond old right now, Boston is a AAA club, and Toronto looks awesome on paper right now but it remains to be seen if that works out....they ended last year behind NY, Baltimore, and TB by a healthy margin.

Of all those odds I think Baltimore may be the best bet.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I would bet all day they finish ahead of the red sox.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1

Blue Jays 11/1

Rays 25/1

Red Sox 30/1

Orioles 30/1

WTF? No respect to Buck at all. Orioles would be really interesting if they were to sign Hamilton.

Freakish run differential seasons have a way of evening themselves out the following season. See e.g. the 2007 Seattle Mariners. Won 88 games with negative run differential, got too full of themselves and traded for then-ace Erik Bedard because they thought they were "close" when they were really just an anomaly. Vegas posted a high win total over/under, and then they lost 100 the following season. Ton of stat nerds (myself included) made huge piles of money shorting them. Vegas doesn't make those mistakes any more.

Enjoy your piles of money.Love the relatively young nucleus of that team, including the pitching staff. I don't see them as a one hit wonder at all and would consider them and TB the favorites in 2013 right now. Yankees are beyond old right now, Boston is a AAA club, and Toronto looks awesome on paper right now but it remains to be seen if that works out....they ended last year behind NY, Baltimore, and TB by a healthy margin.

Of all those odds I think Baltimore may be the best bet.

Sorry, I don't buy the demise of the Yankees. They won 95 games this season with a run differential of +136. Where's the significant dropoff coming from in 2012? Not 3B- ARod only had a 2.2 WAR in 2012. So yeah, he's old and crappy, but he was old and crappy in 2012 and they still won 95 games. Shortstop, sure maybe Jeter loses a game or so above replacement, but not much more than that. The corner outfield positions, perhaps, but it's really easy to find corner OF production, especially if you have a payroll like the Yankees. And keep in mind they'll get Brett Gardner back. Where else do you expect significant dropoff? I hate them like every other red-blooded American baseball fan, but 95 wins don't just disappear thanks to 12 months of aging.Red Sox will be terrible, but nobody else in that division will be. I could see the Orioles making a run at the wild card or even the division if they played in the AL Central, which would make the odds on a WS title better, but they don't. I see three teams in their own division that I'd give better odds to than the Os.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1

Blue Jays 11/1

Rays 25/1

Red Sox 30/1

Orioles 30/1

WTF? No respect to Buck at all. Orioles would be really interesting if they were to sign Hamilton.

Freakish run differential seasons have a way of evening themselves out the following season. See e.g. the 2007 Seattle Mariners. Won 88 games with negative run differential, got too full of themselves and traded for then-ace Erik Bedard because they thought they were "close" when they were really just an anomaly. Vegas posted a high win total over/under, and then they lost 100 the following season. Ton of stat nerds (myself included) made huge piles of money shorting them. Vegas doesn't make those mistakes any more.

Enjoy your piles of money.Love the relatively young nucleus of that team, including the pitching staff. I don't see them as a one hit wonder at all and would consider them and TB the favorites in 2013 right now. Yankees are beyond old right now, Boston is a AAA club, and Toronto looks awesome on paper right now but it remains to be seen if that works out....they ended last year behind NY, Baltimore, and TB by a healthy margin.

Of all those odds I think Baltimore may be the best bet.

Sorry, I don't buy the demise of the Yankees. They won 95 games this season with a run differential of +136. Where's the significant dropoff coming from in 2012? Not 3B- ARod only had a 2.2 WAR in 2012. So yeah, he's old and crappy, but he was old and crappy in 2012 and they still won 95 games. Shortstop, sure maybe Jeter loses a game or so above replacement, but not much more than that. The corner outfield positions, perhaps, but it's really easy to find corner OF production, especially if you have a payroll like the Yankees. And keep in mind they'll get Brett Gardner back. Where else do you expect significant dropoff? I hate them like every other red-blooded American baseball fan, but 95 wins don't just disappear thanks to 12 months of aging.Red Sox will be terrible, but nobody else in that division will be. I could see the Orioles making a run at the wild card or even the division if they played in the AL Central, which would make the odds on a WS title better, but they don't. I see three teams in their own division that I'd give better odds to than the Os.

