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*** Official 2016 AtlanticHurricane Season thread *** (1 Viewer)

This is from the NHC's 8am Public advisory 33A that just came out a few minutes ago...

Code: 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 77.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF NASSAU BAHAMAS
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
[B]MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES[/B]
 
I'm on the west coast of FL and the news is talking about how all the hotels here are booked solid. Crazy.

Be safe, people.

 
Usually sub 945 MB equates to a Cat 4, that and the way it's been dropping and the clear path over warm water makes me think Matthew wil be a Cat 4 this afternoon.

 
Penguin said:
This is from the NHC's 8am Public advisory 33A that just came out a few minutes ago...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 77.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF NASSAU BAHAMAS
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
Click to expand...

Yeah, I just saw that.  I saw those other readings on TV and they must have been using old information.   What was the lowest we have seen from Matthew? I remember seeing 932 when it was south of Haiti.  

 
Saffir-Simpson Scale


Saffir-Simpson
Category


Maximum sustained wind speed


Minimum surface pressure


Storm surge


mi/h


m/s


kt


mb


ft


m


1


74-95


33-42


64-82


greater than 980


3-5


1.0-1.7


2


96-110


43-49


83-95


979-965


6-8


1.8-2.6


3


111-130


50-58


96-113


964-945


9-12


2.7-3.8


4


131-155


59-69


114-135


944-920


13-18


3.9-5.6


5


156+


70+


136+


less than 920


19+


5.7+

 
PIK95 said:
Yeah, I just saw that.  I saw those other readings on TV and they must have been using old information.   What was the lowest we have seen from Matthew? I remember seeing 932 when it was south of Haiti.  
Click to expand...
8pm Monday til 8am Tuesday Matthew was at 934 MB

 
FLORIDA WIND GUSTS FORECAST (From NWS)

The situation continues to get worse by the minute. NWS is now calling for *sustained* winds of 100 MPH and *gusts* as high as 125 MPH from Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Melbourne, Titusville... and possibly as far north as Daytona Beach.

 
I'm kinda surprised people in Miami are not evacuating (or didnt).  I guess it would be too late at this point.  These things NEVER seem to end up where we think they will and they are still close enough where I would be nervous if I was there.

 My friend and his family were supposed to fly into Orlando this morning to go to Disney. They had a group rate flight for nineteen people through Southwest. They cancelled the trip yesterday morning, and now Southwest won't give them any sort of refund or even a credit. I'm really surprised at that.  He's an attorney so I suspect he will get something worked out but wow.

Has Disney closed yet?  I heard Shamoof was closing at 2:00 today, but Disney was staying open as of last night.  R.I.P. Space Mountain.  

 
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3C's said:
Some think this could get back up to Cat5 before reaching FL. :shock:
Click to expand...
I'm in that camp.  It's going to be close. I was curious to see if the back side of the storm spinning through Cuba again would slow it down at all.  I'm not sure if it's close enough though.

 
PIK95 said:
I'm in that camp.  It's going to be close. I was curious to see if the back side of the storm spinning through Cuba again would slow it down at all.  I'm not sure if it's close enough though.
Click to expand...
Conditions definitely favorable for strengthening over the next ~16 hours.

 
I'm in the boynton beach area and this is my first time through this.   I spent all day yesterday outing up shutters for my house and others and it's amazing how heavy and sharp they are.   I'm physically wrecked this AM.

there are gas stations that are out of gas everywhere and the ones that aren't have an hour wait.

gong to Home Depot to pick up some wing nuts was a third world experience.

 
The Ref said:
I'm in the boynton beach area and this is my first time through this.   I spent all day yesterday outing up shutters for my house and others and it's amazing how heavy and sharp they are.   I'm physically wrecked this AM.

there are gas stations that are out of gas everywhere and the ones that aren't have an hour wait.

gong to Home Depot to pick up some wing nuts was a third world experience.
Click to expand...
What's your elevation?  Road trip to Foxwoods?

 
You wake up in the morning to the sound of hammering and maybe some saw. You go outside and there is unusual traffic on your normally quiet street. You go to the grocery for water and the shelves have this weird USSR 1980s emptiness to them. You drive home and people have plywood in the backs of cars, gas stations are 4 deep. You get home, you wonder, where the hell is the box of flashlights and gas lamps. Where are the cards, board games and books, and damnit your forgot to get chips at the grocery. Your wife is freaking out because she's been watching the Weather Channel like a zombie for 2 hours. Yeah, good times.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
You wake up in the morning to the sound of hammering and maybe some saw. You go outside and there is unusual traffic on your normally quiet street. You go to the grocery for water and the shelves have this weird USSR 1980s emptiness to them. You drive home and people have plywood in the backs of cars, gas stations are 4 deep. You get home, you wonder, where the hell is the box of flashlights and gas lamps. Where are the cards, board games and books, and damnit your forgot to get chips at the grocery. Your wife is freaking out because she's been watching the Weather Channel like a zombie for 2 hours. Yeah, good times.
Click to expand...
Must be an eerie experience in the wait for the hurricane to hit.  The fact that you can see it coming for days must make it difficult to sleep.

