Official 2014 Preakness thread (1 Viewer)

[Judge Smails]

Done handicapping:

1) California Chrome

2) Kid Cruz

3) Right on Curlin

Not going to F it up like I did in the Derby. Going Friday and betting advanced play.

$200 exacta CC to Kid Cruz (20-1). $50 tri's CC/KC and ROC. $10 tri CCKC/Ria Antonia. That's $310. Then play some small supers

I think all of the speed dies, it's just a matter of how much. Keep in mind that by the stretch call California Chrome has taken the lead anywhere from 3 1/2-5 lengths in every race. I think Social Inclusion, Bayern, Pablo del Monte, General ARod, Ring Weekend and Dynamic Impact will all be done by the top of the lane. Social Inclusion is by far the best of that bunch so he'll fight on a little bit, but he'll fade too IMO. Kid Cruz is the only true closer. In good form, had 98 and 99 Beyer's, win over the track, and gets a perfect pace scenario. He'll be 20+ lengths back but will be flying. Right on Curlin can close a little, though most of his best races are up front. He did close in the Derby, and drawing the outside has no choice to wait. Rosario good with closers. He will get first jump on Kid Cruz chasing CC, it's just a matter of timing. Only other wild flier is Ria Antonia. Really don't like her, but she's a really inconsistent horse. Some days she can close, and close very well. See BC Juvenile Fillies. Amoss takes over from Baffert. I'll only toy with her at the bottom of tri's and Super's. She could finish 3rd or 4th or run last. Smaller plays only.

That's my play. Don't think you can make any money betting Social Inclusion if you like California Chrome.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I can't help with wagering, but my buddy nailed a chick in a port-a-potty at the Preakness 10 years back. Preakness gets crazy.

 

[elguapo07]

Judge you're no slouch and I agree with you on Kid Cruz but I think Gen ARod merits consideration as well and I wouldn't write off Social Inclusion as I think he's very very dangerous. Love your handicapping posts as you certainly know your stuff.

fc42, perhaps your buddies story warrants its own thread.

 

[General Malaise]

Black Eyed Susan - Boxing 3/5/8 in exacta and tris. GLA

 

[Timmypg]

What do you think the exacta or tri will pay if CC wins?

Done handicapping:

1) California Chrome

2) Kid Cruz

3) Right on Curlin

Not going to F it up like I did in the Derby. Going Friday and betting advanced play.

$200 exacta CC to Kid Cruz (20-1). $50 tri's CC/KC and ROC. $10 tri CCKC/Ria Antonia. That's $310. Then play some small supers

I think all of the speed dies, it's just a matter of how much. Keep in mind that by the stretch call California Chrome has taken the lead anywhere from 3 1/2-5 lengths in every race. I think Social Inclusion, Bayern, Pablo del Monte, General ARod, Ring Weekend and Dynamic Impact will all be done by the top of the lane. Social Inclusion is by far the best of that bunch so he'll fight on a little bit, but he'll fade too IMO. Kid Cruz is the only true closer. In good form, had 98 and 99 Beyer's, win over the track, and gets a perfect pace scenario. He'll be 20+ lengths back but will be flying. Right on Curlin can close a little, though most of his best races are up front. He did close in the Derby, and drawing the outside has no choice to wait. Rosario good with closers. He will get first jump on Kid Cruz chasing CC, it's just a matter of timing. Only other wild flier is Ria Antonia. Really don't like her, but she's a really inconsistent horse. Some days she can close, and close very well. See BC Juvenile Fillies. Amoss takes over from Baffert. I'll only toy with her at the bottom of tri's and Super's. She could finish 3rd or 4th or run last. Smaller plays only.

That's my play. Don't think you can make any money betting Social Inclusion if you like California Chrome.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

CC is going to be hard to beat.

