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*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (1 Viewer)

Dortman's jockey has an america suit on, I am also wearing an America suit to the derby.

Dortman 4.5-1 for me!

 
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If you bet at the track you get what you get when the gates open

Make sure to make some trifecta bets...payouts are always $$$ (or super but you're either putting in boatloads or playing the lottery)

 
Although on the surface it could be pretty chalky if AP and Dortmund both hit the board. Need 1 or both to miss or an underlay in 2nd

 
General Malaise said:
My parents are going this year. Bucket list for them both. There's also about 10-15 FBGs going to the Derby. I think some people still care about it. :shrug:
Yeah--look for me in the winner's circle if my friend's horse wins. A long shot but still possible. Didn't Wayne Borel say, "You can't be in the winner's circle if you didn't attend the race."

 
If you bet at the track you get what you get when the gates open

Make sure to make some trifecta bets...payouts are always $$$ (or super but you're either putting in boatloads or playing the lottery)
will make some at track too, just hard when have better options with the offshores..

 
General Malaise said:
My parents are going this year. Bucket list for them both. There's also about 10-15 FBGs going to the Derby. I think some people still care about it. :shrug:
Wait, are we partying with your parents?

 
General Malaise said:
My parents are going this year. Bucket list for them both. There's also about 10-15 FBGs going to the Derby. I think some people still care about it. :shrug:
Yeah--look for me in the winner's circle if my friend's horse wins. A long shot but still possible. Didn't Wayne Borel say, "You can't be in the winner's circle if you didn't attend the race."
Wayne Borel? Do you mean D Wayne Lukas or Calvin Borel?

 
General Malaise said:
My parents are going this year. Bucket list for them both. There's also about 10-15 FBGs going to the Derby. I think some people still care about it. :shrug:
Yeah--look for me in the winner's circle if my friend's horse wins. A long shot but still possible. Didn't Wayne Borel say, "You can't be in the winner's circle if you didn't attend the race."
Wayne Borel? Do you mean D Wayne Lukas or Calvin Borel?
pretty sure he meant Joe Pesci
 
General Malaise said:
My parents are going this year. Bucket list for them both. There's also about 10-15 FBGs going to the Derby. I think some people still care about it. :shrug:
Yeah--look for me in the winner's circle if my friend's horse wins. A long shot but still possible. Didn't Wayne Borel say, "You can't be in the winner's circle if you didn't attend the race."
Wayne Borel? Do you mean D Wayne Lukas or Calvin Borel?
Calvin Gretzky?

 
Although on the surface it could be pretty chalky if AP and Dortmund both hit the board. Need 1 or both to miss or an underlay in 2nd
i dont know what you said there
Basically if AP and Dortmund run 1st and 2nd the Trifecta won't pay **** regardless of who comes in 3rd, however, if you get a longshot in 1st or 2nd and they both still finish in the top 3 it might pay OK

If one ore both miss and you hit it :moneybag:

 
General Malaise said:
My parents are going this year. Bucket list for them both. There's also about 10-15 FBGs going to the Derby. I think some people still care about it. :shrug:
Yeah--look for me in the winner's circle if my friend's horse wins. A long shot but still possible. Didn't Wayne Borel say, "You can't be in the winner's circle if you didn't attend the race."
Wayne Borel? Do you mean D Wayne Lukas or Calvin Borel?
Calvin Gretzky?
The Good One?

 
Dan Lambskin said:
swirvenirvin said:
Although on the surface it could be pretty chalky if AP and Dortmund both hit the board. Need 1 or both to miss or an underlay in 2nd
i dont know what you said there
Basically if AP and Dortmund run 1st and 2nd the Trifecta won't pay **** regardless of who comes in 3rd, however, if you get a longshot in 1st or 2nd and they both still finish in the top 3 it might pay OK

If one ore both miss and you hit it :moneybag:
Firing Line is taking to the track well. Unfortunately, so are AP and Dortmund.

