***Official 2014 World Cup Thread*** (1 Viewer)

[The Gator]

Putting a team at 90+% to advance is foolish.

Are you saying in this group or generally? Seems like Argentina's gotta be way more than a 90% chance of advancing.

Sorry, I should have qualified it with in this group in particular.Yes, if a team has a very weak group, sure they would be 90+, hell closer to 95% to advance. Just look at CL draws.

But, in my eyes, Ghana has just as much chance to advance as Portugal or the U.S. does. If Ghana wins the first game on a dodgy pk, can you not see them advancing? And Germany is certainly not invincible as a side. They are solid and deep, but this is not a club team, it's a national team. Guys don't always click right off the bat and training as a side is limited.

My first inclination is that Ghana and Germany go through. I think Portugal has been living off their reputation for awhile. They did have a nice result at Euro 2012, but they've almost missed the last 2 World Cups.

I think it's natural to think of them as a European power, but they're really not. I think they're a bit better than the US on paper, but I think they're certainly beatable. Of the three group stage opponents, I view them as the worst. No shtick, Gator.

They haven't been a true Euro power in a while, they are just better than USA/Ghana. Everyone clamors for Messi to "take his team on his back" in order to be the GOAT. I think we see that from Cristiano next summer. He already skinned the FFA's favorite Swedish knobhead, now he'll do it in Brazil.

 

[Slapdash]

Seems very likely at Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, and Columbia will all advance.

Chile and Ecuador both in groups with decent chances.

Why is it 'likely' that Uruguay advance?

They have a really difficult draw.

They are the best team in their group and I can't see Costa Rica or England getting past them and Italy.

 

[Native]

It took awhile, but it'll be nice to avenge 2002, 2006, and 2010 all in one group stage.

Cool!

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Charv> Spreadsheet ready yet?

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Seems very likely at Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, and Columbia will all advance.

Chile and Ecuador both in groups with decent chances.

Why is it 'likely' that Uruguay advance?

They have a really difficult draw.

They are the best team in their group and I can't see Costa Rica or England getting past them and Italy.

I don't know that they're clearly better than England (the difference between 8th and 10th in the SPI doesn't seem very significant). They have the best player in the group. But they finished fifth in Comnebol qualifying. They don't have a great midfield. Their defenders are aging. Muslera is pretty much an average World Cup goaltender. It's a group with three very, very closely matched teams.

 

[AcerFC]

Charv> Spreadsheet ready yet?

 

[Sammy3469]

Seems very likely at Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, and Columbia will all advance.

Chile and Ecuador both in groups with decent chances.

Why is it 'likely' that Uruguay advance?

They have a really difficult draw.

They are the best team in their group and I can't see Costa Rica or England getting past them and Italy.

I don't know that they're clearly better than England (the difference between 8th and 10th in the SPI doesn't seem very significant). They have the best player in the group. But they finished fifth in Comnebol qualifying. They don't have a great midfield. Their defenders are aging. Muslera is pretty much an average World Cup goaltender. It's a group with three very, very closely matched teams.

At least we aren't Costa Rica

 

[Steve Tasker]

Putting a team at 90+% to advance is foolish.

Are you saying in this group or generally? Seems like Argentina's gotta be way more than a 90% chance of advancing.

Sorry, I should have qualified it with in this group in particular.Yes, if a team has a very weak group, sure they would be 90+, hell closer to 95% to advance. Just look at CL draws.

But, in my eyes, Ghana has just as much chance to advance as Portugal or the U.S. does. If Ghana wins the first game on a dodgy pk, can you not see them advancing? And Germany is certainly not invincible as a side. They are solid and deep, but this is not a club team, it's a national team. Guys don't always click right off the bat and training as a side is limited.

My first inclination is that Ghana and Germany go through. I think Portugal has been living off their reputation for awhile. They did have a nice result at Euro 2012, but they've almost missed the last 2 World Cups.

I think it's natural to think of them as a European power, but they're really not. I think they're a bit better than the US on paper, but I think they're certainly beatable. Of the three group stage opponents, I view them as the worst. No shtick, Gator.

