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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (3 Viewers)

The Duff Man said:
The cone seems very small considering it looks like a 30 degree turn this thing is going to make. 

If it was going straight and they were forecasting it to wobble, that would be one thing, but does anyone know how they can so accurately predict both the location and magnitude of a turn this big?

What are the unexpected factors that could still make this a harder or shallower turn?
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The complexity of the pressures are low here. There is just one ridge to turn it and its the most heavily studied garden variety cold front in human history. 

 
Wingnut said:
This is awesome. These hotspots are literally everywhere. I've got 20+ within a quarter mile of my house.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/timesnews/free-internet-in-florida-comcast-makes-xfinity-wifi-hotspots-free-to-all/2336508

Free internet in Florida: Comcast makes Xfinity wifi hotspots free to all during Hurricane Irma

Cable and internet provider Comcast is offering free internet across Florida through Sept. 15 to help residents and emergency personnel stay connected during Hurricane Irma.

The company is opening its more than 137,000 Xfinity wifi hotspots throughout the state to anyone who needs them, including non-Xfinity customers, it said in a news release on Wednesday.

"For a map of Xfinity WiFi hotspots, which are located both indoors and outdoors in places such as shopping districts, parks and businesses, please visit Xfinity.com/wifi," the release said.

Once in range of a hotspot, select the "xfinitywifi" network name in the list of available networks. Xfinity internet customers can sign in with their usernames and passwords, while non-Xfinity internet subscribers should click "Not an Xfinity Internet Customer."

Non-customers will be able to renew their complimentary sessions every two hours, the company said

Hotspot map. Just enter your address.

 http://hotspots.wifi.xfinity.com/mobile/index.php
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Do they still work if everyone loses power?

 
Osaurus said:
Not in Tampa, but Zone A evac in Pinellas was issued yesterday.  I'm out of all evac zones as I am east of 75.  82 feet elevation here :flex:  :P
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Thanks. Son is in apartment across the street from USF. Temple Terrace looks to be in okay zone.

 
Local met said according to latest advisory  that metro JAX could expect sustain winds of 55  with gusts to 70 and 9 to 12 inches of rain.

Leaning towards staying

 
so, I think it's well known I am a roto player killah.  I mention a player, I roster a guy, I talk about trading for a guy, he inevitably dies.  so, last 2 years we have vacationed in September in Key Biscayne and loved it.  this year we decided on cancun in November.  I can't help but feel personally responsible for when Key Biscayne no longer exists after this.  obviously cancun will be next year.  thorry. 

 
I really can't believe that an estimated 10,000 people (cnn reporter) are staying on the Keys to ride this out.  This may sound insensitive, but is there a way to watch them on Facebook or a live stream during the filming of their eventual demise? Is it a hashtag or something?  I don't really understand all that.  I want to be able to show it to my idiot family members who would do the same thing.  Thanks and sorry if that's too dark.

 
PIK95 said:
I really can't believe that an estimated 10,000 people (cnn reporter) are staying on the Keys to ride this out.  This may sound insensitive, but is there a way to watch them on Facebook or a live stream during the filming of their eventual demise? Is it a hashtag or something?  I don't really understand all that.  I want to be able to show it to my idiot family members who would do the same thing.  Thanks and sorry if that's too dark.
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There will be no shortage of facebook lives.  

 
PIK95 said:
I really can't believe that an estimated 10,000 people (cnn reporter) are staying on the Keys to ride this out.  This may sound insensitive, but is there a way to watch them on Facebook or a live stream during the filming of their eventual demise? Is it a hashtag or something?  I don't really understand all that.  I want to be able to show it to my idiot family members who would do the same thing.  Thanks and sorry if that's too dark.
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These people have been through a lot of storms.  They know how to prep their homes.  Concrete structures built to code will hold up in this if they're secured properly.

 
Chemical X said:
so, I think it's well known I am a roto player killah.  I mention a player, I roster a guy, I talk about trading for a guy, he inevitably dies.  so, last 2 years we have vacationed in September in Key Biscayne and loved it.  this year we decided on cancun in November.  I can't help but feel personally responsible for when Key Biscayne no longer exists after this.  obviously cancun will be next year.  thorry. 
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Where have you stayed in Key Biscayne?  We were just about to book our annual December trip to the Ritz in Key Biscayne when this Hurricane showed up. I thought well must be because we are planning a trip to the Miami area that it became the bullseye.  

Still would like to go but holding off booking for now to see how badly hit.  

 
Huge disagreement on the intensity forecast. Next 4 hours will tell the story on that as it interacts with Cuba. 