Orioles in the Central? The Tigers would embarrass them.-The Orioles are good and will get better imo.

-Toronto will be better.

-TB could be even better with a full year of Longoria.

NY is going to fade fast imo. You're free to have your opinion about what they'll be in 2013 based on what they did in the regular season in 2012, but I won't follow you. The team right now is so over the hill in so many positions that they could face significant dropoff in multiple places. The only place this team is safe is at 2B.

They were a good team, built with a lot of talent from the past, but I think it's over.

And no, I don't think Brett Gardner is going to be their savior.

 

[Michael Brown]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1

Blue Jays 11/1

Rays 25/1

Red Sox 30/1

Orioles 30/1

WTF? No respect to Buck at all. Orioles would be really interesting if they were to sign Hamilton.

Freakish run differential seasons have a way of evening themselves out the following season. See e.g. the 2007 Seattle Mariners. Won 88 games with negative run differential, got too full of themselves and traded for then-ace Erik Bedard because they thought they were "close" when they were really just an anomaly. Vegas posted a high win total over/under, and then they lost 100 the following season. Ton of stat nerds (myself included) made huge piles of money shorting them. Vegas doesn't make those mistakes any more.

Enjoy your piles of money.Love the relatively young nucleus of that team, including the pitching staff. I don't see them as a one hit wonder at all and would consider them and TB the favorites in 2013 right now. Yankees are beyond old right now, Boston is a AAA club, and Toronto looks awesome on paper right now but it remains to be seen if that works out....they ended last year behind NY, Baltimore, and TB by a healthy margin.

Of all those odds I think Baltimore may be the best bet.

Sorry, I don't buy the demise of the Yankees. They won 95 games this season with a run differential of +136. Where's the significant dropoff coming from in 2012? Not 3B- ARod only had a 2.2 WAR in 2012. So yeah, he's old and crappy, but he was old and crappy in 2012 and they still won 95 games. Shortstop, sure maybe Jeter loses a game or so above replacement, but not much more than that. The corner outfield positions, perhaps, but it's really easy to find corner OF production, especially if you have a payroll like the Yankees. And keep in mind they'll get Brett Gardner back. Where else do you expect significant dropoff? I hate them like every other red-blooded American baseball fan, but 95 wins don't just disappear thanks to 12 months of aging.Red Sox will be terrible, but nobody else in that division will be. I could see the Orioles making a run at the wild card or even the division if they played in the AL Central, which would make the odds on a WS title better, but they don't. I see three teams in their own division that I'd give better odds to than the Os.

Orioles in the Central? The Tigers would embarrass them.-The Orioles are good and will get better imo.

-Toronto will be better.

-TB could be even better with a full year of Longoria.

NY is going to fade fast imo. You're free to have your opinion about what they'll be in 2013 based on what they did in the regular season in 2012, but I won't follow you. The team right now is so over the hill in so many positions that they could face significant dropoff in multiple places. The only place this team is safe is at 2B.

They were a good team, built with a lot of talent from the past, but I think it's over.

And no, I don't think Brett Gardner is going to be their savior.

The loss of Gardner to the lineup was a hugely underrated factor in their inability to create runs. He changes the entire dynamic of the offense, both in terms of getting on base and taking extra bases -- and his replacements in LF are of the plodding variety (Ibanez, A.Jones) where it often takes a 3-run HR to score them.Cano, Gardner, Teixeira, Jeter, ARod, Granderson are all above average to excellent at their respective positions. The starting staff has some question marks, but whose doesn't? The bullpen was excellent. This is going to be a transition year of sorts and I don't think they are going to win the division. But they also won't suddenly turn into an 85-loss mess in one offseason.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1

Blue Jays 11/1

Rays 25/1

Red Sox 30/1

Orioles 30/1

WTF? No respect to Buck at all. Orioles would be really interesting if they were to sign Hamilton.

