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*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (1 Viewer)

Anyone have current odds for likely runners?
These are from Bovada

1. American Pharoah (2-1)

2. Dortmund (9-2)

3. Carpe Diem (6-1)

4. Materiality (9-1)

5. Mubtaahij (9-1)

6. Firing Line (14-1)

7. Frosted (14-1)

8, International Star (16-1)

9. Upstart (16-1)

10. El Kabeir (25-1)

11. Itsaknockout (25-1)

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (25-1)

13. One Lucky Dane (25-1)

14. Danzig Moon (33-1)

15. Far Right (33-1)

16. Ocean Knight (33-1)

17. Tencendur (33-1)

18. Imperia (40-1)

19. Mr Z (50-1)
Right now Dortmund is my pick. With AP being the probable favorite it will give him at least a little value race day. And with both having the same trainer I would expect slightly different position placements so that they don't run into each other too early.

 
Anyone have current odds for likely runners?
These are from Bovada

1. American Pharoah (2-1)

2. Dortmund (9-2)

3. Carpe Diem (6-1)

4. Materiality (9-1)

5. Mubtaahij (9-1)

6. Firing Line (14-1)

7. Frosted (14-1)

8, International Star (16-1)

9. Upstart (16-1)

10. El Kabeir (25-1)

11. Itsaknockout (25-1)

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (25-1)

13. One Lucky Dane (25-1)

14. Danzig Moon (33-1)

15. Far Right (33-1)

16. Ocean Knight (33-1)

17. Tencendur (33-1)

18. Imperia (40-1)

19. Mr Z (50-1)
Right now Dortmund is my pick. With AP being the probable favorite it will give him at least a little value race day. And with both having the same trainer I would expect slightly different position placements so that they don't run into each other too early.
Post position is random and determined on the Wednesday before the race.

 
Hard to get a good feel for the pace until we see post positions, but with so many of the top contenders wanting to be on the lead I'm expecting a slower pace

With the new points system we don't get the sprinter types that don't belong anymore so there really aren't any rabbit types that I see right now

There's always a chance that someone goes crazy like Palace Malice a few years ago but I wouldn't be surprised to see something like last year with slow fractions and the winner pulling away (although we could see a nice stretch duel)

Still working on my analysis but not really seeing any deep closers either and gonna be tough if they don't get a fast pace to close into

 
Anyone have current odds for likely runners?
These are from Bovada

1. American Pharoah (2-1)

2. Dortmund (9-2)

3. Carpe Diem (6-1)

4. Materiality (9-1)

5. Mubtaahij (9-1)

6. Firing Line (14-1)

7. Frosted (14-1)

8, International Star (16-1)

9. Upstart (16-1)

10. El Kabeir (25-1)

11. Itsaknockout (25-1)

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (25-1)

13. One Lucky Dane (25-1)

14. Danzig Moon (33-1)

15. Far Right (33-1)

16. Ocean Knight (33-1)

17. Tencendur (33-1)

18. Imperia (40-1)

19. Mr Z (50-1)
Right now Dortmund is my pick. With AP being the probable favorite it will give him at least a little value race day. And with both having the same trainer I would expect slightly different position placements so that they don't run into each other too early.
Post position is random and determined on the Wednesday before the race.
Yes, I was talking more about where he wants his horses to be in terms of front or middle. PP will have an effect on that of course.

 
Anyone have current odds for likely runners?
These are from Bovada

1. American Pharoah (2-1)

2. Dortmund (9-2)

3. Carpe Diem (6-1)

4. Materiality (9-1)

5. Mubtaahij (9-1)

6. Firing Line (14-1)

7. Frosted (14-1)

8, International Star (16-1)

9. Upstart (16-1)

10. El Kabeir (25-1)

11. Itsaknockout (25-1)

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (25-1)