 

[chet]

Judge you're no slouch and I agree with you on Kid Cruz but I think Gen ARod merits consideration as well and I wouldn't write off Social Inclusion as I think he's very very dangerous. Love your handicapping posts as you certainly know your stuff.

fc42, perhaps your buddies story warrants its own thread.

General a Rod drew the 2-hole and generally doesn't like the inside. Plus Pimlico has tighter turns so being in the 1 or 2 slot can be tough.

 

[BRONG]

Judge you're no slouch and I agree with you on Kid Cruz but I think Gen ARod merits consideration as well and I wouldn't write off Social Inclusion as I think he's very very dangerous. Love your handicapping posts as you certainly know your stuff.

fc42, perhaps your buddies story warrants its own thread.

General a Rod drew the 2-hole and generally doesn't like the inside. Plus Pimlico has tighter turns so being in the 1 or 2 slot can be tough.

 

[chet]

Judge you're no slouch and I agree with you on Kid Cruz but I think Gen ARod merits consideration as well and I wouldn't write off Social Inclusion as I think he's very very dangerous. Love your handicapping posts as you certainly know your stuff.

fc42, perhaps your buddies story warrants its own thread.

General a Rod drew the 2-hole and generally doesn't like the inside. Plus Pimlico has tighter turns so being in the 1 or 2 slot can be tough.

The owners believe the turns are tighter.

 

[optionmaven]

nobody concerned about cough/cold CC has? Any info on workouts this week? I'm looking for a way to beat the 3/5 favorite? Lots of favorites were hittin today across all tracks. Personally I think he wins again but loses in the belmont. Field seems weak and he(CC) ignoring the cough cold stories, wins again. Will we break even or make money with a CC/All exacta, CC/ALL/All tri?

 

[BRONG]

nobody concerned about cough/cold CC has? Any info on workouts this week? I'm looking for a way to beat the 3/5 favorite? Lots of favorites were hittin today across all tracks. Personally I think he wins again but loses in the belmont. Field seems weak and he(CC) ignoring the cough cold stories, wins again. Will we break even or make money with a CC/All exacta, CC/ALL/All tri?

It's a small blister, not a cold, and it's nothing. He coughed once and social media ran with it. Non-issue. He had it around Derby time, too.

 

[BRONG]

Judge you're no slouch and I agree with you on Kid Cruz but I think Gen ARod merits consideration as well and I wouldn't write off Social Inclusion as I think he's very very dangerous. Love your handicapping posts as you certainly know your stuff.

fc42, perhaps your buddies story warrants its own thread.

General a Rod drew the 2-hole and generally doesn't like the inside. Plus Pimlico has tighter turns so being in the 1 or 2 slot can be tough.

The owners believe the turns are tighter.

HTH

 

[Wild Young Billy]

Anyone thinking about Ria Antonia with Borel on board? Sleeper? I see Smails may throw some $$ there, anyone else?

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I'm on a family vacation so no serious capping from me

Just $5 exactas CC to A Rod and Kid Cruz for S&G's

 

[BRONG]

Anyone thinking about Ria Antonia with Borel on board? Sleeper?

I think the nutty owner and his ego are calling this shot due to one thing; the slow Derby time. Untapable is the filly that could've won this but it's a good decision by Asmussen to keep her out.

And Borel means nothing. His left turn at the Derby was comical; worst ride of the day. But look, he got to the rail and fast...and it's his namesake! Idiot.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Speaking of post positions, this chart indicates dirt routes can be tricky for outer posts:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/statsByPPMeetPDFDownload.cfm?trackID=PIM&beginDate=2014-04-03

 

[southeastjerome]

Race 5: Exacta Box 2, 6

Race 6: Tri Box: 4, 7, 11, 12

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Race 5: Exacta Box 2, 6

Race 6: Tri Box: 4, 7, 11, 12

i'll shadow you on the exacta box, let's do this.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Race 5: Exacta Box 2, 6

Race 6: Tri Box: 4, 7, 11, 12

by the way i know you killed the derby, who are your top 4 horses for the Preakness?

