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*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (1 Viewer)

Dan Lambskin said:
UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij took a lot of money in the last future pool...could go off at single digit odds
Click to expand...
Going to be very interesting. That was an Arazi like move. And it was on dirt. 2 wins at 1 3/16 miles, Dubai Millennium and Seeking the Gold in his bloodlines, etc. The question is how he ships. I'll be watching the workout reports very closely. Hopefully he comes to CD early. He was nominated, so connections thought enough of him. Question was what was he really facing.

Dortmund couldn't have been more impressive yesterday. Only question is he's so big will he be nimble enough to navigate a rough, 20 horse rodeo. He won't get the trips he's been getting. Showing he can rate a little bit if needed. I think he's the real deal, and only a bad post/trip will stop him from running huge. American Pharoah is the wise guy horse, supposedly finishing better than Dortmund. Thought Carpe Diem ran really well yesterday - against what I'm not sure. Don't like the first 2 out of the Wood. El Kabbir could grind out and finish a 3rd/4th/5th but don't like him much either.

I wasn't that excited about this year but the cream is rising to the top just like it does every year. Should be a great race.

 
Carpe Diem is interesting due to the track changes at Keeneland. Major moves going back to 4 weeks before the KD & changing back to dirt with what is supposed to be a state of the art drain system that did seem to work well over the weekend.

 
So theoretically if my dream wish of California Chrome running this race could happen. Would it be totally unfair and that horse would be at a massive edge due to being older and more experienced? I guess I don't even know when horses "peak".

 
Top contenders for the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby are listed in order of preference, with comments provided by Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert of The New York Times. Churchill Downs recently adopted a point system to determine the Derby field, with points being earned by the top four finishers in designated prep races. The odds are from the Churchill Downs futures pool, and the records are starts-win-place-show. An article on Saturday’s Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby can be found here.

1. Dortmund

Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Martin Garcia

Record: 6-6-0-0 Points: 170 Odds: 6-1

J.D.: There’s no knocking this guy. He’s gotten better each outing, and only illness, injury or a bad post position could slow him down.

M.H.: He crushed a talented Santa Anita field, winning by four and a quarter lengths, and like his father, Big Brown, he will enter the Derby with a perfect record and the deserving title of favorite.

Next: Kentucky Derby on May 2.

2. Firing Line

Trainer: Simon Callaghan Jockey: Gary Stevens
Record: 5-2-3-0 Points: 58 Odds: 13-1

J.D.: He finished behind the top choice by a head twice before going to New Mexico to win the Sunland Derby. That’s enough for me to make him the second choice.

M.H.: The runner-up to Dortmund in the Robert B. Lewis, this speedy colt showed in the Sunland Derby that he could win with ease once free of his shadow. Of course, that won’t be the case in the Derby.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

3. American Pharoah

Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Victor Espinoza

Record: 4-3-0-0 Points: 60 Odds: 5-1

J.D.: Word on the Santa Anita backside is that American Pharoah, last year’s 2-year-old champion, is training even better than his stable mate, Dortmund. The Baffert barn is loaded.

M.H.: The son of Pioneerof the Nile overcame a stumble and a displaced shoe to impressively win the Rebel in the slop. All eyes will be on his next race to see if his form holds up.

Next: Arkansas Derby on Saturday.

4. Carpe Diem

Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez

Record: 5-4-1-0 Points: 164 Odds: 10-1

J.D.: He appeared to win the Bluegrass with energy to spare and is the only real threat from the East. He is going to like the Derby’s mile-and-a-quarter distance.

M.H.: The Blue Grass winner has shown that he deserves to be in the conversation with Baffert’s big guns. Still, he didn’t pull away from the field as much as I expected; Dortmund looked more dominant.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

5. Materiality

Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez

Record: 3-3-0-0 Points: 100 Odds: 12-1

J.D.: Materiality, the Florida Derby champ, is trying to do an awful a lot in a little time. I’m betting against his winning the Run for the Roses on so little foundation.

M.H.: The son of Afleet Alex, he looked impressive in staying perfect in the Florida Derby. But long odds remain: Since 1882, no horse has won the Derby without racing at 2.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

6. Upstart

Trainer: Rick Violette Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Record: 7-3-3-1 Points: 76 Odds: 18-1



J.D.: Melissa likes this horse better than I do. I think we’ve already seen his best.

M.H.: The New York-bred Upstart posted a career-best 108 Beyer speed figure in finishing second in the Florida Derby. He has never really run a bad race, but will he regress?

Next: Kentucky Derby.