They haven't been a true Euro power in a while, they are just better than USA/Ghana. Everyone clamors for Messi to "take his team on his back" in order to be the GOAT. I think we see that from Cristiano next summer. He already skinned the FFA's favorite Swedish knobhead, now he'll do it in Brazil.

"Figo's not walking through that door. Rui Costa's not walking through that door."

They're the wildcard in the group in my mind. Are they on their game? Or do they go down 3-0 to the US in the first half hour like 2002? Can Ronaldo carry the team on his back?

 

[NewlyRetired]

It took awhile, but it'll be nice to avenge 2002, 2006, and 2010 all in one group stage.

Cool!

Lost to Germany in 1998 as well.

 

[NewlyRetired]

So who is breaking out the #1 Fan of Ghana Soccer alias?

 

[The Gator]

Putting a team at 90+% to advance is foolish.

Are you saying in this group or generally? Seems like Argentina's gotta be way more than a 90% chance of advancing.

Sorry, I should have qualified it with in this group in particular.Yes, if a team has a very weak group, sure they would be 90+, hell closer to 95% to advance. Just look at CL draws.

But, in my eyes, Ghana has just as much chance to advance as Portugal or the U.S. does. If Ghana wins the first game on a dodgy pk, can you not see them advancing? And Germany is certainly not invincible as a side. They are solid and deep, but this is not a club team, it's a national team. Guys don't always click right off the bat and training as a side is limited.

My first inclination is that Ghana and Germany go through. I think Portugal has been living off their reputation for awhile. They did have a nice result at Euro 2012, but they've almost missed the last 2 World Cups.

I think it's natural to think of them as a European power, but they're really not. I think they're a bit better than the US on paper, but I think they're certainly beatable. Of the three group stage opponents, I view them as the worst. No shtick, Gator.

They haven't been a true Euro power in a while, they are just better than USA/Ghana. Everyone clamors for Messi to "take his team on his back" in order to be the GOAT. I think we see that from Cristiano next summer. He already skinned the FFA's favorite Swedish knobhead, now he'll do it in Brazil.

"Figo's not walking through that door. Rui Costa's not walking through that door."

They're the wildcard in the group in my mind. Are they on their game? Or do they go down 3-0 to the US in the first half hour like 2002? Can Ronaldo carry the team on his back?

WILDCARD #####ES!

 

[charvik]

Charv> Spreadsheet ready yet?

Working on it right now!

 

[Slapdash]

Seems very likely at Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, and Columbia will all advance.

Chile and Ecuador both in groups with decent chances.

Why is it 'likely' that Uruguay advance?

They have a really difficult draw.

They are the best team in their group and I can't see Costa Rica or England getting past them and Italy.

I don't know that they're clearly better than England (the difference between 8th and 10th in the SPI doesn't seem very significant). They have the best player in the group. But they finished fifth in Comnebol qualifying. They don't have a great midfield. Their defenders are aging. Muslera is pretty much an average World Cup goaltender. It's a group with three very, very closely matched teams.

Talking about Cavani or Suarez?

I don't really like Uruguay because of their style, but they made the semis in 2010 and just look like they have gotten better to me. Almost beat Brazil in the Confederations.

 

[El Floppo]

Well ####### oof.

 

[Eephus]

Lalas is playing the tournament out on December 6th.

 

[NewlyRetired]

Well, if Rossi bags one against England to help knock them out, that would not be the worst thing he has ever done

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

I just bet $1 on each of the African teams to win the cup. #burnsmoney

 

[T Bell]

Argentina got the easiest draw. They're my favorite now.

Knockout rounds down?

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

I think Uruguay peaked with the Copa America win. And I think the run in 2010 is a little bit less impressive on reflection. They advanced out of a group with a weak host nation and with a "top" team that was toxic (France). We all remember how they got out of the quarter-finals. The absolute heart of their defense (Lugano) is a shell of the player he used to be.

A deep run wouldn't shock me, but neither would a flame out.

 

[NewlyRetired]

If I looked through the knock out rounds correctly, if Argie and Brazil win their groups, they won't meet until the finals.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Is the US scheduled to play in any of the stadiums that are behind schedule?

Yes.

Actually I didn't look.

I'm just assuming even the on time ones are actually behind schedule.