The California contingent had a good morning during the Derby/Oaks training session. FIRING LINE looked tremendous, open galloped 3/8's in 43 and change from the wire around to the five furlong pole. DORTMUND also made a very favorable impression, as did BOLO, who has the looks of a turf horse the way he hits the ground. AMERICAN PHAROAH just jogged today 48 hours removed from his sensational work on Sunday.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
swirvenirvin said:
Although on the surface it could be pretty chalky if AP and Dortmund both hit the board. Need 1 or both to miss or an underlay in 2nd
i dont know what you said there
Basically if AP and Dortmund run 1st and 2nd the Trifecta won't pay **** regardless of who comes in 3rd, however, if you get a longshot in 1st or 2nd and they both still finish in the top 3 it might pay OK

If one ore both miss and you hit it :moneybag:
Firing Line is taking to the track well. Unfortunately, so are AP and Dortmund.

The California contingent had a good morning during the Derby/Oaks training session. FIRING LINE looked tremendous, open galloped 3/8's in 43 and change from the wire around to the five furlong pole. DORTMUND also made a very favorable impression, as did BOLO, who has the looks of a turf horse the way he hits the ground. AMERICAN PHAROAH just jogged today 48 hours removed from his sensational work on Sunday.
I read today that Danzig Moon is really taking to the track as well, the trainer is just worried if he can compete with the rest of the horses. Also said he would likely need a near flawless trip to take home the win.

 
shuke said:
My parents are going this year. Bucket list for them both. There's also about 10-15 FBGs going to the Derby. I think some people still care about it. :shrug:
Wait, are we partying with your parents?
Notorious T.R.E. said:
shuke said:
My parents are going this year. Bucket list for them both. There's also about 10-15 FBGs going to the Derby. I think some people still care about it. :shrug:
Wait, are we partying with your parents?
Devil's Shoestring fan club, imo.
UniAlias said:
OMG can't wait to meet GM's parents. I have so many questions for them.
:lmao:

If you don't know what they look like, here's an artists rendition of what to look for. Tell them their son says "hey".

 
Hi everyone! The last few years, I've put some (hmmm - energy :loco: ) into the "female families" angle. It's pretty well known that 23b has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners - 8 total - last I'll Have Another. Interestingly, Carpe Diem and Bolo hail from 23b.

Anyway, with the Derby shaping up to be a bit chalkier, I'm going to invest more than usual into the Oaks. Soooooo - I spent a few hours on this whole female family business relative to the Kentucky Oaks. What I discovered was some bizarre similarities to Belmont/Preakness recent history. Over the past 15 Oaks, 5 winners have hailed from family 8. The most impressive winners during that span were last year's Untapable (from 8d) and best time - 2003 Bird Town (from 8f.) No less than 4 fillies from family 8 are a part of the field this year! #3 Include Betty (20-1) from 8f, #4 Eskenformoney (20-1) from 8c, #10 Ocean Wave (30-1) from 8d & #13 *Birdatthewire (6-1) from 8f.

Normal 'capping has me pointed towards #5 Condo Commando and I do like #14 Puca - for a whole host of reasons, just wish she got a better draw. Not sure if just boxing the longer shots from family 8, or playing them underneath more obvious exactas and triples is better. Just tossing it out there for yah...

:ph34r: *If Birdatthewire is fortunate enough to come up on top of the Oaks, don't be surprised to see her show up in the Preakness or even the Belmont. Trainer Romans (Shackleford 2011) is no stranger to turning the tables on the Derby winner. Also, her sire (Summer Bird) won the 2009 Belmont. Her only defeat in last 4 races was to Ekati's Phaeton at a shorter distance (mile) where she was bumped at the start and was definitely coming. By the way, Ekati's Phaeton is signed on at (6-1) morning line in the 7 furlong Eight Belles just a race before the Oaks.

 
Is there anywhere to get some good analysis on each horse's works/behavior on the track during the week? You read so much about how horses announce to the betting public how they like the track and how they're feeling (there's a whole article on Holy Bull on ESPN.com today to this exact effect), but I guess I don't know how to access that information.

 
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Hi everyone! The last few years, I've put some (hmmm - energy :loco: ) into the "female families" angle. It's pretty well known that 23b has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners - 8 total - last I'll Have Another. Interestingly, Carpe Diem and Bolo hail from 23b.