Freakish run differential seasons have a way of evening themselves out the following season. See e.g. the 2007 Seattle Mariners. Won 88 games with negative run differential, got too full of themselves and traded for then-ace Erik Bedard because they thought they were "close" when they were really just an anomaly. Vegas posted a high win total over/under, and then they lost 100 the following season. Ton of stat nerds (myself included) made huge piles of money shorting them. Vegas doesn't make those mistakes any more.

Enjoy your piles of money.Love the relatively young nucleus of that team, including the pitching staff. I don't see them as a one hit wonder at all and would consider them and TB the favorites in 2013 right now. Yankees are beyond old right now, Boston is a AAA club, and Toronto looks awesome on paper right now but it remains to be seen if that works out....they ended last year behind NY, Baltimore, and TB by a healthy margin.

Of all those odds I think Baltimore may be the best bet.

Sorry, I don't buy the demise of the Yankees. They won 95 games this season with a run differential of +136. Where's the significant dropoff coming from in 2012? Not 3B- ARod only had a 2.2 WAR in 2012. So yeah, he's old and crappy, but he was old and crappy in 2012 and they still won 95 games. Shortstop, sure maybe Jeter loses a game or so above replacement, but not much more than that. The corner outfield positions, perhaps, but it's really easy to find corner OF production, especially if you have a payroll like the Yankees. And keep in mind they'll get Brett Gardner back. Where else do you expect significant dropoff? I hate them like every other red-blooded American baseball fan, but 95 wins don't just disappear thanks to 12 months of aging.Red Sox will be terrible, but nobody else in that division will be. I could see the Orioles making a run at the wild card or even the division if they played in the AL Central, which would make the odds on a WS title better, but they don't. I see three teams in their own division that I'd give better odds to than the Os.

Orioles in the Central? The Tigers would embarrass them.-The Orioles are good and will get better imo.

-Toronto will be better.

-TB could be even better with a full year of Longoria.

NY is going to fade fast imo. You're free to have your opinion about what they'll be in 2013 based on what they did in the regular season in 2012, but I won't follow you. The team right now is so over the hill in so many positions that they could face significant dropoff in multiple places. The only place this team is safe is at 2B.

They were a good team, built with a lot of talent from the past, but I think it's over.

And no, I don't think Brett Gardner is going to be their savior.

The loss of Gardner to the lineup was a hugely underrated factor in their inability to create runs. He changes the entire dynamic of the offense, both in terms of getting on base and taking extra bases -- and his replacements in LF are of the plodding variety (Ibanez, A.Jones) where it often takes a 3-run HR to score them.Cano, Gardner, Teixeira, Jeter, ARod, Granderson are all above average to excellent at their respective positions. The starting staff has some question marks, but whose doesn't? The bullpen was excellent. This is going to be a transition year of sorts and I don't think they are going to win the division. But they also won't suddenly turn into an 85-loss mess in one offseason.

Exactly why I'd take the Orioles at 30/1 over the Yankees at 11/1.

 

[Bogart]

Orioles in the Central? The Tigers would embarrass them.

Can I ask why? They won 5 more games this season in a tougher division and went 3-3 against Detroit last year. I think they could possibly hold their own.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Orioles in the Central? The Tigers would embarrass them.

Can I ask why? They won 5 more games this season in a tougher division and went 3-3 against Detroit last year. I think they could possibly hold their own.

:whoosh:

 

[TobiasFunke]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1

Blue Jays 11/1

Rays 25/1

Red Sox 30/1

Orioles 30/1

WTF? No respect to Buck at all. Orioles would be really interesting if they were to sign Hamilton.

Freakish run differential seasons have a way of evening themselves out the following season. See e.g. the 2007 Seattle Mariners. Won 88 games with negative run differential, got too full of themselves and traded for then-ace Erik Bedard because they thought they were "close" when they were really just an anomaly. Vegas posted a high win total over/under, and then they lost 100 the following season. Ton of stat nerds (myself included) made huge piles of money shorting them. Vegas doesn't make those mistakes any more.

