Another
I gave up counting at 13 teams that were within 9.74 points of the cut line that had Tate count for their team. Didn't really look to see how many of them would have dropped below though.
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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ignoratio Elenchi
- Start date
I gave up counting at 13 teams that were within 9.74 points of the cut line that had Tate count for their team. Didn't really look to see how many of them would have dropped below though.
Good to see that the numbers are back to where we'd expect. I think it shows that week 1 was a fluke not a new trend.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Still alive. 176 points every week. I think that would get me to the final 250 if I can keep it up. But no Donald Brown this week, Bush hurt...gonna die at RB. Need Gates to step it up and Dwayne Allen to keep scoring for me.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Wow... small roster guys took it on the chin this week. 24-30 looking optimal.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Here are the average scores for week 3, trending as expected. Week 1 does appear to have been an anomaly.
Code:
SIZE AVG SCORE18 177.8219 181.0020 182.2721 184.0522 185.2523 185.6424 188.5825 187.5926 187.0927 187.3928 189.7629 186.4930 186.20Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
At this rate, the large rosters are like 4+ times more likely to make the final 250 than the small rosters, which IIRC is approximately what we've seen in the past.
It's the debate that never ends, but I still think it's better to do what you can to get there and take your chances in the final three weeks. If someone could show that small rosters have a 4x better chance of winning the big money in the final 250, I might reconsider, but currently I continue to assume that any advantage they have doesn't outweigh the advantage of having a large roster during the first 13 weeks.
It's the debate that never ends, but I still think it's better to do what you can to get there and take your chances in the final three weeks. If someone could show that small rosters have a 4x better chance of winning the big money in the final 250, I might reconsider, but currently I continue to assume that any advantage they have doesn't outweigh the advantage of having a large roster during the first 13 weeks.
Born to Run
Footballguy
I am one of the teams that got dropped:Score 161.80'Modog814 said:
Cutoff 161.90
There needs to be another emoticon to picture what I am thinking.
is not even close....
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Sorry BtR :( -QGI am one of the teams that got dropped:Score 161.80'Modog814 said:
Cutoff 161.90
There needs to be another emoticon to picture what I am thinking.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Now, this isn't a knock on FURIOUS STYLES' team, but in case you were wondering if this contest is all luck.
Second-highest scoring team this week:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ben Roethlisberger $18 22.65 25.75 44.00 bye
Andy Dalton $14 10.15 32.30 34.00 bye
Joe Flacco $11 26.85 15.60 35.40 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ray Rice $33 24.30 21.20 26.00 bye
Jamaal Charles $24 8.70 5.20 40.80 bye
Reggie Bush $20 17.50 34.70 7.20 bye
Jonathan Dwyer $4 7.40 5.00 1.00 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calvin Johnson $29 17.10 17.40 32.40 bye
Larry Fitzgerald $25 10.30 1.40 26.40 bye
Dwayne Bowe $17 8.30 30.20 14.90 bye
Antonio Brown $17 11.80 15.80 21.70 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dustin Keller $10 2.20 0.00 0.00 bye
Heath Miller $7 17.00 12.40 30.00 bye
Todd Heap $3 7.70 13.70 0.00 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Robbie Gould $3 12.00 6.00 15.00 bye
Lawrence Tynes $3 5.00 17.00 24.00 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pittsburgh Steelers $5 4.00 4.00 3.00 bye
Carolina Panthers $3 2.00 11.00 2.00 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 149.55 205.70 263.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Second-highest scoring team this week:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ben Roethlisberger $18 22.65 25.75 44.00 bye
Andy Dalton $14 10.15 32.30 34.00 bye
Joe Flacco $11 26.85 15.60 35.40 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ray Rice $33 24.30 21.20 26.00 bye
Jamaal Charles $24 8.70 5.20 40.80 bye
Reggie Bush $20 17.50 34.70 7.20 bye
Jonathan Dwyer $4 7.40 5.00 1.00 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calvin Johnson $29 17.10 17.40 32.40 bye
Larry Fitzgerald $25 10.30 1.40 26.40 bye
Dwayne Bowe $17 8.30 30.20 14.90 bye
Antonio Brown $17 11.80 15.80 21.70 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dustin Keller $10 2.20 0.00 0.00 bye
Heath Miller $7 17.00 12.40 30.00 bye
Todd Heap $3 7.70 13.70 0.00 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Robbie Gould $3 12.00 6.00 15.00 bye
Lawrence Tynes $3 5.00 17.00 24.00 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pittsburgh Steelers $5 4.00 4.00 3.00 bye
Carolina Panthers $3 2.00 11.00 2.00 bye
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 149.55 205.70 263.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
That would require effortYou should try and format FS's entry - it makes it look like all of his byes are this week
His defenses are totally slacking btw.
