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*** Official 2016 AtlanticHurricane Season thread *** (3 Viewers)

Someone mentioned "most expensive storm in history".    Much of FL insurance policies are backed by the state.   They say it's healthy now, but this is going to wipe it out.   Insurance prices went up like crazy after 2004-2005, so I'm sure they will go up even more because of this.

 
Quez said:
Someone mentioned "most expensive storm in history".    Much of FL insurance policies are backed by the state.   They say it's healthy now, but this is going to wipe it out.   Insurance prices went up like crazy after 2004-2005, so I'm sure they will go up even more because of this.
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I think when you factor in a strong Cat4 possible Cat 5, hundreds of miles of shoreline, and a booming real estate market, it could be disastrous.

I was looking at the housing prices in Cocoa Beach.  They are insane.  

This is going to be devastating for a lot of people, and I don't know the financial repercussions, but there's a lot of very expensive real estate in the path of this storm. 

Hopefully the human casualties will be low, as there is plenty of warning to get outta there.

 
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shader said:
Updated GFS takes this a bit further inland once it hits the Space Coast.  Needless to say, that's not a good thing.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016100612&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=200

Hour 36 doesn't look good if you live in Jacksonville.
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This morning the other weather channel we get called AccuWeather showed a crazy amount of heavy storms all the way up into Maine along that front coming in.  Lots of red.  I have never seen anything like it and they didn't provide any explanation.  I am now wondering if this thing goes father west into S.C. if it has of shot of sending more trouble north.

 
soothsayer said:
I know this is easy to say from the upper midwest, but how can you consider staying? This thing is heading towards being a cat 5 (sustained winds already up to 140 per the last AF run). Evacuating may be inconvenient, but I honestly can't imagine how staying can offer any upside....
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I'm in Lakeland. It's outside the cone and showing about 60% chance of TS strength winds. 

 
Quez said:
Someone mentioned "most expensive storm in history".    Much of FL insurance policies are backed by the state.   They say it's healthy now, but this is going to wipe it out.   Insurance prices went up like crazy after 2004-2005, so I'm sure they will go up even more because of this.
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oooof

 
Quez said:
Someone mentioned "most expensive storm in history".    Much of FL insurance policies are backed by the state.   They say it's healthy now, but this is going to wipe it out.   Insurance prices went up like crazy after 2004-2005, so I'm sure they will go up even more because of this.
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That would be surprising to me because FL has dodged hurricanes for many many years now. I would think that the premiums already have the "this is the year we get hit!" part already baked in.

 
dutch said:
Good luck to you and your ref.
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Thanks!

we all boarded up.  We got food water and fuel for days.   So long as the roof holds up I think (hope) we will be fine.

went out with my daughter to the grocery store because we forgot paper plates.... ended up with $80 worth of carbs with them.   I took off 10 lbs putting upnthe shutters and inplan to put them back on.   No bread, no ice, and very little in the way of chips and beer.

now I'm at a local burger join for a final lunch out drinking a "category 3 IPA" from our local due south brewery.  Seems appropriate.

so long as I have power I'll keep younall updated.

 
Quez said:
Someone mentioned "most expensive storm in history".    Much of FL insurance policies are backed by the state.   They say it's healthy now, but this is going to wipe it out.   Insurance prices went up like crazy after 2004-2005, so I'm sure they will go up even more because of this.
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I'm calling BS on this one to a point so long as the money is truly segregated.  They have collected $4-$8K a year from every house in Florida and haven't paid out anything in 12 years.   They should already have billions set aside.

 
playin4beer said:
Friend of mine and her family are in Melbourne/Cocoa Beach area..  They didn't evacuate..  
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That is a really, really bad idea.  I hope they are inland a little bit.  Cocoa Beach is basically going to get leveled.

I think many people don't understand what a Cat 4 or a Cat 5 can do.

Cat 4:

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Cat 5:

Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

This doesn't even take into account the storm surge.

 
Went to the grocery store a couple times this morning here at Juno/Jupiter...just saw the first real wow type of squal that sent even the kite surfers fleeing. They have been outside all morning but I think that is about to end.

Cat 5 not off the table but this storm is now tracking 12+ mph so I believe it won't hang out long. The worst will be tonight about 2 am after the eye is actually slightly North of here. The backside is where I am more concerned for us until about 5 am and then it should be steady 40 to 60 until maybe 10 or perhaps Noon. Hoping to be BBQing by Sundown and getting ready for Canes Noles...good luck to my East Coasters...I think I am lucky to be one of the first to see it pass but I wouldn't want to be anywhere along the Space Coast or North Treasure Coast. If you are there best wishes and keep us updated

 
my father in law is in Cocoa Beach, within a couple of miles from the Indian River (mainland).  He is not evacuating, against my advice.

 
To all my Florida Facebook friends who post 72 degrees and sunny updates when there is a blizzard somewhere>Hi! 

 
Fox Scream said:
I'm in Palm Bay, close to Sebastian, new to the state. Should I evacuate? My family seems dead set on staying but my gut says otherwise...
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Just saw this but uh yeah I truly would not want to be much further North than where I am...if I were in Ft Laud I would be planning my day time events tomorrow but here things get a lot more dicey and then further still the more North you go up thru Cape Canaveral 

 
On top of metal shutter over the front door it also has 3 dead bolts....nothing is coming the front door. We are on the 3rd floor, we walked out to the ocean a little bit ago. Hoping to get a few looks between the bands...I gotta peak or run out to A1A once when this thing gets squirly. Waves were about 5 feet earlier...not sure where they will top at. I'm thinking we will see 10 to 15 foot surf before the sun sets tonight.

Hurrican Party in full force, Cigar City is sponsoring this event. Jai Alai I Alike a lot.

 
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Forgot to mention that driving home on I95 last night I saw a caravan of possibly 2 dozen utility worker trucks heading south. :thumbup:

 
3C's said:
Forgot to mention that driving home on I95 last night I saw a caravan of possibly 2 dozen utility worker trucks heading south. :thumbup:
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This really is a special group of people...they go anywhere help is needed.  I think it's pretty cool :thumbup:  

 
Structure of the storm is looking....weird.  A Recon mission is on the way for the first time in 3-4 hours (the last plane had technical problems and turned around). 

So soon we'll know what the pressure/winds are like.  I'd hate to hazard a guess, but from the presentation of the storm, I can't imagine that the winds have picked up.  

It's almost as if the Bahamas land interaction directly halted the rapid intensification that was happening.  Hopefully it never organizes itself enough to intensify any further, though there's still plenty of time over water for that.

 
shader said:
Structure of the storm is looking....weird.  A Recon mission is on the way for the first time in 3-4 hours (the last plane had technical problems and turned around). 

So soon we'll know what the pressure/winds are like.  I'd hate to hazard a guess, but from the presentation of the storm, I can't imagine that the winds have picked up.  

It's almost as if the Bahamas land interaction directly halted the rapid intensification that was happening.  Hopefully it never organizes itself enough to intensify any further, though there's still plenty of time over water for that.
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Kind of an unprecedented situation, that I can recall. The Recon plan malfunctions caused us to have a 4 hour (or more) delay in pressure/wind readings during a very important period of time.

With the new structure, some experts/bloggers are claiming that the current "double-eye" structure is the sign of a very powerful hurricane, others are saying it's an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

I think we're about 20-30 minutes from finding out.  Last known pressure was 939 with winds of 140. 

 
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