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*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter chet
- Start date
did not know that. I think we just got gen adm at the door last year. will have to take a look
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I know I'm betting against American Pharoah. Might be a pretty decent wager too. I think Victor Espinoza is 2-68 or something lifetime at Belmont Park. It's a hometown track usually mastered by local jockeys sort of like the downhill turf at Santa Anita. AP will be tired as well, and 1 1/2 miles is well beyond what his breeding points to (could be said about many horses). I actually think a lot of things went his way in the Preakness, including Firing Line stumbling out of the gate and losing all chance wide and Dortmund not really wanting an off track and mud kicked in his face. AP broke well, went for the lead early, and cruised. I don't think that trip wins at Belmont.
Most logical are Materiality and Frosted. Talented, fresh horses who had excuses in the Derby. Very interested to see how the field develops over the coming weeks to see if any longer shots develop. I think AP goes at 3-5 and won't be on any of my tickets.
Most logical are Materiality and Frosted. Talented, fresh horses who had excuses in the Derby. Very interested to see how the field develops over the coming weeks to see if any longer shots develop. I think AP goes at 3-5 and won't be on any of my tickets.
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Instinctive
Footballguy
I've got my ticket (just GA), so PM if down to cornhole (I think that's the right term?)
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
Is there very much in the way of history of horses winning the Derby and the Belmont, but not the Preakness?
It seems like there are horses all the time that win the first two, and can't complete the 3rd, but you don't hear about horses doing 1 and 3
Or how about horses winning 2 and 3, but not 1
It seems like there are horses all the time that win the first two, and can't complete the 3rd, but you don't hear about horses doing 1 and 3
Or how about horses winning 2 and 3, but not 1
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Yes
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
By my count 11 times a horse has won the first and third not the second. 18 times a horse has won the 2nd and 3rd not the first.
Numbers may be slightly different as there are about 11 years in the old old days when the Preakness ran before the Derby (and twice they ran the same day!) But the overall number of 29 looks right regardless.
-QG
Numbers may be slightly different as there are about 11 years in the old old days when the Preakness ran before the Derby (and twice they ran the same day!) But the overall number of 29 looks right regardless.
-QG
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
The sad thing is if he does win they'll retire him on the spot
Hell they'll probably try to breed him in the winners circle
Hell they'll probably try to breed him in the winners circle
Timmay
Footballguy
That is a shame. I figure it has a lot to do with the stud barn paying so much to strictly have a horse stud and the consequences that come with racing, but I really wish more horses would still race while performing stud services. It would be nice to see AP perform in the next couple Breeders Cup.
It is sounding like regardless AP wont be racing after this year. Might race in the Haskell and/or BC if he doesn't win the Triple Crown.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
The first 2 races are very similar in not just distance but track surface also. Belmont is a whole different thing, not to mention the freshness angle some horses bring.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Prince Myshkin
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Timmay
Footballguy
Just imagine the ratings for the derby if California Chrome, Orb and I'll Have Another ran too!!!!
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner American Pharoah figures to have nine challengers when he runs in the Belmont Stakes next week, trying to become the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years.
Seven of his expected rivals return from the Derby or the Preakness, while two others are new to the Triple Crown trail.
The latest horse to join the mix Thursday was The Truth or Else, who has two wins in two starts at Belmont Park. He is trained by Ken McPeek, who ended War Emblem's Triple try in 2002 with 70-1 shot Sarava.
Other expected runners are Carpe Diem (10th in Derby); Frammento (11th in Derby); Frosted (fourth in Derby); Keen Ice (seventh in Derby); Madefromlucky; Materiality (sixth in Derby); Mubtaahij (eighth in Derby); and Tale of Verve (second in Preakness).
The field will be set next Wednesday, when entries are taken and post positions drawn.
Bob Baffert, who trains American Pharoah, downplayed the issue of Derby horses skipping the Preakness to rest up five weeks and run in the Belmont.
''I don't blame them,'' he said Thursday. ''That part of the Triple Crown doesn't bother me at all.''
Baffert won't send American Pharoah from Kentucky to Belmont Park until next Tuesday, and the horse won't have an official workout over the big oval. Instead, he'll gallop up to the race on June 6.
''That's my comfort zone,'' he said. ''I've had so much luck shipping out of Churchill Downs and winning Grade 1 races. I feel more confident doing that than if I was just sitting around up there.''
Kiaran McLaughlin will saddle Frosted at his home track, and he agreed with Baffert that American Pharoah doesn't need extended time over the track.