-QG
rustycolts
Footballguy
187.75 this week.Man I need Chris Johnson to do something what a waste of 27 bucks.I have a 28 man roster stats for them are looking pretty good so far. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/109974.php
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
I don't think I understand the point you're making here. Can you elaborate?
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
His gigantic point total is mostly due to Roethlisberger, Miller, and Tynes. Hardly numbers anyone could predict from players of this caliber.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Huh, I wouldn't say it's "mostly" due to those three. He also got 20+ from Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. But I do agree that in general, in order to come out on top you need to get points from unexpected places. I guess I was curious why you singled out this entry specifically. The #1 socring team this week got equivalent points from Roethlisberger, Miller, and Succop this week, so I guess I was thrown off by you posting the #2 overall team to make this point.
BaBastage
Footballguy
This isn't a complaint, but all you have to do is put it inside the "[ code][ /code]" tags (without the spaces), and it will preserve the space formatting. It's pretty simple.That would require effort
sbuck143
Footballguy
253 pts and my highest weekly finish ever in 6 yrs of doing this!
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/101000.php
Hulkamania lives forever, brotha!
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/101000.php
Hulkamania lives forever, brotha!
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jdoggydogg
Footballguy
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Actually, I've been here for years and never tried that. Thanks!This isn't a complaint, but all you have to do is put it inside the "[ code][ /code]" tags (without the spaces), and it will preserve the space formatting. It's pretty simple.That would require effort
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
I really like that team
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
190.4 this week for me. I have been happy with my team so far though the bye weeks will be the true test. Really need Blackmon and one of my other RB's to do something. Week 6 in particular looks dangerous for me.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/100157.php
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/100157.php
Clark Griswold
Footballguy
I made it through but only a matter of time before I get put out IMHO. When you hitch your wagon to Chris Johnson having a good year I guess an early exit is inevitable.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Ignoratio, it seems that the early thinning of the short rosters pre-bye weeks is actually a little steeper this year than last. Maybe I'm misremembering it though. Do you have that data readily available? If not, don't worry about it. Nothing more than idle curiosity on my part.
Thus far my only non-contributors are (24 man roster): Blackmon (looking like a complete turd of a pick), Driver (nothing more than a flier to begin with), Britt (knew he would be a few weeks before he contributed), and Little.
Ahhh Greg Little. I knew better, but the lure of a bajillion targets a game was too much to resist. RTSports did a preseason blurb on why he was a sleeper:
"Little struggles with drops and isn't a great route runner but he is the most talented receiver for the Browns. He is a big-play threat capable of the big game. He should lead that team in targets at receiver and has plenty of upside for a big second season."
So aside from not being able to run routes or catch the ball, he's really good. Maybe I'm missing something, but if a WR can't do those 2 things what else matters? And yes, I had him late last year in 2 leagues due to injuries to my real WRs, so my bitterness runs deep.
Thus far my only non-contributors are (24 man roster): Blackmon (looking like a complete turd of a pick), Driver (nothing more than a flier to begin with), Britt (knew he would be a few weeks before he contributed), and Little.
Ahhh Greg Little. I knew better, but the lure of a bajillion targets a game was too much to resist. RTSports did a preseason blurb on why he was a sleeper:
"Little struggles with drops and isn't a great route runner but he is the most talented receiver for the Browns. He is a big-play threat capable of the big game. He should lead that team in targets at receiver and has plenty of upside for a big second season."
So aside from not being able to run routes or catch the ball, he's really good. Maybe I'm missing something, but if a WR can't do those 2 things what else matters? And yes, I had him late last year in 2 leagues due to injuries to my real WRs, so my bitterness runs deep.
sbuck143
Footballguy
Heh. Thanks......this team is by far the most stud heavy I've ever gone, with the deflation of stud prices this year. I'm regretting Blackmon as a choice, and in retrospect, Taiwan Jones handcuffing McFadden was probably a waste of $2. Right at the deadline, I swapped out Vernon Davis and Dwayne Allen for Gonzo and Chandler, and haven't looked back. I was somewhat surprised to see that when I put it into the querier, I am alone in the 5 man combo of Matt Ryan, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Julio Jones, and Megatron...If everyone stays healthy, my litmus test is Week 7. If I can make it past that, I feel really good about the rest of the way. But that bye week will be a doozy. The contest has gotten more fun over the years as I've come to the realization this contest is about 20% smart selections, 80% dumb-### luck. Luck that your horses don't get injured, and 2nd dose of luck that they perform as expected, 3rd dose of luck that your playing studs pick up the slack on your critical bye weeks, and then of course to win it all you need a crazy finish the last 3 weeks.
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Mr. Soup Nazi
Footballguy
Fred Jackson, David Wilson, Justin Blackmon & Antonio Gates. I expect FJax & Gates to contribute down the line, but I'm kicking myself over Wilson and Blackmon.