Anyway, with the Derby shaping up to be a bit chalkier, I'm going to invest more than usual into the Oaks. Soooooo - I spent a few hours on this whole female family business relative to the Kentucky Oaks. What I discovered was some bizarre similarities to Belmont/Preakness recent history. Over the past 15 Oaks, 5 winners have hailed from family 8. The most impressive winners during that span were last year's Untapable (from 8d) and best time - 2003 Bird Town (from 8f.) No less than 4 fillies from family 8 are a part of the field this year! #3 Include Betty (20-1) from 8f, #4 Eskenformoney (20-1) from 8c, #10 Ocean Wave (30-1) from 8d & #13 *Birdatthewire (6-1) from 8f.

Normal 'capping has me pointed towards #5 Condo Commando and I do like #14 Puca - for a whole host of reasons, just wish she got a better draw. Not sure if just boxing the longer shots from family 8, or playing them underneath more obvious exactas and triples is better. Just tossing it out there for yah...

:ph34r: *If Birdatthewire is fortunate enough to come up on top of the Oaks, don't be surprised to see her show up in the Preakness or even the Belmont. Trainer Romans (Shackleford 2011) is no stranger to turning the tables on the Derby winner. Also, her sire (Summer Bird) won the 2009 Belmont. Her only defeat in last 4 races was to Ekati's Phaeton at a shorter distance (mile) where she was bumped at the start and was definitely coming. By the way, Ekati's Phaeton is signed on at (6-1) morning line in the 7 furlong Eight Belles just a race before the Oaks.
This is way over my head.

 
Is there anywhere to get some good analysis on each horse's works/behavior on the track during the week? You read so much about how horses announce to the betting public how they like the track and how they're feeling (there's a whole article on Holy Bull on ESPN.com today to this exact effect), but I guess I don't know how to access that information.
Not sure if this is what you are looking for, but this local Louisville paper covers the Derby about as up close as anyone out there.

http://www.courier-journal.com/kentucky-derby/

 
Is there anywhere to get some good analysis on each horse's works/behavior on the track during the week? You read so much about how horses announce to the betting public how they like the track and how they're feeling (there's a whole article on Holy Bull on ESPN.com today to this exact effect), but I guess I don't know how to access that information.
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts

Also look for Steve Haskins final writeup on bloodhorse

 
Is there anywhere to get some good analysis on each horse's works/behavior on the track during the week? You read so much about how horses announce to the betting public how they like the track and how they're feeling (there's a whole article on Holy Bull on ESPN.com today to this exact effect), but I guess I don't know how to access that information.
Not sure if this is what you are looking for, but this local Louisville paper covers the Derby about as up close as anyone out there.

http://www.courier-journal.com/kentucky-derby/
I second that. Here is a direct link to live updates/workouts.

 
Hi everyone! The last few years, I've put some (hmmm - energy :loco: ) into the "female families" angle. It's pretty well known that 23b has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners - 8 total - last I'll Have Another. Interestingly, Carpe Diem and Bolo hail from 23b.

Anyway, with the Derby shaping up to be a bit chalkier, I'm going to invest more than usual into the Oaks. Soooooo - I spent a few hours on this whole female family business relative to the Kentucky Oaks. What I discovered was some bizarre similarities to Belmont/Preakness recent history. Over the past 15 Oaks, 5 winners have hailed from family 8. The most impressive winners during that span were last year's Untapable (from 8d) and best time - 2003 Bird Town (from 8f.) No less than 4 fillies from family 8 are a part of the field this year! #3 Include Betty (20-1) from 8f, #4 Eskenformoney (20-1) from 8c, #10 Ocean Wave (30-1) from 8d & #13 *Birdatthewire (6-1) from 8f.

Normal 'capping has me pointed towards #5 Condo Commando and I do like #14 Puca - for a whole host of reasons, just wish she got a better draw. Not sure if just boxing the longer shots from family 8, or playing them underneath more obvious exactas and triples is better. Just tossing it out there for yah...

