***Official 2014 World Cup Thread*** (4 Viewers)

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Lots of rumors that Walcott may not be selected for the WC, right?

I haven't heard them. My own googling suggests that he's one of the one "on the plane." Injuries would derail that, but I can't think of a who would go ahead of him if he's healthy.

 

[T Bell]

Lots of rumors that Walcott may not be selected for the WC, right?

I'm not hearing that. I doubt it anyway given that he has one of the more unique skill sets, especially his speed which is huge on the counter-attack and would be a key tool for England to compete.

 

[Sammy3469]

The verdict -- I think England are being overlooked a bit. I think they will advance and I wouldn't be shocked by a surprise semi-finals appearance.

I'm going to be shocked if they advance. I don't think that backline holds up against Italy or Uruguay. They're going to need monster performances the midfield to keep the ball away from Balotelli and Suarez as much as possible.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

 

[Mjolnirs]

World Cup Qualification was completed last night.

Mjolnirs posted the following info:

Qualification began June 15, 2011 with Belize defeating Montserrat 5-2 in a match played in Trinidad & Tobago.

889 days, 816 matches and 2,333 goals later, the field is narrowed from 204 to 32.

I get home and start FFing through the draw coverage and right off the bat they throw up some numbers.816 matches, check.

203 nations, ok, 1 federation withdrew. Still ok.

2286 goals. What? I modified my number to 2343 in the other thread, but I'm still 59 short. Back to the spreadsheet.

While trying to find my error I see this page, FIFA World Cup Statistics, and if you add the number of goals for each Federation you get 2333. Which is where I started! I'm right, the ESPN graphic was wrong! :throws mic down and walks off stage:

 

[Sammy3469]

While trying to find my error I see this page, FIFA World Cup Statistics, and if you add the number of goals for each Federation you get 2333. Which is where I started! I'm right, the ESPN graphic was wrong! :throws mic down and walks off stage:

The ironic part is the side graphic says 2350 goals

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

I just heard it the other week from a gb who is from England, which makes me a slight England supporter. Did some googling to see if there's any info:

Hodgson from 12/2 indicating Townsend:

But I do have a pretty good idea of what the players can and can’t do, being in the job for almost two years, I’ve had the chance to look at plenty of players.

“We’ve had periods of experimentation too, players have had a chance to show what they can do, so I feel in a much better situation in terms of knowing my selection compared to when I had to pick my team for the Euros.

“Obviously I knew the players back then, but now I’ve worked with them and I’ve seen them in an England shirt, when previously I was selecting the team on the basis of their form in the Premier League

“One position that is particularly strong is on the wings. Townsend came in for our important games in the last two qualifiers and took the English football world by storm by playing so well.

“But he’s got a lot of competition in Aaron Lennon and Theo Walcott, and Jack Wilshere as well, who is playing on the right for Arsenal at the moment.

From 11/26 Hereisthecity.com:

No-one knows what it's like to be the new flavour of the month more than Theo Walcott. Selected for the 2006 World Cup as a 17-year-old with no Premier League appearances, before exploding onto the international scene two years later with his hat-trick against Croatia, Walcott has had to watch from the physio room as another young London based winger becomes the national team's darling. Incredible really considering the fact Walcott had his best season last year, but there is no denying Townsend has taken the ball and run with it in an impressive way in the recent Wembley games, both figuratively and literally.

From 12/1 express.co.uk

THEO Walcott is hoping to bend Roy Hodgson’s ear about a place on the World Cup plane to Brazil next summer.

The Arsenal winger is confident he can win back his England place, saying: “It is a challenge I can face. I know how to deal with it all and I know how good I am.

“It will take a couple of games, but I am sure I will be back to my best very soon.”

While the Arsenal star has been out for several weeks following stomach surgery, Andros Townsend has jumped into his England place – and made it his own in devastating style.

Walcott had not expected be sidelined for such a long spell that he also missed both England’s crucial World Cup qualifiers against Ukraine and Poland as well as the losing friendlies against Chile and Germany.

But he insists that the “fantastic” football Arsenal played during his enforced absence had made him even more eager to get back.