-QG

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

I just bet $1 on each of the African teams to win the cup. #burnsmoney

That's more than Nigeria will pay their players. HEYOOO!!!

 

[Sammy3469]

Argentina got the easiest draw. They're my favorite now.

Knockout rounds down?

Round of 16 is Switz/France

Quarters would be one of: Belgium/Russia/S Korea/Ghana/Portugal/USA (assuming Germany wins our group)

Semi's would be tough...prusumably that would be the winner of Spain/Netherlands/Chile group or 2nd of Uruguay/Italy/England. Even then they're coming off non-tropical games while their opponent would have played 2 in the tropics.

I'm pretty sure you couldn't make an easier draw from their perspective.

 

[Slapdash]

I think Uruguay peaked with the Copa America win. And I think the run in 2010 is a little bit less impressive on reflection. They advanced out of a group with a weak host nation and with a "top" team that was toxic (France). We all remember how they got out of the quarter-finals. The absolute heart of their defense (Lugano) is a shell of the player he used to be.

A deep run wouldn't shock me, but neither would a flame out.

I can see that. Godin is pretty much a rock back there though. Not sure if Caceras can step in, still can't get out of my head how awful he was at Barcelona.

 

[NewlyRetired]

I just bet $1 on each of the African teams to win the cup. #burnsmoney

That's more than Nigeria will pay their players. HEYOOO!!!

Any chance some of the African craziness that seems to affect every WC will happen to Ghana or are they more stable?

 

[QuizGuy66]

Argentina got the easiest draw. They're my favorite now.

Knockout rounds down?

The knockout rounds for Argentina are dream-like.

They get the 2nd place team from The Group of Suck: France, Switzerland, Ecuador, Honduras

Then they get either the 2nd place team from US/Germany/Ghana/Portugal or 1st place team from Belgium/Russia/South Korea/Algeria

Then it's the semis.

Really good draw for them.

-QG

 

[The Gator]

Group G and Group H are the first knockout round match-ups, right?

GROUP H

BELGIUM

ALGERIA

RUSSIA

SOUTH KOREA

Doable

 

[CBusAlex]

Well, it's good to see that we'll have another six months of people (who don't follow politics, apparently) questioning what the hell Nate Silver knows about anything.

 

[Sammy3469]

I just bet $1 on each of the African teams to win the cup. #burnsmoney

While I don't think they'll win, 3 of the 5 certainly got favorable advancing draws. If African teams don't make noise this year it won't be because of the draw.

 

[Scoresman]

US wont beat Belgium, bro.

i'll bet you a bottle of fine stella artois on it.

 

[AAABatteries]

Argentina got the easiest draw. They're my favorite now.

Knockout rounds down?

Both Germany and Argentina have "easy" draws up to the Semis assuming both finish 1st in their respective groups and thus avoid each other. It's not even really that close unless you like Portugal, France or Belgium. If Messi and company don't make at least the semis it will be another perceived failure (if not an actual one).

ESPN has their WC predictor up so you can fill out your bracket and see how things work out.

For example - I think we all assume that Mexico got an easier group but we also all assume they will finish 2nd at best. If they do they they would have a run of something like Netherlands, Italy, Argentina and then Brazil to win the cup. Group B teams got a brutal group and path to the final. If a group B team ends up winning the cup they will well deserve it.

 

[Eephus]

I just bet $1 on each of the African teams to win the cup. #burnsmoney

While I don't think they'll win, 3 of the 5 certainly got favorable advancing draws. If African teams don't make noise this year it won't be because of the draw.

Pele's prediction of an African World Cup winner seems as unlikely as ever.

 

[T Bell]

Argentina got the easiest draw. They're my favorite now.

Knockout rounds down?

The knockout rounds for Argentina are dream-like.

They get the 2nd place team from The Group of Suck: France, Switzerland, Ecuador, Honduras

Then they get either the 2nd place team from US/Germany/Ghana/Portugal or 1st place team from Belgium/Russia/South Korea/Algeria

Then it's the semis.

Really good draw for them.

-QG

When I wrote that, I'd forgotten that you could project the knockout round draws. I agree, that looks like a pretty sweet path for them.

 

[AAABatteries]

Planning on a double feature on July 8th.