I don't know if it is completely dead, but would like to have Blackmon @ $7 and Steve Smith @ $5 back. Hernandez's $23 could have been spent elsewhere - but hopefully I can last until he comes back. Though my roster only has 5 players in the $5-$14 range. Luck, Kendall Hunter and Turbin being the others.
Gawain
Footballguy
No points:Matt Flynn--Not sure how I didn't do something else here. That's what happens when you don't check back in the last two weeks I guess
Shane Vereen--If he ever gets healthy, the Pats will likely use him. Not holding my breath
Rashard Mendenhall--If I make it to week 5, he should get the job. Redman/Dwyer don't impress
LaMichael James--Has he even been active yet?
Jacoby Ford--Whoops
Mike Thomas--Double Whoops
Fred Davis--Even his big week 3 didn't count. Like the fact that he's on the upswing.
Prater--His time will come
Oakland D--Their time will not
Every week:
Spiller--Need to overcome his injury
Harvin--Super solid
Lloyd--Steady
M. Bennett--Everyone's favorite TE sleeper.
Like my uniqueness (no one has my top 3 RB's), but hate the fact that I didn't give this roster a once over before the season started. The 14 bucks or so of dead weight I have would have been nice somewhere else.
Team
sbuck143
Footballguy
Justin Blackmon is the only 'dead money' that I expected more out of at this point.Harry Douglas and Taiwan Jones are $2/$3 handcuffs that I haven't had place for me yet, but everyone else on my roster has picked up some slack and done some heavy lifting.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/101000.php
sbuck143
Footballguy
As a diehard Browns fan ---- I empathize with your pain. One thing Greg Little does do amazingly well - and this will be of absolutely no use to you - is some phenomenal downfield blocking. All 3 of T-Richardsons touchdowns this season are due in no small part to this. Especially his two TD runs.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Made it with .30 to spare 
It'd be great if Forte and FJax get back playing.
It'd be great if Forte and FJax get back playing.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Since he blocks this comparison isn't exactly right, but it's close. As near as I can tell, Greg Little is this guy:http://i.ytimg.com/vi/ozGNfNsnX6g/0.jpg
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Hrm. Don't seem to be able to insert the pic properly. Maybe someone who isn't dumb can help me.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
It's all on my work laptop and I don't plan on opening that again until Thursday morning, but I'll try to remember to take a look then.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
This board doesn't do in-thread pics. Just remove the img tags and post the url.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I haven't used Gabbert yet as my QB3 ($6) but I don't consider him dead money.
Kevin Smith at $12 looks like incredibly dead money
Those they are under the $5 threshold Taiwan Jones and Evan Royster look sketchy.
I'm in the Blackmon bunch as well $7 and I think that Ryan Broyles is a waste of $2. I think Harry Douglas will sneak in to my lineup a couple of times.
-QG
Kevin Smith at $12 looks like incredibly dead money
Those they are under the $5 threshold Taiwan Jones and Evan Royster look sketchy.
I'm in the Blackmon bunch as well $7 and I think that Ryan Broyles is a waste of $2. I think Harry Douglas will sneak in to my lineup a couple of times.
-QG
Saint
Footballguy
The higher cut lines make sense this year with the change in PPR settings for RBs (from 0.5 ppr to 1.0 ppr). Off the top of my head if we agree that diversification of roster size increases likelihood of higher scoring due to diversification in risk, then by increasing scoring valuables, it makes it that much more likely that a smaller roster gets decimated if a stud does poorly.
My 2 cents...
My 2 cents...
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
We have also had a few big names get injured early (% owned):
Stafford (12.2 %)
Bradshaw (2.9)
Forte (5.8)
F Jackson (11.7)
S Jackson (8.6)
Mathews (0.6)
Collie (4.5)
Garcon (13.8)
Jennings (5.4)
Maclin (5.8)
Nicks (3.3)
Hernandez (11.1)
Keller (3.5)
No one with huge ownership numbers, but it is going to effect the smaller teams more if one of their main guys is out. Throw in the duds that some other studs have had over the last couple weeks and it equals disaster for the smaller teams.
I see this trend continuing until most of the bye weeks are finished. After that, the smaller teams left will be the ones who picked guys who are healthy and performing. My prediction is that scores will go back to looking more like week one for weeks 9-13. Now the trick is getting your small roster to that point of the season.
Stafford (12.2 %)
Bradshaw (2.9)
Forte (5.8)
F Jackson (11.7)
S Jackson (8.6)
Mathews (0.6)
Collie (4.5)
Garcon (13.8)
Jennings (5.4)
Maclin (5.8)
Nicks (3.3)
Hernandez (11.1)
Keller (3.5)
No one with huge ownership numbers, but it is going to effect the smaller teams more if one of their main guys is out. Throw in the duds that some other studs have had over the last couple weeks and it equals disaster for the smaller teams.