Enjoy your piles of money.Love the relatively young nucleus of that team, including the pitching staff. I don't see them as a one hit wonder at all and would consider them and TB the favorites in 2013 right now. Yankees are beyond old right now, Boston is a AAA club, and Toronto looks awesome on paper right now but it remains to be seen if that works out....they ended last year behind NY, Baltimore, and TB by a healthy margin.

Of all those odds I think Baltimore may be the best bet.

Sorry, I don't buy the demise of the Yankees. They won 95 games this season with a run differential of +136. Where's the significant dropoff coming from in 2012? Not 3B- ARod only had a 2.2 WAR in 2012. So yeah, he's old and crappy, but he was old and crappy in 2012 and they still won 95 games. Shortstop, sure maybe Jeter loses a game or so above replacement, but not much more than that. The corner outfield positions, perhaps, but it's really easy to find corner OF production, especially if you have a payroll like the Yankees. And keep in mind they'll get Brett Gardner back. Where else do you expect significant dropoff? I hate them like every other red-blooded American baseball fan, but 95 wins don't just disappear thanks to 12 months of aging.Red Sox will be terrible, but nobody else in that division will be. I could see the Orioles making a run at the wild card or even the division if they played in the AL Central, which would make the odds on a WS title better, but they don't. I see three teams in their own division that I'd give better odds to than the Os.

Orioles in the Central? The Tigers would embarrass them.-The Orioles are good and will get better imo.

-Toronto will be better.

-TB could be even better with a full year of Longoria.

NY is going to fade fast imo. You're free to have your opinion about what they'll be in 2013 based on what they did in the regular season in 2012, but I won't follow you. The team right now is so over the hill in so many positions that they could face significant dropoff in multiple places. The only place this team is safe is at 2B.

They were a good team, built with a lot of talent from the past, but I think it's over.

And no, I don't think Brett Gardner is going to be their savior.

Yeah, I pretty much disagree with every word of this other than the "savior" thing. The point is that they don't need a savior. They won 95 games in the AL East. They just need to find small gains to offset the losses resulting from one year of aging. That's what Gardner can do. I suspect some free agent help with the rotation will do it too. And I'm guessing Rivera returns, so that helps too. They'll win 90+ again.The Tigers' eight-day long October hot streak seems to have imbued their fans with false bravado. Your team is not that good. It played in the weakest division in baseball in 2012 and only managed 88 wins- had they posted that record in any other division in baseball they would have missed the playoffs. The farm system is in rough shape, and fat ballplayers (of which you have several) tend not to age well. They made the WS mostly because the playoff format allowed them to pitch Verlander in 40% of the games in their first playoff series, and their opponent in the second series folded in a dizzying array of injuries and stupid moves. Once they arrived in the WS they got destroyed.

Sorry- I like the Tigers, and to the extent I root for any team in the AL it's probably them, but those are facts.

ETA: I also agree that Toronto will be better. So I guess you and I agree about two things.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1

Blue Jays 11/1

Rays 25/1

Red Sox 30/1

Orioles 30/1

WTF? No respect to Buck at all. Orioles would be really interesting if they were to sign Hamilton.

Freakish run differential seasons have a way of evening themselves out the following season. See e.g. the 2007 Seattle Mariners. Won 88 games with negative run differential, got too full of themselves and traded for then-ace Erik Bedard because they thought they were "close" when they were really just an anomaly. Vegas posted a high win total over/under, and then they lost 100 the following season. Ton of stat nerds (myself included) made huge piles of money shorting them. Vegas doesn't make those mistakes any more.

Enjoy your piles of money.Love the relatively young nucleus of that team, including the pitching staff. I don't see them as a one hit wonder at all and would consider them and TB the favorites in 2013 right now. Yankees are beyond old right now, Boston is a AAA club, and Toronto looks awesome on paper right now but it remains to be seen if that works out....they ended last year behind NY, Baltimore, and TB by a healthy margin.

Of all those odds I think Baltimore may be the best bet.