:ph34r: *If Birdatthewire is fortunate enough to come up on top of the Oaks, don't be surprised to see her show up in the Preakness or even the Belmont. Trainer Romans (Shackleford 2011) is no stranger to turning the tables on the Derby winner. Also, her sire (Summer Bird) won the 2009 Belmont. Her only defeat in last 4 races was to Ekati's Phaeton at a shorter distance (mile) where she was bumped at the start and was definitely coming. By the way, Ekati's Phaeton is signed on at (6-1) morning line in the 7 furlong Eight Belles just a race before the Oaks.
Please unpack family 8. I'm thinking Illuminati.

 
Hi everyone! The last few years, I've put some (hmmm - energy :loco: ) into the "female families" angle. It's pretty well known that 23b has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners - 8 total - last I'll Have Another. Interestingly, Carpe Diem and Bolo hail from 23b.

Anyway, with the Derby shaping up to be a bit chalkier, I'm going to invest more than usual into the Oaks. Soooooo - I spent a few hours on this whole female family business relative to the Kentucky Oaks. What I discovered was some bizarre similarities to Belmont/Preakness recent history. Over the past 15 Oaks, 5 winners have hailed from family 8. The most impressive winners during that span were last year's Untapable (from 8d) and best time - 2003 Bird Town (from 8f.) No less than 4 fillies from family 8 are a part of the field this year! #3 Include Betty (20-1) from 8f, #4 Eskenformoney (20-1) from 8c, #10 Ocean Wave (30-1) from 8d & #13 *Birdatthewire (6-1) from 8f.

Normal 'capping has me pointed towards #5 Condo Commando and I do like #14 Puca - for a whole host of reasons, just wish she got a better draw. Not sure if just boxing the longer shots from family 8, or playing them underneath more obvious exactas and triples is better. Just tossing it out there for yah...

:ph34r: *If Birdatthewire is fortunate enough to come up on top of the Oaks, don't be surprised to see her show up in the Preakness or even the Belmont. Trainer Romans (Shackleford 2011) is no stranger to turning the tables on the Derby winner. Also, her sire (Summer Bird) won the 2009 Belmont. Her only defeat in last 4 races was to Ekati's Phaeton at a shorter distance (mile) where she was bumped at the start and was definitely coming. By the way, Ekati's Phaeton is signed on at (6-1) morning line in the 7 furlong Eight Belles just a race before the Oaks.
This is way over my head.
It's not that hard. Think of it as a family tree pointing back to individual matriarch blood lines. For the most part, individual numbers trace back to certain countries, then the subsequent family lettering are individual branches to that tree. Lots of 'cappers follow sires (the whose your daddy) and recently, more attention is devoted towards mothers actually creating the "classic" race horse for different type events.

For what it's worth the A family traces back to America. California Chrome was an A-4. The A-4 entrant from this year's field is Far Right. You have to go all the way back to 1966 (Kauai King) to find the most recent winner before Chrome. I love those two, but the A-4's are hardly prolific.

 
Is there anywhere to get some good analysis on each horse's works/behavior on the track during the week? You read so much about how horses announce to the betting public how they like the track and how they're feeling (there's a whole article on Holy Bull on ESPN.com today to this exact effect), but I guess I don't know how to access that information.
Not sure if this is what you are looking for, but this local Louisville paper covers the Derby about as up close as anyone out there.

http://www.courier-journal.com/kentucky-derby/
Is there anywhere to get some good analysis on each horse's works/behavior on the track during the week? You read so much about how horses announce to the betting public how they like the track and how they're feeling (there's a whole article on Holy Bull on ESPN.com today to this exact effect), but I guess I don't know how to access that information.
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts

Also look for Steve Haskins final writeup on bloodhorse
Is there anywhere to get some good analysis on each horse's works/behavior on the track during the week? You read so much about how horses announce to the betting public how they like the track and how they're feeling (there's a whole article on Holy Bull on ESPN.com today to this exact effect), but I guess I don't know how to access that information.
Not sure if this is what you are looking for, but this local Louisville paper covers the Derby about as up close as anyone out there.

http://www.courier-journal.com/kentucky-derby/
I second that. Here is a direct link to live updates/workouts.
Thanks fellows !

 
Hi everyone! The last few years, I've put some (hmmm - energy :loco: ) into the "female families" angle. It's pretty well known that 23b has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners - 8 total - last I'll Have Another. Interestingly, Carpe Diem and Bolo hail from 23b.