7. International Star

Trainer: Mike Maker Jockey: Miguel Mena

Record: 9-5-2-0 Points: 171 Odds: 17-1

J.D.: Sterling résumé, but not all that respected. All this guy does is win. He’s on my tickets, and at 17-1 on Derby day, pound it with both hands.

M.H.: International Star, the son of Fusaichi Pegasus, swept the Fair Grounds prep races (the LeComte, the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby), giving him the most points. He also progressed in all three.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

8. Frosted

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: Joel Rosario

Record: 7-2-4-0 Points: 113 Odds: 40-1

J.D.: Frosted ran himself back into the conversation with an impressive score in the Wood Memorial. I still think he’s more a pretender than a contender.

M.H.: After flopping in the Fountain of Youth, the colt had a throat procedure and appears to have rebounded in a big way, winning the Wood by two lengths while earning a 103 Beyer speed figure. Still a bit of a question mark, but I liked what I saw.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

9. Mubtaahij

Trainer: Mike de Kock Jockey: Christophe Soumillon

Record: 7-4-1-0 Points: 100 Odds: 8-1

J.D.: I’ve watched the U.A.E. Derby replays a dozen times, and he looks like the real deal. He might be the first desert-based horse to hit the board.

M.H.: Won the U.A.E. Derby by an impressive eight lengths, setting Twitter abuzz. But will he be able to bounce back in five weeks and after being shipped overseas?

Next: Kentucky Derby.

10. El Kabeir

Trainer: John Terranova Jockey: C. C. Lopez

Record: 9-4-2-2 Points: 95 Odds: 18-1

J.D.: Meet your West Virginia Derby winner.

M.H.: The Gotham winner was last with a half-mile left but rallied to finish third in the Wood Memorial, suggesting that he still has some fight. Lopez, though, most likely lost the mount. If Calvin Borel takes over, he could be a nice upset pick.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

 
Dortmund and Carpe Diem were both impressive over the weekend.

I love the look of Dortmund, huge muscular horse. imo he will be the clear favorite in the derby as of now, depends what American Pharoah does this weekend in the Arkansas Derby.

According to Baffert: Dortmund lost a shoe at the start of the SA derby, pretty impressive to still win a race the way he did and of that caliber with a missing shoe.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Top contenders for the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby are listed in order of preference, with comments provided by Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert of The New York Times. Churchill Downs recently adopted a point system to determine the Derby field, with points being earned by the top four finishers in designated prep races. The odds are from the Churchill Downs futures pool, and the records are starts-win-place-show. An article on Saturday’s Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby can be found here.

1. Dortmund

Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Martin Garcia

Record: 6-6-0-0 Points: 170 Odds: 6-1

J.D.: There’s no knocking this guy. He’s gotten better each outing, and only illness, injury or a bad post position could slow him down.

M.H.: He crushed a talented Santa Anita field, winning by four and a quarter lengths, and like his father, Big Brown, he will enter the Derby with a perfect record and the deserving title of favorite.

Next: Kentucky Derby on May 2.

2. Firing Line

Trainer: Simon Callaghan Jockey: Gary Stevens
Record: 5-2-3-0 Points: 58 Odds: 13-1

J.D.: He finished behind the top choice by a head twice before going to New Mexico to win the Sunland Derby. That’s enough for me to make him the second choice.

M.H.: The runner-up to Dortmund in the Robert B. Lewis, this speedy colt showed in the Sunland Derby that he could win with ease once free of his shadow. Of course, that won’t be the case in the Derby.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

3. American Pharoah

Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Victor Espinoza

Record: 4-3-0-0 Points: 60 Odds: 5-1

J.D.: Word on the Santa Anita backside is that American Pharoah, last year’s 2-year-old champion, is training even better than his stable mate, Dortmund. The Baffert barn is loaded.

M.H.: The son of Pioneerof the Nile overcame a stumble and a displaced shoe to impressively win the Rebel in the slop. All eyes will be on his next race to see if his form holds up.

Next: Arkansas Derby on Saturday.

4. Carpe Diem

Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez

Record: 5-4-1-0 Points: 164 Odds: 10-1

J.D.: He appeared to win the Bluegrass with energy to spare and is the only real threat from the East. He is going to like the Derby’s mile-and-a-quarter distance.

M.H.: The Blue Grass winner has shown that he deserves to be in the conversation with Baffert’s big guns. Still, he didn’t pull away from the field as much as I expected; Dortmund looked more dominant.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

5. Materiality

Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez

Record: 3-3-0-0 Points: 100 Odds: 12-1

J.D.: Materiality, the Florida Derby champ, is trying to do an awful a lot in a little time. I’m betting against his winning the Run for the Roses on so little foundation.