This time last year you would have put your mortgage money on Walcott being one of the first names on the plane to Rio, but not any more.

Walcott, now 24, returned from his lay-off against Southampton last Saturday and followed that with a half-hour Champions League run-out against Marseille.

Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger is confident he will bounce back with England and the Gunners.

He said: “Theo looks a bit off the pace and needs competition and preparation. But he will go from strength to strength.”

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

FWIW, he did look fast in the 20 mins I saw him out there for the Everton match on Saturday.

 

[T Bell]

FWIW, he did look fast in the 20 mins I saw him out there for the Everton match on Saturday.

He's getting back into match fitness after undergoing hernia surgery. In fact, I could see him starting at Napoli tomorrow, though perhaps Wenger wouldn't leave him in for a full 90 mins yet.

Townsend looks very explosive and direct, and has obviously played well, but Theo seems better able to generate assists as well, as his play last year showed. They're both good options. Unfortunately, they're both right-sided players, and neither is apparently capable of playing an inverted wing position.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Barca is scouting Aaron Ramsey. Probably won't amount to anything.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

FWIW, he did look fast in the 20 mins I saw him out there for the Everton match on Saturday.

He's getting back into match fitness after undergoing hernia surgery. In fact, I could see him starting at Napoli tomorrow, though perhaps Wenger wouldn't leave him in for a full 90 mins yet.

Townsend looks very explosive and direct, and has obviously played well, but Theo seems better able to generate assists as well, as his play last year showed. They're both good options. Unfortunately, they're both right-sided players, and neither is apparently capable of playing an inverted wing position.

Sorry I bagged on your boy.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Lennon and Townsend are direct competitors for minutes with Tottenham. It's hard to imagine both of them going. Lennon's rise in the last two weeks or so has directly coincided with less of a role for Townsend. Anything can happen if Theo doesn't get his job back, but my guess is that he will do just that. Arsenal have played admirably without him, but they've missed his ability to get behind defenders.

He'll probably be rotated more than in the past because sometimes Wilshere or Ramsey need to play on the right to accommodate Arteta or Flamini in the pivot.

 

[dparker713]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

 

[Sinn Fein]

FWIW, he did look fast in the 20 mins I saw him out there for the Everton match on Saturday.

He's getting back into match fitness after undergoing hernia surgery. In fact, I could see him starting at Napoli tomorrow, though perhaps Wenger wouldn't leave him in for a full 90 mins yet.

Townsend looks very explosive and direct, and has obviously played well, but Theo seems better able to generate assists as well, as his play last year showed. They're both good options. Unfortunately, they're both right-sided players, and neither is apparently capable of playing an inverted wing position.

Isn't Walcott more of a winger? Townsend is left-footed, and plays more of a inside-forward role, where he'll cut the ball inside (and take a shot more often than not), rather than play a traditional winger role and cross the ball.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

That's because I largely don't believe in the home continent advantage.

EDIT: Or to put it differently. I think the home continent advantage is decent tie breaker if you're trying to decide on an ultimate winner. If you want to boost Argentina or Brazil a bit, that makes sense. On current form, however, Uruguay isn't a World Cup contender. They're not even the third best team in Comnebol right now. And I've never seen any analysis of "home continent" advantage that shows that it keeps Europeans out of the knockout rounds and places Comnebol teams into the knockout rounds in any greater numbers.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

FWIW, he did look fast in the 20 mins I saw him out there for the Everton match on Saturday.

He's getting back into match fitness after undergoing hernia surgery. In fact, I could see him starting at Napoli tomorrow, though perhaps Wenger wouldn't leave him in for a full 90 mins yet.

Townsend looks very explosive and direct, and has obviously played well, but Theo seems better able to generate assists as well, as his play last year showed. They're both good options. Unfortunately, they're both right-sided players, and neither is apparently capable of playing an inverted wing position.

Isn't Walcott more of a winger? Townsend is left-footed, and plays more of a inside-forward role, where he'll cut the ball inside (and take a shot more often than not), rather than play a traditional winger role and cross the ball.

