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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (4 Viewers)

Parents made it up to some family cabins near the GA/TN Border yesterday. Took them 14 hours to make it 580 miles up from Bradenton. Lots of stop and go traffic. Now it appears they got out just in time as traffic is reportedly at a standstill and they just announced an optional evacuation of their area of Manatee county. 

My brother's wife is not allowed to leave work (Dir of Sales for Retirement community) so she and my brother will be sheltering at their facility in Port St Lucie. It makes me nervous but he said it's a large CBD building so they should be okay. Their youngest daughter's 7th birthday is today... she and her older sister are with my parents up in Georgia. Hoping they all head west to Memphis tomorrow before the remnants of this storm pass through that area.... not to mention I'd love to see them.

Be safe everyone. 

 
Google maps says it's slow traffic from North of Orlando/Tampa most of the way to Valdosta and then south of Macon all the way to Atlanta.

 
[icon] said:
Parents made it up to some family cabins near the GA/TN Border yesterday. Took them 14 hours to make it 580 miles up from Bradenton. Lots of stop and go traffic. Now it appears they got out just in time as traffic is reportedly at a standstill and they just announced an optional evacuation of their area of Manatee county. 

My brother's wife is not allowed to leave work (Dir of Sales for Retirement community) so she and my brother will be sheltering at their facility in Port St Lucie. It makes me nervous but he said it's a large CBD building so they should be okay. Their youngest daughter's 7th birthday is today... she and her older sister are with my parents up in Georgia. Hoping they all head west to Memphis tomorrow before the remnants of this storm pass through that area.... not to mention I'd love to see them.

Be safe everyone. 
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I don't know what a CBD building is.... is it made from CMU? 

 
Henry Ford said:
For those in South Florida, this is probably your last day to prep and get out, I'd imagine.  With winds extending a couple hundred miles out from this storm, you don't want to be stuck in traffic on late Saturday in the middle of the State.  I hope everyone's good with their decisions and preparing as is necessary, but also hope anyone South and (especially) East of Lake Okeechobee will consider the option to GTFO.
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For those who haven't seen this yet:

Difference between Category 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, winds.

 
So the general observation is holding.  Models walk east all night, then turn west all day.  Been that way for 72 hours now.

NWS has been slowly walking the cone E.  

 
culdeus said:
So the general observation is holding.  Models walk east all night, then turn west all day.  Been that way for 72 hours now.

NWS has been slowly walking the cone E.  
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UKMET has been pretty steadily moving toward a Naples hit, though, hasn't it?

 
Wow. Georgia governor issued mandatory evacuation of Chatham county. That is all of Savannah. 

Weird to see a governor do that.

 
DA RAIDERS said:
that's ivan's  soggy dollar is to the left of that picture.  i spent many many days there.  including my honeymoon.
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ah- thanks. I misremembered soggy dollar being at the end of the beach.

doubt it's going to look much different than Ivans, tbh.

checked their FB page and there's only a comment from a relative off-island saying they hadn't heard anything yet and to be patient.

 
Coastal areas in Pinellas County are now mandatory evac tomorrow morning early...that's St Pete Beach, Clearwater Beach, etc...and on the bay side at downtown St Pete up to Oldsmar.

 
culdeus said:
Euro moved a tiny bit west and a tiny bit weaker than yesterday.  927 dead center landfall.
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I guess tiny is relative in regards to a hurricane but to me it looks like it now has tracked west and may split the southern tip of the state.   Which of course would be bad.  Then it looks like it comes into SC a little more North than originally thought.

 
For those evacuating I95 thru Jacksonville take I295 West loop (Orange Park ) around town. 

Major accident on I95N in downtown.  

I295 East loop was poorly designed, under construction, and is backed up on a normal day.

ETA I295 West loop let's you either hook up with I10 or loop all the way around town and rejoin I95

 
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culdeus said:
Euro moved a tiny bit west and a tiny bit weaker pressure (higher) than yesterday.  927 dead center landfall.

Someone on wunderground overlay yesterday and today model which is useful:

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6a7fd01606a264b10285e693363681348eaf620b8efaba8371f5f6e76f7abfe8.gif
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That western move is bad though. Puts Miami square in the worst part of the storm for storm surge, and brings worse effects inland, the center passes close to Orlando. Only good would be that it would weaken faster. But these runs tend to move around a bit. No individual run is a guarantee, but this storm is looking worse and worse for Miami.

