flapgreen
Footballguy
Mentioned a few times that Bostic could move outside as well. Canning Tucker for the right guy and getting rid of Conte would also be great starts. Wright is useless, too.
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***Official 2013 Chicago Bears Thread*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter 3nOut
- Start date
whitem0nkey
Footballguy
I exited about this, we just signed the best QB in bears history. it seems like half the bears fans dont like this. I do, we finally found a replacement for Sid Luckman, it took us a while since 1950 and I and happy with a jerk faced Cutler for the next couple of seasons.
The Tick
Footballguy
I'm happy with today, a little over what I was hoping we could get him for, but honestly rather have a quick signing showing lots of support that a drug out public battle for a mil per year or so.
Though I guess I'm a clueless bears fan because I think Peppers should go. I'm pretty sure it's actually a 10M cap hit, but it frees 8M up to try and get a player who still has an every game impact. DL guys were not signing for that much last year, and I think we could get a player who can be more effective then peppers for next year. I won't be pissed if they decide to keep him, I just don't see how you can sink 18M into a player who didn't show up on the stat sheet for multiple games. (insert Cutler joke here). Maybe better DL will fix him, but I just think he's lost enough of a step that the 8M savings could bring something better.
KCitons
Footballguy
I have a lot of mixed emotions about Cutler. Maybe I'm still pissed about the loss to the Packers, but I'm not sold on Cutler being a stud QB, that is going to lead us to the Super Bowl.
Anyone that has been a Bears fan for more than 20 years, understands how much this team has struggled to find a QB. But, I would point out that during those decades, it seemed like one out of every 4 or 5 QB's was a franchise QB. Today, it seems like the numbers are reversed. In the past 3 years, we have seen 3-4 Franchise QB's for every 1 QB bust that is drafted.
Cutler still has something to prove to me. If I'm not watching the Bears win games in the playoffs, I'd better be watching them win, at least one game a season, against the Packers.
Anyone that has been a Bears fan for more than 20 years, understands how much this team has struggled to find a QB. But, I would point out that during those decades, it seemed like one out of every 4 or 5 QB's was a franchise QB. Today, it seems like the numbers are reversed. In the past 3 years, we have seen 3-4 Franchise QB's for every 1 QB bust that is drafted.
Cutler still has something to prove to me. If I'm not watching the Bears win games in the playoffs, I'd better be watching them win, at least one game a season, against the Packers.
3nOut
Footballguy
KCitons
Footballguy
I am this year with McCown's win against the Packers.
But, let's not forget about Cutlers record against Green Bay. Who knows, maybe McCown would have won last weeks game.
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twistd
Footballguy
What I have heard mentioned a number of times is that Cutler is the best QB the Bears have had since Sid Luckman. That may very well be true. I think McMahon was a damn good QB, but that argument aside. If I had to have a QB for the next few years I don't think Cutler would even be in the top ten right now in the NFL. I would definitely take Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning and Newton ahead of him. I'd have to put Big Ben and Andrew Luck ahead of him. That is seven. I would probably take Matt Ryan, Kaep, and Russell Wilson. I think Ryan is better now. Kaep and Wilson are pretty good now with a boatload of potential. Romo vs. Cutler is close. I like Cutler better than Flacco. It is a sad statement about Chicago QBs when you say that Cutler is the best QB the Bears have had since Luckman, but he isn't even a top ten QB now.
KCitons
Footballguy
My other thought is this. If Trestman is a QB genius, then Cutler should be able to elevate his play beyond anything we have seen in past years. He will have the talent around him to accomplish it. If he continues to make mistakes that holds the team back going forward, then I believe McCown, or any number of other QB could accomplish an 8-8 to 10-6 season with this team.
When you factor in Cutlers durability, what are you really getting for your money. His time in Chicago has already proved that you need a quality backup if you hope to make it through the season.
When you factor in Cutlers durability, what are you really getting for your money. His time in Chicago has already proved that you need a quality backup if you hope to make it through the season.
RBM
Footballguy
flapgreen
Footballguy
What's the alternative? Do you think know putting McCown back out there and trying to draft the next great qb is a better alternative? Impossible to predict which qbs will be even a top 20 guy for the long haul. What if they put McCown back out there and we miss on the next pick? Another 5 years down the drain. Do you think McCown has what it takes to take them to a championship? How many years would it take his replacement to get to that level? It's a lot of years to wait on something that may not happen.