Neither are traditional "get chalk on your heels" wingers. Walcott is pretty much your prototypical inside forward running off of a target striker. Townsend is probably more accurately described as a right sided attacking midfielder. He rarely looks to get in behind the striker. He's much more likely than Walcott to have a pop outside the box.

http://deadspin.com/lets-celebrate-the-least-efficient-scorer-in-the-premi-1461400163

 

[DiStefano]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

I'll tell you, if they ever play it in Antarctica, that Antarctica team will win it all.

 

[The Gator]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

That's because I largely don't believe in the home continent advantage.

Oh yeah?

Uruguay has never lost a World Cup in Brazil

 

[T Bell]

FWIW, he did look fast in the 20 mins I saw him out there for the Everton match on Saturday.

He's getting back into match fitness after undergoing hernia surgery. In fact, I could see him starting at Napoli tomorrow, though perhaps Wenger wouldn't leave him in for a full 90 mins yet.

Townsend looks very explosive and direct, and has obviously played well, but Theo seems better able to generate assists as well, as his play last year showed. They're both good options. Unfortunately, they're both right-sided players, and neither is apparently capable of playing an inverted wing position.

Sorry I bagged on your boy.

No, he's not my boy. He plays for my team but as most Gooners will tell you he causes as much heartburn as joy at times. I try to be objective about all of my team's players' strengths and weaknesses.

 

[T Bell]

FWIW, he did look fast in the 20 mins I saw him out there for the Everton match on Saturday.

He's getting back into match fitness after undergoing hernia surgery. In fact, I could see him starting at Napoli tomorrow, though perhaps Wenger wouldn't leave him in for a full 90 mins yet.

Townsend looks very explosive and direct, and has obviously played well, but Theo seems better able to generate assists as well, as his play last year showed. They're both good options. Unfortunately, they're both right-sided players, and neither is apparently capable of playing an inverted wing position.

Isn't Walcott more of a winger? Townsend is left-footed, and plays more of a inside-forward role, where he'll cut the ball inside (and take a shot more often than not), rather than play a traditional winger role and cross the ball.

I forgot Townsend is left-footed.

Yes, he likes to cut inside to the top of the penalty area and have a pot at goal with a pretty powerful left footed shot. He did that at least twice against Arsenal back in August. I don't know if he's any good crossing with that foot from the left side of the pitch though. Never seen him do it, so I'll defer to others there.

Yes, Walcott is pretty much a RW. His best asset is is diagonal runs toward the near post. His speed usually makes the defense play back which opens up space for the attacking midfield. He's also deadly on the break. His finishing is good, and his passing and crossing have improved along with (thank God) his first touch and even his dribbling, which have been his weak areas along with his vision and propensity to dribble into traffic at times.

 

[Steve Tasker]

You've got the Ox listed as a starter for England? I guess they're thin there....

 

[T Bell]

You've got the Ox listed as a starter for England? I guess they're thin there....

He's got the talent but his injury and Hodgson's conservative tactics work against him. Also, I'm not really sure how he gets into the Arsenal side right now if everyone's healthy. Gnabry, who most reminds me of him, really should be playing more and he's not getting any game time.

 

[Christo]

I think GK is the last position the US has to worry about.

Agreed. There are ALWAYS some good players that can be called upon by the USMNT to tend the net.

Why is this true? I feel like even 20 years ago when the U.S. team was much worse, the bright spot was always that we had a decent keeper.

Yanks like to use their hands. Hell, even Stallone was the GK in VICTORY!

 

[DiStefano]

I think GK is the last position the US has to worry about.

Agreed. There are ALWAYS some good players that can be called upon by the USMNT to tend the net.

Why is this true? I feel like even 20 years ago when the U.S. team was much worse, the bright spot was always that we had a decent keeper.

Yanks like to use their hands. Hell, even Stallone was the GK in VICTORY!

Yanks aren't the only ones...

Apparently God does too...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ccNkksrfls

 

[Christo]

I think GK is the last position the US has to worry about.

Agreed. There are ALWAYS some good players that can be called upon by the USMNT to tend the net.

