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*** Official 2012-13 Hot Stove Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eephus
- Start date
Bogart
Footballguy
Frieri in the 8th and Madson in the 9th could be very very strong.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Two very different years. In 2007, he had an insanely high BABIP of .393. In 2008, his BABIP was still high (.344), but he also took a more disciplined approach and walked a lot more, and struck out a lot less. Granted, his power dropped and he went from 24 HR/.209 ISO to 9 HR/.128 ISO, but that was his best year, WAR-wise. It really boils down to what BJ Upton wants to do, the approach of his next hitting coach, etc. No telling what we'll get next year.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
The Phils hired Steve Henderson who was the TB Rays hitting coach from 2006-2009.Two very different years. In 2007, he had an insanely high BABIP of .393. In 2008, his BABIP was still high (.344), but he also took a more disciplined approach and walked a lot more, and struck out a lot less. Granted, his power dropped and he went from 24 HR/.209 ISO to 9 HR/.128 ISO, but that was his best year, WAR-wise. It really boils down to what BJ Upton wants to do, the approach of his next hitting coach, etc. No telling what we'll get next year.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Couldn't bring myself to even consider the possibility!...Jeter?
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
He got caught?
Bogart
Footballguy
Buster Olney of ESPN.com was told by a person involved in the Zack Greinke talks that there is a "good chance" his new contract is worth more than CC Sabathia's record record $161 million deal.
Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com previously reported that the deal could be in the six-year, $150 million range, and evidently it might end up being higher than that. With the Angels reportedly out of the mix, the spend-happy Dodgers look like the clear favorites to land the right-hander. The Rangers are also in the mix. Nov 27 - 6:11 PM
Source: Buster Olney on Twitter
Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com previously reported that the deal could be in the six-year, $150 million range, and evidently it might end up being higher than that. With the Angels reportedly out of the mix, the spend-happy Dodgers look like the clear favorites to land the right-hander. The Rangers are also in the mix. Nov 27 - 6:11 PM
Source: Buster Olney on Twitter
Brady Marino
Footballguy
Plus, he still gets the yips when people are watching him.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Wow, so much for my thinking that someone was gonna get him at a bargain this offseason. I guess on-field performance doesn't matter like it used to.
Eephus
Footballguy
I think we all have to recalibrate the meanings of bargain and value
boubucarow
Footballguy
is insane.
Please See Mine
Footballguy
Carlos Ruiz popped for 25 games for adderall use.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Phillies_catcher_Carlos_Ruiz_suspended_25_games_for_Adderall_use.html
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Phillies_catcher_Carlos_Ruiz_suspended_25_games_for_Adderall_use.html
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
And he kept on taking it after he was busted for it once, even though he knew he'd be tested regularly after the first failed test. Obviously he thought it was helping his performance substantially.
Please See Mine
Footballguy
oops.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Isnt Adderall a masking agent for steroids?
shadyridr
Footballguy
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Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Never heard this.Isnt Adderall a masking agent for steroids?
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
No. It's speed.Isnt Adderall a masking agent for steroids?
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Well there's a huge difference between "ok-ish" and the top ten pitchers in baseball. But I think there's a good argument that Greinke is in the Top 10 of starters as far as value going forward.His rank in fWAR over the last five years: 7,25,12,1, 16. That's pretty frigging impressive. You can count the number of guys who have appeared in the top 25 each of the last 5 years on one hand and still have a couple fingers left over. You can count the number of guys with that kind of resume who are younger than 33 on one hand and have four fingers left over.Honestly if money is no object, who would you rather have on your team for the next six years than Greinke? Verlander, Kershaw, Felix, Strasburg, Price ... anyone else? Hamels and Cain is basically his equals. Sale or Darvish have a higher upside but more risk.I wouldnt even rank him among the top 10 pitchers in baseball.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
1 Verlander2 Felix3 Kershaw4 Price5 Strasburg6 Hamels7 Cain8 Gio G9 Bumgarner10 Sale11 M Moore12 J Weaver13 J Zimmermann14 M Latos15 DarvishThere are probably more but that is a good start.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Only one I can think of that's missing is WeaverWell there's a huge difference between "ok-ish" and the top ten pitchers in baseball. But I think there's a good argument that Greinke is in the Top 10 of starters as far as value going forward.His rank in fWAR over the last five years: 7,25,12,1, 16. That's pretty frigging impressive. You can count the number of guys who have appeared in the top 25 each of the last 5 years on one hand and still have a couple fingers left over. You can count the number of guys with that kind of resume who are younger than 33 on one hand and have four fingers left over.Honestly if money is no object, who would you rather have on your team for the next six years than Greinke? Verlander, Kershaw, Felix, Strasburg, Price ... anyone else? Hamels and Cain is basically his equals. Sale or Darvish have a higher upside but more risk.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
There's no way I'm taking Gio, Sale, Moore, Zimmerman, Latos, or Darvish over Greinke for the next 6 years. Gio/Sale/Moore have the talent and upside, but Greinke is already a Cy Young award winner with several outstanding seasons under his belt which has to count for more than potential. And the other guys aren't even close IMO.ETA: but I do like Zimmerman a lot
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scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Suit yourself. Greinke's Cy Young was in 2009...that's a while ago. He's been about a 3.70 ERA pitcher since 2009 and that's pretty accurate with his career ERA. He has really good control and can K guys, but isn't elite in the strikeout department. He's a good pitcher but no lock to be better the next 6 years than anyone I listed. And the guy has some baggage that comes with him as well.