 
PIK95 said:
I really can't believe that an estimated 10,000 people (cnn reporter) are staying on the Keys to ride this out.  This may sound insensitive, but is there a way to watch them on Facebook or a live stream during the filming of their eventual demise? Is it a hashtag or something?  I don't really understand all that.  I want to be able to show it to my idiot family members who would do the same thing.  Thanks and sorry if that's too dark.
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They will be fine as long as they are in a bunker and have enough oxygen tanks for their scuba gear to last a few hours.

 
Grahamburn said:
These people have been through a lot of storms.  They know how to prep their homes.  Concrete structures built to code will hold up in this if they're secured properly.
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Mayor dude just said the keys would be totally submerged. Not sure how you prepare for that.

 
PIK95 said:
I really can't believe that an estimated 10,000 people (cnn reporter) are staying on the Keys to ride this out.  This may sound insensitive, but is there a way to watch them on Facebook or a live stream during the filming of their eventual demise? Is it a hashtag or something?  I don't really understand all that.  I want to be able to show it to my idiot family members who would do the same thing.  Thanks and sorry if that's too dark.
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Think that is most annoying is that when they get in trouble they are going to call for help and that could put other people in harms way.  So selfish to stay.  

 
Chemical X said:
so, I think it's well known I am a roto player killah.  I mention a player, I roster a guy, I talk about trading for a guy, he inevitably dies.  so, last 2 years we have vacationed in September in Key Biscayne and loved it.  this year we decided on cancun in November.  I can't help but feel personally responsible for when Key Biscayne no longer exists after this.  obviously cancun will be next year.  thorry. 
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We can share the blame. In 1994 I attended an earthquake seminar that ended the Friday before Norhridge hit. This summer I agreed to return to working disasters full time again. My start date is tomorrow. I'm in standby to go be staged in AL to be at the ready to head in to FL as soon as possible. 

 
Redwes25 said:
Where have you stayed in Key Biscayne?  We were just about to book our annual December trip to the Ritz in Key Biscayne when this Hurricane showed up. I thought well must be because we are planning a trip to the Miami area that it became the bullseye.  

Still would like to go but holding off booking for now to see how badly hit.  
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Went to the Ritz in 2015 & 2016, so I have teh knowledge.

 
Keys mayor said the shelters will not be manned and abandoned.  With the storm surge as it is probably not survivable. 

Bet some change their mind. 

 
PIK95 said:
Mayor dude just said the keys would be totally submerged. Not sure how you prepare for that.
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they did a 3D graphic on the weather channel last night showing a house and then a measuring stick for storm surge. They said at 3-4 feet, cars can begin to float, 4-5 its over for most anyone's 1st floor. The real danger is what is floating and moving around in the water at that point. Nothing really stays stationary. And at a certain point, it could literally lift a house. 

Even people up in high rises should evac b/c if the surge gets too high, it may not affect your unit directly but your building becomes its own island and almost impossible to leave. 

 
lod001 said:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50217-monster-category-5-hurricane-irma/?page=214

Whole lotta people posting info on this forum.
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That is a fantastic link. Thanks! 

Wow so this storm has the wind-speeds of Andrew.... but 5.5x higher IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) which measures overall storm power (wind, surge, etc). This is evidenced by the 50ft storm surges that crushed turks and Caicos last night. 

Well..####. Cant imagine 40-50ft surges into downtown Miami...

 
glvsav37 said:
they did a 3D graphic on the weather channel last night showing a house and then a measuring stick for storm surge. They said at 3-4 feet, cars can begin to float, 4-5 its over for most anyone's 1st floor. The real danger is what is floating and moving around in the water at that point. Nothing really stays stationary. And at a certain point, it could literally lift a house. 

Even people up in high rises should evac b/c if the surge gets too high, it may not affect your unit directly but your building becomes its own island and almost impossible to leave. 
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During Sandy, I lived in an apartment complex of ten buildings of eight units each, 4 on the bottom floor and 4 on the top.

A couple people that stayed ended up trapped in the lower apartments without any means of egress. One guy rode out the surge on top of his fridge. Another woman had to wade through 4 feet of water with a cat under each arm. I'd be real cautious about staying without the means to get a couple dozen feet at least above sea level.

 
Gawain said:
During Sandy, I lived in an apartment complex of ten buildings of eight units each, 4 on the bottom floor and 4 on the top.

A couple people that stayed ended up trapped in the lower apartments without any means of egress. One guy rode out the surge on top of his fridge. Another woman had to wade through 4 feet of water with a cat under each arm. I'd be real cautious about staying without the means to get a couple dozen feet at least above sea level.
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yea you think about it, 4 feet is an average above ground pool.....everywhere. 1 or 2 feet higher and you run out of room inside a 1 story house real quick, Then where do you go? Cant go outside if the surge is happening during the storm. 

