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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

Where are you GregR?

Worst part is the uncertainty. Seen projections from 3"-5" up to 18"-24". So much is going to depend on where the storm decides to sit.

 
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So, ok, they just said that if the 5 foot thing comes true then it will take 6 weeks or more just to drain the basin.  

There is no contingency plan for this much water.  It could just basically turn into a lake that never really goes away.

 
GregR said:
Western outskirts of Houston. A little east of Highway 6 and Westheimer.
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Ok. Wasn't sure if you were actually near Corpus, Rockport or whatever. I guess you have a little longer to wait to see how bad it is going to get for you! Good luck, stay safe.

 
This is sounding like something you'd make up and no one would believe.

"Yeah, see... it's going to crawl ashore as a Cat4, then sit for 5 days and dump 3-5 feet of rain before drifting offshore to restrengthen and hit the gulf coast a second time."

Seriously hope you all are OK down there.  If it's not too late to go somewhere else...

 
I've been giving some serious thought to heading out for Austin or Dallas and staying with friends.

But I think if the house floods I'd rather be here to save what I can. Or even if it doesn't flood, if a window breaks and I need to cover it back up as best as I can or at least move electronics and such away from it.

 
culdeus said:
You dont want to be on the move during a flood. 
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I bet it's more that they didn't want Houstonians tying up the roads when people to the south are in more dire need of using those highways to get out.

It only took a day for Houston to clear out for Ike. We still have a day right now before it gets bad here probably.

 
GregR said:
I've been giving some serious thought to heading out for Austin or Dallas and staying with friends.

But I think if the house floods I'd rather be here to save what I can. Or even if it doesn't flood, if a window breaks and I need to cover it back up as best as I can or at least move electronics and such away from it.
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Flood hole?  @Koya

 
culdeus said:
Vegas
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If Houston has uninhabitable neighborhoods, you could see a migration to other cheaper cities. Hurricane Andrew accelerated the migration of people from Miami-Dade county into Broward and other places further north. Many people did have good insurance (wind storm) and came out ahead financially after Andrew. I wonder how many Houstonians have good wind storm and flood insurance.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
This is sounding like something you'd make up and no one would believe.

"Yeah, see... it's going to crawl ashore as a Cat4, then sit for 5 days and dump 3-5 feet of rain before drifting offshore to restrengthen and hit the gulf coast a second time."

Seriously hope you all are OK down there.  If it's not too late to go somewhere else...
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Might drift offshore, but I don't believe it will restrengthen. Sitting over land for a few days would turn it into a low-pressure system -- circulation wouldn't be maintained.

Not picking on you ... picking on the sources that are reporting this. I've heard similar, and I think it's hyperbolic.

 
Starting to pick up a bit here. Made a quick drive down to the corner to an ATM, and grabbed some chips, jerky, etc from a gas station. Rain coming down sideways and I got drenched getting over to the ATM.

 
SoBeDad said:
PlasmaDogPlasma said:
I'm curious as to why he advises Houstonians to ride it out?
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Where can you send 3 million people for a  couple of days?
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This is a good point, too.

Evacuation of the Houston area was attempted in advance of Hurricane Rita in September 2005. Far too many evacuees ended up stranded on the area interstates.

EDIT: Sheesh, the Rita evacuation problems were worse than I thought:
 

Evacuation deaths

As an estimated 2.5 – 3.7 million people evacuated the Texas coastline, a significant heat wave affected the region. The combination of severe gridlock and excessive heat led to between 90 and 118 deaths even before the storm arrived.[40][41] Reports from the Houston Chronicle indicated 107 evacuation-related fatalities. Texas Representative Garnet Coleman criticized the downplay of the deaths in the evacuation and questioned whether the storm would be deadlier than the preparations.[58] According to local officials, the traffic reached a point where residents felt safer riding out the storm at home rather than being stuck in traffic when Rita struck.[40] Many evacuees periodically turned off their air conditioning to reduce fuel consumption as well as drank less water to limit the number of "restroom stops." According to a post-storm study, which reported 90 evacuation-related deaths, nine people perished solely as a result of hyperthermia. However, it was suspected that most of the 67 deaths attributed to heat stress were a combination of hyperthermia and chronic health conditions.[41] In addition to the heat-related deaths, 23 nursing home evacuees were killed after a bus caught fire on Interstate 45 near Wilmer.[41] The bus erupted into flames after the vehicle's rear axle overheated, due to insufficient lubrication, and ignited therapeutic oxygen tanks on board.[59] According to a resident near the site of the accident, there were three explosions.[60] Many of the passengers were mobility-impaired making escape difficult or impossible.[61] In June 2009, nearly four years after the fire, families of those who died in the accident won an $80 million settlement against the manufacturer of the bus and the company that provided the nursing home with it.[59]
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Sorry to say that just east of the hurricane eye, as it lands is a HUGE Dow Chemical plant. And lots and lots more refineries all the way to Beaumont.

But the storm surge that will imminently hit Dow concerns me the most.

 
Doug B said:
Might drift offshore, but I don't believe it will restrengthen. Sitting over land for a few days would turn it into a low-pressure system -- circulation wouldn't be maintained.
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While it is overland, the backside remains over the gulf, providing fuel to keep it going. This isn't one that is going to move over land and just peter out unfortunately.

 
DallasDMac said:
While it is overland, the backside remains over the gulf, providing fuel to keep it going. This isn't one that is going to move over land and just peter out unfortunately.
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Yes, but the frontside continuously brings in dry air from over land. And really, coastal waters tend to weaken tropical systems anyway. Harvey cannot remain at even tropical storm strength for very long if it's eye is parked over land.