M.H.: The son of Afleet Alex, he looked impressive in staying perfect in the Florida Derby. But long odds remain: Since 1882, no horse has won the Derby without racing at 2.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

6. Upstart

Trainer: Rick Violette Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Record: 7-3-3-1 Points: 76 Odds: 18-1



J.D.: Melissa likes this horse better than I do. I think we’ve already seen his best.

M.H.: The New York-bred Upstart posted a career-best 108 Beyer speed figure in finishing second in the Florida Derby. He has never really run a bad race, but will he regress?

Next: Kentucky Derby.

7. International Star

Trainer: Mike Maker Jockey: Miguel Mena

Record: 9-5-2-0 Points: 171 Odds: 17-1

J.D.: Sterling résumé, but not all that respected. All this guy does is win. He’s on my tickets, and at 17-1 on Derby day, pound it with both hands.

M.H.: International Star, the son of Fusaichi Pegasus, swept the Fair Grounds prep races (the LeComte, the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby), giving him the most points. He also progressed in all three.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

8. Frosted

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: Joel Rosario

Record: 7-2-4-0 Points: 113 Odds: 40-1

J.D.: Frosted ran himself back into the conversation with an impressive score in the Wood Memorial. I still think he’s more a pretender than a contender.

M.H.: After flopping in the Fountain of Youth, the colt had a throat procedure and appears to have rebounded in a big way, winning the Wood by two lengths while earning a 103 Beyer speed figure. Still a bit of a question mark, but I liked what I saw.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

9. Mubtaahij

Trainer: Mike de Kock Jockey: Christophe Soumillon

Record: 7-4-1-0 Points: 100 Odds: 8-1

J.D.: I’ve watched the U.A.E. Derby replays a dozen times, and he looks like the real deal. He might be the first desert-based horse to hit the board.

M.H.: Won the U.A.E. Derby by an impressive eight lengths, setting Twitter abuzz. But will he be able to bounce back in five weeks and after being shipped overseas?

Next: Kentucky Derby.

10. El Kabeir

Trainer: John Terranova Jockey: C. C. Lopez

Record: 9-4-2-2 Points: 95 Odds: 18-1

J.D.: Meet your West Virginia Derby winner.

M.H.: The Gotham winner was last with a half-mile left but rallied to finish third in the Wood Memorial, suggesting that he still has some fight. Lopez, though, most likely lost the mount. If Calvin Borel takes over, he could be a nice upset pick.

Next: Kentucky Derby.
Click to expand...
Good catch on Firing Line. Is the long layoff important?

 
bshell27 said:
Leroy Hoard said:
Top contenders for the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby are listed in order of preference, with comments provided by Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert of The New York Times. Churchill Downs recently adopted a point system to determine the Derby field, with points being earned by the top four finishers in designated prep races. The odds are from the Churchill Downs futures pool, and the records are starts-win-place-show. An article on Saturday’s Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby can be found here.

1. Dortmund

Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Martin Garcia

Record: 6-6-0-0 Points: 170 Odds: 6-1

J.D.: There’s no knocking this guy. He’s gotten better each outing, and only illness, injury or a bad post position could slow him down.

M.H.: He crushed a talented Santa Anita field, winning by four and a quarter lengths, and like his father, Big Brown, he will enter the Derby with a perfect record and the deserving title of favorite.

Next: Kentucky Derby on May 2.

2. Firing Line

Trainer: Simon Callaghan Jockey: Gary Stevens
Record: 5-2-3-0 Points: 58 Odds: 13-1

J.D.: He finished behind the top choice by a head twice before going to New Mexico to win the Sunland Derby. That’s enough for me to make him the second choice.

M.H.: The runner-up to Dortmund in the Robert B. Lewis, this speedy colt showed in the Sunland Derby that he could win with ease once free of his shadow. Of course, that won’t be the case in the Derby.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

3. American Pharoah

Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Victor Espinoza

Record: 4-3-0-0 Points: 60 Odds: 5-1

J.D.: Word on the Santa Anita backside is that American Pharoah, last year’s 2-year-old champion, is training even better than his stable mate, Dortmund. The Baffert barn is loaded.

M.H.: The son of Pioneerof the Nile overcame a stumble and a displaced shoe to impressively win the Rebel in the slop. All eyes will be on his next race to see if his form holds up.

Next: Arkansas Derby on Saturday.