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twistd
Footballguy
I don't know about that. He may not be in the top 10 but he is just after that, I'd say top 12 anyway. I'd rather have Cutler than RGIII. I'd rather have Cutler than Rivers. I'd rather have Cutler than Stafford or Palmer or Dalton or Bradford or Eli Manning or Flacco or Tannehill. As I said I think it is close between him and Romo.
twistd
Footballguy
I'm not saying he didn't get market value. Market value for QBs doesn't make sense to me. Why should Flacco get more than Brees? But he did. Cutler could have gotten $20 million a year if he was a free agent. You know that the Vikings or the Raiders or the Browns or one of those teams looking to draft a QB would have stepped up and given him that money if the Bears had let him walk. So getting him for $17 million is probably a little below market value for him. Valuewise it doesn't make sense to me that Brees and Rodgers get $20 million a year and so does Flacco. To me Rodgers and Brees should be getting a lot more than Flacco, Cutler, or Romo, but they aren't. And then you see that Russell Wilson is getting $600k a year. It is way out of whack.
KCitons
Footballguy
I get what you are saying. Can I say with certainty that McCown would lead the Bears to a championship? No. But, I can't say that Cutler will either.
I will agree that Cutler is marginally better than McCown in certain areas, like arm strength. But, I could also make the argument that McCown is better in certain areas, like game management.
To answer your question of finding the next great QB, this is where I refer to Trestman. If he is a QB guru, then he should be able to squeeze more out of QB's than most other head coaches. Few would argue that McCown showed more this season than he has with other teams. This leads me to think that Cutler should be lighting things up and should be in the top 8 of QB's. But, he hasn't so far. When comparing McCown and Cutler, it looks like McCown has made a larger improvement under Trestman.
Look around the league. For every Gabbert and Ponder, there is a Kaep, Wilson, Luck, RG3, Foles, and possibly even Glennon. We don't know what's going to happen with some of those guys, but under a QB whisperer like Trestman, you would think they could excel. There are a lot of young QB's coming out this year and next. At the very least, they could match the strong arm, poor decisions of Cutler.
With all this said, I have no choice but to trust that Trestman and Emery are signing Cutler because they believe they can improve Cutler's game over any other option available. If they believe his current level of play is good enough to win a championship, then I have my doubts. I will withhold judgement until after the 2014 season. But, the GM and HC have been wrong on other players, so, I'm skeptical on this one.
flapgreen
Footballguy
Nothing wrong with questioning it after years of inconsistency. Waiting until after the 2014 season to make an accurate judgement is probably the best way to do it but they have to go with what they have right now. Franchising qbs isn't really a viable option these days due to the cap hit. Cutler, and partially McCown, led the them to be the 2nd highest scoring team in the league. Doing that in the first season with a new system is proof enough to me. I'd rather gamble on Trestman getting to a guy with Cutler's talent than hoping he can mold the next guy down the line. McCown played great but he isn't the guy to lead us for the next few years IMO.
babydemon90
Footballguy
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Great post. I must have read Cutler is a top-10 QB 5-6x today in the pool. Just because he looks the part and throws hard I guess, it's sickening.
3nOut
Footballguy
Ok, other then QBs that are under contract right now, who would you replace Cutler with? Its not fair to say you would rather have another QB from another team. Thats not realistic. Cutler is the best option available unless you want to risk starting a rookie who may r may not pan out. If not, then what? Draft another QB next year again or give the rookie a second chance? How many years of experimentation can we afford right now? By the time we find someone who may work out our receivers will be old and will need to be replaced. Or maybe the Bears should have waited until the new NFL year begins (in March?) to see if MCCown was still interested in even playing football any more. This was a franchise record setting year for the Bears offense. Cutler was the least of our problems.
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
If you cut Peppers, you take a cap hit of $8M (dead space). So you lose your best pass rusher AND have a huge cap hit....that would be dumb IMO. Again, DL, like OL, requires others to do their job. The DTs next to Peppers were horrible (yes, Wooten himself who everyone here loves was horrible as a DT....he does not have the body to be a DT).The Tick said:
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
So you think it is a great post because of his opinion? Who said Wilson or Kaep or Cam are better than Cutler? I have seen all of those QBs struggle mightily in games. WIlson is lucky to play with one of the best Ds in the league and one of the best running games. He is blah at best and will get exposed one of these years when the D and/or running game falls. Kaep has already shown this year that he is not that great. Again, he plays with an awesome D and a great running game; but he has no ability to read a D and it was clear this year if you watched Kaep play.
