yeah, the more I look into that, the more I dislike that deal for the Reds.
Latos is young and talented, but he's going to need to turn into a super star, top 10 type pitcher for 5-10 years for that deal to make sense. And I just don't see that. He's not all that durable, and while he strikes out guys at a decent clip, he's more a fly ball pitcher and in Cincy, that's not real beneficial.
Alonso is going to be a solid major league first basemen for years to come, and while his path may have been blocked, he alone should have brought a solid 1 or 2 type pitcher.
Volquez is a big question mark, but how quick are we to forget his dominance just 3 years back. Sure, since that time he's had TJ surgery and a rough transition, but that surgery alone can take 18-24 months to recover, and he has not lost any velocity since '08. Plus, he's just 28 and under a VERY reasonable contract. This is the kind of pitcher you want on your team, if he pans out, you get 15 wins at 1.8 million dollars. If he doesn't, well, he has no Lackeyian contract wrapped around his neck. Now he gets to move into an extreme pitchers park?
And then they trow in their 2010 first round pick in Grandal and one of their '09 first round picks in Boxberger, who both project to be near major league ready?
The trade makes sense if you are receiving a 24 year old Sabathia or Halladay, a guy you can pencil in for 200+ innings each year. Shelf life on pitchers is generally not all that great, look at guys like Peavy (who is just 30), Prior, Wood and Webb, so on and on and on. Arms are fragile and the strain put on them is unbelievable.