4. Carpe Diem

Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez

Record: 5-4-1-0 Points: 164 Odds: 10-1

J.D.: He appeared to win the Bluegrass with energy to spare and is the only real threat from the East. He is going to like the Derby’s mile-and-a-quarter distance.

M.H.: The Blue Grass winner has shown that he deserves to be in the conversation with Baffert’s big guns. Still, he didn’t pull away from the field as much as I expected; Dortmund looked more dominant.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

5. Materiality

Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez

Record: 3-3-0-0 Points: 100 Odds: 12-1

J.D.: Materiality, the Florida Derby champ, is trying to do an awful a lot in a little time. I’m betting against his winning the Run for the Roses on so little foundation.

M.H.: The son of Afleet Alex, he looked impressive in staying perfect in the Florida Derby. But long odds remain: Since 1882, no horse has won the Derby without racing at 2.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

6. Upstart

Trainer: Rick Violette Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Record: 7-3-3-1 Points: 76 Odds: 18-1



J.D.: Melissa likes this horse better than I do. I think we’ve already seen his best.

M.H.: The New York-bred Upstart posted a career-best 108 Beyer speed figure in finishing second in the Florida Derby. He has never really run a bad race, but will he regress?

Next: Kentucky Derby.

7. International Star

Trainer: Mike Maker Jockey: Miguel Mena

Record: 9-5-2-0 Points: 171 Odds: 17-1

J.D.: Sterling résumé, but not all that respected. All this guy does is win. He’s on my tickets, and at 17-1 on Derby day, pound it with both hands.

M.H.: International Star, the son of Fusaichi Pegasus, swept the Fair Grounds prep races (the LeComte, the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby), giving him the most points. He also progressed in all three.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

8. Frosted

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: Joel Rosario

Record: 7-2-4-0 Points: 113 Odds: 40-1

J.D.: Frosted ran himself back into the conversation with an impressive score in the Wood Memorial. I still think he’s more a pretender than a contender.

M.H.: After flopping in the Fountain of Youth, the colt had a throat procedure and appears to have rebounded in a big way, winning the Wood by two lengths while earning a 103 Beyer speed figure. Still a bit of a question mark, but I liked what I saw.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

9. Mubtaahij

Trainer: Mike de Kock Jockey: Christophe Soumillon

Record: 7-4-1-0 Points: 100 Odds: 8-1

J.D.: I’ve watched the U.A.E. Derby replays a dozen times, and he looks like the real deal. He might be the first desert-based horse to hit the board.

M.H.: Won the U.A.E. Derby by an impressive eight lengths, setting Twitter abuzz. But will he be able to bounce back in five weeks and after being shipped overseas?

Next: Kentucky Derby.

10. El Kabeir

Trainer: John Terranova Jockey: C. C. Lopez

Record: 9-4-2-2 Points: 95 Odds: 18-1

J.D.: Meet your West Virginia Derby winner.

M.H.: The Gotham winner was last with a half-mile left but rallied to finish third in the Wood Memorial, suggesting that he still has some fight. Lopez, though, most likely lost the mount. If Calvin Borel takes over, he could be a nice upset pick.

Next: Kentucky Derby.
Click to expand...
Good catch on Firing Line. Is the long layoff important?
Click to expand...
I've seen a reference to 'long layoff' a few times in here. If we're talking about Firing Line, he last raced March 22, winning the Sunland and punching his ticket to the Derby. He'll get plenty of works in before the Derby. I wouldn't characterize this as a 'long layoff' by any stretch.

 
General Malaise said:
bshell27 said:
Leroy Hoard said:
Top contenders for the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby are listed in order of preference, with comments provided by Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert of The New York Times. Churchill Downs recently adopted a point system to determine the Derby field, with points being earned by the top four finishers in designated prep races. The odds are from the Churchill Downs futures pool, and the records are starts-win-place-show. An article on Saturday’s Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby can be found here.

1. Dortmund

Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Martin Garcia

Record: 6-6-0-0 Points: 170 Odds: 6-1

J.D.: There’s no knocking this guy. He’s gotten better each outing, and only illness, injury or a bad post position could slow him down.

M.H.: He crushed a talented Santa Anita field, winning by four and a quarter lengths, and like his father, Big Brown, he will enter the Derby with a perfect record and the deserving title of favorite.

Next: Kentucky Derby on May 2.

2. Firing Line

Trainer: Simon Callaghan Jockey: Gary Stevens
Record: 5-2-3-0 Points: 58 Odds: 13-1

J.D.: He finished behind the top choice by a head twice before going to New Mexico to win the Sunland Derby. That’s enough for me to make him the second choice.

