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*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter chet
- Start date
chet
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
shuke said:
Gotta get capping here as soon as I get the brisket started
Will probably do a couple Pick 4s and play some Tris
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
wrote this up a few days ago...finally got around to posting
[SIZE=11.5pt]1. Ocho Ocho Ocho[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – didn’t think much of him…drawing the 1 makes him a clear X for me[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]2. Carpe Diem[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] –I’m a bit skeptical of this one…speed figures are nothing special. Tampa Bay Derby usually doesn't impress me and the Bluegrass has gone back to dirt but I’m not really sure what he beat. Yet another top contender who wants the lead and pulls away. Race Replays didn't offer much. Pletcher doesn't exactly have a stellar Derby Record. I don’t like this post for him since I think he’s either forced to the lead or gets swallowed up and I don’t think he’s good enough to win from either pace scenario. Probably have to include him for 3rd...if he finishes higher so be it[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]3. Materiality[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – very lightly raced but with some big figures. Sire took 3[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]rd[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] in Derby and went on to win the Preakness and Belmont, although he hasn't produced much of note. Think the light foundation is the bigger concern for me than him getting the distance. Yet another front running favorite though and Gulfstream always seems to play like the horses are running on a conveyor belt. Definitely some questions but seems to be more talented than most and should offer some value. Don’t really like the post for him. Has enough question marks that I probably don’t play him to win, but can make a case for playing 2nd [/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]4. Tencendur[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – big speed figure last out in Wood but not much else. Still not sure what to do with him but leaning towards tossing or playing for 4th[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]5. Danzig Moon[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – took 3 races to break his maiden and has finished well behind Carpe Diem in both of his stakes races. Meh. EDIT: reportedly training VERY well and pedigree seems solid enough. At 30-1 may be worth playing all over in some capacity[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]6. Mubtaahij[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – I’m usually quick to dismiss the UAE Derby winner but I think this one might be different. Speed figures look a tad light but he has 2 wins at 1 3/16 miles so the distance shouldn't be an issue. finally a horse that doesn't mind coming from off the pace. Not sure he’s fast enough to win but should come running at the end so I think he’s worth playing in 2[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]nd[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] and maybe for the W on some backups.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]7. El Kabeir[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – despite hitting the board in 8/9 races I’m just not that impressed by him. I think he’s severely outclassed here and was just beating up on a weak NY circuit. Does have a Win in lone race at CD though with Borel as the jock and that’s who he’s picked up for the Derby. I don't think he has any magic left and will be overbet due to the Borel angle. Too early to fully rule anyone out and could maybe creep onto my tickets as a bomb, but initial thoughts are toss. EDIT: has shown a versatile running style so likely will be OK with any pace scenario[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]8. Dortmund[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – another freak putting up big speed figured. His daddy romped in the Derby. Undefeated and while his races have been a little closer than AP’s I think the competition may have been a little tougher. Have basically the same concerns I do with AP, and even more so since it sounds like he’s a massive horse and could have an even tougher time with traffic if he finds it, but if he a gets a clean tip with those big strides in the stretch he’s gonna be tough to beat. Also like the way he fought back against Firing Line in the Lewis. California horses have also faired pretty well in recent years. Have to play everywhere[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]9. Bolo[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – couple of turf wins and a couple of 3rds on dirt well behind Dortmund both times. Don't really see any angle where I don't toss him but there’s still a lot of info to digest so maybe I’ll find something. Edit: Pedigree is actually pretty good and lost a lot of ground in in SA Derby…have to consider for 3rd…maybe even 2nd on some tickets[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]10. Firing Line[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – Romped in the Sunland after a few close loses to Dortmund out in Santa Anita. Also seems to be training extremely well, but I’m skeptical he can get 10F. probably going to take a stand against him winning but will consider for 3rd/4th as I think he’s in a position to be the pacesetter. Maybe play higher on some backups just in case.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]11. Stanford[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – cant find much to say about him. I know he has different owners for every horse but I wonder if Pletcher sends this one as a rabbit? Appears to be in good form but unless I find something compelling about him a likely toss…maybe sneaks on 4th for Super tix[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]12. International Star[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – well bred with Derby winning sire but speed figures are nothing special aside from some slight progression each race (but at least they’re improving). Definitely a 2[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]nd[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] (or 3[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]rd[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt]) Tier horse in this field but running style may allow him to hit the board if there’s a fast pace (not so sure there will be though). [/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]13. Itsaknockout [/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt]– meh. toss[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]14. Keen Ice [/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt]– after missing Tri’s the last few years because of some late running closer I think I’m going to play him as high as 2nd. Maybe a waste of money but if I end up not cashing because he comes flying late and gets up for 2nd I’d be absolutely sick[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]15. Frosted[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – couldn't get it done at Gulfsteam and went on to win the Wood with a big effort. I don't really think much of the competition there and NY horses haven’t fared exceptionally well recently (although Wicked Strong did get up for 4[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]th[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] last year and I liked him a lot). I’m not sure he’s really a true closer but as a stalker type he may get a chance to make some noise. On the fence with him at this point. Workouts have been nothing special…more talented than a lot of the field so probably consider for 3rd but don’t think I can play him any higher[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]16. War Story[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – meh. toss[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]17. Mr. Z[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – oof. toss[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]18. American Pharoah[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – fast as hell and has looked like an easy winner in all of his wins (only loss was maiden sprint on poly at Del Mar). Sire finished 2[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]nd[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] behind Mine That Turd so don't think distance should be an issue. only knock is that he’s gone wire to wire in all of his races in relatively small fields of 8 or 9, so not sure how he might handle being bottled up in a 20 horse field. Not much value in what figures to be a 3-1 or 4-1 type favorite or co-favorite, but based on talent I think you have to play him everywhere. Should get a clean trip from 18. May be forced wide but he’s so damn good. Lotta outside wins lately…my key horse[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]19. Upstart[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – has hit the board in all 7 starts (DQ’d to 2[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]nd[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] in the FOY) with some pretty big speed figures. Near the lead in all his races but doesn't appear that he needs to be the leader. Gonna do a deeper dive into his replays. Has run well at several different tracks but most recently at Gulfsteam (I saw on DRF they said it’s a tiring surface…I always thought it played fast but maybe I’m confusing it with another track?). could get a piece at double digit odds. Training well…maybe play has high as 1st[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]20. Far Right[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – speed figures are pretty low but has hit the board in all 3 starts at CD. No idea on sire…will have to check into that (EDIT: looks to have very solid distance pedigree). late closing type may be worth including on bottom of tickets[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]21. Frammento[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – I havent really looked at him much but first glance I don’t see anything compelling[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]Prediction[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]18. American Pharoah[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]6. Mubtaahij[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]8. Dortmund[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]14. Keen Ice[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]i'll be heavy on tri's involving my top 3...probably a few savers with some other win options. will post final tickets later[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]1. Ocho Ocho Ocho[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – didn’t think much of him…drawing the 1 makes him a clear X for me[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]2. Carpe Diem[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] –I’m a bit skeptical of this one…speed figures are nothing special. Tampa Bay Derby usually doesn't impress me and the Bluegrass has gone back to dirt but I’m not really sure what he beat. Yet another top contender who wants the lead and pulls away. Race Replays didn't offer much. Pletcher doesn't exactly have a stellar Derby Record. I don’t like this post for him since I think he’s either forced to the lead or gets swallowed up and I don’t think he’s good enough to win from either pace scenario. Probably have to include him for 3rd...if he finishes higher so be it[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]3. Materiality[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – very lightly raced but with some big figures. Sire took 3[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]rd[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] in Derby and went on to win the Preakness and Belmont, although he hasn't produced much of note. Think the light foundation is the bigger concern for me than him getting the distance. Yet another front running favorite though and Gulfstream always seems to play like the horses are running on a conveyor belt. Definitely some questions but seems to be more talented than most and should offer some value. Don’t really like the post for him. Has enough question marks that I probably don’t play him to win, but can make a case for playing 2nd [/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]4. Tencendur[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – big speed figure last out in Wood but not much else. Still not sure what to do with him but leaning towards tossing or playing for 4th[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]5. Danzig Moon[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – took 3 races to break his maiden and has finished well behind Carpe Diem in both of his stakes races. Meh. EDIT: reportedly training VERY well and pedigree seems solid enough. At 30-1 may be worth playing all over in some capacity[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]6. Mubtaahij[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – I’m usually quick to dismiss the UAE Derby winner but I think this one might be different. Speed figures look a tad light but he has 2 wins at 1 3/16 miles so the distance shouldn't be an issue. finally a horse that doesn't mind coming from off the pace. Not sure he’s fast enough to win but should come running at the end so I think he’s worth playing in 2[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]nd[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] and maybe for the W on some backups.