13. One Lucky Dane (25-1)

14. Danzig Moon (33-1)

15. Far Right (33-1)

16. Ocean Knight (33-1)

17. Tencendur (33-1)

18. Imperia (40-1)

19. Mr Z (50-1)
Right now Dortmund is my pick. With AP being the probable favorite it will give him at least a little value race day. And with both having the same trainer I would expect slightly different position placements so that they don't run into each other too early.
Post position is random and determined on the Wednesday before the race.
I think he knows that but Baffert may tell one jock to gun for the lead and the other to settle in behind the leaders

Hard to say until we see posts though cause that will dictate what they want to do

 
Anyone have current odds for likely runners?
These are from Bovada

1. American Pharoah (2-1)

2. Dortmund (9-2)

3. Carpe Diem (6-1)

4. Materiality (9-1)

5. Mubtaahij (9-1)

6. Firing Line (14-1)

7. Frosted (14-1)

8, International Star (16-1)

9. Upstart (16-1)

10. El Kabeir (25-1)

11. Itsaknockout (25-1)

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (25-1)

13. One Lucky Dane (25-1)

14. Danzig Moon (33-1)

15. Far Right (33-1)

16. Ocean Knight (33-1)

17. Tencendur (33-1)

18. Imperia (40-1)

19. Mr Z (50-1)
Right now Dortmund is my pick. With AP being the probable favorite it will give him at least a little value race day. And with both having the same trainer I would expect slightly different position placements so that they don't run into each other too early.
Post position is random and determined on the Wednesday before the race.
Yes, I was talking more about where he wants his horses to be in terms of front or middle. PP will have an effect on that of course.
My bad. I misunderstood your post.

 
Anyone have current odds for likely runners?
These are from Bovada

1. American Pharoah (2-1)

2. Dortmund (9-2)

3. Carpe Diem (6-1)

4. Materiality (9-1)

5. Mubtaahij (9-1)

6. Firing Line (14-1)

7. Frosted (14-1)

8, International Star (16-1)

9. Upstart (16-1)

10. El Kabeir (25-1)

11. Itsaknockout (25-1)

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (25-1)

13. One Lucky Dane (25-1)

14. Danzig Moon (33-1)

15. Far Right (33-1)

16. Ocean Knight (33-1)

17. Tencendur (33-1)

18. Imperia (40-1)

19. Mr Z (50-1)
Right now Dortmund is my pick. With AP being the probable favorite it will give him at least a little value race day. And with both having the same trainer I would expect slightly different position placements so that they don't run into each other too early.
I don't see any way Pharaoh is 2-1 at post time. I wouldn't be shocked if AP comes off around 7/2 with Dortmund at 4-1 or something, and Carpe Diem not far behind.

 
Anyone have current odds for likely runners?
These are from Bovada

1. American Pharoah (2-1)

2. Dortmund (9-2)

3. Carpe Diem (6-1)

4. Materiality (9-1)

5. Mubtaahij (9-1)

6. Firing Line (14-1)

7. Frosted (14-1)

8, International Star (16-1)

9. Upstart (16-1)

10. El Kabeir (25-1)

11. Itsaknockout (25-1)

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (25-1)

13. One Lucky Dane (25-1)

14. Danzig Moon (33-1)

15. Far Right (33-1)

16. Ocean Knight (33-1)

17. Tencendur (33-1)

18. Imperia (40-1)

19. Mr Z (50-1)
Right now Dortmund is my pick. With AP being the probable favorite it will give him at least a little value race day. And with both having the same trainer I would expect slightly different position placements so that they don't run into each other too early.
I don't see any way Pharaoh is 2-1 at post time. I wouldn't be shocked if AP comes off around 7/2 with Dortmund at 4-1 or something, and Carpe Diem not far behind.
Yes, you may be right. Online betting is never the same as track odds & with 20 horses there is usually nothing below 3-1.