Why is this true? I feel like even 20 years ago when the U.S. team was much worse, the bright spot was always that we had a decent keeper.

Yanks like to use their hands. Hell, even Stallone was the GK in VICTORY!

Yanks aren't the only ones...

Apparently God does too...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ccNkksrfls

I was in a pub in London watching that one. Lots of butt hurt Brits that day.

 

[DiStefano]

I think GK is the last position the US has to worry about.

Agreed. There are ALWAYS some good players that can be called upon by the USMNT to tend the net.

Why is this true? I feel like even 20 years ago when the U.S. team was much worse, the bright spot was always that we had a decent keeper.

Yanks like to use their hands. Hell, even Stallone was the GK in VICTORY!

Yanks aren't the only ones...

Apparently God does too...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ccNkksrfls

I was in a pub in London watching that one. Lots of butt hurt Brits that day.

Maybe. I doubt the Scots and Welsh were very upset.

 

[T Bell]

I think GK is the last position the US has to worry about.

Agreed. There are ALWAYS some good players that can be called upon by the USMNT to tend the net.

Why is this true? I feel like even 20 years ago when the U.S. team was much worse, the bright spot was always that we had a decent keeper.

Yanks like to use their hands. Hell, even Stallone was the GK in VICTORY!

Yanks aren't the only ones...

Apparently God does too...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ccNkksrfls

I was in a pub in London watching that one. Lots of butt hurt Brits that day.

Maybe. I doubt the Scots and Welsh were very upset.

Yep.

Back to the point though, this was only four years after the Falklands War too, so there was already some hard feelings about the Argies.

 

[NewlyRetired]

About 1.6 million people watched the draw on Univision/ESPN2.

I am really interested to see the WatchESPN/ESPN3 numbers. If that many watched on tv, the online numbers should have been pretty good given the time slot.

 

[AAABatteries]

I think GK is the last position the US has to worry about.

Agreed. There are ALWAYS some good players that can be called upon by the USMNT to tend the net.

Why is this true? I feel like even 20 years ago when the U.S. team was much worse, the bright spot was always that we had a decent keeper.

As we learned earlier in this thread, we can always just plug in an NBA player at GK he'll be untouchable.

You don't read very well.

 

[AAABatteries]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

That's because I largely don't believe in the home continent advantage.

EDIT: Or to put it differently. I think the home continent advantage is decent tie breaker if you're trying to decide on an ultimate winner. If you want to boost Argentina or Brazil a bit, that makes sense. On current form, however, Uruguay isn't a World Cup contender. They're not even the third best team in Comnebol right now. And I've never seen any analysis of "home continent" advantage that shows that it keeps Europeans out of the knockout rounds and places Comnebol teams into the knockout rounds in any greater numbers.

- I think many are overrating this home continent advantage notion. I agree that you can give Argentina and Brazil a slight bump but they are already 2 of the top 5 teams in the world.

 

[Sand]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

That's because I largely don't believe in the home continent advantage.

EDIT: Or to put it differently. I think the home continent advantage is decent tie breaker if you're trying to decide on an ultimate winner. If you want to boost Argentina or Brazil a bit, that makes sense. On current form, however, Uruguay isn't a World Cup contender. They're not even the third best team in Comnebol right now. And I've never seen any analysis of "home continent" advantage that shows that it keeps Europeans out of the knockout rounds and places Comnebol teams into the knockout rounds in any greater numbers.

- I think many are overrating this home continent advantage notion. I agree that you can give Argentina and Brazil a slight bump but they are already 2 of the top 5 teams in the world.

So no bump for a team like Ecuador (arguably the most marginal of the South American teams)?

 

[dparker713]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

That's because I largely don't believe in the home continent advantage.

EDIT: Or to put it differently. I think the home continent advantage is decent tie breaker if you're trying to decide on an ultimate winner. If you want to boost Argentina or Brazil a bit, that makes sense. On current form, however, Uruguay isn't a World Cup contender. They're not even the third best team in Comnebol right now. And I've never seen any analysis of "home continent" advantage that shows that it keeps Europeans out of the knockout rounds and places Comnebol teams into the knockout rounds in any greater numbers.