I see this trend continuing until most of the bye weeks are finished. After that, the smaller teams left will be the ones who picked guys who are healthy and performing. My prediction is that scores will go back to looking more like week one for weeks 9-13. Now the trick is getting your small roster to that point of the season.
sbuck143
Footballguy
I expected higher cut lines, but they seem to be crazily higher this year. This can't be due solely to .5ppr increase in RB's. I dont have the data from last year, but weren't QB touchdowns worth 4 pts in years past instead of this years 6? I could see that plus the PPR for RB's getting close, but not entirely all of this huge increase. I am insanely curious to see what this does for the bye week scores. 115 used to be the safe zone those weeks.
sbuck143
Footballguy
Don't forget :Spiller likely out for a week or two could cause some ripplesand defensive injuries to Jets defense (Revis) and Redskins (Orakpo, Carriker) will not only hurt teams that selected those defenses but perhaps provide a bump to offensive skill players playing those defenses
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
If I had to make a guess....I'm thinking the cut line wont drop a lot in week 4 (150ish), but drop off fairly deep weeks 5-7 (between 120-130 points), then slowly increase each week 8-11 until we are back around 150 points.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Some other options...1. The herd is getting smarter.2. Stud pricing dropped.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Nope...scoring this year is identical except for RB receptions. I think the player valuations have more to do with it, people have more good players this year.
Saint
Footballguy
Here's what the scoring was from last year:Scoring:
Scoring will be calculated to two decimal places (no rounding).Player Scoring (QB, RB, WR, TE)
Passing TDs = 6 points
Interceptions Thrown = -1 points (NOW -2 points in 2012)
Rushing TD = 6 points
Receiving TD = 6 points
Passing Yardage = .05 points per yard
Rushing Yardage = .10 points per yard
Receiving Yardage = .10 points per yard
Receptions for RB = 0.5 points (NOW 1.0 points in 2012)
Receptions for WR = 1.0 points
Receptions for TE = 1.5 points
No points scored for 2 point conversions
Kicker Scoring (PK)
Field Goal Made (0-29 yards) = 3 points
Field Goal Made (30-39 yards) = 4 points
Field Goal Made (40-49 yards) = 5 points
Field Goal Made (50+ yards) = 6 points
Extra Point Made = 1 point
Def/ST Scoring (Def/ST)
Sack = 1 point
Interception = 2 points
Fumble Recovery = 2 points
Safety = 2 points
Defensive/ST TD = 6 points (Kickoff return, punt return, blocked FG return, blocked punt return, interception return, fumble recovery return, etc. Note: ALL fumble recoveries and non-offensive TDs will count)
*******************************************************************************************************************************
So the only real positive change I see is the 0.5 increase in RB PPR. The only other dynamic is if the TE scoring is increasing based on more usage of TE in the game.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Players that haven't scored for me:
Fred Jackson
Peyton Hillis
Taiwan Jones
Justin Blackmon
Donald Driver
Eddie Royal
Matt Prater
Kansas City Chiefs
The only big regret so far is Hillis - but I can't imagine he'll be a waste all season. Blackmon's been terrible, but I could see him picking up a bit.
Fred Jackson
Peyton Hillis
Taiwan Jones
Justin Blackmon
Donald Driver
Eddie Royal
Matt Prater
Kansas City Chiefs
The only big regret so far is Hillis - but I can't imagine he'll be a waste all season. Blackmon's been terrible, but I could see him picking up a bit.
rustycolts
Footballguy
I think its #2
Saint
Footballguy
Every week Starters:
[*]QB: Fitzpatrick ($11)
[*]TE: Rudolph ($11)
[*]PK: Hanson ($4) -- Seems to be money every year
Dead weight: (Meaning never used)
[*]QB: Freeman ($16) :X
[*]QB: Tannehill ($4)
[*]RB: Mendenhall ($4) - Bought for the long haul
[*]RB: Royster ($3)
[*]WR: Brown ($6) -- Not unexpected, I picked him up for the last half of the season
[*]WR: Jean ($3)
[*]WR: Broyles ($2)
[*]TE: Gates ($20) -- I still have hope here
[*]TE: Kendricks ($9) :X
[*]PK: Henery ($4)
[*]PK: Suisham ($3)
Usage: (Meaning I have used the players at least once to contribute to my score)
[*]QB: 1 of 3 used ($20 wasted)
[*]RB: 4 of 6 used ($7 wasted)
[*]WR: 8 of 11 used $11 wasted)
[*]TE: 1 of 3 used ($29 wasted)
[*]PK: 1 of 3 used ($7 wasted)
[*]TD: 3 of 3 used
[*]OVERALL: 18 of 29 used to date ($74 wasted to date)
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