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*** Official 2016 AtlanticHurricane Season thread *** (1 Viewer)

The GFS is out.  It's a devastating forecast.  Shifted west and moves inland much more than I've seen in previous runs.  

Head to  tropicaltidbits.com and look at the gfs run for further details.  Be very safe FL fbgs 

 
Hope everyone stays safe.  I'm in Philly and heading back to Tampa on Sunday.  Hoping no issues heading back.

 
Storm's looking like it's getting its act back together in a hurry.

Jeff Masters' latest blog is foreboding for people on the Florida east coast. I've forgotten how these kind of whopper hurricanes somehow swell to an even bigger size as it approaches the U.S.

 
I'm in Raleigh, supposed to fly back to TX on Friday at 5pm. Will I make it out or should I move the flight up?  TIA

hope everyone stays safe

 
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shader said:
It's not good.  The Euro only comes out in 24 hour chunks, which can be frustrating, but it's generally been the most accurate.  The 72 hour slams it into Charleston, just when they were starting to think they were out of the woods.  
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Where does it show it goes after the SC coast?  I couldnt find that on the page.

 
pantherclub said:
Looks like Charleston will get leveled
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If that track happened, the big question would be how much land interaction this storm has in Florida that would weaken it when it hits Charleston.  Wind shear is forecast to increase, so if it did hit Charleston like that, you're LIKELY to see a Cat2, which isn't great in itself, but is much better than a Cat4.  

At this point, the main models and the NHC are all pretty much in line with each other.  This thing is headed for the Space Coast, then is going to ride up the coastline.  It's unlikely that the models will change anymore, as we're getting into the time period when these models and the NHC can nail the path, so a landfall is coming.

The only question now is how strong it will be and it looks to be strengthening as we speak.

 
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pantherclub said:
Where does it show it goes after the SC coast?  I couldnt find that on the page.
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The model is running right now.  The 96 hour run just came out.  Seems to take about 4-5 minutes for each "24" hour segment, but once these things get 5 days out, they aren't nearly as accurate as the 1-3 day model runs.

 
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shader said:
If that track happened, the big question would be how much land interaction this storm has in Florida that would weaken it when it hits Charleston.  Wind shear is forecast to increase, so if it did hit Charleston like that, you're LIKELY to see a Cat2, which isn't great in itself, but is much better than a Cat4.  

At the point, the main models and the NHC are all pretty much in line with each other.  This thing is headed for the Space Coast, then is going to ride up the coastline.  It's unlikely that the models will change anymore, as we're getting into the time period when these models and the NHC can nail the path, so a landfall is coming.

The only question now is how strong it will be, and it looks to be strengthening as we speak.
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I hope Charleston is okay, I have plans to see Phish there the next weekend. :headbang:

 
From the gut...this SOB is gonna do a real close shave of Palm Beach but Vero Beach to Cape Canaveral is going to take a beating. If you live East of 95 and especially A1A, I don't think I would play games with it. I'm going to make a from the gut call sometime early tomorrow morning like the 5 am Update...I can get out from Jupiter to around Lake Okeechobee to Tampa and lots of friends and family. 

Batton down the hatches boys and girls, it's gonna get rough. Getting little squawls with a little bite to them right now...gone in 2 to 3 minutes but you can tell something is up...like a flock of birds trying to get out of the way.

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
From the gut...this SOB is gonna do a real close shave of Palm Beach but Vero Beach to Cape Canaveral is going to take a beating. If you live East of 95 and especially A1A, I don't think I would play games with it. I'm going to make a from the gut call sometime early tomorrow morning like the 5 am Update...I can get out around Lake Okeechobee to Tampa and lots of friends and family. 

Batton down the hatches boys and girls, it's gonna get rough. Getting little squeals with a little bite to them right now...gone I. 2 to 3 minutes but you can tell something is up...like a flock of birds trying to get out of the way.
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Likely going to be a Cat 4 upon arrival - this is not going to be good. Scheduled for a cruise departing Port Canaveral on 10/15 - my prediction is that the Port will not yet be re-opened by the 15th. It's going to take some time to repair damage, dredge the port area, etc. If you are in Florida or South Carolina, stay safe.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
From the gut...this SOB is gonna do a real close shave of Palm Beach but Vero Beach to Cape Canaveral is going to take a beating. If you live East of 95 and especially A1A, I don't think I would play games with it. I'm going to make a from the gut call sometime early tomorrow morning like the 5 am Update...I can get out from Jupiter to around Lake Okeechobee to Tampa and lots of friends and family. 

Batton down the hatches boys and girls, it's gonna get rough. Getting little squawls with a little bite to them right now...gone in 2 to 3 minutes but you can tell something is up...like a flock of birds trying to get out of the way.
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Can't wait to find out if Matthew is one to exploit or avoid

 
Hate to be asking selfish questions with some of you guys right in the path of this, but I have a wedding in the Outer Banks near Corolla on Friday night. I'm in NJ so I'd be driving halfway tonight, rest of the way tomorrow morning, then hang out for a couple days and go to the wedding Friday night, then driving back home Saturday. Am I a lunatic for thinking we can get in and get out before any sort of storms hit us, or is it just a stupid idea and I should tell them we're not coming?

Stay safe everyone who is anywhere near the track that appears it'll be getting the brunt of this.