I guess I also just don't think England are particularly dangerous. Outside of Rooney, who's going to actually threaten to score? Fat Frank off the bench?

 

[Sebowski]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

That's because I largely don't believe in the home continent advantage.

EDIT: Or to put it differently. I think the home continent advantage is decent tie breaker if you're trying to decide on an ultimate winner. If you want to boost Argentina or Brazil a bit, that makes sense. On current form, however, Uruguay isn't a World Cup contender. They're not even the third best team in Comnebol right now. And I've never seen any analysis of "home continent" advantage that shows that it keeps Europeans out of the knockout rounds and places Comnebol teams into the knockout rounds in any greater numbers.

I guess I also just don't think England are particularly dangerous. Outside of Rooney, who's going to actually threaten to score? Fat Frank off the bench?

Their best player, Walcott

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Based on betting odds for all of the group games, here's the most probable order of finish for each group:

A: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon

B: Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia

C: Colombia, Ivory Coast, Japan, Greece (all pretty close between the last 3)

D: Italy, Uruguay, England, Costa Rica (fairly close between Uruguay and England)

E: France, Switzerland, Ecuador, Honduras

F: Argentina, Bosnia-Herzegovenia, Nigeria, Iran

G: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, USA (Ghana is a slight favorite against the US, Portugal is slightly more favored against US than against Ghana)

H: Belgium, Russia, South Korea, Algeria

 

[QuizGuy66]

Fun article which shows a Turkish referee who was able to produce a 'rigged' draw as well as some classic '82 draw confusion:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/64491494/

Here's the google translate of an article on the Uruguay conspiracy video (point for the X-files music):

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.taringa.net%2Fposts%2Fdeportes%2F17389245%2FManipulacion-sorteo-Fifa-mundial-2014.html%3Futm_source%3Dfeedburner%26utm_medium%3Dfeed%26utm_campaign%3DFeed%253A%2BTaringa%252Fultimos-post%2B%2528Taringa.net%2B-%2B%25C3%259Altimos%2Bpost%2529&act=url

The argument can be made. And certainly I can't be the only one who paused and thought "Germany and Ghana - OF COURSE that's where the US will be drawn "

-QG

 

[AAABatteries]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

That's because I largely don't believe in the home continent advantage.

EDIT: Or to put it differently. I think the home continent advantage is decent tie breaker if you're trying to decide on an ultimate winner. If you want to boost Argentina or Brazil a bit, that makes sense. On current form, however, Uruguay isn't a World Cup contender. They're not even the third best team in Comnebol right now. And I've never seen any analysis of "home continent" advantage that shows that it keeps Europeans out of the knockout rounds and places Comnebol teams into the knockout rounds in any greater numbers.

- I think many are overrating this home continent advantage notion. I agree that you can give Argentina and Brazil a slight bump but they are already 2 of the top 5 teams in the world.

So no bump for a team like Ecuador (arguably the most marginal of the South American teams)?

Sure, but I don't consider them a top 8 team as their seed would indicate (although they would be close). I think it is VERY close between those 3 - Uruguay, Italy and England. Any combination of those 3 advancing wouldn't surprise me. However,

 

[AAABatteries]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

That's because I largely don't believe in the home continent advantage.

EDIT: Or to put it differently. I think the home continent advantage is decent tie breaker if you're trying to decide on an ultimate winner. If you want to boost Argentina or Brazil a bit, that makes sense. On current form, however, Uruguay isn't a World Cup contender. They're not even the third best team in Comnebol right now. And I've never seen any analysis of "home continent" advantage that shows that it keeps Europeans out of the knockout rounds and places Comnebol teams into the knockout rounds in any greater numbers.

I guess I also just don't think England are particularly dangerous. Outside of Rooney, who's going to actually threaten to score? Fat Frank off the bench?

It's a fair question. I would think that Sturridge or Welbeck would be candidates - especially Sturridge if he gets fully fit and is on form. England will most likely have to score from set pieces if they want to do well and advance.