Sorry, I don't buy the demise of the Yankees. They won 95 games this season with a run differential of +136. Where's the significant dropoff coming from in 2012? Not 3B- ARod only had a 2.2 WAR in 2012. So yeah, he's old and crappy, but he was old and crappy in 2012 and they still won 95 games. Shortstop, sure maybe Jeter loses a game or so above replacement, but not much more than that. The corner outfield positions, perhaps, but it's really easy to find corner OF production, especially if you have a payroll like the Yankees. And keep in mind they'll get Brett Gardner back. Where else do you expect significant dropoff? I hate them like every other red-blooded American baseball fan, but 95 wins don't just disappear thanks to 12 months of aging.Red Sox will be terrible, but nobody else in that division will be. I could see the Orioles making a run at the wild card or even the division if they played in the AL Central, which would make the odds on a WS title better, but they don't. I see three teams in their own division that I'd give better odds to than the Os.

Orioles in the Central? The Tigers would embarrass them.-The Orioles are good and will get better imo.

-Toronto will be better.

-TB could be even better with a full year of Longoria.

NY is going to fade fast imo. You're free to have your opinion about what they'll be in 2013 based on what they did in the regular season in 2012, but I won't follow you. The team right now is so over the hill in so many positions that they could face significant dropoff in multiple places. The only place this team is safe is at 2B.

They were a good team, built with a lot of talent from the past, but I think it's over.

And no, I don't think Brett Gardner is going to be their savior.

Yeah, I pretty much disagree with every word of this other than the "savior" thing. The point is that they don't need a savior. They won 95 games in the AL East. They just need to find small gains to offset the losses resulting from one year of aging. That's what Gardner can do. I suspect some free agent help with the rotation will do it too. And I'm guessing Rivera returns, so that helps too. They'll win 90+ again.The Tigers' eight-day long October hot streak seems to have imbued their fans with false bravado. Your team is not that good. It played in the weakest division in baseball in 2012 and only managed 88 wins- had they posted that record in any other division in baseball they would have missed the playoffs. The farm system is in rough shape, and fat ballplayers (of which you have several) tend not to age well. They made the WS mostly because the playoff format allowed them to pitch Verlander in 40% of the games in their first playoff series, and their opponent in the second series folded in a dizzying array of injuries and stupid moves. Once they arrived in the WS they got destroyed.

Sorry- I like the Tigers, and to the extent I root for any team in the AL it's probably them, but those are facts.

ETA: I also agree that Toronto will be better. So I guess you and I agree about two things.

Yeah, feel free to hang your hat on the 2012 regular season + 30 year old Brett Gardner.My original response to your's was the "Yankees are beyond old right now." "Right now" leaves an opening to additions but I can't speak on any additions until they've been added.

You're free to believe what you want about the grey hairs in pinstripes, but I'll say again I'd sooner bet on 30/1 odds for Baltimore than I would 11/1 for NY.

The "bravado" about the Tigers was a successful trip. Thanks.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1

Blue Jays 11/1

Rays 25/1

Red Sox 30/1

Orioles 30/1

WTF? No respect to Buck at all. Orioles would be really interesting if they were to sign Hamilton.

Freakish run differential seasons have a way of evening themselves out the following season. See e.g. the 2007 Seattle Mariners. Won 88 games with negative run differential, got too full of themselves and traded for then-ace Erik Bedard because they thought they were "close" when they were really just an anomaly. Vegas posted a high win total over/under, and then they lost 100 the following season. Ton of stat nerds (myself included) made huge piles of money shorting them. Vegas doesn't make those mistakes any more.

Enjoy your piles of money.Love the relatively young nucleus of that team, including the pitching staff. I don't see them as a one hit wonder at all and would consider them and TB the favorites in 2013 right now. Yankees are beyond old right now, Boston is a AAA club, and Toronto looks awesome on paper right now but it remains to be seen if that works out....they ended last year behind NY, Baltimore, and TB by a healthy margin.

Of all those odds I think Baltimore may be the best bet.