 
Anyone have current odds for likely runners?
These are from Bovada

1. American Pharoah (2-1)

2. Dortmund (9-2)

3. Carpe Diem (6-1)

4. Materiality (9-1)

5. Mubtaahij (9-1)

6. Firing Line (14-1)

7. Frosted (14-1)

8, International Star (16-1)

9. Upstart (16-1)

10. El Kabeir (25-1)

11. Itsaknockout (25-1)

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (25-1)

13. One Lucky Dane (25-1)

14. Danzig Moon (33-1)

15. Far Right (33-1)

16. Ocean Knight (33-1)

17. Tencendur (33-1)

18. Imperia (40-1)

19. Mr Z (50-1)
Right now Dortmund is my pick. With AP being the probable favorite it will give him at least a little value race day. And with both having the same trainer I would expect slightly different position placements so that they don't run into each other too early.
I don't see any way Pharaoh is 2-1 at post time. I wouldn't be shocked if AP comes off around 7/2 with Dortmund at 4-1 or something, and Carpe Diem not far behind.
That's where Watchmaker has them right now...well Carpe Diem at 10-1 though

http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-sponsored-fasig-tipton-churchill-downs

 
Anyone have current odds for likely runners?
These are from Bovada

1. American Pharoah (2-1)

2. Dortmund (9-2)

3. Carpe Diem (6-1)

4. Materiality (9-1)

5. Mubtaahij (9-1)

6. Firing Line (14-1)

7. Frosted (14-1)

8, International Star (16-1)

9. Upstart (16-1)

10. El Kabeir (25-1)

11. Itsaknockout (25-1)

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (25-1)

13. One Lucky Dane (25-1)

14. Danzig Moon (33-1)

15. Far Right (33-1)

16. Ocean Knight (33-1)

17. Tencendur (33-1)

18. Imperia (40-1)

19. Mr Z (50-1)
Right now Dortmund is my pick. With AP being the probable favorite it will give him at least a little value race day. And with both having the same trainer I would expect slightly different position placements so that they don't run into each other too early.
I don't see any way Pharaoh is 2-1 at post time. I wouldn't be shocked if AP comes off around 7/2 with Dortmund at 4-1 or something, and Carpe Diem not far behind.
Yes, you may be right. Online betting is never the same as track odds & with 20 horses there is usually nothing below 3-1.
I'm actually hoping that the odds are better than that. I hope a lot of one time fans will fade the favorites hoping for the monster score.

 
Anyone have current odds for likely runners?
These are from Bovada1. American Pharoah (2-1)

2. Dortmund (9-2)

3. Carpe Diem (6-1)

4. Materiality (9-1)

5. Mubtaahij (9-1)

6. Firing Line (14-1)

7. Frosted (14-1)

8, International Star (16-1)

9. Upstart (16-1)

10. El Kabeir (25-1)

11. Itsaknockout (25-1)

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (25-1)

13. One Lucky Dane (25-1)

14. Danzig Moon (33-1)

15. Far Right (33-1)

16. Ocean Knight (33-1)

17. Tencendur (33-1)

18. Imperia (40-1)

19. Mr Z (50-1)
Right now Dortmund is my pick. With AP being the probable favorite it will give him at least a little value race day. And with both having the same trainer I would expect slightly different position placements so that they don't run into each other too early.
I don't see any way Pharaoh is 2-1 at post time. I wouldn't be shocked if AP comes off around 7/2 with Dortmund at 4-1 or something, and Carpe Diem not far behind.
That's where Watchmaker has them right now...well Carpe Diem at 10-1 though

http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-sponsored-fasig-tipton-churchill-downs
Good guess on my part. Well, except for Carpe Diem, I feel like 10-1 is a nice price on that horse. I like him and Firing Line at 15-1 much better than I like Materiality and Muhtabfdshabfasjkgbdhj at 12-1.

 
What are peoples thoughts on Upstart as a sneaky pick? I can't get a good read on him. Apparently has been running a temperature the past week or so.

Looked good in his last race out (FL derby), but lost to Materiality. It almost looked like Materiality affected him when he was about to put it in top gear down the stretch. ItsaKnockOut finished 4th.

Race before that he was bumped out of 1st for getting in the way of ItsaKnockOut down the stretch, settled for 2nd. Frosted finished 6th.

Race before that looked impressive winning, beating Frosted. But Frosted was bumped at the break and never regained form.