M.H.: The runner-up to Dortmund in the Robert B. Lewis, this speedy colt showed in the Sunland Derby that he could win with ease once free of his shadow. Of course, that won’t be the case in the Derby.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

3. American Pharoah

Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Victor Espinoza

Record: 4-3-0-0 Points: 60 Odds: 5-1

J.D.: Word on the Santa Anita backside is that American Pharoah, last year’s 2-year-old champion, is training even better than his stable mate, Dortmund. The Baffert barn is loaded.

M.H.: The son of Pioneerof the Nile overcame a stumble and a displaced shoe to impressively win the Rebel in the slop. All eyes will be on his next race to see if his form holds up.

Next: Arkansas Derby on Saturday.

4. Carpe Diem

Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez

Record: 5-4-1-0 Points: 164 Odds: 10-1

J.D.: He appeared to win the Bluegrass with energy to spare and is the only real threat from the East. He is going to like the Derby’s mile-and-a-quarter distance.

M.H.: The Blue Grass winner has shown that he deserves to be in the conversation with Baffert’s big guns. Still, he didn’t pull away from the field as much as I expected; Dortmund looked more dominant.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

5. Materiality

Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez

Record: 3-3-0-0 Points: 100 Odds: 12-1

J.D.: Materiality, the Florida Derby champ, is trying to do an awful a lot in a little time. I’m betting against his winning the Run for the Roses on so little foundation.

M.H.: The son of Afleet Alex, he looked impressive in staying perfect in the Florida Derby. But long odds remain: Since 1882, no horse has won the Derby without racing at 2.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

6. Upstart

Trainer: Rick Violette Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Record: 7-3-3-1 Points: 76 Odds: 18-1



J.D.: Melissa likes this horse better than I do. I think we’ve already seen his best.

M.H.: The New York-bred Upstart posted a career-best 108 Beyer speed figure in finishing second in the Florida Derby. He has never really run a bad race, but will he regress?

Next: Kentucky Derby.

7. International Star

Trainer: Mike Maker Jockey: Miguel Mena

Record: 9-5-2-0 Points: 171 Odds: 17-1

J.D.: Sterling résumé, but not all that respected. All this guy does is win. He’s on my tickets, and at 17-1 on Derby day, pound it with both hands.

M.H.: International Star, the son of Fusaichi Pegasus, swept the Fair Grounds prep races (the LeComte, the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby), giving him the most points. He also progressed in all three.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

8. Frosted

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: Joel Rosario

Record: 7-2-4-0 Points: 113 Odds: 40-1

J.D.: Frosted ran himself back into the conversation with an impressive score in the Wood Memorial. I still think he’s more a pretender than a contender.

M.H.: After flopping in the Fountain of Youth, the colt had a throat procedure and appears to have rebounded in a big way, winning the Wood by two lengths while earning a 103 Beyer speed figure. Still a bit of a question mark, but I liked what I saw.

Next: Kentucky Derby.

9. Mubtaahij

Trainer: Mike de Kock Jockey: Christophe Soumillon

Record: 7-4-1-0 Points: 100 Odds: 8-1

J.D.: I’ve watched the U.A.E. Derby replays a dozen times, and he looks like the real deal. He might be the first desert-based horse to hit the board.

M.H.: Won the U.A.E. Derby by an impressive eight lengths, setting Twitter abuzz. But will he be able to bounce back in five weeks and after being shipped overseas?

Next: Kentucky Derby.

10. El Kabeir

Trainer: John Terranova Jockey: C. C. Lopez

Record: 9-4-2-2 Points: 95 Odds: 18-1

J.D.: Meet your West Virginia Derby winner.

M.H.: The Gotham winner was last with a half-mile left but rallied to finish third in the Wood Memorial, suggesting that he still has some fight. Lopez, though, most likely lost the mount. If Calvin Borel takes over, he could be a nice upset pick.

Next: Kentucky Derby.
Click to expand...
Good catch on Firing Line. Is the long layoff important?
Click to expand...
I've seen a reference to 'long layoff' a few times in here. If we're talking about Firing Line, he last raced March 22, winning the Sunland and punching his ticket to the Derby. He'll get plenty of works in before the Derby. I wouldn't characterize this as a 'long layoff' by any stretch.
Click to expand...
Good to know. I need to educate myself. I love to place the bets, but in the end I am still ignorant and contribute to everyone else's winnings.

 
No, it's a good question. That's the only way you'll learn. There will be other horses who have a Derby Prep under their belt closer to the First Saturday in May, but we're talking a matter of days or weeks, not months and months. A long layoff IMO is two months or more. And some trainers like to keep their horses fresh, work them out privately, save them for race day. Other owners want them racing as often as possible. That's why it's as important to know trainer angles and trainer history as it is to know the horses.

