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*** Official 2016 AtlanticHurricane Season thread *** (1 Viewer)

Local Jax weather guy is predicting gusts to 65 on beach and gusts to 55 east of 17 locally.

I was really expecting worse given these model runs.

 
Buddy of mine has to decide whether he's going to drive from Jax down to Boca to pick up his son at FAU. 

Boca is probably in less danger than we are.

 
Lesson learned from Floyd is that unless they have the interstate lanes reversed, I would use secondary roads. 

45 mph with lights > sitting in traffic

 
Mjolnirs said:
google images of Hurricane Floyd Traffic.  Hopefully the lane reversal system will make things flow better, but I would not wait too long to hit the road.
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We're leaving by 630, will hopefully be past Atlanta before the lane reversal, if not close to home. 

 
GFS model this morning shows Matthew looping back south after North Carolina towards the Bahamas instead of going out to sea. Then, it'll curl back towards Florida. :unsure:

 
This thing is crazy. Jeff Masters was saying Monday that Nicole would have no effect. Wrong. As it stands now, NHC is buying the loop the Euro predicted yesterday and the GFS is showing now. This thing is possibly going to be menacing the western Atlantic for another week and a half. :wall:  

 
cobalt_27 said:
I live just outside Charleston in one of the coastal communities governor Haley said was on evacuation orders tomorrow.  Thinking of waiting until Thursday, heading up to Charlotte.  Any reason that's a bad idea?  I'm new to this b.s.
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The longer you wait the worse traffic will be.  If you plan on staying just plan on losing power for days and think real hard if its worth it.  I live on the southern outer banks and hurricanes, even hard tropical storms are not fun.  Not fun at all.  We normally get flooding and all the fun stuff.   For what its worth I am taking my family north to get away from it.  Its not worth the risk and I even have a kick a generator but its just not worth it.

 
Good work guys.  Iron Shiek was money......but in his absence, the weather reports on this site haven't skipped a beat.  This site and Frankie MacDonald are STILL the two places I check first for catastrophic weather. 

 
Media: Hurry up and fill your tank before they run out.

(Hordes rush to the gas station)

Media: See, we told you they'd run out. Now, stay off the roads!

 
Thunderlips said:
Good work guys.  Iron Shiek was money......but in his absence, the weather reports on this site haven't skipped a beat.  This site and Frankie MacDonald are STILL the two places I check first for catastrophic weather. 
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So wanted this to go to the maritimes so we could get a little Frankie freakout.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Just Flew back to WPB tonight...holy ####. Gas lines are either 10 deep or they are out until tomorrow. Water gone off all shelves...Christ folks we aren't taking a direct hit....people are worked up about this one. Never seen folks prepare this far in advance. 
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In WPB? How do you know? That's the whole point of the cone.  A slight wobble and WPB gets a direct impact.  As it stands now, it's looking to impact around Vero Beach, head north right along the coastline and then turn away around Jacksonville, but no one knows for sure the exact landing spot.  Wobbles aren't meaningful hundreds of miles out to sea, but as it approaches land, an unforeseen wobble can be the difference in you getting a direct hit, and another town getting a direct hit.

If you're in the cone (which WPB is), prepare for an attack.  I mean...WPB is under a hurricane warning.

 
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knowledge dropper said:
So the slower it moves the more southern the landfall?
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That's often how it works. I'm living in Stuart, FL, with a wood frame house, and I'm boarding up and headed for greener pastures. I'm more curious about how my boat will do near the house. It's pretty heavy and has seagrape trees along one side, so they may break the wind up nearby.

 
Timelines to keep in mind for today:

11am Eastern, NWS new advisory where they will update the cone.

12pm eastern (a bit before):  New GFS run

2-3PM eastern - New Euro run (my favorite)

5PM eastern:  NWS advisory that is heavily influenced by the GFS/Euro mid-day runs.

 
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Cuba and Haiti took a major chunk out of this thing.  I believe it entered Haiti with a pressure of 941.

When it exited Cuba earlier, the pressure had gone up to 964, which is a significant weakening.

The latest runs, that also coincide with a visible reorganization of the eye, have the pressure down to 959.

So a 5mb drop. Not a trend we want to see continue.

 
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Wife is supposed to fly to KW Thursday for a bachelorette party.  They said they will drive if the flight is cancelled.

 
Gas was sold out near my house last night. Owner was kind and let me know he already had reserves in the ground there but can't turn it on until 6 am, I had both cars at his pumps at 5:30 just to make sure...yes I was first but I had plenty of company by 5:45.

D cell batteries which most major stuff needs completely out everywhere. Publix no water until later today...I've never seen it like this so far ahead of the storm. I didn't know we had that many people who lived in this little town. 

 
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shader said:
Timelines to keep in mind for today:

12PM Eastern, NWS new advisory where they will update the cone.

1PM eastern (a bit before):  New GFS run

2-3PM eastern - New Euro run (my favorite)

5PM eastern:  NWS advisory that is heavily influenced by the GFS/Euro mid-day runs.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure next advisory is at 11 AM

Code: 
Next advisory ------------- next complete advisory at 1100 am EDT.
Code: 
$$
Forecaster Avila
Click to expand...

 
Already appears to be reintensifying, it shrugged off those mountains without much trouble. Getting out of work in 2 hours, finishing up boarding, then headed out to hopefully avoid the worst of it.

 
Went to the Westar gas station near my house last night to fill up. Not crazy lines but they were out of all gas except for the Premium Unleaded. They were selling at the Regular Unleaded price. Good Guy Gas. 

 
shader said:
Cuba and Haiti took a major chunk out of this thing.  I believe it entered Haiti with a pressure of 941.

When it exited Cuba earlier, the pressure had gone up to 964, which is a significant weakening.

The latest runs, that also coincide with a visible reorganization of the eye, have the pressure down to 959.

So a 5mb drop. Not a trend we want to see continue.




 
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Also, those heavy storm bands that have been to the east of the center that had forecasters mystified are completely gone.

I'm not certain this thing reaches Cat 4 before it arrives in Florida. It looks pretty ragged as strong hurricanes go.

 
Water temp is above 85 in the section ahead of it...it's going to strengthen just a matter of time. 

Cat 5 at some point not out of the question...this thing spent more solid time without interruption of a Cat 4 since some storm in 1952. But I'm sure we're fine  :oldunsure:

 
11AM advisory still has Matthew offshore and may be slightly to the East.

Slower timeframe with Matthew reaching FL/GA border Saturday morning.

 
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