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
McCown had 3 great games - because he played the 3 worst Ds in the league (Wash; Minny; Dallas). He struggled against the Rams (who are not great on D but still better). Amazing how much ignorance exists in this world.
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
What 3 or 4 franchise QBs for every one bust are you talking about? Christian Ponder? RG3? Andrew Luck? Kaepernick? Russel Wilson? Cam Newton? Andy Dalton? Brandon Weeden? Ryan Tannehill? EJ Manuel? Cam Newton? Stafford? Bradford? - which one has won a SB? Oh that's right....none. And Kaep, Wilson, Cam and Dalton all play on teams that have top 10 defenses.
And yet, Dalton has never won a playoff game; Wilson won one because the opposing QB got hurt (when the Seahawks were down 21-0); the rest except Kaep have not won a single playoff game. And again, Kaep has got exposed this year now that teams have film on the gimmick they ran.
Andrew Luck got steam rolled by the Rams and the Cards, didn't he? Or are we not allowed to bring up one or two games if the Cutler-haters want to bring up one or two of his games this year?
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ryno1980
Footballguy
I'm behind cutler but lucks season was very good considering what he had to work with. I'd rather have jay than kaepernick but CK did improve late in season.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
He made good points that didn't seem all too bias. He made a pretty clear statement on Cutler vs McCown. If you give and take what each player did well, McCown was as least Cutler's equal this season. He made a pretty clear statement on the coach who is considered a "QB guru." If he is a guru then prove it since you're the so called expert on the position.
Who's to say the QBs he named are better? For one, none of them are 30. That's a nice start if you plan on building a consistent title contender. Most of those guys listed are on cheap rookie contracts that allow their respected teams to splurge elsewhere. #### can hit the fan in a few years when it's time to pay Wilson or Foles ect.. too, but their teams don't have to worry about that anytime soon while they compete for a championship. For two, most use different QB or passer ratings to compare a QB performance from player to player, game to game or year to year. Those stats obviously don't take in consideration all of the intangibles(like arm strength) but strictly grades a QB on nothing other than passing results. They all compute that Russel Wilson is better than Cutler. They all say 2012 RG3 is better than Cutler. They all say Foles had a historic year... and is better than Jay Cutler. They also say Kaep and Luck are at least on par with Cutler at ages where a jump in production is possible, especially if they played for a "QB guru" like KCitons alluded to. Ditto for Cam even though he didn't even mention him. As for Glennon, he was a rookie that came in cold mid-season and did well. Had he played for a "Qb guru" he could arguably had did what Jay Cutler did. Mind you, Glennon is 24 and cost 120m less than Cutler now. I'll take take Glennon, 120m and Lovie Smith over the next few years over Cutler, his contract and Tresmen FWIW. Just to throw salt, vets like Vick and Schaub play on Cutler's level according to the data. They could be had for cheap while you find a young guy.
Your post seems like you don't see Cutler as a guy that can overcome a weak Def or running game. I agree. So did KCitons. Therefore I have to say even you agree he wasn't worth locking up for 7 years if he isn't that guy.
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twistd
Footballguy
How can the cap hit of $16.2 million be too much to take but a contract that pays an average of $17 million a year be cheaper? Because they play fast and loose with the contract structure. At some point you have to take the cap hit. I would have preferred to tag him and see if he can improve and stay healthy. Where is the team if he continues to miss four or five games a year? Where is the team if he continues to throw stupid interceptions? If two years from now the Bears determine that Cutler is just not the guy they are stuck with this contract that badly handcuffs them. I hope that does not occur. I hope Cutler plays 16 games a year for the next five seasons. I hope that Cutler wins three or four Super Bowls. But it worries me.
twistd
Footballguy
My point is that it is a sad statement on the QBs that the Bears have had historically that the best guy of the last 60 years might not even be in the top ten now. I'm not saying that they had better alternatives. I do think I would have preferred to see them franchise Cutler. I would like to see if Trestman can get Cutler to improve his decision making. I'd like to see if Cutler can stay on the field for an entire season. If Cutler misses another five or six games next year you could decide that you would be better off drafting a QB and going that direction. Now you are stuck with Cutler for the foreseeable future. With this huge contract and all the guaranteed money if you decided to move on from Cutler the cap hit would be crippling.