If I were and England fan I think I would want Roy to drop most of the old guard and give the young guys a shot. I'm talking about A. Cole, Rio, Lampard, Young. Gerrard is the only one I would consider keeping.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

There's apparently statistical evidence on the home continent thing, though I haven't seen it.

The estimate is that it's worth about 1/2 as much as home nation advantage. That doesn't turn Ecuador into a Q-finalist, it just gives them an edge.

 

[Sammy3469]

There's apparently statistical evidence on the home continent thing, though I haven't seen it.

The estimate is that it's worth about 1/2 as much as home nation advantage. That doesn't turn Ecuador into a Q-finalist, it just gives them an edge.

Meh on Ecuador getting any advantage. Their big advantage is playing home games in Quito at altitude. They basically win there and lose/tie on the road. They lucked out in the draw and while the may be able to advance going 1-1-1, it'll because of a weak group, not because of the continental advantage. I actually wouldn't be shocked if all they could do is manage a draw against Honduras.

BTW, I had forgotten this, but Honduras managed a tie against the Swiss in the 2010 WC in a game where the Swiss were still alive to advance. They play in Manaus this time which can't be a bad thing for Honduras.

I'm really like France in this group.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

That's because I largely don't believe in the home continent advantage.

EDIT: Or to put it differently. I think the home continent advantage is decent tie breaker if you're trying to decide on an ultimate winner. If you want to boost Argentina or Brazil a bit, that makes sense. On current form, however, Uruguay isn't a World Cup contender. They're not even the third best team in Comnebol right now. And I've never seen any analysis of "home continent" advantage that shows that it keeps Europeans out of the knockout rounds and places Comnebol teams into the knockout rounds in any greater numbers.

I guess I also just don't think England are particularly dangerous. Outside of Rooney, who's going to actually threaten to score? Fat Frank off the bench?

It's a fair question. I would think that Sturridge or Welbeck would be candidates - especially Sturridge if he gets fully fit and is on form. England will most likely have to score from set pieces if they want to do well and advance.

If I were and England fan I think I would want Roy to drop most of the old guard and give the young guys a shot. I'm talking about A. Cole, Rio, Lampard, Young. Gerrard is the only one I would consider keeping.

If there's a team in that group without a proven international goal scorer, it's Italy. Balotelli has 12 goals in 29 caps. We all remember his great Euro 2012 Semifinal, but he's not been a consistent goal scorer for Italy.

Welbeck has almost the exact same strike rate for England. 8 goals in 20 caps.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

When do the Germans activate their mind control device on Jurgen? Do they use it right out of the gate or do they hold off to see if they even need it?

 

[T Bell]

When do the Germans activate their mind control device on Jurgen? Do they use it right out of the gate or do they hold off to see if they even need it?

He's activated when Frankie's "Relax" starts playing.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

When do the Germans activate their mind control device on Jurgen? Do they use it right out of the gate or do they hold off to see if they even need it?

He's activated when Frankie's "Relax" starts playing.

"What's this? Evans is being moved to CAM?"

 

[T Bell]

Yeah, it would appear that a Brazilian World Cup will present some challenges for Iranian TV broadcasting.

 

[Slapdash]

Interesting that people speculting the Brits will be happy with their draw. I'm pretty happy with Italy's draw, to be honest. England just isn't that good.

Yep. It is that time of the cycle for people to overrate England again.

 

[NewlyRetired]

When do the Germans activate their mind control device on Jurgen? Do they use it right out of the gate or do they hold off to see if they even need it?

He's activated when Frankie's "Relax" starts playing.

"What's this? Evans is being moved to CAM?"

Sadly CAM is closer to Evans real position than RB is :(

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

When do the Germans activate their mind control device on Jurgen? Do they use it right out of the gate or do they hold off to see if they even need it?

Jogi was JK's assistant. Maybe JK has the mind control device, hmm? Explains the Ter Stegen error in DC rather conveniently.

 

[dparker713]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

That's because I largely don't believe in the home continent advantage.