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]8. Dortmund[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – another freak putting up big speed figured. His daddy romped in the Derby. Undefeated and while his races have been a little closer than AP’s I think the competition may have been a little tougher. Have basically the same concerns I do with AP, and even more so since it sounds like he’s a massive horse and could have an even tougher time with traffic if he finds it, but if he a gets a clean tip with those big strides in the stretch he’s gonna be tough to beat. Also like the way he fought back against Firing Line in the Lewis. California horses have also faired pretty well in recent years. Have to play everywhere[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]9. Bolo[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – couple of turf wins and a couple of 3rds on dirt well behind Dortmund both times. Don't really see any angle where I don't toss him but there’s still a lot of info to digest so maybe I’ll find something. Edit: Pedigree is actually pretty good and lost a lot of ground in in SA Derby…have to consider for 3rd…maybe even 2nd on some tickets[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]10. Firing Line[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – Romped in the Sunland after a few close loses to Dortmund out in Santa Anita. Also seems to be training extremely well, but I’m skeptical he can get 10F. probably going to take a stand against him winning but will consider for 3rd/4th as I think he’s in a position to be the pacesetter. Maybe play higher on some backups just in case.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]12. International Star[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – well bred with Derby winning sire but speed figures are nothing special aside from some slight progression each race (but at least they’re improving). Definitely a 2[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]nd[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] (or 3[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]rd[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt]) Tier horse in this field but running style may allow him to hit the board if there’s a fast pace (not so sure there will be though). [/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]13. Itsaknockout [/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt]– meh. toss[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]14. Keen Ice [/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt]– after missing Tri’s the last few years because of some late running closer I think I’m going to play him as high as 2nd. Maybe a waste of money but if I end up not cashing because he comes flying late and gets up for 2nd I’d be absolutely sick[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]15. Frosted[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – couldn't get it done at Gulfsteam and went on to win the Wood with a big effort. I don't really think much of the competition there and NY horses haven’t fared exceptionally well recently (although Wicked Strong did get up for 4[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]th[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] last year and I liked him a lot). I’m not sure he’s really a true closer but as a stalker type he may get a chance to make some noise. On the fence with him at this point. Workouts have been nothing special…more talented than a lot of the field so probably consider for 3rd but don’t think I can play him any higher[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]16. War Story[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – meh. toss[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]17. Mr. Z[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – oof. toss[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]18. American Pharoah[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – fast as hell and has looked like an easy winner in all of his wins (only loss was maiden sprint on poly at Del Mar). Sire finished 2[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]nd[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] behind Mine That Turd so don't think distance should be an issue. only knock is that he’s gone wire to wire in all of his races in relatively small fields of 8 or 9, so not sure how he might handle being bottled up in a 20 horse field. Not much value in what figures to be a 3-1 or 4-1 type favorite or co-favorite, but based on talent I think you have to play him everywhere. Should get a clean trip from 18. May be forced wide but he’s so damn good. Lotta outside wins lately…my key horse[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]19. Upstart[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – has hit the board in all 7 starts (DQ’d to 2[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt]nd[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] in the FOY) with some pretty big speed figures. Near the lead in all his races but doesn't appear that he needs to be the leader. Gonna do a deeper dive into his replays. Has run well at several different tracks but most recently at Gulfsteam (I saw on DRF they said it’s a tiring surface…I always thought it played fast but maybe I’m confusing it with another track?). could get a piece at double digit odds. Training well…maybe play has high as 1st[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]20. Far Right[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – speed figures are pretty low but has hit the board in all 3 starts at CD. No idea on sire…will have to check into that (EDIT: looks to have very solid distance pedigree). late closing type may be worth including on bottom of tickets[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]21. Frammento[/SIZE][SIZE=11.5pt] – I havent really looked at him much but first glance I don’t see anything compelling[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]Prediction[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]18. American Pharoah[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]6. Mubtaahij[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]8. Dortmund[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]14. Keen Ice[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11.5pt]i'll be heavy on tri's involving my top 3...probably a few savers with some other win options. will post final tickets later[/SIZE]
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Looks like we might have a 99-1 shot going.Leroy Hoard said:
southeastjerome
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Seeing International Star scratched too.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Subtle but maybe important as to the loading of everyone else. 1 & 13 now to be loaded first, 10 & 21 last?