Sorry, I don't buy the demise of the Yankees. They won 95 games this season with a run differential of +136. Where's the significant dropoff coming from in 2012? Not 3B- ARod only had a 2.2 WAR in 2012. So yeah, he's old and crappy, but he was old and crappy in 2012 and they still won 95 games. Shortstop, sure maybe Jeter loses a game or so above replacement, but not much more than that. The corner outfield positions, perhaps, but it's really easy to find corner OF production, especially if you have a payroll like the Yankees. And keep in mind they'll get Brett Gardner back. Where else do you expect significant dropoff? I hate them like every other red-blooded American baseball fan, but 95 wins don't just disappear thanks to 12 months of aging.Red Sox will be terrible, but nobody else in that division will be. I could see the Orioles making a run at the wild card or even the division if they played in the AL Central, which would make the odds on a WS title better, but they don't. I see three teams in their own division that I'd give better odds to than the Os.

Orioles in the Central? The Tigers would embarrass them.-The Orioles are good and will get better imo.

-Toronto will be better.

-TB could be even better with a full year of Longoria.

NY is going to fade fast imo. You're free to have your opinion about what they'll be in 2013 based on what they did in the regular season in 2012, but I won't follow you. The team right now is so over the hill in so many positions that they could face significant dropoff in multiple places. The only place this team is safe is at 2B.

They were a good team, built with a lot of talent from the past, but I think it's over.

And no, I don't think Brett Gardner is going to be their savior.

Yeah, I pretty much disagree with every word of this other than the "savior" thing. The point is that they don't need a savior. They won 95 games in the AL East. They just need to find small gains to offset the losses resulting from one year of aging. That's what Gardner can do. I suspect some free agent help with the rotation will do it too. And I'm guessing Rivera returns, so that helps too. They'll win 90+ again.The Tigers' eight-day long October hot streak seems to have imbued their fans with false bravado. Your team is not that good. It played in the weakest division in baseball in 2012 and only managed 88 wins- had they posted that record in any other division in baseball they would have missed the playoffs. The farm system is in rough shape, and fat ballplayers (of which you have several) tend not to age well. They made the WS mostly because the playoff format allowed them to pitch Verlander in 40% of the games in their first playoff series, and their opponent in the second series folded in a dizzying array of injuries and stupid moves. Once they arrived in the WS they got destroyed.

Sorry- I like the Tigers, and to the extent I root for any team in the AL it's probably them, but those are facts.

ETA: I also agree that Toronto will be better. So I guess you and I agree about two things.

Yeah, feel free to hang your hat on the 2012 regular season + 30 year old Brett Gardner.My original response to your's was the "Yankees are beyond old right now." "Right now" leaves an opening to additions but I can't speak on any additions until they've been added.

You're free to believe what you want about the grey hairs in pinstripes, but I'll say again I'd sooner bet on 30/1 odds for Baltimore than I would 11/1 for NY.

The "bravado" about the Tigers was a successful trip. Thanks.

Don't worry about your Tigers. They'll keep making the playoffs with 85-89 wins for the next couple years, because they're in the weakest division in baseball by far. Must be nice.We'll have to agree to disagree about the Yankees generally. Not necessarily about the odds, though. I like the Orioles at 30-1 and the Yankees at 11-1 about the same, which is to say I don't like either of them all that much. If I had to bet one I might bet the Orioles. I like both of them more than I like the odds on the Jays and Red Sox, though. I think the Rays are the value play at those odds.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)

Yankees 11/1

Blue Jays 11/1

Rays 25/1

Red Sox 30/1

Orioles 30/1

WTF? No respect to Buck at all. Orioles would be really interesting if they were to sign Hamilton.

Freakish run differential seasons have a way of evening themselves out the following season. See e.g. the 2007 Seattle Mariners. Won 88 games with negative run differential, got too full of themselves and traded for then-ace Erik Bedard because they thought they were "close" when they were really just an anomaly. Vegas posted a high win total over/under, and then they lost 100 the following season. Ton of stat nerds (myself included) made huge piles of money shorting them. Vegas doesn't make those mistakes any more.