 
Doug B said:
Yes, but the frontside continuously brings in dry air from over land. And really, coastal waters tend to weaken tropical systems anyway. Harvey cannot remain at even tropical storm strength for very long if it's eye is parked over land.
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:shrug:

Meteorologists apparently disagree with you. But believe me, I am rooting for you to be right! I haven't been this worried about a weather event in a long time.

 
DallasDMac said:
:shrug:

Meteorologists apparently disagree with you. But believe me, I am rooting for you to be right! I haven't been this worried about a weather event in a long time.
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Now, Harvey can come ashore, lose a lot of wind speed, and still stay parked a while and make rain even if the circulation gets choppy. So I'm not saying Harvey isn't going to do damage -- I'm saying that Harvey won't be the meteorologic equivalent of Jason Voorhies.

 
I have to say, it really bothers me that the SA news channels are sending so many local forecasters down to the coast. I don't need to see a guy with a child and a pregnant wife standing in the 100 mph winds in Corpus to know that a hurricane is bad. What are they trying to accomplish? They have several SA forecasters out in all the worst areas with some even reporting live from the roads as they drive SOUTH in to the storm. Needless risk to someone's life in my opinion.

 
Doug B said:
Yes, but the frontside continuously brings in dry air from over land. And really, coastal waters tend to weaken tropical systems anyway. Harvey cannot remain at even tropical storm strength for very long if it's eye is parked over land.
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Not to mention the water and heat that fuels a hurricane have been seriously churned from the first pass. No, this system has enough danger from the flooding...you don't need to worry about a significant restrengthening after initial landfall. Sadly, it doesn't need to be much though tropical system-wise to continue to swamp the area with continued rain. I think the Euro is just being silly with 4 to 5 feet stuff though.  1 to 3 feet is no picnic however.

 
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Popping to a Cat 4 right before land isn't good at all.  Places like Port Lavaca will see ridiculous storm surges.  Very lucky Corpus Christi is on the west side.  

This thing reminds me of Hurricane Juan, just a lot bigger - random walk around the coast and dump an unimaginable amount of rain (I saw some spots were predicted at 53").

 
As someone who #### his pants for two days last year when Matthew ravaged the east coast of FL, I know exactly what my TX friends are going through. Hoping for the best, stay safe and good luck everyone.

 
My company has offices throughout TX and we got an email yesterday asking for 250 volunteers to do house checks over the next 3 weeks in cities up and down the coast on behalf of FEMA (client).  Hoping everyone stays safe down there and Harvey just fades away quickly so life can get back to normal.

 
Still in good shape but it hasn't really picked up yet. Water rose in part of the backyard last night but most of it has drained out now.

Neighbor has a car parked out in the street where it is sure to flood. Don't think they were here the last big storm we had, going to head over in a few minutes once I figure they'll be awake, and let them know they can put it in my driveway if they need as theirs is already filled up with cars.

 
GregR said:
Still in good shape but it hasn't really picked up yet. Water rose in part of the backyard last night but most of it has drained out now.

Neighbor has a car parked out in the street where it is sure to flood. Don't think they were here the last big storm we had, going to head over in a few minutes once I figure they'll be awake, and let them know they can put it in my driveway if they need as theirs is already filled up with cars.
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Kudos for the neighborly approach. 

Are your storms drains clear? During Matthew we had a lot of tree debris blocking ours and I had to go out during a relative lull and clear it.

Stay safe.

 
Ok. Models seem to be thinking it peters out. Thursday.....  Jesus.  

Dont see any models having it turn out to sea.  

 
Heavy stuff not due in to SA for awhile yet. For us, it is winds and sustained rain, which is better than 10" getting dumped all at once. At least it'll be spread from now until Monday morning. Took the opportunity to run out for breakfast tacos and swung by the grocery store. Now I know how North Koreans feel. Not one single quart of real milk available. Only Almond type stuff. Poor fire fighter had to buy some because the station was out and he needed something for the unit. Bread, lunch meat, juice, all cleaned out (juice, really?). Had to buy an off brand toilet paper (oh the horror). On the bright side, I was able to stock the beer fridge.

 
culdeus said:
Dont see any models having it turn out to sea. 
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The odds of this happening were always vanishingly low, and the latest 5-day tracking map appears to confirm that Harvey will stay over land and diminish.

EDIT: "Diminish" doesn't mean it will stop making rain, though. Just that it will lose wind speed (already down to very weak Cat 1) and circulation.

 
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JaxBill said:
GregR said:
Still in good shape but it hasn't really picked up yet. Water rose in part of the backyard last night but most of it has drained out now.

Neighbor has a car parked out in the street where it is sure to flood. Don't think they were here the last big storm we had, going to head over in a few minutes once I figure they'll be awake, and let them know they can put it in my driveway if they need as theirs is already filled up with cars.
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Kudos for the neighborly approach. 

Are your storms drains clear? During Matthew we had a lot of tree debris blocking ours and I had to go out during a relative lull and clear it.

Stay safe.
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Thanks, and good idea. I'll go check them.

The quiet morning pretty much continued for me. East side of Houston got hit with a lot of rain from a band it looks like, but haven't had too much worse than a few brief showers and drizzling. Spent more time preparing the house, making extra space on counters and shelves for more important things, brought in some cement blocks I had outside that I can use to prop up a few things higher, etc. Making extra ice with partially filled plastic bags and loading up a cooler with them.

 
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