As of right now, im thinking about revolving most of my plays around American Pharoah and Firing Line. Of course that can change with the post position draw.

 
bshell27 said:
El Kabeir to get the Borel bump. Hoping to get a good price on him, but that's gone now.
Borel hasn't been the same since his DUI arrest a few years back. Last major win was the Florida Derby in 2012...

 
Anyone have current odds for likely runners?
These are from Bovada

1. American Pharoah (2-1)

2. Dortmund (9-2)

3. Carpe Diem (6-1)

4. Materiality (9-1)

5. Mubtaahij (9-1)

6. Firing Line (14-1)

7. Frosted (14-1)

8, International Star (16-1)

9. Upstart (16-1)

10. El Kabeir (25-1)

11. Itsaknockout (25-1)

12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (25-1)

13. One Lucky Dane (25-1)

14. Danzig Moon (33-1)

15. Far Right (33-1)

16. Ocean Knight (33-1)

17. Tencendur (33-1)

18. Imperia (40-1)

19. Mr Z (50-1)
Right now Dortmund is my pick. With AP being the probable favorite it will give him at least a little value race day. And with both having the same trainer I would expect slightly different position placements so that they don't run into each other too early.
Yeah, I'm on Dortmund too and hope like hell he's 9/2 on race day. Will be going pretty big on him.

 
Timmay said:
What are peoples thoughts on Upstart as a sneaky pick? I can't get a good read on him. Apparently has been running a temperature the past week or so.

Looked good in his last race out (FL derby), but lost to Materiality. It almost looked like Materiality affected him when he was about to put it in top gear down the stretch. ItsaKnockOut finished 4th.

Race before that he was bumped out of 1st for getting in the way of ItsaKnockOut down the stretch, settled for 2nd. Frosted finished 6th.

Race before that looked impressive winning, beating Frosted. But Frosted was bumped at the break and never regained form.

As of right now, im thinking about revolving most of my plays around American Pharoah and Firing Line. Of course that can change with the post position draw.
I agree with your take on Upstart. I don't think he'll win but do think with the right trip, he could hit the board. I'll be including him in some exotics depending on draw and workouts.

 
So is there a book or anything on the early races that start at 10?

Anything online that can be used to cap those early races?
One of my problems with racing (and I think a reason its not a more popular form of gambling) is the dearth of free info on non-big races. I can find all kinds of stats for free on every football & baseball game but they charge you for almost everything on horses.

But to answer your question, drf.com has packages you can download for a price.

http://www.drf.com/store/compare-past-performances

 
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So is there a book or anything on the early races that start at 10?

Anything online that can be used to cap those early races?
I get free PPs betting through Twin Spires

I can send you the PDF but it's usually not available until the beginning of the week (I usually pull it We'd or Thursday after the posts are finalized)

You can also buy a racing form at The Derby for $5 or so...usually plenty of time in between races to cap the next race but I like to get a head start the day before for Pick 4s

 
So is there a book or anything on the early races that start at 10?

Anything online that can be used to cap those early races?
I get free PPs betting through Twin Spires

I can send you the PDF but it's usually not available until the beginning of the week (I usually pull it We'd or Thursday after the posts are finalized)

You can also buy a racing form at The Derby for $5 or so...usually plenty of time in between races to cap the next race but I like to get a head start the day before for Pick 4s
Yeah I was thinking of some reading material for the drive down there on Friday.

If you can email it to me that would be great!

 
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So is there a book or anything on the early races that start at 10?

Anything online that can be used to cap those early races?
I get free PPs betting through Twin Spires

I can send you the PDF but it's usually not available until the beginning of the week (I usually pull it We'd or Thursday after the posts are finalized)

You can also buy a racing form at The Derby for $5 or so...usually plenty of time in between races to cap the next race but I like to get a head start the day before for Pick 4s
Yeah I was thinking of some reading material for the drive down there on Friday.