 

[Wild Young Billy]

Race 5: Exacta Box 2, 6

Race 6: Tri Box: 4, 7, 11, 12

by the way i know you killed the derby, who are your top 4 horses for the Preakness?

 

[Timmay]

This is what I went with for the Preakness.

$5 Ex wheel: 3 with 1, 2, 7

$3 Tri wheel: 3 with 1, 2, 5, 7 with 1, 2, 5, 7, 10

 

[ILUVBEER99]

I went with the below trifecta. Even if i win the tri i'll lose money if CC wins. Had to include him for insurance though.

3,5,8/

1,3,5,7,8,10/

1,3,5,7,8,10

 

[Raider Nation]

Large bet on CC to win at -180?

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Large bet on CC to win at -180?

Looking at other huge Preakness favorites in the past few years isn't pretty, for whatever reason they don't win. Also CC had a slow winning time at the Derby.

He is clearly the favorite and -180 is very good odds for you relative to the line i'm seeing, but it scares me when everybody is on the same horse calling him a "lock".

 

[southeastjerome]

Race 5: Exacta Box 2, 6

Race 6: Tri Box: 4, 7, 11, 12

by the way i know you killed the derby, who are your top 4 horses for the Preakness?

Boxing exactas and tri's with:

(3) Chrome

(1) Dynamic Impact

(7) Kid Cruz

If I were to add a 4th, it would be (8) Social Inclusion.

Fair warning, every time I post my picks here, I lose!

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Race 5: Exacta Box 2, 6

Race 6: Tri Box: 4, 7, 11, 12

by the way i know you killed the derby, who are your top 4 horses for the Preakness?

Boxing exactas and tri's with:

(3) Chrome

(1) Dynamic Impact

(7) Kid Cruz

If I were to add a 4th, it would be (8) Social Inclusion.

Fair warning, every time I post my picks here, I lose!

ok, good. i have all of them in my 2nd/3rd place parts of my wheel. Hoping Social Inclusion or Bayern wins otherwise trifecta's will pay garbage if CC wins.

 

[chet]

Dynamic Inclusion and Ride on Curlin can win.

 

[BRONG]

I like a 3,5,9 Exacta Box in the 6th at Santa Anita.

I also like an 8-1 shot quite a bit in the 11th at Santa Anita -- the #7, Presiding Justice.

Another horse at a decent price is Asparagus at 6 - 1 (in the 10th at Santa Anita, #11). I think we can all agree we like asparagus.

 

[chet]

Michael Phelps just bragged about hitting a tri in a five horse race.

 

[chet]

I like the 7 and 10 horses in the 11th at Pimlico. Good prices.

 

[chet]

I like a 3,5,9 Exacta Box in the 6th at Santa Anita.

I also like an 8-1 shot quite a bit in the 11th at Santa Anita -- the #7, Presiding Justice.

Another horse at a decent price is Asparagus at 6 - 1 (in the 10th at Santa Anita, #11). I think we can all agree we like asparagus.

Result?

 

[ILUVBEER99]

If CC wins it will ruin all of the bets, there will be no money to win. i put him in my trifecta as insurance but really hoping he doesn't get 1st so we can get some good payouts.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Large bet on CC to win at -180?

@DRFGrening: California Chrome is 2-5 and will likely stay there or be 3-5 at post time. In last 31 years, odds-on faves in Preakness are 2 for 8.

I think he wins though FWIW : shrug:

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I like a 3,5,9 Exacta Box in the 6th at Santa Anita.

I also like an 8-1 shot quite a bit in the 11th at Santa Anita -- the #7, Presiding Justice.

Another horse at a decent price is Asparagus at 6 - 1 (in the 10th at Santa Anita, #11). I think we can all agree we like asparagus.

Result?

In on race 10 and 11 win bets

 

[Dan Lambskin]

If CC wins it will ruin all of the bets, there will be no money to win. i put him in my trifecta as insurance but really hoping he doesn't get 1st so we can get some good payouts.