Enjoy your piles of money.Love the relatively young nucleus of that team, including the pitching staff. I don't see them as a one hit wonder at all and would consider them and TB the favorites in 2013 right now. Yankees are beyond old right now, Boston is a AAA club, and Toronto looks awesome on paper right now but it remains to be seen if that works out....they ended last year behind NY, Baltimore, and TB by a healthy margin.

Of all those odds I think Baltimore may be the best bet.

Sorry, I don't buy the demise of the Yankees. They won 95 games this season with a run differential of +136. Where's the significant dropoff coming from in 2012? Not 3B- ARod only had a 2.2 WAR in 2012. So yeah, he's old and crappy, but he was old and crappy in 2012 and they still won 95 games. Shortstop, sure maybe Jeter loses a game or so above replacement, but not much more than that. The corner outfield positions, perhaps, but it's really easy to find corner OF production, especially if you have a payroll like the Yankees. And keep in mind they'll get Brett Gardner back. Where else do you expect significant dropoff? I hate them like every other red-blooded American baseball fan, but 95 wins don't just disappear thanks to 12 months of aging.Red Sox will be terrible, but nobody else in that division will be. I could see the Orioles making a run at the wild card or even the division if they played in the AL Central, which would make the odds on a WS title better, but they don't. I see three teams in their own division that I'd give better odds to than the Os.

Orioles in the Central? The Tigers would embarrass them.-The Orioles are good and will get better imo.

-Toronto will be better.

-TB could be even better with a full year of Longoria.

NY is going to fade fast imo. You're free to have your opinion about what they'll be in 2013 based on what they did in the regular season in 2012, but I won't follow you. The team right now is so over the hill in so many positions that they could face significant dropoff in multiple places. The only place this team is safe is at 2B.

They were a good team, built with a lot of talent from the past, but I think it's over.

And no, I don't think Brett Gardner is going to be their savior.

Yeah, I pretty much disagree with every word of this other than the "savior" thing. The point is that they don't need a savior. They won 95 games in the AL East. They just need to find small gains to offset the losses resulting from one year of aging. That's what Gardner can do. I suspect some free agent help with the rotation will do it too. And I'm guessing Rivera returns, so that helps too. They'll win 90+ again.The Tigers' eight-day long October hot streak seems to have imbued their fans with false bravado. Your team is not that good. It played in the weakest division in baseball in 2012 and only managed 88 wins- had they posted that record in any other division in baseball they would have missed the playoffs. The farm system is in rough shape, and fat ballplayers (of which you have several) tend not to age well. They made the WS mostly because the playoff format allowed them to pitch Verlander in 40% of the games in their first playoff series, and their opponent in the second series folded in a dizzying array of injuries and stupid moves. Once they arrived in the WS they got destroyed.

Sorry- I like the Tigers, and to the extent I root for any team in the AL it's probably them, but those are facts.

ETA: I also agree that Toronto will be better. So I guess you and I agree about two things.

Yeah, feel free to hang your hat on the 2012 regular season + 30 year old Brett Gardner.My original response to your's was the "Yankees are beyond old right now." "Right now" leaves an opening to additions but I can't speak on any additions until they've been added.

You're free to believe what you want about the grey hairs in pinstripes, but I'll say again I'd sooner bet on 30/1 odds for Baltimore than I would 11/1 for NY.

The "bravado" about the Tigers was a successful trip. Thanks.

Don't worry about your Tigers. They'll keep making the playoffs with 85-89 wins for the next couple years, because they're in the weakest division in baseball by far. Must be nice.We'll have to agree to disagree about the Yankees generally. Not necessarily about the odds, though. I like the Orioles at 30-1 and the Yankees at 11-1 about the same, which is to say I don't like either of them all that much. If I had to bet one I might bet the Orioles. I like both of them more than I like the odds on the Jays and Red Sox, though. I think the Rays are the value play at those odds.