 
El Floppo said:
ah- thanks. I misremembered soggy dollar being at the end of the beach.

doubt it's going to look much different than Ivans, tbh.

checked their FB page and there's only a comment from a relative off-island saying they hadn't heard anything yet and to be patient.
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i'll hear about it soon.  my sister is friends with the family that bought the hotel that is behind the soggy dollar.

 
Kilgore Trout said:
That western move is bad though. Puts Miami square in the worst part of the storm for storm surge, and brings worse effects inland, the center passes close to Orlando. Only good would be that it would weaken faster. But these runs tend to move around a bit. No individual run is a guarantee, but this storm is looking worse and worse for Miami.
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At this point I am not seeing a "best case" scenario for Miami.  They are screwed royally.

 
Euro has it hitting southern tip of florida, going up the peninsula and then hitting western Georgia and northern Alabama.   That's new

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Euro has it hitting southern tip of florida, going up the peninsula and then hitting western Georgia and northern Alabama.   That's new
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Come on.  I managed to get a frigging hotel room in Atlanta, now it's going to go that way?  Man, #### Irma right in the eye.  Just turn out to sea, you rotten ####.

 
Alright, I'm out. We aren't sticking around Miami and will be heading up to Panama City Beach. It's outside the cone so that' about as close as we can stay to Miami without being in the cone. We'll bail sometime late tonight and hopefully get there by noon or so. Full tank of gas along with an extra container (small) of fuel. I have a reservation through Tuesday and we'll start heading back south after that. A lot of my neighbors are staying, including some who live in some of the original bungalows (1950's) that were built in this area. Not what I would feel comfortable with but we can only do so much. I have helped a neighbor clean out her gutters, gave another some food or water and yet another a bunch of excess plywood that we had. 

I'm glad that we are going to get out but also feel a little weird leaving my home and hoping it makes it through intact. 

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Come on.  I managed to get a frigging hotel room in Atlanta, now it's going to go that way?  Man, #### Irma right in the eye.  Just turn out to sea, you rotten ####.
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I don't know who or what to believe.  Someone I read yesterday said there's no way it's going up the peninsula of Florida and that it will pick one of the coasts.  Others are pretty much stuck on the Euro.  I think the only certainty is at least some part of Florida is going to get nailed

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
I don't know who or what to believe.  Someone I read yesterday said there's no way it's going up the peninsula of Florida and that it will pick one of the coasts.  Others are pretty much stuck on the Euro.  I think the only certainty is at least some part of Florida is going to get nailed
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When the people who went to school for this and are paid to know what they are talking about don't know I always find it funny how people who are completely clueless have an opinion or take.  We don't know what it's going to do - it's MOTHER ####### NATURE - she'll do whatever she wants.

 
Senor Schmutzig said:
Alright, I'm out. We aren't sticking around Miami and will be heading up to Panama City Beach. It's outside the cone so that' about as close as we can stay to Miami without being in the cone. We'll bail sometime late tonight and hopefully get there by noon or so. Full tank of gas along with an extra container (small) of fuel. I have a reservation through Tuesday and we'll start heading back south after that. A lot of my neighbors are staying, including some who live in some of the original bungalows (1950's) that were built in this area. Not what I would feel comfortable with but we can only do so much. I have helped a neighbor clean out her gutters, gave another some food or water and yet another a bunch of excess plywood that we had. 

I'm glad that we are going to get out but also feel a little weird leaving my home and hoping it makes it through intact. 
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I feel like you may be signifcantly underestimating your travel time. My folks took 14 hours for a comparable distance (580mi) but they: 

1) Left early yesterday, beating the rush
2) were going from bradenton to northern georgia near TN. 

Traffic is MUCH worse now. You guys are leaving the worst area under mandatory evacuation and just driving into the gut of a mass exodus and will be in horribly clogged roads the entire way. If you make it in 20 hours, I'll be impressed.... 24 isn't out of the realm of possibility IMO. Good luck. Be prepared. 

 

 
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AAABatteries said:
When the people who went to school for this and are paid to know what they are talking about don't know I always find it funny how people who are completely clueless have an opinion or take.  We don't know what it's going to do - it's MOTHER ####### NATURE - she'll do whatever she wants.
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Local guy in Tampa who seems pretty sharp doesn't seem concerned about our area yet. I can't read the loons on twitter or Facebook, everybody has every city going under water. Geez. 

 
They say not to pay too much attention to a single run of a single model but THAT may make the 5PM NHC cone very interesting. (and not in a good way)

 
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