If you're new to the sport of kings and want to learn more about it, I highly encourage you to spend some time learning how to read a racing form (if you don't already know). DRF.com has a terrific, interactive tool you can use to help coach you along. In fact, they have an entire tab devoted to "Learning", which is really beneficial to newcomers. In addition, there's no shortage of articles, blogs, writers, columns, etc on the website to keep you current on anything and everything Derby related.

Good luck!

 
A big thing prior to these races is prep and how they take to the track. After Mine That Bird won that's all everyone was saying, how great his preps were and how well he liked the track. Where is a good source for this info? I listen to Mike Welsch but he is like Jon Gruden and loves every horse's workout.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
bshell27 said:
A big thing prior to these races is prep and how they take to the track. After Mine That Bird won that's all everyone was saying, how great his preps were and how well he liked the track. Where is a good source for this info? I listen to Mike Welsch but he is like Jon Gruden and loves every horses workout.
Click to expand...
Once the horses get there, you'll be able to read analysis of daily workouts.

 
shuke said:
Are all the preps over except the Ark Derby?
Click to expand...
Officially the Ark Derby and the Lexington at Keenland - both on Saturday.

As for workouts, Mike Welsch is the guy I listen too daily starting 2 weeks out from the Derby. Face it, most of the field will hold their form heading into the Derby. The key is finding the throwouts because they either have regressed, don't take to the track, etc. Usually they finish with a slower final 1/4. Then there are those that absolutely blossom in the last month after typically going 1 1/8 for the first time. Maybe they just love the CD track - big edge to those who ran their as a 2 YO. They have very strong gallop outs after the work. I remember when Street Sense was training sensationally at CD. He won the Juvenile there as a 2 YO. Was super confident - hit the first race trifecta on Derby day and then put $250WP on Street Sense right away. Went off 9/2 - good score. Orb was a good score a few years ago, and I f'd up and cost myself about 20K when I didn't play the 4 I narrowed it down to exactly the I outlined last year in this thread. Welsch has always been a good source for me - but it's only 1 part.

I don't pay much attention to any prep that was less than 1 1/8. Doesn't mean much to me what they do at 1M or 1 1/16. A 1 1/4 race is grueling. There typically are a bunch of speed types who can't get the distance. So I really look for horses that finish at 1 1/8 as a sign that they can get 1 1/4M. To me every year in the Derby out of 20 horses there are 10-12 or 14 that are complete throwouts. Focus on the ones that can finish. Not necessarily closers. Just fast final 1/8 and 1/4.

Post positions and running styles matter BIG TIME. Draw inside and your toast. Ask Looking at Lucky. Be a big horse that isn't really nimble (Point Given) and you can get stuck in trouble (my fear of Dortmund in the Derby. I think he's the type who will run into racing luck and lose in the Derby but win the Preakness and/or Belmont).

Gonna be fun. Few short weeks away.

 
This is a pretty good but long read. It is not Derby related (quarter horse racing) but I figured people in this thread might be more interested in it than the general population of the ffa.

The Rookie and the Zetas: How the Feds Took Down a Drug Cartel's Horse-Racing Empire

I remember hearing about the Ruidoso Downs raid in the local papers several years ago but didn't pay much attention to it. Apparently the Zeta Cartel got pretty involved in quarter horse racing, using it as a means to launder money in the US. One of their horses, Mr. Piloto, won the $1,000,000 first place purse at the 2010 All-American Futurity.

 
Judge Smails said:
shuke said:
Are all the preps over except the Ark Derby?
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Officially the Ark Derby and the Lexington at Keenland - both on Saturday.

As for workouts, Mike Welsch is the guy I listen too daily starting 2 weeks out from the Derby. Face it, most of the field will hold their form heading into the Derby. The key is finding the throwouts because they either have regressed, don't take to the track, etc. Usually they finish with a slower final 1/4. Then there are those that absolutely blossom in the last month after typically going 1 1/8 for the first time. Maybe they just love the CD track - big edge to those who ran their as a 2 YO. They have very strong gallop outs after the work. I remember when Street Sense was training sensationally at CD. He won the Juvenile there as a 2 YO. Was super confident - hit the first race trifecta on Derby day and then put $250WP on Street Sense right away. Went off 9/2 - good score. Orb was a good score a few years ago, and I f'd up and cost myself about 20K when I didn't play the 4 I narrowed it down to exactly the I outlined last year in this thread. Welsch has always been a good source for me - but it's only 1 part.