If you can email it to me that would be great!
I think your best bet is to find a store near you that sells the actual racing form. The one they print up for the Derby is LOADED with info on all the races, particularly the main event. But you'll have no shortage of data and info on the undercards and it really is one of America's storied pieces of journalism. Should be available by Friday at least.

 
So is there a book or anything on the early races that start at 10?

Anything online that can be used to cap those early races?
I get free PPs betting through Twin Spires

I can send you the PDF but it's usually not available until the beginning of the week (I usually pull it We'd or Thursday after the posts are finalized)

You can also buy a racing form at The Derby for $5 or so...usually plenty of time in between races to cap the next race but I like to get a head start the day before for Pick 4s
Yeah I was thinking of some reading material for the drive down there on Friday.

If you can email it to me that would be great!
I think your best bet is to find a store near you that sells the actual racing form. The one they print up for the Derby is LOADED with info on all the races, particularly the main event. But you'll have no shortage of data and info on the undercards and it really is one of America's storied pieces of journalism. Should be available by Friday at least.
When is the derby day DRF printed? Will I be able to pick it up a few days before?

 
So is there a book or anything on the early races that start at 10?

Anything online that can be used to cap those early races?
I get free PPs betting through Twin Spires

I can send you the PDF but it's usually not available until the beginning of the week (I usually pull it We'd or Thursday after the posts are finalized)

You can also buy a racing form at The Derby for $5 or so...usually plenty of time in between races to cap the next race but I like to get a head start the day before for Pick 4s
Yeah I was thinking of some reading material for the drive down there on Friday.

If you can email it to me that would be great!
I think your best bet is to find a store near you that sells the actual racing form. The one they print up for the Derby is LOADED with info on all the races, particularly the main event. But you'll have no shortage of data and info on the undercards and it really is one of America's storied pieces of journalism. Should be available by Friday at least.
When is the derby day DRF printed? Will I be able to pick it up a few days before?
They will have their Derby Day Digital Paper available for download on Thurs, April 30th but I'm not sure when the print copy is available for purchase. There's a cigar shop in Portland that sells it still, so maybe I'll call and ask when they expect it in. They aren't as easy to find as they used to be. :kicksrock:

 
So is there a book or anything on the early races that start at 10?

Anything online that can be used to cap those early races?
I get free PPs betting through Twin SpiresI can send you the PDF but it's usually not available until the beginning of the week (I usually pull it We'd or Thursday after the posts are finalized)

You can also buy a racing form at The Derby for $5 or so...usually plenty of time in between races to cap the next race but I like to get a head start the day before for Pick 4s
Yeah I was thinking of some reading material for the drive down there on Friday.If you can email it to me that would be great!
Will do...its just past performances but I'll forward anything else I find...someone in my group usually gets the digital guide

Steve Haskins Derby Dozen usually s good read (comments too). Updated each monday

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2015/04/21/derby-dozen-april-21-2015-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

 
Weather.com's forecast for the first Saturday in May:

The 10-day outlook predicts a high of 78 degrees, sunny skies and just a 20 percent chance of showers on May 2, capping what's expected to be a dry week in town.

Only Wednesday -- the day of the Kentucky Derby Festival's Steamboat Race and Derby draw -- has a 50 percent chance of rain.

The forecast for Oaks Day includes a high of 76 degrees, again with a 20 percent chance of rain.

 
Kentucky Derby Week Schedule

Tuesday - Workouts begin in the morning

Wednesday - Draw occurs, 5:30 p.m. (ET) (NBC Sports Network)

Friday - Kentucky Oaks, 5:45 p.m. (ET) (NBC Sports Network)

Saturday - Kentucky Derby, 6:25 p.m. (ET) post time (NBC*)

*live coverage of the undercard races from Churchill Downs begins at noon on NBC Sports Network. The coverage will then switch to NBC at 4 p.m.