Anyway, with the Derby shaping up to be a bit chalkier, I'm going to invest more than usual into the Oaks. Soooooo - I spent a few hours on this whole female family business relative to the Kentucky Oaks. What I discovered was some bizarre similarities to Belmont/Preakness recent history. Over the past 15 Oaks, 5 winners have hailed from family 8. The most impressive winners during that span were last year's Untapable (from 8d) and best time - 2003 Bird Town (from 8f.) No less than 4 fillies from family 8 are a part of the field this year! #3 Include Betty (20-1) from 8f, #4 Eskenformoney (20-1) from 8c, #10 Ocean Wave (30-1) from 8d & #13 *Birdatthewire (6-1) from 8f.

Normal 'capping has me pointed towards #5 Condo Commando and I do like #14 Puca - for a whole host of reasons, just wish she got a better draw. Not sure if just boxing the longer shots from family 8, or playing them underneath more obvious exactas and triples is better. Just tossing it out there for yah...

:ph34r: *If Birdatthewire is fortunate enough to come up on top of the Oaks, don't be surprised to see her show up in the Preakness or even the Belmont. Trainer Romans (Shackleford 2011) is no stranger to turning the tables on the Derby winner. Also, her sire (Summer Bird) won the 2009 Belmont. Her only defeat in last 4 races was to Ekati's Phaeton at a shorter distance (mile) where she was bumped at the start and was definitely coming. By the way, Ekati's Phaeton is signed on at (6-1) morning line in the 7 furlong Eight Belles just a race before the Oaks.
This is way over my head.
It's not that hard. Think of it as a family tree pointing back to individual matriarch blood lines. For the most part, individual numbers trace back to certain countries, then the subsequent family lettering are individual branches to that tree. Lots of 'cappers follow sires (the whose your daddy) and recently, more attention is devoted towards mothers actually creating the "classic" race horse for different type events.

For what it's worth the A family traces back to America. California Chrome was an A-4. The A-4 entrant from this year's field is Far Right. You have to go all the way back to 1966 (Kauai King) to find the most recent winner before Chrome. I love those two, but the A-4's are hardly prolific.
Interesting stuff. I would like to subscribe to your newsletter, sir !

 
Not sure what the price will be, but they need to calm down on this horse. Looking to get better odds, but they're making it difficult.

Firing Line was the star, at least in this observer's opinion. He galloped willingly and looked like he wanted more. Remember, this is the horse that nearly beat Dortmund -- twice.

 
Not sure what the price will be, but they need to calm down on this horse. Looking to get better odds, but they're making it difficult.

Firing Line was the star, at least in this observer's opinion. He galloped willingly and looked like he wanted more. Remember, this is the horse that nearly beat Dortmund -- twice.
He is going to be in most of my exotics.

 
Not sure what the price will be, but they need to calm down on this horse. Looking to get better odds, but they're making it difficult.

Firing Line was the star, at least in this observer's opinion. He galloped willingly and looked like he wanted more. Remember, this is the horse that nearly beat Dortmund -- twice.
He is going to be in most of my exotics.
Yes, hard to include Dortmund without FL also.

 
Not sure what the price will be, but they need to calm down on this horse. Looking to get better odds, but they're making it difficult.

Firing Line was the star, at least in this observer's opinion. He galloped willingly and looked like he wanted more. Remember, this is the horse that nearly beat Dortmund -- twice.
He is going to be in most of my exotics.
Yes, hard to include Dortmund without FL also.
Agreed LH, laughin, first thing I wrote down about a month ago when I noticed I didn't have that exacta among my futures. "Biggest Dortmund exacta box absolutely has to be with Firing Line." Always try to play the "what happened last time" exacta angle. Won a good many Preakness exactas over that boring notion over the years.

 
I have my doubts FiringLine can get the distance
Legitimate comment. His grandsire (Lion Heart) got reeled in by Stewart Elliot on Smarty Jones in the stretch of the 2004 Kentucky Derby. Interesting to note; however, the closer couldn't get to him. Imperialism settled for 3rd. Lion Heart was great albeit at shorter distances.

I'd add (if he draws too far outside) he'll spend even more to get to that lead, which could make him even more vulnerable late.