''He could probably run down a street very well over broken glass. He's a very, very nice horse,'' McLaughlin said. ''I don't think working over it is going to make him like it. It's more the distance, because no one has run a mile and a half, and you don't know if they'll want a mile and a half.''
American Pharoah has never run at Belmont, and neither have most of his challengers. However, six of them train there and The Truth or Else has those two victories on the track.
''Weird things happen in the Belmont,'' McPeek said. ''You shouldn't duck one horse in a race. American Pharoah could possibly not handle the surface. You don't know. So long as it's a dry track, we'll pull the trigger.''
Only 11 horses have swept the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont, the last being Affirmed in 1978.
The most recent attempt was last year, when California Chrome finished in a tie for fourth in the Belmont. In 2012, I'll Have Another won the first two legs but was scratched on Belmont eve with a leg injury. In 2008, Big Brown didn't finish the Belmont.
''I don't want to let those fans down,'' Baffert said. ''Every year we go, 'This is the one.' Hopefully, maybe, this is the one. So far all indications show me that he's doing well. It's about the horse now. Is he that good of a horse to do it?''
Seven of his expected rivals return from the Derby or the Preakness, while two others are new to the Triple Crown trail.
The latest horse to join the mix Thursday was The Truth or Else, who has two wins in two starts at Belmont Park. He is trained by Ken McPeek, who ended War Emblem's Triple try in 2002 with 70-1 shot Sarava.
Other expected runners are Carpe Diem (10th in Derby); Frammento (11th in Derby); Frosted (fourth in Derby); Keen Ice (seventh in Derby); Madefromlucky; Materiality (sixth in Derby); Mubtaahij (eighth in Derby); and Tale of Verve (second in Preakness).
The field will be set next Wednesday, when entries are taken and post positions drawn.
Bob Baffert, who trains American Pharoah, downplayed the issue of Derby horses skipping the Preakness to rest up five weeks and run in the Belmont.
''I don't blame them,'' he said Thursday. ''That part of the Triple Crown doesn't bother me at all.''
Baffert won't send American Pharoah from Kentucky to Belmont Park until next Tuesday, and the horse won't have an official workout over the big oval. Instead, he'll gallop up to the race on June 6.
''That's my comfort zone,'' he said. ''I've had so much luck shipping out of Churchill Downs and winning Grade 1 races. I feel more confident doing that than if I was just sitting around up there.''
Kiaran McLaughlin will saddle Frosted at his home track, and he agreed with Baffert that American Pharoah doesn't need extended time over the track.
''He could probably run down a street very well over broken glass. He's a very, very nice horse,'' McLaughlin said. ''I don't think working over it is going to make him like it. It's more the distance, because no one has run a mile and a half, and you don't know if they'll want a mile and a half.''
American Pharoah has never run at Belmont, and neither have most of his challengers. However, six of them train there and The Truth or Else has those two victories on the track.
''Weird things happen in the Belmont,'' McPeek said. ''You shouldn't duck one horse in a race. American Pharoah could possibly not handle the surface. You don't know. So long as it's a dry track, we'll pull the trigger.''
Only 11 horses have swept the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont, the last being Affirmed in 1978.
The most recent attempt was last year, when California Chrome finished in a tie for fourth in the Belmont. In 2012, I'll Have Another won the first two legs but was scratched on Belmont eve with a leg injury. In 2008, Big Brown didn't finish the Belmont.
''I don't want to let those fans down,'' Baffert said. ''Every year we go, 'This is the one.' Hopefully, maybe, this is the one. So far all indications show me that he's doing well. It's about the horse now. Is he that good of a horse to do it?''
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
The Truth or Else and Carpe Diem both out for Saturday. Looks like a field of 8.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
As usual in this type of history making event, you have to bet against it to make any money.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Yep. Just gotta figure out a few tosses and then I'm going to play the rest of the field minus Pharaoh to win with the same horses plus Pharaoh to place/show.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Awaiting the Wednesday draw for post positions, might as well bump this puppy.