Eephus
Footballguy
Greinke is the only one available on the market
He doesn't have to be better than those guys, he only has to be better than Sanchez, Haren, Jackson, et.al.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Phils about to acquire Wilton Lopez from the Astros. Appears that Sebastian Valle is going to Houston.
If so, looks like the Phils have solved that setup man problem.
If so, looks like the Phils have solved that setup man problem.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I'm a Nats fan and if money was not an issue I'd trade Gio for Greinke in a heartbeat. Zimmermann too.From that list the only one I'd say for sure that I didn't already mention was Weaver.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I can't fully support any player who openly admits to quitting on his team (even if it is the Royals despite the fact the organization quit a long time ago), and who still throws tantrums on the field when calls don't go his way. He's a tremendous talent but I'm not sure I'd want him at anywhere near the price he's commanding.
shadyridr
Footballguy
This guy disagreeshttp://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8627624/rating-players-contracts-major-league-baseball-part-2Gio ranked 11th in his trade value column. Grienke not even in the top 50
Eephus
Footballguy
Keri's column factors in salaries
shadyridr
Footballguy
true, i missed tobias saying "if money wasnt an issue"
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Exactly. That's what I said "if money was not an issue." If I'm going to pay a player X salary for 5 years, I'd rather have Greinke than Gio or Zimmermann or really anyone other maybe 8 or so guys.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Apparently you have a much higher opinion of Greinke than I do, or a lower opinion of Gio/Zimm.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Maybe both.I like both of our guys, but Gio had a career year in 2012 with a .267 BABIP that probably won't repeat. Zimmermann is rock solid, but he's not a K an inning guy and is still just a couple years removed from TJ surgery. Greinke has the track record and the elite K/BB stuff.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Gio matured and moved to the NL. He was already a K per inning guy and facing NL batting orders wasn't going to hurt that. His ERA has dropped every year for 5 years. You may not believe in the guy on your favorite team but I would disagree with you when saying Gio's year was borderline fluky.Zimmermann isn't a K per inning guy. About 6/7 per 9. But his control is everybit as good as Greinke's. His ERA the past 2 years is no fluke either, he's become a fantastic young pitcher and the sky is the limit.ETA: As stated before, Greinke is a little slice of crazy. He's gone crazy on umps recently and has had his issues in the past playing in front of people. I doubt he'd be much of a fit in NY or Boston because he's sensitive.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
You're talking me into Gio a bit- I appreciate that. Still think I perfer Greinke to him by a hair, and prefer Grienke to Zimmermann by more than that.Yeah, I know about Greinke's issues but they don't concern me. If they haven't affected his consistency in his early to mid 20s, I don't think they will in his late 20s to early 30s. I guess maybe he has to stay away from NY and Boston if that's how his issues work, but there's 27 teams left so I'm not sure that impacts his value that much.Gio matured and moved to the NL. He was already a K per inning guy and facing NL batting orders wasn't going to hurt that. His ERA has dropped every year for 5 years. You may not believe in the guy on your favorite team but I would disagree with you when saying Gio's year was borderline fluky.Zimmermann isn't a K per inning guy. About 6/7 per 9. But his control is everybit as good as Greinke's. His ERA the past 2 years is no fluke either, he's become a fantastic young pitcher and the sky is the limit.ETA: As stated before, Greinke is a little slice of crazy. He's gone crazy on umps recently and has had his issues in the past playing in front of people. I doubt he'd be much of a fit in NY or Boston because he's sensitive.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Greinke has always been a SABERMATRICIAN stud but it never translates on the field. He always has that one implosion inning where everything seems to go wrong.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
It amazes me what these guys make. $12 million guaranteed for this has been. Good for him I guess.
Eephus
Footballguy
He was very effective last year, albeit in very limited IP.Pettite has been a consistently good performer. In 17 MLB seasons, his worst ERA+ was 97. If he's healthy enough to pitch, chances are he'll do it well enough to earn the $12M. If he's not healthy enough, it's the Yankees.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Pettitte was excellent last year, and has become nearly automatic in terms of postseason. Early in his career he was overrated, but over the last 10 years he has become a playoff horse.'Eephus said:
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Sounds like BJ Upton is heading to Atlanta. Terms not yet known.
Obviously judgment depends on the terms of the deal, but like I said before, I think the OBP bounces back a little but the power takes a big hit with the NL East move. For the 2013 Braves, slight downgrade from 2012 Bourn, but not a huge one. Bourn was slumping pretty severely there at the end.
Obviously judgment depends on the terms of the deal, but like I said before, I think the OBP bounces back a little but the power takes a big hit with the NL East move. For the 2013 Braves, slight downgrade from 2012 Bourn, but not a huge one. Bourn was slumping pretty severely there at the end.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Bourn is a FA. Upton replaces him in CF.Upton deal is 5 years 70-75 million according to the Tweeter.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Bourn, Upton, Victorino, Hamilton, Pagan all free agents. Buyer's market for free agent CF.
Eephus
Footballguy
That's not a bad deal from the Braves perspective given the current economics.