 
The Ref said:
I'm in the boynton beach area and this is my first time through this.   I spent all day yesterday outing up shutters for my house and others and it's amazing how heavy and sharp they are.   I'm physically wrecked this AM.

there are gas stations that are out of gas everywhere and the ones that aren't have an hour wait.

gong to Home Depot to pick up some wing nuts was a third world experience.
Click to expand...
Good luck to you and your ref.

 
ive got a bunch of clients flying in tonight to Tampa from Indy...flying out tomorrow at 7:30 PM.  They're still full steam ahead...but I'm not sure they are seeing the latest. :unsure:

 
eoMMan said:
I'm on the west coast of FL and the news is talking about how all the hotels here are booked solid. Crazy.

Be safe, people.
Click to expand...
I live in palm beach county, less than a mile from the coast. I hauled ### out of there yesterday. Today I'm on the west coast, sitting in a lounge chair at the hotel pool with a beer in hand. 

 
I stayed up too late watching this thing.  The pressure has come down basically 20mb from sunset to sunrise. 

Like 3C's was saying, some predict it will bomb out to a Cat5 as it's rapidly intensifying right now and it's about to move over warm water and the jet stream, and it has 16 hours to go until it's first likely encounter with Florida.

But in any event, strong Cat4/weak Cat5, it's unbelievably dangerous.

The only real hope here is that this begins to pull away quicker than forecasted. The "loop" is a real thing, even the NHC is predicting it now.

Although this storm is going to cause extensive damage, if it stay just 5-10 miles offshore the whole way up, Florida would be spared the worst, as the worst of the winds are on the Eastern side of the storm.  

In any event, we are staring down the gun of what could be the most expensive and damaging hurricane in history, due to the sheer ferocity, the extensive build-up of infrastructure, and the fact that it's going to ride the coast for so long and affect so many different parts of Florida, GA and SC.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
 Your wife is freaking out because she's been watching the Weather Channel like a zombie for 2 hours. Yeah, good times.
Click to expand...
Truth.

I'm almost to the point I want to turn the damn Weather Channel off and watch an episode of Survivor or something....sheesh....I'm sick of seeing the same footage of that hotel in Exuma (that I have stayed at) sixteen times over the past few hours. 

 
E Street Brat said:
I'm on the fence right now. I'm in Lakeland but in mobile home.

After seeing what Charlie did. I'm leaning towards leaving.
Click to expand...
I know this is easy to say from the upper midwest, but how can you consider staying? This thing is heading towards being a cat 5 (sustained winds already up to 140 per the last AF run). Evacuating may be inconvenient, but I honestly can't imagine how staying can offer any upside....

 
PIK95 said:
I'm kinda surprised people in Miami are not evacuating (or didnt).  I guess it would be too late at this point.  These things NEVER seem to end up where we think they will and they are still close enough where I would be nervous if I was there.
Click to expand...
Live in Miami, less than a mile from the water but we are on a "high" point for this area. Concerned about a potential shift west but for the most part we have prepared like we are going to get something worse than what they are saying (Tropical Storm winds) for this area. Hurricane shutters are up, secured all of the outdoor furniture, have stocked up on everything imaginable. Quick note....went to the grocery after realizing we didn't have any K-Cups left  :shock:  and was also going to pick up some cereal also. Apparently Honey Bunches of Oats with Strawberries is the last type of cereal that will be left after the apocalypse. Pretty much all cereal was gone except for this kind. It was stacked 2 rows deep, just sitting there on the shelf amongst the rubble....LOL.

 
If you live anywhere that might see storm surge, I implore you to get out. As someone who saw water coming through the walls, there's no amount of stuff worth taking that risk. Stay safe and good luck.

 
Yup.  Storm surge will drown you and possibly even take your bloated body out to sea (if it's not trapped inside the walls of your flooded to the ceiling home).  

Google the Galveston TX. hurricane about the orphanage that tried to ride it out.  Check out the 38 storm where they found bodies buried under the sand with  the owners dogs.  

Don't mess around if you are under twenty feet.  GTFO!  Even if you have nowhere to go, just put your valuable silver in the trunk and ride west.  Rant over.

 
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Recon plane that was heading out had mechanical difficulties and turned back.  Likely a couple hours until we get updated pressure/winds info.  

 
I am all for evacuating but my wife likes to stay "in case something happens to the house".   I am about 100 mile in from the NC coast but let me tell you, it is scary as hell in the dark with high winds hearing them pound your house and the noises the house makes are not pleasant. 

 
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