 
Kentucky Derby Week Schedule

Tuesday - Workouts begin in the morning

Wednesday - Draw occurs, 5:30 p.m. (ET) (NBC Sports Network)

Friday - Kentucky Oaks, 5:45 p.m. (ET) (NBC Sports Network)

Saturday - Kentucky Derby, 6:25 p.m. (ET) post time (NBC*)

*live coverage of the undercard races from Churchill Downs begins at noon on NBC Sports Network. The coverage will then switch to NBC at 4 p.m.
Is the "draw" when they find out what lane they race from? Or whatever it's called, I'm an idiot on horseracing. Is Wednesday the day that comes out and we get the first odds?

 
Kentucky Derby Week Schedule

Tuesday - Workouts begin in the morning

Wednesday - Draw occurs, 5:30 p.m. (ET) (NBC Sports Network)

Friday - Kentucky Oaks, 5:45 p.m. (ET) (NBC Sports Network)

Saturday - Kentucky Derby, 6:25 p.m. (ET) post time (NBC*)

*live coverage of the undercard races from Churchill Downs begins at noon on NBC Sports Network. The coverage will then switch to NBC at 4 p.m.
Is the "draw" when they find out what lane they race from? Or whatever it's called, I'm an idiot on horseracing. Is Wednesday the day that comes out and we get the first odds?
Yes to all. The track guy releases the morning line as soon as the posts are drawn. He already has a base set of odds and adjusts as necessary per the post position they are stuck with.

 
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Derby Week!! :pickle:

I really wish the media wasn't all over AP, he has been looking really good. His workout was really impressive. Looks to be getting over the Churchill surface really easy. I hope he is at least 4-1 come post time, but thinking it will be more like 2-1. Hopefully now that Dortmund and Carpe Diem are at Chuchill it will take some of the fan fare away from AP to drive those odds down.

Dortmund is a really impressive looking horse. He seems to like to pose for the cameras too. https://instagram.com/p/1-sTBywmK-/

 
I'd had a great Kentucky Derby/Fight Night party for years, it was a well put together party IMO with great food, good booze, good betting on the races.

But I had to cancel it this year due to lack of general interest and availability of guests.

i blame this in part on my child and pregnant wife, but moreso on Horse Racing not allowing the same horses to compete year in and year out to develop a following.

I mean imagine how good the race lineup would be if it was California Chrome vs. I'll have Another vs. Orb vs. about 10 new upstarts... rant over.. for this year

 
LOL

Horse racing used to be one of the three most popular sports in this country and they were using the same exact age rules as today.

 
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I know some of you get the PP form. If you would be so kind to e-mail it to me I would greatly appreciate it! I'll PM my address.

 
I'd had a great Kentucky Derby/Fight Night party for years, it was a well put together party IMO with great food, good booze, good betting on the races.

But I had to cancel it this year due to lack of general interest and availability of guests.

i blame this in part on my child and pregnant wife, but moreso on Horse Racing not allowing the same horses to compete year in and year out to develop a following.

I mean imagine how good the race lineup would be if it was California Chrome vs. I'll have Another vs. Orb vs. about 10 new upstarts... rant over.. for this year
You've officially worn this out.

 
I'd had a great Kentucky Derby/Fight Night party for years, it was a well put together party IMO with great food, good booze, good betting on the races.

But I had to cancel it this year due to lack of general interest and availability of guests.

i blame this in part on my child and pregnant wife, but moreso on Horse Racing not allowing the same horses to compete year in and year out to develop a following.

I mean imagine how good the race lineup would be if it was California Chrome vs. I'll have Another vs. Orb vs. about 10 new upstarts... rant over.. for this year
So how many more posts until we see this schtick again? Im guessing it will be a couple days after the Derby. Wonder how _____ would of raced against California Chrome.

 
Horse racing would be a lot cooler if instead of horses, they had cars. And instead of racing in Kentucky, they raced down in Daytona.

 
My parents are going this year. Bucket list for them both. There's also about 10-15 FBGs going to the Derby. I think some people still care about it. :shrug:

 
General Malaise said:
My parents are going this year. Bucket list for them both. There's also about 10-15 FBGs going to the Derby. I think some people still care about it. :shrug:
:thumbup: This year's derby is very exciting.

 

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