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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (2 Viewers)

Kal El said:
Still, a hurricane doesn't have to slow down to turn.
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Not saying this is wrong, but can you point to a hurricane that didn't slow down on a turn?  The turn they are projecting here is basically 90 degrees.  So finding a cane with a similar track would be useful for my information.  

 
Galileo said:
Absolutely it does, at least in a particular direction.  Maybe you are confusing wind speed in the hurricane with the velocity of the eye across the surface of the globe.  A westerly moving system must slow down in the westerly direction in order to speed up towards the east.
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Ok, I see what you mean. I'm viewing it as turning a corner, a hurricane doesn't slow down to do so, or at least it doesn't have to.

 
culdeus said:
 I haven't one that just went up on two wheels as it made a turn.  
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That's because hurricanes only have one wheel. 

What category are we expecting right now for a mainland hit? It seems to be projected to hold 930ish mb up the full FL coast. 

 
[icon] said:
That's because hurricanes only have one wheel. 

What category are we expecting right now for a mainland hit? It seems to be projected to hold 930ish mb up the full FL coast. 
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NOAA says it will hit as a Cat 3+ and maintain Cat3+ until it exits back to the atlantic. Then ostensibly will hit SC/NC again as a Cat 3+ but that is not in the NOAA forecast yet at all.  They don't project anything higher than "Major" which is Cat 3+

 
culdeus said:
Not saying this is wrong, but can you point to a hurricane that didn't slow down on a turn?  The turn they are projecting here is basically 90 degrees.  So finding a cane with a similar track would be useful for my information.  
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I can't, at least none come to mind. However, that is how it was explained to me.

 
The whole gulf and east coast will be on edge until Saturday night, waiting to see when/if this thing turns for sure.  Crazy.

 
lod001 said:
Where ya think you are going? As it looks now, you are safe over there. The path is going to continue to move east. Taking all my plywood back to Lowes and I am east of you.
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I've seen hurricanes make a loop and slam into Florida. It's a wise decision to wait.

 
lod001 said:
Where ya think you are going? As it looks now, you are safe over there. The path is going to continue to move east. Taking all my plywood back to Lowes and I am east of you.
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It is way too early to be taking plywood back to a hardware store.  This thing isn't supposed to turn for days.  A lot can change.

 
Henry Ford said:
Anyone following the models this year and can say which are the most accurate?  UKMET this morning looks like landfall in Miami.
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The last 5 years the Euro ECMWF has been far and away the most reliable.  The next run comes out at 2pm Eastern.  

It will be posted here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090600&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=0

There are planes flying in and out of this thing all day and loons going up.  The models will start to get tight.  

 
culdeus said:
The last 5 years the Euro ECMWF has been far and away the most reliable.  The next run comes out at 2pm Eastern.  

It will be posted here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090600&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=0

There are planes flying in and out of this thing all day and loons going up.  The models will start to get tight.  
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Sure, but we're still 3-4 days from Florida, maybe 5-6 from landfall if it goes to South Carolina.  Way too much wiggle room in there.

 
TWC talked to one of the Hurricane professors at Univ of Miami. He had a real good point. Look to see how Puerto Rico make out. He basically said if PR gets hammered, then that's bad news for Miami. If it passes North of PR, then there's better chance of turning  before Miami (Since your starting point is better).

 
Kal El said:
I think the weaker side of a Category 3+ hurricane still isn't an ideal place.
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Last year Matthew (a cat 3 IIRC) passed right by West Palm near the coast...I couldn't believe the lack of damage after it passed. Merritt Island and Canaveral area got it much worse but being on the west side of a storm is actually much better than being on the east side. So thats about all one can hope for if a near direct hit is imminent

 
Wingnut said:
Last year Matthew (a cat 3 IIRC) passed right by West Palm near the coast...I couldn't believe the lack of damage after it passed. Merritt Island and Canaveral area got it much worse but being on the west side of a storm is actually much better than being on the east side. So thats about all one can hope for if a near direct hit is imminent
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My house is on the Treasure Coast, and all Matthew did was blow a few fence panels down. But the key is the wobble. He wobbled away.

 
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