EDIT: Or to put it differently. I think the home continent advantage is decent tie breaker if you're trying to decide on an ultimate winner. If you want to boost Argentina or Brazil a bit, that makes sense. On current form, however, Uruguay isn't a World Cup contender. They're not even the third best team in Comnebol right now. And I've never seen any analysis of "home continent" advantage that shows that it keeps Europeans out of the knockout rounds and places Comnebol teams into the knockout rounds in any greater numbers.

I guess I also just don't think England are particularly dangerous. Outside of Rooney, who's going to actually threaten to score? Fat Frank off the bench?

It's a fair question. I would think that Sturridge or Welbeck would be candidates - especially Sturridge if he gets fully fit and is on form. England will most likely have to score from set pieces if they want to do well and advance.

If I were and England fan I think I would want Roy to drop most of the old guard and give the young guys a shot. I'm talking about A. Cole, Rio, Lampard, Young. Gerrard is the only one I would consider keeping.

If there's a team in that group without a proven international goal scorer, it's Italy. Balotelli has 12 goals in 29 caps. We all remember his great Euro 2012 Semifinal, but he's not been a consistent goal scorer for Italy.

Welbeck has almost the exact same strike rate for England. 8 goals in 20 caps.

As Italy has proven in the past, it's hard to get knocked out when the opponent can't score.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

While researching for fantasy EPL, I noticed that Hart's save percentage has been pretty mediocre, even before this year. I don't know if that's a result of City's defense squashing all half-chances but not opps. where Hart has no chance.

So if England goes through, do you think it's at the expense of Uruguay or Italy? I'm assuming you project (as does everyone) that CR is dead-meat.

Gerrard out for six weeks, btw.

I think save percentage is a misleading statistic. Goaltenders are big contributors to teams that limit chances and I value players on teams that limit chances.

I have Uruguay missing the knock out rounds, although I think it could also be Italy. My reasoning is based on the indifferent qualifying campaign and my own impression that both Suarez and Cavani mesh better with (a WAY past his prime) Forlan than they do with each other. I've mentioned before that I don't think much of Uruguay's midfield.

I think you're underestimating the home continent advantage.

That's because I largely don't believe in the home continent advantage.

EDIT: Or to put it differently. I think the home continent advantage is decent tie breaker if you're trying to decide on an ultimate winner. If you want to boost Argentina or Brazil a bit, that makes sense. On current form, however, Uruguay isn't a World Cup contender. They're not even the third best team in Comnebol right now. And I've never seen any analysis of "home continent" advantage that shows that it keeps Europeans out of the knockout rounds and places Comnebol teams into the knockout rounds in any greater numbers.

I guess I also just don't think England are particularly dangerous. Outside of Rooney, who's going to actually threaten to score? Fat Frank off the bench?

It's a fair question. I would think that Sturridge or Welbeck would be candidates - especially Sturridge if he gets fully fit and is on form. England will most likely have to score from set pieces if they want to do well and advance.

If I were and England fan I think I would want Roy to drop most of the old guard and give the young guys a shot. I'm talking about A. Cole, Rio, Lampard, Young. Gerrard is the only one I would consider keeping.

If there's a team in that group without a proven international goal scorer, it's Italy. Balotelli has 12 goals in 29 caps. We all remember his great Euro 2012 Semifinal, but he's not been a consistent goal scorer for Italy.

Welbeck has almost the exact same strike rate for England. 8 goals in 20 caps.

As Italy has proven in the past, it's hard to get knocked out when the opponent can't score.

I don't want to spoil my Italy preview too much, but ...

Italy has given up 25 goals in 17 games in 2013. They gave up 10 in five games in the Confed Cup.

They gave up 2 to Denmark and 2 to Armenia in successive WCQ games (which is why they weren't seeded). They gave up 2 to Haiti in a friendly prior to the Confed Cup.

For better or worse, Italy is a different type of team under Prandelli. They play more positive, but they leak more goals, even with very accomplished defenders at the back (I actually think that Buffon is a bit past his best).

 

[CletiusMaximus]

It's surprising that Buffon still has that job. Not that I'm qualified to comment on his performance, it just seems he's been in goal for Italy forever. I'm pretty sure he was their #1 in Korea/Japan 2002.