WC Semi #1 and

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boys_from_Brazil_%28film%29

 

[The Gator]

US wont beat Belgium, bro.

i'll bet you a bottle of fine stella artois on it.

Russia will finish first in the group = Belgium v. Germany...OOOF

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

US wont beat Belgium, bro.

i'll bet you a bottle of fine stella artois on it.

Ah, the "no win scenario."

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

I just bet $1 on each of the African teams to win the cup. #burnsmoney

While I don't think they'll win, 3 of the 5 certainly got favorable advancing draws. If African teams don't make noise this year it won't be because of the draw.

Pele's prediction of an African World Cup winner seems as unlikely as ever.

I figure if I just cheer for African teams I have better odds than cheering for the US.

 

[Sammy3469]

US wont beat Belgium, bro.

i'll bet you a bottle of fine stella artois on it.

Ah, the "no win scenario."

Truer words haven't been written in this thread

 

[QuizGuy66]

So who are the best traveling fans?

The funny thing about the World Cup is that it's a bit of a leveler for the US that way compared to qualifiers where we have to very carefully pick our venues to keep a home edge.

We should have good support in all our matches. I can't imagine Ghana traveling well. Germany does have the $ and expectations to travel well but we'd still probably have comparable numbers. I think the fact that Portugal game is in the jungle may blunt some of the home-away-from home edge they might enjoy in terms of support.

Teams by venue (no order)

Sao Paolo: Brazil, Croatia, Netherlands, Chile, Uruguay, England, Belgium, South Korea

Natal: Mexico, Cameroon, Japan, Greece, Italy, Uruguay, Ghana, USA

Fortaleza: Brazil, Mexico, Greece, Cote D'Ivoire, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Ghana, Germany

Manaus: Cameroon, Croatia, England, Italy, Honduras, Switzerland, Portugal, USA

Brasilia: Brazil, Cameroon, Colombia, Cote D'Ivoire, Switzerland, Ecuador, Ghana, Portugal

Recife: Croatia, Mexico, Japan, Cote D'Ivoire, Italy, Costa Rica, Germany, USA

Salvador: Spain, Netherlands, France, Switzerland, Bosnia, Iran, Germany, Portugal

Cuiaba: Chile, Australia, Japan, Colombia, Nigeria, Bosnia, Russa, South Korea

Rio: Spain, Chile, France, Ecuador, Argentina, Bosnia, Belgium, Russia

Porto Alegre: Netherlands, Australia, France, Honduras, Nigeria, Argentina, Algeria, South Korea

Curitiba: Spain, Australia, Ecuador, Honduras, Iran, Nigeria, Algeria, Russia

Belo Horizonte: Colombia, Greece, Costa Rica, England, Argentina, Iran, Algeria, Belgium

Belo Horizonte and Curitiba got some dog games.

Salvador looks like a good place to camp out. Sao Paolo too. Manaus did well for being in the middle of nowhere.

-QG

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I looked up Manaus on a map, good lord it's deep in there.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Germany does have the $ and expectations to travel well but we'd still probably have comparable numbers.

Seriously? I would expect German fans to be there in droves.

 

[AAABatteries]

QG, based on your possible draw spreadsheet, exactly how bad did our draw end up? Seems to me to be in the bottom 10% of what we could have gotten but I'm curious what your numbers say.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

I looked up Manaus on a map, good lord it's deep in there.

Ian Horncastle speculated that a jaguar might attack Theo Walcott in the second half.

 

[AAABatteries]

Germany does have the $ and expectations to travel well but we'd still probably have comparable numbers.

Seriously? I would expect German fans to be there in droves.

Time to come out of hiding!

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Will CR7's half-American ******* son root for Uncle Sam?

 

[Moe.]

Belo Horizonte is a lot of fun to say, disappointed we didn't get a game there.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Belo Horizonte is a lot of fun to say, disappointed we didn't get a game there.

Sounds like the name of the actor playing the porn Dracula.

 

[Premier]

Why are they building a stadium in the jungle?

 

[Slapdash]

US wont beat Belgium, bro.

i'll bet you a bottle of fine stella artois on it.

Ah, the "no win scenario."

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Wondering whether Fogo de Chao will be doing any World Cup stuff in DC. That could be my Christmas.