So this game is going to be a good benchmark for this team on both the offense and defensive sides of the ball.
The Colts offense all comes down to Luck. They have 3 solid WRs but no stars. Hilton is the deep guy Wayne and Nicks work underneath mostly. They use Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw in the running game. Neither is scary. Richardson looks sluggish and doesn't seem to have anything in the way of burst. He does run hard and will move the pile on occasion. OK hands, but lack of speed and moves mean he's not any more than an outlet as a receiver. Bradshaw is a bit better in this area and will get more time on 3rd downs and if they're throwing (2 min, trailing etc). No idea if this is true or not but Richardson runs like a guy who's 20 pounds too heavy.
The OL for the Colts has some issues. The Ts are solid but the middle 3 are below average and had some assignment confusion early in the DEN game. There was a Nnamdi/Kurt moment complete with pointing where the C (Shipley) and Bradshaw both picked up the same man and let Ware clean through the middle for a sack. There were a few others as well, but they did seem to decrease as the game went on. Still, that's an area I think they should target rush wise.
They shouldn't be able to run on us at all, they seem to be trying for a power running game, lots of inside pull & lead plays from OGs but they don't get much movement. They were behind, but were completely one dimensional against Denver, something like 10 runs to 53 pass attempts.
Luck is as good as advertised. Accurate, strong arm, can make every throw. He's aggressive with the ball and will throw into tight spaces, resulting in two picks off tips/rebounds last week. Overall in his career that hasn't been an issue though. Not as a passer but as a pocket presence he reminded me of McNabb. Big, strong guy who can shrug off sacks, good speed for a QB and athletic, he can make plays as a runner. He's basically all they have on O but he's so good they're still tough to handle.
Coverage discipline will be key, can't afford any breakdowns this week. This will be a game where we see how much difference Jenkins makes.
On D, their DL isn't great, the RE #90 (Cory Redding) made a few solid plays, but their NT gets moved a lot and spends too much time on the ground. They don't have much pass rush without Mathis, last years 1st rnd pick #92, Werner looked like just a guy. No explosiveness that I saw and didn't seem to be a power rusher either. Made a couple of hustle play down the line against the run but nothing spectacular.
Their LBs, Jackson is like Ryans, he's good v. the run but can be targeted in coverage. Gave up a big play to Thomas last week in man coverage. The other ILB, #50, Freeman gave up a couple of plays in coverage as well but was actually in good position, but it's Peyton Manning, what do you do?
Vontae Davis is a shutdown man corner. Don't remember a completion on him, if there was it wasn't significant. Almost had a pick on an underthrown deep ball. The other CB, Toller is inconsistent, gave up some plays both short and deep but not so many you couldn't live with it. Landry at S is a weakness in man coverage, he also gave up a long TD.
They play single high S man coverage about 3/4 of the time, 2 man under (2 deep S over man coverage) straight Cover 2 and a bit of Cover 3 as well. Overall this will be a day for TEs and RBs to make plays but I expect a fairly quiet outing for the WRs. If we can't pass protect in this game, I think we'll be in trouble over the next few games.
Overall, I don't have a great feeling due to the OL issues and Foles performance last week, and the Colts are very tough at home. On paper, I think we should win, but I'm picking Colts 27-24.
Edit: So Freeman (ILB) is out and a couple of other OL/DL are Questionable.
Oh, and I might have been wrong about the Jags defense. Wow.