Last edited by a moderator:
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
#### these ####### scratches.....####. Going back to OTB. Will sub out Frosted for International Star. Will also add ATB on Danzig Moon
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Good luck to all, off now to:
a: bet (mainly #8 Dortmund with a few stray tickets on the 2,9,15)
b: get plastered
a: bet (mainly #8 Dortmund with a few stray tickets on the 2,9,15)
b: get plastered
soothsayer
Footballguy
I really feel like the pace is going to be hot and things are going to fall apart in the home stretch. One of the speed horses may hang around to get on the board, but I've got an investment in the closers today - Keen Ice, Frosted and Far Right (I had International Star in there instead of Keen Ice until IS scratched). I also think of all the stalkers, Mubtaahij has the best chance of staying strong and winning this thing. Invested in him as well.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Here is the entire segment. About a half hour. You should listen to this if you're a serious player.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
With International Star out, a horse I really liked in my trifecta, I need to spread out my ticket a bit more. That'll come at the cost of putting Pharoah on top of the ticket...I dunno - I might pull back on the trifecta betting and use exactas instead (all excluding Pharoah).
current ticket:
6, 8 over
6, 8, 10, 15, 18, 19 over
6, 8, 10, 15, 18, 19, 2, 3, 5, 9 ($80 trifecta)
$20 win 8
current ticket:
6, 8 over
6, 8, 10, 15, 18, 19 over
6, 8, 10, 15, 18, 19, 2, 3, 5, 9 ($80 trifecta)
$20 win 8
Went with only two bets. Like Dortmund overall. The two favorites really deserve to be favorites and there's just too much going in Dortmund's favor here, from post position to length of the race.
$25.00 to win on 8.
$1.00 trifecta 8, 18 w/2, 3, 6, 8, 18, 20 w/ 2, 3, 6, 8, 18, 20 ($40.00 ticket.) Really hoping AP flames out in the stretch but I needed to include him.
$25.00 to win on 8.
$1.00 trifecta 8, 18 w/2, 3, 6, 8, 18, 20 w/ 2, 3, 6, 8, 18, 20 ($40.00 ticket.) Really hoping AP flames out in the stretch but I needed to include him.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I listened to this spot and it was really good
RN there isn't ordio of that available anywhere like youtube is there?
-QG
Brady Marino
Footballguy
I am having trouble getting past the fact that Dortmund beat Firing Line by just a head not once, but twice. I think it could come down to them again.
The fast track will help American Pharaoh, but I see Upstart challenging him for position from the go. Like them both, but think they will fall a bit short to the 8 and 10 horses.
$10 acc on 8 and 10
$2 EB on 8, 10, 18, 19.
$2 TB on the same horses.
Disclaimer: I usually am a total ### in these things.
The fast track will help American Pharaoh, but I see Upstart challenging him for position from the go. Like them both, but think they will fall a bit short to the 8 and 10 horses.
$10 acc on 8 and 10
$2 EB on 8, 10, 18, 19.
$2 TB on the same horses.
Disclaimer: I usually am a total ### in these things.
thanks for the link.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Okay - hope I don't beat myself up over swapping the 6 out for the favorite in most of these.
$2 ATB on 5 Danzig Moon. Cuz it's good jersey kharma to bet on Danzig ($6)
$2 win on 9 Bolo cuz I wanted to get the total bet up to a nice round $66 ($2)
$1 exacta box on 1-5 cuz as a Bengals fan I have to have the Ocho horse figure in somewhere ($2)
$1 exacta box on 5-9-14-15-18 right mix of favorite with live closers ($20)
$1 exacta box on 6-15 since I swapped him out late ($2)
$1 exacta box on 6-18 for the same reason ($2)
$1 exacta box on 6-9 because I'm immature ($2)
50 cent trifecta box on 5-9-14-15-18 for the reasons above ($30)
-QG
$2 ATB on 5 Danzig Moon. Cuz it's good jersey kharma to bet on Danzig ($6)
$2 win on 9 Bolo cuz I wanted to get the total bet up to a nice round $66 ($2)
$1 exacta box on 1-5 cuz as a Bengals fan I have to have the Ocho horse figure in somewhere ($2)
$1 exacta box on 5-9-14-15-18 right mix of favorite with live closers ($20)
$1 exacta box on 6-15 since I swapped him out late ($2)
$1 exacta box on 6-18 for the same reason ($2)
$1 exacta box on 6-9 because I'm immature ($2)
50 cent trifecta box on 5-9-14-15-18 for the reasons above ($30)
-QG
-jb-
Footballguy
My crew has thrown some decent money on him just to support our buddy, but I can't possibly believe it would move the needle THAT much.
bshell27
Footballguy
bshell27
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Brady Marino
Footballguy
If you have cable, NBC Sports Extra may have it.
Danzig Moon to win please.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
And the chalk spoils all the fun.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Brady Marino
Footballguy
Whiffed on the win, but got place, show, exacta, and trifecta! This never happens!
Buying a lottery ticket tonight.Similar threads