Current Lineup and Odds
Horse Odds
American Pharoah 4-5
Frosted 5-1
Materiality 13-2
Mubtaahij 16-1
Madefromlucky 12-1
Tale of Verve 20-1
Keen Ice 25-1
Frammento 33-1
Source: Odds Shark
Current Lineup and Odds
Horse Odds
American Pharoah 4-5
Frosted 5-1
Materiality 13-2
Mubtaahij 16-1
Madefromlucky 12-1
Tale of Verve 20-1
Keen Ice 25-1
Frammento 33-1
Source: Odds Shark
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Willie Neslon
Footballguy
Only 8 horses running? 3 less than last year. Field looks much softer.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Also with Carpe Diem out I've read the pace could be very soft with AP and Materiality likely getting out to an easy lead and therefore having a lot left in the stretch
I'll probably still be betting against but it looks a lot more likely than I originally thought
I'll probably still be betting against but it looks a lot more likely than I originally thought
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Who's going to like this distance? Can Keen Ice deep close at 1 1/2 when tactical speed often wins this race? Can Pharoah wire the field as he may attempt to do? Will Materiality be the other horse along with AP that pushed the pace early? Is Frosted better at 1.5 than he was at 1.25? Is Muhabchdsaigcvbdfhsjvbdjtij , being an overseas horse, better bred for this distance than his Yankee counterparts? Does Madefromlucky benefit from the home track advantage much as Tale of Verve apparently did in B'more? Speaking of Verve, he was downright sprightly in the stretch at Pimlico, even being blocked off by Dortmund, he got around him with ease and up for second. Is he still improving? Is there anything to like about Frammento?
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
This field is completely bull####.. how many of these horses ran the derby? What is this crappy crap?
IMO if you don't qualify for the derby, you shouldn't qualify for this.. what happened to all the derby horses? no interest in this race?
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
everyone but Madefromlucky and Tale of Verve ran in the Derby (lucky qualified but withdrew)
But keep up the tired schtick
But keep up the tired schtick
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Oh and carpe Diem would've been another derby horse to run but he wasn't 100% *cough* owners hold the breeding rights to American Pharoah *cough*
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Dentist maybe sit out horse racing threads for a bit.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
http://www.sbnation.com/2015/6/3/8720781/2015-belmont-stakes-post-positions-american-pharaoh
The 147th running of the Belmont Stakes will go to post at 6:50 p.m. (ET) Saturday.
Belmont Stakes post draw and morning line odds
1 Mubtaahij 10/1
2 Tale of Verve 15/1
3 Madefromlucky 12/1
4 Frammento 30/1
5 American Pharoah 3/5
6 Frosted 5/1
7 Keen Ice 20/1
8 Materialality 6/1
The 147th running of the Belmont Stakes will go to post at 6:50 p.m. (ET) Saturday.
Belmont Stakes post draw and morning line odds
1 Mubtaahij 10/1
2 Tale of Verve 15/1
3 Madefromlucky 12/1
4 Frammento 30/1
5 American Pharoah 3/5
6 Frosted 5/1
7 Keen Ice 20/1
8 Materialality 6/1
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Owners and trainers don't really want their prized colts running a mile and a half. This isn't brain surgery.
And if you hate this field, you would have lost your mind in 1973 when Secretariat faced only 4 other horses or 1978 when Affirmed was one of five horses in the field. Seattle Slew had it a little rougher, facing 7 other horses to win the Triple Crown.
Anyhow, they have to cap the Belmont at 90K fans for Saturday. Record crowds were too much for the track to handle last year. But maybe you can come up with some ideas to fix the sport.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
then the race shouldn't be that long if that's an issue.
They should all be the same length. Whatever is the most safe for the horses. I'm concerned about horse safety also.
I didn't even realize this was a problem.
Obviously this should be fixed STAT. Is this only obvious to me? Also I don't give two poops about the record attendance on Saturday, I want there to be record TV viewership and people talking about it just as much as the NBA finals.
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
The different lengths of the three races is what makes the triple crown so difficult to accomplish. That and running against fresh horses who may prefer the specific distance of a particular race.
The triple crown should be incredibly difficult to accomplish. it we had a triple crown winner every other year it wouldn't be special. I have heard people say that a triple crown winner would be great for the sport but i disagree. The thrill is in the chase. Once it happens people won't be as interested next year.
The triple crown should be incredibly difficult to accomplish. it we had a triple crown winner every other year it wouldn't be special. I have heard people say that a triple crown winner would be great for the sport but i disagree. The thrill is in the chase. Once it happens people won't be as interested next year.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I think you are alone on this one, dude. You sound like a complete moron in here. The Belmont is a grind for a reason. Winning the triple crown SHOULD be hard. This isn't 3rd grade sports where everybody gets a participation ribbon. Survival of the fittest. There's a reason why there has only been 11 TC winners in the sport's vaunted history.
As for your NBA comparison, you do realize that more people watched the Kentucky Derby than watched the 2014 NBA Finals, right?