Depends on who comes in 2nd and 3rd...decent payouts still possible

 

[ILUVBEER99]

If CC wins it will ruin all of the bets, there will be no money to win. i put him in my trifecta as insurance but really hoping he doesn't get 1st so we can get some good payouts.

Depends on who comes in 2nd and 3rd...decent payouts still possible

yeah but it will severely limit upside. in a small field a lot will be keying CC on top. if he doesn't get 1st it will be huge for payouts.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Dynamic Inclusion and Ride on Curlin can win.

I'm rolling with Social Impact.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Bo Derek at 57? Riders up!

 

[Judge Smails]

Race 5: Exacta Box 2, 6

Race 6: Tri Box: 4, 7, 11, 12

by the way i know you killed the derby, who are your top 4 horses for the Preakness?

Boxing exactas and tri's with:

(3) Chrome

(1) Dynamic Impact

(7) Kid Cruz

If I were to add a 4th, it would be (8) Social Inclusion.

Fair warning, every time I post my picks here, I lose!

Won $1900 betting a $20 exacta and $10 tri with a 3-5 favorite on top at SA yesterday (unbelievable) so went back and played a little more on this race. I have$10 tri's 3 - 1/7 as well and have $5 tri's Chrome to all (except Ride on Curlin, $50 tri there) to Kid Cruz. Lots of tri's/supers. Small Kid Cruz tri's/supers on top. What I basically need is Chrome to blow the field away at the top of the lane, speed dies, Kid Cruz rallies to finish 2nd (hopefully) or 3rd (still good score). Good luck everyone!

 

[Timmay]

Bo Derek at 57? Riders up!

 

[Officer Pete Malloy]

There we go.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Too bad General A Rod couldn't get up for 3rd there

 

[Timmay]

Great run by CC. Looked just as good as in the derby.

The 3 derby horses and Social Inclusion looked like they were in a class all their own.

 

[Raider Nation]

Too bad General A Rod couldn't get up for 3rd there

General ARod would have won that race under the old PED rules.

 

[Judge Smails]

3 most talented horses ran 1-3. Social Inclusion actually ran very well after being so washing and fractious, then getting outbroke by CC. My whole race flow went out the window when Social Inclusion wasn't flying on the lead. Oh well. I tried for a price.

I must say, California Chrome is a great story and if he wins the Triple Crown I'll be cheering. I will be betting heavily against him though. He's going to be life and death down the lane at a mile and a half.

Hope somebody had it!

 

[mquinnjr]

I don't know much about horse racing in general, so I'm asking. With two legs of the triple crown down, is it worth it/likely/no chance at all that California Chrome would be scratched from the Belmont to avoid injury, etc. and just be sent right to stud and cash in?

 

[Brady Marino]

I don't know much about horse racing in general, so I'm asking. With two legs of the triple crown down, is it worth it/likely/no chance at all that California Chrome would be scratched from the Belmont to avoid injury, etc. and just be sent right to stud and cash in?

Unless they discover an injury afterwards, zero chance.

 

[pecorino]

I imagine lots of folks won bets but lost money. Belmont will be super interesting now with the triple crown talk but I'll be just as interested in the betting lines because I think CC will have a tough time at that length. Maybe more betting value in two weeks.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

I imagine lots of folks won bets but lost money. Belmont will be super interesting now with the triple crown talk but I'll be just as interested in the betting lines because I think CC will have a tough time at that length. Maybe more betting value in two weeks.

a ton did. everyone i know lost their tri bets, and exactas didn't pay anything either. So some people won a little but most everyone else lost.

 

[BRONG]

We are 3 for 3 in the pick 6 at SA, with a $33 horse, a $13 horse and an $11 horse.

And I have to go pick up cosjobs instead. Christ.

Got 1, 5, 7 in the next leg. Then the 1 and 11 in the 5th leg.

But doubt we get to the last leg...