I don't pay much attention to any prep that was less than 1 1/8. Doesn't mean much to me what they do at 1M or 1 1/16. A 1 1/4 race is grueling. There typically are a bunch of speed types who can't get the distance. So I really look for horses that finish at 1 1/8 as a sign that they can get 1 1/4M. To me every year in the Derby out of 20 horses there are 10-12 or 14 that are complete throwouts. Focus on the ones that can finish. Not necessarily closers. Just fast final 1/8 and 1/4.

Post positions and running styles matter BIG TIME. Draw inside and your toast. Ask Looking at Lucky. Be a big horse that isn't really nimble (Point Given) and you can get stuck in trouble (my fear of Dortmund in the Derby. I think he's the type who will run into racing luck and lose in the Derby but win the Preakness and/or Belmont).

Gonna be fun. Few short weeks away.
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So far horses raced at CD

Far Right- Races were 1 Mi or less, has a win, place and show.

International Star- 4th with the win going to EK

El Kabeir- 1 1/16 mi against International Star

Dortmund- 1 mi race win.

 
Looks like only TVG will carry these 2 races live. :(

I have to say that for an odds on favorite American Pharoah looks slightly suspect. He's never gone the distance of 1 1/8 miles, something I might forgive if the odds only were a lot better.

Leroy Hoard said:
Lexington: http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=KEE&race=10&param1=2760&param2=759&param3=1511250

Arkansas: http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=OP&race=11&param1=3520&param2=880&param3=1751035
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Who do we think is the favorite on the ML and at post time? Have to figure Carpe Diem, American Pharaoh, and Dortmund are going to draw a lot of support.

 
southeastjerome said:
Judge Smails said:
American Pharoah - MONSTER
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Can't wait to bet against him in the derby.
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Well, you'll get a price. I'm actually thinking of betting against Baffert's other one, Dortmund, strictly thinking a big horse not as nimble more likely to find trouble. Pharoah will lay in first flight - think he could win by 4. He rated, drew off, won geared down going a 1 1/8. I think he wins like Barbaro, Big Brown, etc.

 
American Pharaoh was really impressive as expected. It is going to be interesting who comes out the ML favorite between AP and Dortmund.

 
From Jennie Rees, @CJ_Jennie:

Mike Battaglia, who has made the Kentucky Derby morning line for 40 years, had a quandary after American Pharoah frolicked to an eight-length victory over Far Right in Saturday's $1 million Arkansas Derby.

Battaglia felt sure that no matter what happened at Oaklawn Park in the last of the Kentucky Derby's qualifying races that unbeaten Santa Anita winner Dortmund would be his program favorite. Then American Pharoah unleashed the most draw-dropping triumph yet in a five-race career spectacular enough that he was voted last year's 2-year-old champion off only two wins and missing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with an injury.

"I told people no matter what American Pharoah does, Dortmund is the favorite the way he won at Santa Anita," Battaglia said, continuing of American Pharoah, "And then he not only rates off the pace, he runs that kind of race and was eased up at the end. It was huge! I don't know. I'm going to have to sit down and look."

The only thing Battaglia knows for sure is that trainer Bob Baffert will have the first and second choices for the Derby. Co-favorites? Not beyond the possibility. He almost did that in 2007 with Street Sense (the winner) and Curlin (third and second choice by the slimmest of margins).

"I could see this being the same thing," Battaglia said, calling the tandem the biggest 1-2 punch for a Derby trainer since the Ben Jones-trained Citation and Coaltown in 1948.

American Pharoah's team contended that the champ would be content to settle behind another horse early in a race, though he never had in three prior runaway victories following a losing debut.

But in the 11/8-mile Arkansas Derby, American Pharoah did just that, loping comfortably several lengths back in second as longshot Bridget's Big Luvy set a swift early pace. He inhaled Bridget's Big Luvy into the second turn, in mere seconds dispatched of any other challengers and cruised home with jockey Victor Espinoza decidedly downshifting the final sixteenth-mile.

"The way this horse runs is unbelievable," said Espinoza, who won the 2002 Kentucky Derby on the Baffert-trained War Emblem and last year's on California Chrome for trainer Art Sherman. "I don't feel like he's running that fast and then I look back and he's so far ahead. He was doing it by himself and doing it easy.

"It's the first time I've gone into it in back to back years with horses like this. I think I'm even more excited this year."