Where were you during Sandy? i'm on long island, so I knew it well...we didn't have any issues b/c i was inland (basically the exact middle of LI) but i had friends on the outer edges.  

 
glvsav37 said:
yea you think about it, 4 feet is an average above ground pool.....everywhere. 1 or 2 feet higher and you run out of room inside a 1 story house real quick, Then where do you go? Cant go outside if the surge is happening during the storm. 

Where were you during Sandy? i'm on long island, so I knew it well...we didn't have any issues b/c i was inland (basically the exact middle of LI) but i had friends on the outer edges.  
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I was in Oceanside, right near the East Rockaway train station.
This was my story right after the storm: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/664530-hurricane-sandy/?do=findComment&comment=14963538

Things worked out fairly well for me (moved to a vacant upstairs apartment, building was stripped on the bottom, so didn't worry about mold and didn't get charged rent for 6 months. We lost an ironing board. In hindsight, it was two inches that got into our apartment building and I got it out very quickly.)

Others were not so fortunate. There are still vacant houses in East Rockaway/Bay Park and there are still houses being raised. 5 years later after a storm that was only surge. I shudder to think what Florida could look like with a surge equal to or greater than Sandy with 150 MPH winds on top of it.

 
We are in the middle of creating contingency plans for work right now...       Really worried about this one down there

 
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I really don't like that it completed an eyewall replacement right before hitting the warmest waters it will hit. 

 
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Jose now a cat 4 looking like 5. 

Could have 11 categories of canes in the Atlantic basin at same time by lunch. 

 
Half my friends that still haven't left south Florida are now wishing they did and are nervous about getting stuck on the highway if they leave now. The other half are making jokes about going to the beach and going fishing today. 

 
In the past, how have nuclear power plants endured hurricanes? Make out okay for the most part?

I saw this:

"FPL has two nuclear power plants including the St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant in St. Lucie, Florida (Hutchinson Island) and Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station. Combined, these two plants produce more than 3,000 megawatts of energy."

 
Henry Ford said:
I really don't like that it completed an eyewall replacement right before hitting the warmest waters it will hit. 
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Seems like a recipe for disaster, doesn't it.  Glad my family got out.  Soon it will be time to be watching the timing carefully too.  The tides are not huge in Florida, but for coastal areas a few feet of water one way or the other will be quite meaningful when coupled with storm surges.  Wind direction too.

 
My parents condo in Naples is 1 mile from estuaries, and 1 and a half from open ocean. They are at four feet above sea level.  My sister's place is about 4 and a half miles from open ocean, is 7 feet above sea level, but they are in a neighborhood that does not have canals, the nearest being a mile away, so the water cannot run in from the ocean quite so easily.  My parents condo, on the other hand, sits 100 feet off a canal that has a straight shot to an estuary at the end of a bit of a natural harbor/bay.  storm surges when the wind and barometer are right can pump water right in there.  That canal is a real nice amenity for the boaters, but is a real nut buster during bad storms.

 
Ditkaless Wonders said:
My parents condo in Naples is 1 mile from estuaries, and 1 and a half from open ocean. They are at four feet above sea level.  My sister's place is about 4 and a half miles from open ocean, is 7 feet above sea level, but they are in a neighborhood that does not have canals, the nearest being a mile away, so the water cannot run in from the ocean quite so easily.  My parents condo, on the other hand, sits 100 feet off a canal that has a straight shot to an estuary at the end of a bit of a natural harbor/bay.  storm surges when the wind and barometer are right can pump water right in there.  That canal is a real nice amenity for the boaters, but is a real nut buster during bad storms.
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With that avatar :lol:

 
This schmuck on CNN from Miami Beach explaining why he's staying while holding his 4 yo son, with a one year old at home also. 

 
eoMMan said:
In the past, how have nuclear power plants endured hurricanes? Make out okay for the most part?

I saw this:

"FPL has two nuclear power plants including the St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant in St. Lucie, Florida (Hutchinson Island) and Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station. Combined, these two plants produce more than 3,000 megawatts of energy."
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Turkey Point suffered $90 million in damage during Andrew from a direct hit, but there was no release of radiation. The reactors are 20 feet high. It was on backup generators for over a week. Both plants are on shutdown.

 
culdeus said:
This is probably the best source to camp out on right now for latest info  Wunderground forums are unreadable as are many others being inundated with trolls and people asking for very specific forecasts for their own street.

https://www.reddit.com/live/zkadef2ttzql/
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Wow:

Eric Holthaus ✔ @EricHolthaus

From left-to-right: Katia, Irma, and Jose.
Collectively, this is the most active (strength + size) the Atlantic has been in recorded history

 
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