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
Army Eye
Footballguy
I mostly agree, but I think there would be a good temporary spike in interest for horse racing IF the TC winner kept running. But we all know that won't happen unless it was a non-stallion that won
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Is this "I can make sport X great if they let me" schtick or do you really think this? You sound similar here as to when you start talking about fixing soccer.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
I've got a few fixes in mind for every sport or activity.They all need help but are too rooted in tradition.
Even sports I really like such as mlb, poker, and tennis are in need of massive overhauls imo.
Definitely a long running schtick
If you think the horse racing guys hate it, the ncaa men's tournament and college football guys really hate my ideas.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Why American Pharoah shouldn't be favored in the Belmont Stakes
By Pat Forde
ELMONT, N.Y. — American Pharoah is the 3-5 favorite to win the Belmont Stakes Saturday. That makes perfect sense, except for the reasonable rebuttal that it makes no sense at all.
When compared to his equine competition, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner has no competition at all. He has raced all seven other horses in the field, and dominated each of them.
Only Frosted, the second betting choice at 5-1, has come within seven lengths of American Pharoah in their last meeting. (He was beaten by more than three lengths while finishing fourth in the Derby May 2.) Materiality was beaten by about 7½ lengths in the Derby, Keen Ice by 8½, Mubtaahij by nine-plus and Frammento by nearly 12. In the Preakness, Tale of Verve was a distant second to American Pharoah, seven lengths back. And the last time Madefromlucky hooked up with the Belmont favorite, in the Arkansas Derby in April, he finished nine-plus lengths in arrears.
So there isn't a single horse in this field that the oddsmakers would reasonably put ahead of the Triple Crown aspirant.
But there is this inconvenient truth that clouds an otherwise clear picture: the Triple Crown aspirant never wins a race that in its recent history has been rife with flukish outcomes.
The favorite hasn't won in a decade, and has won just twice since 1995. Seven times this century, the winner has been a double-digit-odds long shot. Three times this century, the winner's odds have been 36-1 or higher.
The Belmont has been the burial ground of Triple Crown dreams, and of every bettor who fell in love with those favorites.
Thirteen times since 1978, the Derby and Preakness winner has swaggered into New York with an aura of seeming invincibility. Thirteen times, the handicappers have been seduced. The average price on the Triple Crown aspirant in the Belmont since Affirmed is .83 cents to the dollar. Only four of those favorites have been sent off at even money or higher.
In other words, they ranged from mortal locks (Spectacular Bid, Smarty Jones, Big Brown) to near-locks (Funny Cide, War Emblem, Charismatic). And every one of them has lost.
In fact, two-thirds of them haven't even finished in the top two. There have been four second-place finishes, four in third, two in fourth, one in seventh, one DNF (Big Brown) and one pre-race scratch (I'll Have Another).
When the lead-pipe lock favorite runs out of the top two at the Belmont, a whopper exacta payout is sure to happen. The all-timer was 2002, when War Emblem finished seventh – a Sarava (70-1) over Medaglia d'Oro (16-1) exacta paid $2,454 on a $2 bet. In '99, when Charismatic finished third, the Lemon Drop Kid (30-1) over Vision and Verse (55-1) exacta paid $1,537.
Those make the $660 exacta of 2008 (when Big Brown bombed) and the $348 exacta of last year (when California Chrome finished fourth) look paltry. And they're really not paltry.
That's why American Pharoah trainer Bob Baffert said last week that "the odds are against us." Technically, they're not. But in reality, they are.
So if you're looking for a Belmont betting strategy, this might be the best plan: buy a $2 souvenir win ticket on American Pharoah, then toss him out of your exactas and play for the home run.
Taking recent history into consideration, making American Pharoah the 3-5 favorite seems counterintuitive. But it's impossible to specify who should be favored to beat him. That's the conundrum.
This is less a case of who will beat American Pharoah than what will beat him. The Belmont itself should be installed as the 1-9 favorite Saturday.
It's a trap race – a 1½-mile marathon that will be harder for the horse that has done the most work to get this far. Baffert's splendid colt is the only one of the eight entrants to have run both legs of the Triple Crown – and this always seems like the time when the odometer reading becomes a problem.
American Pharoah dazzled a lot of veteran horsemen with his workout Monday at Churchill Downs. But Tuesday Baffert said something that raised an eyebrow, noting that his colt "looks like a horse that's run in two big races, but I think his energy level is good."
Trainers are congenital liars to the press, always saying their horses are doing splendidly. They make Baghdad Bob sound like a straight shooter. Thus Baffert even hinting that there is some wear and tear on American Pharoah is noteworthy.