American Pharoah finished his work day in 1:48.52, the last eighth-mile in 12.58 seconds and final three-eighths in 37.78. He paid $2.20 to win as the 1-10 favorite in the field of eight 3-year-olds. He picked up $600,000 to bring his earnings to $1,411,500 for Zayat Stables, which also bred the champion by its 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile.

"He's an amazing horse," said Baffert, a three-time Kentucky Derby winner. "… He's always been something special from the start. Victor rode him with a lot of confidence today. He sat off that speed horse and tracked him really well. We were hoping for that, and he gave it to us. It's an exciting time of year. I'm just glad he got it done, and he did it the right way."

Far Right, winner of Oaklawn's Smarty Jones and Southwest before skipping the Rebel won by American Pharoah in his 2015 debut, closed from 15 lengths back under jockey Mike Smith.

"Today we saw a great race by a superhorse," said trainer Ron Moquett, who is based at Oaklawn and Churchill Downs. "Mike said that when he saw that horse kick clear he was just going to do enough to get second and he did. At that point it didn't matter if it was two lengths or 10 lengths, second is still second.

"We'll hope for maybe some different circumstances (in the Kentucky Derby) and just like everybody else going there we'll need some of the best luck. We certainly showed we belong."

The D. Wayne Lukas-trained Mr. Z, who like American Pharoah is owned by Ahmed Zayat, loomed briefly as a threat on the far turn before settling for third, three-quarters of a length behind the late-running Far Right. Rebel runner-up Madefromlucky was another neck back in fourth, edging Bold Conquest.

The Arkansas Derby offered 100 points to the winner, 40 for second, two for third and 10 for fourth.

The top three finishers have the points to make the Kentucky Derby field, with American Pharoah in fourth at 160, Far Right 10th at 62 and Mr. Z 18th at 34. Madefromlucky is tied for 19th at 30 points and No. 21 on the tiebreaker but would have an excellent chance of getting in.

American Pharoah will fly from Arkansas to Louisville, with that equine charter scheduled for Monday afternoon.

 
Any thoughts on Firing Line? He pushed Dortmund to the brink twice before losing by a head each time.

One issue I see is that he'll be running off a 3 month layoff.

 
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chet said:
Anyone have current odds for likely runners?
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These are from Bovada

1. American Pharoah (2-1)

2. Dortmund (9-2)

3. Carpe Diem (6-1)

4. Materiality (9-1)

5. Mubtaahij (9-1)

6. Firing Line (14-1)

7. Frosted (14-1)

8, International Star (16-1)

9. Upstart (16-1)

10. El Kabeir (25-1)

11. Itsaknockout (25-1)

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (25-1)

13. One Lucky Dane (25-1)

14. Danzig Moon (33-1)

15. Far Right (33-1)

16. Ocean Knight (33-1)

17. Tencendur (33-1)

18. Imperia (40-1)

19. Mr Z (50-1)

 
Penguin said:
Any thoughts on Firing Line? He pushed Dortmund to the brink twice before losing by a head each time.

One issue I see is that he'll be running off a 3 month layoff.
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???- I asked the same thing earlier about the layoff and received an answer. Also, Firing Line just ran in Sunland Derby 3/22 in a pretty easy race.

 
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Penguin said:
bshell27 said:
Penguin said:
Any thoughts on Firing Line? He pushed Dortmund to the brink twice before losing by a head each time.

One issue I see is that he'll be running off a 3 month layoff.
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???- I asked the same thing earlier about the layoff and received an answer. Also, Firing Line just ran in Sunland Derby 3/22 in a pretty easy race.
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Thanks, somehow I missed that.
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Firing Line will be off a 41 day (about six week) layoff. Not ideal but not a deal breaker either imo.

Animal Kingdom (2011) won after a 6 week layoff.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
swirvenirvin said:
Dan Lambskin said:
swirvenirvin said:
first floor clubhouse sec for derby tix for $420 good deal?
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Per ticket? Not sure what you get with clubhouse but seems excessive
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unlimited food and beer, its right at the first turn tho
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I'd pass

200 level is nice value
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200 seems a lot more.

should be $150 worth of food and drinks in there I would imagine. $420 is face value through cousins friend that works there.

 
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I mean face value is good right not going to get less than that. Im sure I can drink $100 easy at $10-15 a drink.

Similar on stubhub was $800

 
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swirvenirvin said:
I mean face value is good right not going to get less than that. Im sure I can drink $100 easy at $10-15 a drink.

Similar on stubhub was $800
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Yeah last time I went I basically forgot to eat

Had about 10 mint juleps on an empty stomach in like 80 degree sun and finally realized I should probably slow down and eat something

 
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