 
May be wrong, but didn't they draw positions in the afternoon/mid-afternoon time previous years? I don't remember it being 5:30.

 
I have my doubts FiringLine can get the distance
Legitimate comment. His grandsire (Lion Heart) got reeled in by Stewart Elliot on Smarty Jones in the stretch of the 2004 Kentucky Derby. Interesting to note; however, the closer couldn't get to him. Imperialism settled for 3rd. Lion Heart was great albeit at shorter distances.

I'd add (if he draws too far outside) he'll spend even more to get to that lead, which could make him even more vulnerable late.
Will you post your thoughts on the Derby after post positions are drawn? I'd love to see them.

 
I like Firing Line too, but he just hasn't been able to get over on Dortmund, which is not really a criticism as Dortmund is special. The Sunland Derby was visually impressive, but he was running against manure factories that day.

ETA: Pedigree doesn't support the distance.

 
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Marcus Hersh

Churchill Downs , 2015-04-29 - DRF Live

Posted : 2hrs 32mins ago

Quick take on what I've seen so far from Derby horses

In Mike Welsch we've got an ace clocker upstairs generating invaluable info all morning and in his daily Clocker Report, but after three days of seeing as much as I can of these horses while standing right on the rail near the three-quarters gap on the backstretch, might as well put down what things have looked like from there so far this week.

AMERICAN PHAROAH - Nothing to fault him in his two days of training (one jog, one gallop). Its crazy how many people Churchill security lets near the horses before the Oaks - Derby training session starts at 8:30. There were dozens of folks pressing in on American Pharoah and Dortmunnd, cameras and phones just a few feet away, as the two walked round in tight circles waiting to go out onto the track. None other than jockey Mike Smith, standing among the crowd, remarked to AP's exercise rider, "It looks like he's really starting to enjoy the attention," and indeed, the press of humans didn't seem to bother the colt a bit.

DORTMUND - Same as above. Looks great. Probably be my top selection.

MATERIALITY - Best day galloping this week was Monday, I thought. Didn't care for him Tuesday, but he was better today, and got less hot. Not tossing based on appearance, but not upgrading.

CARPE DIEM - Keeping quiet by design this week. Very mild gallops two straight days. Think he looks very well, & seeing nothing to downgrade his good form.

MUBTAAHIJ - Done very little in terms of training so far, & can't judge him that way, but he is as calm and relaxed as any horse out there, and has taken his heavy travel and racing schedule as well as could possibly be hoped.

FIRING LINE - Just, wow. Best looking animal training the last two days. Fabulously handsome, powerful, has beautiful way of moving. Requires draw reins to keep him check, and he had his neck bent in half today, yet they were able to slow him down to a 1:02 5fs work last weekend. Trainer insists he can rate off pace Saturday. Had I more confidence he'll stay 10fs, I'd pick him.

FROSTED - Got first look at him Wednesday. Average gallop. Nothing to sway one in either direction.

INTERNATIONAL STAR - Tough to read. He's not a fluid mover, and occasionally looks downright rough, but his gallops have been faster and stronger than any horse this week, and he does it with good energy. Think you gotta use him in tris and supers.

UPSTART - First day Wednesday after shipping from Fla. with Frosted, and of the two, this one was significantly more eye-catching. In good flesh. Smooth gallop. Can't fault on looks.

BOLO - Real show stopper in terms of raw appearance, but wasn't as enamored with his training session Wednesday as Tuesday. Still think he's a turf horse at bottom.

DANZIG MOON - One of the training stars of the week, as well documented by Mr. Welsch. Every day is more of the same - he's floating off the ground in his gallops, and gives the sense he is jumping out of his skin. Ability is the issue. Improving. I'm using him.

EL KABEIR - Haven't seen him yet.

FAR RIGHT - Long way from the flashy ones, though he's going better than some. Appearance wouldn't sway me one way of the other.

ITSAKNOCKOUT - Don't want to disparage anyone's horse, but couldn't possibly use him based on what I've seen this week.

STANFORD - Galloping as well, if not better, than any of the Pletcher horses. Excellent energy and on the muscle all week. Doubt he's good enough, but appears in very good form.