One of the bigger potential advantages he had on the field may have disappeared with Wednesday's weather forecast. A horse who is a genuine mudlark, relishing a wet track, looks like he will encounter dry conditions Saturday at the track they call Big Sandy.
Once again, the racing gods are ratcheting up the odds against the horse trying to win the Triple Crown. Even if the betting public refuses to see it.
By Pat Forde
ELMONT, N.Y. — American Pharoah is the 3-5 favorite to win the Belmont Stakes Saturday. That makes perfect sense, except for the reasonable rebuttal that it makes no sense at all.
When compared to his equine competition, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner has no competition at all. He has raced all seven other horses in the field, and dominated each of them.
Only Frosted, the second betting choice at 5-1, has come within seven lengths of American Pharoah in their last meeting. (He was beaten by more than three lengths while finishing fourth in the Derby May 2.) Materiality was beaten by about 7½ lengths in the Derby, Keen Ice by 8½, Mubtaahij by nine-plus and Frammento by nearly 12. In the Preakness, Tale of Verve was a distant second to American Pharoah, seven lengths back. And the last time Madefromlucky hooked up with the Belmont favorite, in the Arkansas Derby in April, he finished nine-plus lengths in arrears.
So there isn't a single horse in this field that the oddsmakers would reasonably put ahead of the Triple Crown aspirant.
But there is this inconvenient truth that clouds an otherwise clear picture: the Triple Crown aspirant never wins a race that in its recent history has been rife with flukish outcomes.
The favorite hasn't won in a decade, and has won just twice since 1995. Seven times this century, the winner has been a double-digit-odds long shot. Three times this century, the winner's odds have been 36-1 or higher.
The Belmont has been the burial ground of Triple Crown dreams, and of every bettor who fell in love with those favorites.
Thirteen times since 1978, the Derby and Preakness winner has swaggered into New York with an aura of seeming invincibility. Thirteen times, the handicappers have been seduced. The average price on the Triple Crown aspirant in the Belmont since Affirmed is .83 cents to the dollar. Only four of those favorites have been sent off at even money or higher.
In other words, they ranged from mortal locks (Spectacular Bid, Smarty Jones, Big Brown) to near-locks (Funny Cide, War Emblem, Charismatic). And every one of them has lost.
In fact, two-thirds of them haven't even finished in the top two. There have been four second-place finishes, four in third, two in fourth, one in seventh, one DNF (Big Brown) and one pre-race scratch (I'll Have Another).
When the lead-pipe lock favorite runs out of the top two at the Belmont, a whopper exacta payout is sure to happen. The all-timer was 2002, when War Emblem finished seventh – a Sarava (70-1) over Medaglia d'Oro (16-1) exacta paid $2,454 on a $2 bet. In '99, when Charismatic finished third, the Lemon Drop Kid (30-1) over Vision and Verse (55-1) exacta paid $1,537.
Those make the $660 exacta of 2008 (when Big Brown bombed) and the $348 exacta of last year (when California Chrome finished fourth) look paltry. And they're really not paltry.
That's why American Pharoah trainer Bob Baffert said last week that "the odds are against us." Technically, they're not. But in reality, they are.
So if you're looking for a Belmont betting strategy, this might be the best plan: buy a $2 souvenir win ticket on American Pharoah, then toss him out of your exactas and play for the home run.
Taking recent history into consideration, making American Pharoah the 3-5 favorite seems counterintuitive. But it's impossible to specify who should be favored to beat him. That's the conundrum.
This is less a case of who will beat American Pharoah than what will beat him. The Belmont itself should be installed as the 1-9 favorite Saturday.
It's a trap race – a 1½-mile marathon that will be harder for the horse that has done the most work to get this far. Baffert's splendid colt is the only one of the eight entrants to have run both legs of the Triple Crown – and this always seems like the time when the odometer reading becomes a problem.
American Pharoah dazzled a lot of veteran horsemen with his workout Monday at Churchill Downs. But Tuesday Baffert said something that raised an eyebrow, noting that his colt "looks like a horse that's run in two big races, but I think his energy level is good."
Trainers are congenital liars to the press, always saying their horses are doing splendidly. They make Baghdad Bob sound like a straight shooter. Thus Baffert even hinting that there is some wear and tear on American Pharoah is noteworthy.
One of the bigger potential advantages he had on the field may have disappeared with Wednesday's weather forecast. A horse who is a genuine mudlark, relishing a wet track, looks like he will encounter dry conditions Saturday at the track they call Big Sandy.
Once again, the racing gods are ratcheting up the odds against the horse trying to win the Triple Crown. Even if the betting public refuses to see it.
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chet
Footballguy
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