Your posts are entertaining. I pretty much know what is coming before it's typed. Doesn't matter, whoever you choose will be right and you'll make piles of money.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Should the AL get three wildcards, and the NL one?

 

[Northern Voice]

Yankees still have to be AL East favourites, no?

Not a chance. The Jays are the favorites.

Vegas Odds to Win World Series (only futures I could find on a quick search)Yankees 11/1Blue Jays 11/1Rays 25/1Red Sox 30/1Orioles 30/1

The Yanks being that low is based only on name recognition and an enormous fan base. They don't deserve to be anywhere near those odds. I won't bet against them, but I would advise others to play under whatever their season win total is.

I pretty much agree with the order of the oddsmakers. Yankees and Jays at the top, followed by Rays, then Baltimore/Boston. The Rays only need to add a bat or two to be right in the mix, but until they do, I don't think they're on the level of Toronto and New York. I like Baltimore's lineup but don't think their starting pitching matches up to the rest of the division and I wouldn't count on the bullpen replicating this season or them winning every close game all season long. Boston doesn't look great now but they have the money and flexibility to turn it around quickly.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Should the AL get three wildcards, and the NL one?

Right. The National League has only won the last three WS and 4 of the last 5. The AL is just on a different level.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Should the AL get three wildcards, and the NL one?

Right. The National League has only won the last three WS and 4 of the last 5. The AL is just on a different level.

I hate to defend a throwaway, ####ty "my thing is better than your thing" post, but the AL has soundly drubbed the NL in interleague play for 9 years in a row. Not just a 7 game series between 2 teams, but 252 total games between all teams.

 

[Eephus]

Jeremy Guthrie 3/$25M from the Royals. I guess that's the going rate for a league average innings eater.

KC's rotation seems set with Guthrie, Santana, Hochevar, Chen and Mendoza. There's not a lot of upside there unless you really believe in Ervin Santana. Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery are potential futures. Duffy and Paulino may be available in the second half following elbow surgeries.

 

[MAC_32]

Jeremy Guthrie 3/$25M from the Royals. I guess that's the going rate for a league average innings eater.KC's rotation seems set with Guthrie, Santana, Hochevar, Chen and Mendoza. There's not a lot of upside there unless you really believe in Ervin Santana. Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery are potential futures. Duffy and Paulino may be available in the second half following elbow surgeries.

The Royals showing why they're a perennial doormat, I was too young to really appreciate it but they seemed like a really fun team about 2 decades ago. Kinda like the Bucs.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Should the AL get three wildcards, and the NL one?

Right. The National League has only won the last three WS and 4 of the last 5. The AL is just on a different level.

I hate to defend a throwaway, ####ty "my thing is better than your thing" post, but the AL has soundly drubbed the NL in interleague play for 9 years in a row. Not just a 7 game series between 2 teams, but 252 total games between all teams.

The AL has an inherent advantage over NL teams in interleague play because they have the ability to budget for the DH. This allows them to budget more money for a bat (example David Ortiz) who would be otherwise useless on an NL team.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Should the AL get three wildcards, and the NL one?

Right. The National League has only won the last three WS and 4 of the last 5. The AL is just on a different level.

I hate to defend a throwaway, ####ty "my thing is better than your thing" post, but the AL has soundly drubbed the NL in interleague play for 9 years in a row. Not just a 7 game series between 2 teams, but 252 total games between all teams.

The AL has an inherent advantage over NL teams in interleague play because they have the ability to budget for the DH. This allows them to budget more money for a bat (example David Ortiz) who would be otherwise useless on an NL team.

The NL has an inherent advantage over the AL teams in interleague play because their pitchers bat on a regular basis.

 

[Eephus]

131 days until opening day

 

[Eephus]

Robert Andino to Seattle for Trayvon Robinson

 

[Brady Marino]

Robert Andino to Seattle for Trayvon Robinson

I was wondering what caused the ground to rumble under me earlier...

 

[Bogart]

Robert Andino to Seattle for Trayvon Robinson

"Quit making up names." - 90 percent of MLB fans right now