TENCENDUR - Brief glimpse on Wednesday. There's a lot of meat on the bone. Can't say much more than that.

WAR STORY - Little chance on paper, less in person

MR Z - see War Story

OCHO OCHO OCHO - See War Story & Mr Z

FRAMMENTO - Actually looked pretty decent galloping Wednesday. The grindiest of grinders. If he gets in and you play the super, put him on one ticket in fourth; slightest chance to get the tiniest share because he might stay.

 
Marcus Hersh

Churchill Downs , 2015-04-29 - DRF Live

Posted : 2hrs 32mins ago

Quick take on what I've seen so far from Derby horses

In Mike Welsch we've got an ace clocker upstairs generating invaluable info all morning and in his daily Clocker Report, but after three days of seeing as much as I can of these horses while standing right on the rail near the three-quarters gap on the backstretch, might as well put down what things have looked like from there so far this week.

AMERICAN PHAROAH - Nothing to fault him in his two days of training (one jog, one gallop). Its crazy how many people Churchill security lets near the horses before the Oaks - Derby training session starts at 8:30. There were dozens of folks pressing in on American Pharoah and Dortmunnd, cameras and phones just a few feet away, as the two walked round in tight circles waiting to go out onto the track. None other than jockey Mike Smith, standing among the crowd, remarked to AP's exercise rider, "It looks like he's really starting to enjoy the attention," and indeed, the press of humans didn't seem to bother the colt a bit.

DORTMUND - Same as above. Looks great. Probably be my top selection.

MATERIALITY - Best day galloping this week was Monday, I thought. Didn't care for him Tuesday, but he was better today, and got less hot. Not tossing based on appearance, but not upgrading.

CARPE DIEM - Keeping quiet by design this week. Very mild gallops two straight days. Think he looks very well, & seeing nothing to downgrade his good form.

MUBTAAHIJ - Done very little in terms of training so far, & can't judge him that way, but he is as calm and relaxed as any horse out there, and has taken his heavy travel and racing schedule as well as could possibly be hoped.

FIRING LINE - Just, wow. Best looking animal training the last two days. Fabulously handsome, powerful, has beautiful way of moving. Requires draw reins to keep him check, and he had his neck bent in half today, yet they were able to slow him down to a 1:02 5fs work last weekend. Trainer insists he can rate off pace Saturday. Had I more confidence he'll stay 10fs, I'd pick him.

FROSTED - Got first look at him Wednesday. Average gallop. Nothing to sway one in either direction.

INTERNATIONAL STAR - Tough to read. He's not a fluid mover, and occasionally looks downright rough, but his gallops have been faster and stronger than any horse this week, and he does it with good energy. Think you gotta use him in tris and supers.

UPSTART - First day Wednesday after shipping from Fla. with Frosted, and of the two, this one was significantly more eye-catching. In good flesh. Smooth gallop. Can't fault on looks.

BOLO - Real show stopper in terms of raw appearance, but wasn't as enamored with his training session Wednesday as Tuesday. Still think he's a turf horse at bottom.

DANZIG MOON - One of the training stars of the week, as well documented by Mr. Welsch. Every day is more of the same - he's floating off the ground in his gallops, and gives the sense he is jumping out of his skin. Ability is the issue. Improving. I'm using him.

EL KABEIR - Haven't seen him yet.

FAR RIGHT - Long way from the flashy ones, though he's going better than some. Appearance wouldn't sway me one way of the other.

ITSAKNOCKOUT - Don't want to disparage anyone's horse, but couldn't possibly use him based on what I've seen this week.

STANFORD - Galloping as well, if not better, than any of the Pletcher horses. Excellent energy and on the muscle all week. Doubt he's good enough, but appears in very good form.

TENCENDUR - Brief glimpse on Wednesday. There's a lot of meat on the bone. Can't say much more than that.

WAR STORY - Little chance on paper, less in person

MR Z - see War Story

OCHO OCHO OCHO - See War Story & Mr Z

FRAMMENTO - Actually looked pretty decent galloping Wednesday. The grindiest of grinders. If he gets in and you play the super, put him on one ticket in fourth; slightest chance to get the tiniest share because he might stay.
Love it. Thanks for posting, Dan.

 

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