 
Michael Brown said:
Hate to be asking selfish questions with some of you guys right in the path of this, but I have a wedding in the Outer Banks near Corolla on Friday night. I'm in NJ so I'd be driving halfway tonight, rest of the way tomorrow morning, then hang out for a couple days and go to the wedding Friday night, then driving back home Saturday. Am I a lunatic for thinking we can get in and get out before any sort of storms hit us, or is it just a stupid idea and I should tell them we're not coming?

Stay safe everyone who is anywhere near the track that appears it'll be getting the brunt of this.
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It's not a selfish question.  Friday night the storm will be in the middle of Florida.  But I can't speak as to the traffic in the Outer Banks right now, tomorrow, etc.  Is there anyone you can call there right now to see the general mood, the consensus for evacuations, etc?  Seems like the Outer Banks would be a nightmare to get out of if an evacuation happened.

 
Not liking either the NHC forecast or the latest GFS run.  

 
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The pressure really hasn't dropped all day.  While the track is a horrible scenario and a Cat 2-3 would still be very destructive on this track, if the storm doesn't intensify, that's a very good thing.  A cat4 on this track would be an unmitigated disaster.

In fact, the latest recon runs haven't found the 120MPH winds that they did earlier.

Now, this thing still has a day and a half to strengthen, but that's good news.

 
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Local meteorologist  doesn't think it will intensify much more but the path is going to be huge problem for the area including 6 to 8 feet storm surge.

 
For the OBX question,  there's a chance they don't let you go out to the barrier islands if they've posted evacuation notices.

 
JaxBill said:
For the OBX question,  there's a chance they don't let you go out to the barrier islands if they've posted evacuation notices.
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Most of the wedding guests are already there. The wedding party rented two huge houses that are literally on the sand on the beach. There are about eight of us who were supposed to leave tomorrow morning. Got a text from the groom saying that everything is supposed to be fine there and the storm won't hit til Saturday or Sunday. The fact that they don't know what day it's hitting, plus the fact that the weather prediction for the area has shifted wildly over the last 24 hours, is concerning

 
JaxBill said:
Local meteorologist  doesn't think it will intensify much more but the path is going to be huge problem for the area including 6 to 8 feet storm surge.
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That always annoys me when meteorologists say stuff like that.  He's literally causing some people to stay that otherwise might leave.  And intensity is the most difficult thing to forecast.

There's absolutely no reason that this won't intensify more.  It's finally almost done with the restructure after going through Haiti and Cuba and it's almost closed off it's eye.  Now why would it not have a good chance of gaining intensity in the warm bahamas with warm water and 30-40 hours until landfall?  Not a message a meteorologist needs to share.

The NHC is very cautious with intensity forecasts, mainly because they are so difficult.

 
Gonna be ugly with this path, even if it drops in intensity. I'm about 40 miles west of the space coast, hunkered down for the next few days. I sure as hell hope this thing changes track, but at this time, I don't see much hope of that. 

Stay safe all. 

 
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It looks like it's intensifying for sure.  It also looks like it could be creeping west, but it could just be a wobble.  

 
Ministry of Pain said:
From the gut...this SOB is gonna do a real close shave of Palm Beach but Vero Beach to Cape Canaveral is going to take a beating. If you live East of 95 and especially A1A, I don't think I would play games with it. I'm going to make a from the gut call sometime early tomorrow morning like the 5 am Update...I can get out from Jupiter to around Lake Okeechobee to Tampa and lots of friends and family. 

Batton down the hatches boys and girls, it's gonna get rough. Getting little squawls with a little bite to them right now...gone in 2 to 3 minutes but you can tell something is up...like a flock of birds trying to get out of the way.
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I'm in Palm Bay, close to Sebastian, new to the state. Should I evacuate? My family seems dead set on staying but my gut says otherwise...

 
Fox Scream said:
I'm in Palm Bay, close to Sebastian, new to the state. Should I evacuate? My family seems dead set on staying but my gut says otherwise...
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Your best bet is to head west for a few days. Been in FL since 2007, and if this was a category 1 or 2, I probably would have stayed in Stuart. If it regains category 4, or even somehow a category 5( unlikely, but this storm has been doing the unexpected) it's going to devastate the entire east coast of Florida.

 
Fox Scream said:
I'm in Palm Bay, close to Sebastian, new to the state. Should I evacuate? My family seems dead set on staying but my gut says otherwise...
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You are just under twenty feet elevation? I would gtfo if that's the case.  There will be a possible 10-15 foot surge with waves on top?  Yeah, that doesn't sound very safe to me.  Good luck.

 
Its begin strengthening quite a bit over the last few hours.  Don't try and be a hero.  Evacuate and tell your friends to evacuate.

 
I am about 60 miles north west of where it looks like it may make land fall.Lost two oaks when Charlie came through one of them took out my roof.I only have two oaks left sure hope they can take the wind sure don't want to have to replace another roof.I can deal with the power outage but a hole in the roof is a major pain in the butt.

 
Good Luck and God Bless to my fellow coasters in Florida and Carolina. Stay safe and stock up. - SID

 
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Fox Scream said:
I'm in Palm Bay, close to Sebastian, new to the state. Should I evacuate? My family seems dead set on staying but my gut says otherwise...
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Eminence aren't you from the Midwest? You don't know what you're doing. Get your folks out of there, go to a hotel inland.

 
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8am update, still at 125 mph maximum sustained winds but the pressure has dropped to 940 MB. Expect Matthew to become a Cat 4 again at some point today.

 
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