KCitons
Footballguy
When comparing other young QB's to Cutler, not every one of them is going to be able to win a championship. There aren't enough trophies to go around. But, you can look at all the young QB's that are playing in the playoffs.
Kaep, Wilson, Cam, Dalton, Luck and Foles. It took a Brady, Manning, Brees, and a Rodgers to make it into the playoffs. Cutler will need to elevate his game to be in the same conversation as these guys. I'm not sure he has it in him. At this point, the only similarity between him and those guys, is his salary.
The one anomaly was Alex Smith. I would rather have Cutler, then Smith.
There are a lot of good young QB's coming out of college. More colleges are running pro style offenses and these kids are much more prepared coming in. There are still the duds like Gabbert. But, this is where the GM and coach should be earning their money. Are they admitting that they can't find the next Kaep, Wilson, or Foles and therefor they are going to settle for Cutler?
Kaep, Wilson, Cam, Dalton, Luck and Foles. It took a Brady, Manning, Brees, and a Rodgers to make it into the playoffs. Cutler will need to elevate his game to be in the same conversation as these guys. I'm not sure he has it in him. At this point, the only similarity between him and those guys, is his salary.
The one anomaly was Alex Smith. I would rather have Cutler, then Smith.
There are a lot of good young QB's coming out of college. More colleges are running pro style offenses and these kids are much more prepared coming in. There are still the duds like Gabbert. But, this is where the GM and coach should be earning their money. Are they admitting that they can't find the next Kaep, Wilson, or Foles and therefor they are going to settle for Cutler?
What's funny is that everyone (I assume) loves our offense. We have a great offensive minded coach. And we're still questioning his judgement. If Trestman wanted McCown, he could have had McCown. If he wanted to draft someone, we could have made that happen. In fact, the hardest thing to do would have been to re-sign Jay, and that's what he did. If the mind behind the #2 scoring offense in the league is thrilled to have Jay back, how is this being questioned? Be excited, move on, we get to draft some defensive players in May while having consistency at the QB/OC position
KCitons
Footballguy
I get what you are trying to say. I won't speak for others, but my argument for not signing Cutler, was so we could spend money to fix other areas. If Trestman's strength is QB, then he should be able to get a hundred dollars worth of play out of a fifty dollar QB. On the other hand, this defense needs help and it may take spending money on better talent to overcome the coaching deficiencies.
Statcruncher
Footballguy
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Statcruncher
Footballguy
Also Matt Forte tweeted that Mills is having surgery today.
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twistd
Footballguy
The one thing that bothers me about this for 2014 is by signing Cutler to a long term contract, instead of the franchise tag, you have taken $6.5 million off of the table that could have been used to sign free agents to shore up this defense this year. However, in 2015-2018 it is more cap friendly, and very economical, until 2019 when it starts to go back up. Perhaps they decided to take the hit in year one to allow for more flexibility later in the contract. It is an interesting approach.
Statcruncher
Footballguy
I somewhat agree with what you're saying about the cap hit, but obviously Emery feels that the Bears are better equipped to eat cap now rather than later. I'm guessing that means he's got a plan to fix the D without big name FA's, instead focusing on cheap stopgap FA's and D heavy drafts. To be honest, I'm good with that as long as there are more Jeffery/Long/Mills/Slauson additions vs. McClellin/Hardin adds.
That contract IMO appears to be very friendly to Jay and the Chicago Bears and unlike most contracts today, there is a very good possibility that it goes all 7 years. Jay gets paid big money with absolute security for the first 3 years. For the 4 final years the Bears have the luxury of being able to keep him at what will be below market value, or cutting him at will with zero cap repercussions. The only way I see this contract turning out bad for the Bears is if Cutler completely tanks or can't stay healthy. I think Jay did the Bears a real solid by signing this.
