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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (2 Viewers)

Latest recon not much different. Think going back cat 5 is probably not happening. Running out of time to bomb out. 

 
flapgreen said:
My buddy's father-in-law lives right in the water in Clearwater. Just texted him who to call and where the will is. They're riding this #### out. WTF! 
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The problem is what happens after. My Dad & Mom road out Kat. Did (relatively) fine. - Next day, after the storm, a giant oak came through the roof into their bedroom (thankfully without them in there). Then they decided to evacuate.

 
Turn from WNW to NW has happened.  Next it'll go straight North.  How long it gets to do that before hitting land should decide the strength it can get to.  

New projections have it staying high end Cat3 at landfall. 

 
Henry Ford said:
Turn from WNW to NW has happened.  Next it'll go straight North.  How long it gets to do that before hitting land should decide the strength it can get to.  

New projections have it staying high end Cat3 at landfall. 
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Yes. Looking like Cuba calmed things down. Jose has higher winds atm. 

 
Henry Ford said:
Turn from WNW to NW has happened.  Next it'll go straight North.  How long it gets to do that before hitting land should decide the strength it can get to.  

New projections have it staying high end Cat3 at landfall. 
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Where are you getting this from.  Looking at models and cone is west of central FL. Link?

 
Henry Ford said:
Turn from WNW to NW has happened.  Next it'll go straight North.  How long it gets to do that before hitting land should decide the strength it can get to.  

New projections have it staying high end Cat3 at landfall. 
Click to expand...
The NHC discussion says there may be some restrengthening as it moves towards FLA, but then some shear combined with interaction with land will keep if from getting back to Cat 4. Which if that holds, is great news, although a strong Cat 3 is nothing to sneeze at. Actually the latest recon only found surface winds of 95 knots (110 mph), but they kept the official winds at 105 to be conservative. The online weather nerds are questioning the NHC's analysis, but I hope the NHC is right and this doesn't get back to Cat 4.

 
Henry Ford said:
Turn from WNW to NW has happened.  Next it'll go straight North.  How long it gets to do that before hitting land should decide the strength it can get to.  

New projections have it staying high end Cat3 at landfall. 
Click to expand...
You have to hope the centrifugal force on that sharp turn doesn't cause it to drift up toward Biloxi/New Orleans

 
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Latest GFS model is back east, which I find a little strange. Landfall around Naples it appears. Honestly, an earlier landfall is better as far as restrengthening goes, and spares Tampa. Unfortunately with these situations, someone has to take a hit. I still am skeptical of this model run given how far west everything has moved. I would have let culdeus make this update, but he may be busy.  :pickle:

 
Looks like Cedar Key my favorite weekend get away spot is going to be underwater again.Seems like it happens every year to those poor folks.

 
Some pasta company HAS to make a commercial with spaghetti models.

ETA  - or a Wanna Get Away commercial where some TV  weather person presents human spaghetti models 

 
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cosjobs said:
You have to hope the centrifugal force on that sharp turn doesn't cause it to drift up toward Biloxi/New Orleans
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I have worried about this as well, and I suppose there is a tiny chance that it could still happen, but people smarter than myself say the cold front pushing down will prevent Irma from moving any further west into the Gulf. 

 
Current direction forecast suggests this thing is going over Key West the same way it did Barbuda.  At least it's weaker now. 

 
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