That contract IMO appears to be very friendly to Jay and the Chicago Bears and unlike most contracts today, there is a very good possibility that it goes all 7 years. Jay gets paid big money with absolute security for the first 3 years. For the 4 final years the Bears have the luxury of being able to keep him at what will be below market value, or cutting him at will with zero cap repercussions. The only way I see this contract turning out bad for the Bears is if Cutler completely tanks or can't stay healthy. I think Jay did the Bears a real solid by signing this.
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The Tick
Footballguy
If this is really a 22M cap hit this year, I can't freaking believe it. I was ok, with 17-18M cap hit, but if they are taking a 22???? HOW is that a good contract. Maybe we don't exactly see how it's going to hit the cap yet, they are talking about it on the radio now, and they aren't exactly sure how it will hit, but that seems to be a horrible plan.twistd said:
RBM
Footballguy
Bottom line for me, while definitely thinking we overpaid, I get it. At this point, where our offense is, I did not want to have to start over at QB. But I do have to say that the pressure is on big time now. Anything less than a career year out of Cutler with the weapons and the paycheck, will be extremely disappointing.
And there is part of me that wonders if a guy like Matt Schaub could do just what Cutler will, at half the price.
And there is part of me that wonders if a guy like Matt Schaub could do just what Cutler will, at half the price.
Statcruncher
Footballguy
If these details are correct and the 22m in 2014 is base salary, it will be a 22m cap hit in 2014. Like I said, Emery must obviously has a plan that makes him think they can eat extra cap in 2014. You've got to eat it sometime, IMO better up front than pushing it off until later like Peppers. I think everyone knew Peppers wasn't going to see the end of his contract, yet while his locker will be empty and he's long gone Chicago will still be eating a 10m cap hit for him.
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
You seem to be having a real problem looking past next year. The idea of this contract is to win a SB by 2018.
Say these are the per year cap numbers for Cutler's contract. While 2014 hurts, 2015-18 are great numbers and allows the team to position themselves in a way to keep Marshall and Jeffery.
Now this regime needs to prove that it can draft effectively for the defensive side of the ball.
The Tick
Footballguy
Yeah, I do get that, and it's great this contract will have no dead money after 3 years, but I just don't understand how he can rebuild a non-existent defense with that little cap. Earlier in the year he was talking about not wanting to franchise cutler because of the cap hit, and talking about a cap friendly deal.
I guess it's right that the hits go down after this and 15, 16, 12, 13 are really good numbers for a starting QB, and that will give us room to move around.
This tells me don't expect much progress on D, maybe one FA signing, and then we are getting draft picks to build up players, then maybe a big signing or two the year after to really make a push.
The Tick
Footballguy
Yeah, I've come to that realization in my next post... Still not sure if I like it, but I kinda get it.
Statcruncher
Footballguy
Cutler's deal averages 18m per year for 7 years, I have little doubt that in 3 to 4 years his contract will be considered below market value as long as he performs as a top 15 QB. As for a career year, Cutler was well on his way to posting career numbers in a new system before injuries sidelined him. I can't help but think more time in the same system will help.
And you do realize that Schaub's contract averages 13.2m per year and he was benched multiple games for poor play right? Schaub has a bigger cap hit than Cutler in 2015 (17m) and 2016 (19m), and he still has over 10m in dead money left on his contract if the Texans decide to cut him after this year's utter failure.
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RBM
Footballguy
Cutler has missed 13 games in the last 4 years. That factors in man.
And if Schaub were to get cut we'd be signing him to a NEW deal. His current deal is irrelevant in this conversation. And I wouldn't be so quick to define him by that awful 2-3 game stretch this year. I have a feeling under Trestman there would be no difference between him and Jay.
The Tick
Footballguy
OK, supposedly the Score has the "official" cap hits on cutler's contract, and they don't match up with what PFT talked about. They are acknowledging that, but say this is a good source they have gotten a lot of stuff from before. They say there is signing bonus that pro-rates over the first 5 years and then those last two years are pretty much just options and he could be cut for nothing.
2014: 11.8M
2015: 15.3M
2016: 16.8M
2017: 18.3M
2018: 18.8M
2019: 22M
2020: 23M
2014: 11.8M
2015: 15.3M
2016: 16.8M
2017: 18.3M
2018: 18.8M
2019: 22M
2020: 23M
Statcruncher
Footballguy
Statcruncher
Footballguy
I don't know how accurate Spotrac is on breaking new contract details but the numbers they show corroborate with the previous link I posted. Over the cap has them as well.
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