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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

Slapdash said:
Many of these homes should not have been in the first place probably but, yeah, the floodplains drastically underestimated this.
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The problem is going to be that what happened was they never evaluated downstream effects of upstream construction.  This is what really hurt Sandy. Lots of downstreaming.

I don't want to make this political, but Trump signed an EO which invalidated a late Obama Sandy reg which would have required investigation into downstreaming about 7 days before landfall.  

Nobody has any clue what to do here.  If upstream construction puts you in a 100year zone who pays?  Does the city need to remediate the land? What happens if it is over multiple boundaries?  Who steps in?

Trump is certainly taking away the liability from developers, at the signing of this he said something to the effect of "I've made a ton of money in coastal properties"  great we are all thrilled.

 
culdeus said:
The problem is going to be that what happened was they never evaluated downstream effects of upstream construction.  This is what really hurt Sandy. Lots of downstreaming.

I don't want to make this political, but Trump signed an EO which invalidated a late Obama Sandy reg which would have required investigation into downstreaming about 7 days before landfall.  

Nobody has any clue what to do here.  If upstream construction puts you in a 100year zone who pays?  Does the city need to remediate the land? What happens if it is over multiple boundaries?  Who steps in?

Trump is certainly taking away the liability from developers, at the signing of this he said something to the effect of "I've made a ton of money in coastal properties"  great we are all thrilled.
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I may have posted this in another thread, but an interesting read:  https://projects.propublica.org/houston-cypress/

 
Please keep the political bickering away from this thread. There is a sub forum for it. We need to be able to share real information, not wade through discussions whether or not things should have been done this way or that.

 
One of my employees lives in New Territory - Mandatory evacuation as of last night. If the Brazos crests as predicted (59'), she will lose everything.  Good god.

 
Workhorse said:
One of my employees lives in New Territory - Mandatory evacuation as of last night. If the Brazos crests as predicted (59'), she will lose everything.  Good god.
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YEah, the latest I heard is that it will. Not a good scenario. I think they want everyone out ASAP. We have a water plant neighboring our subdivision, they are frantically trying to secure it now, or all of Pearland (east at least) risk losing water for a long time.

 
charvik said:
YEah, the latest I heard is that it will. Not a good scenario. I think they want everyone out ASAP. We have a water plant neighboring our subdivision, they are frantically trying to secure it now, or all of Pearland (east at least) risk losing water for a long time.
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Brutal. Stay safe.

She texted me a few hours ago that she's staying with friends in Sugarland and they are largely dry at the moment.

 
Massively proud over how the neighborhood is responding to this adversity. We are running clothes, new underwear, hot food, drinking water, dog crates, and everything else we can think of to support the first responders, fire fighters, police and all volunteers. 4 truck loads so far. :thumbup:

 
Call has gone out that the spillway run-over will STOP prior to the upstream cresting based on current models.  This could happen as soon as Thursday.  Sooner this stops the better.  

So this means at this point the flooding should theoretically be worst case right at this point in time.  If the Brazos models go to the worst case (unexpected) will be looking at spillover until next week.  

Other rivers do factor here but Brazos topping is the biggest knob to turn.

Longer the spillover goes on the higher the chance the reservoirs protecting downtown fail.   Dry air pushing out precip to the west of town is really helping.  Need that line to hold. 

More rain coming in could flip all this math.  

 
:( Just read on Twitter that a Houston police officer drowned in his patrol car trying to find and rescue people.

ETA: Happened Sunday morning. They are trying to figure out how to recover the body. Family hasn't been notified yet. Ugh.

I can't imagine being trapped in your car and drowning. Horrible.

 
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The devastation is just overwhelming to me. The amount of rain is just staggering. And I honestly had no clue that Houston could even be susceptible to something like this. Just horrible to see all of those rooftops, stranded cars, people on roofs, etc.

 
GroveDiesel said:
The devastation is just overwhelming to me. The amount of rain is just staggering. And I honestly had no clue that Houston could even be susceptible to something like this. Just horrible to see all of those rooftops, stranded cars, people on roofs, etc.
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I read something about them blaming development on the plains and wetlands.  Ridiculous argument, even if factually true.

But no city is OK to handle this kind of rain, I would think.  

 
GroveDiesel said:
:( Just read on Twitter that a Houston police officer drowned in his patrol car trying to find and rescue people.

ETA: Happened Sunday morning. They are trying to figure out how to recover the body. Family hasn't been notified yet. Ugh.

I can't imagine being trapped in your car and drowning. Horrible.
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When all is said and done, I think the death toll for this hurricane is going to be fairly massive. So sad.

 
massraider said:
I read something about them blaming development on the plains and wetlands.  Ridiculous argument, even if factually true.

But no city is OK to handle this kind of rain, I would think.  
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News last night was blaming it on the population growing so fast in Houston and surrounding areas.  More concrete, etc etc

 
GroveDiesel said:
The devastation is just overwhelming to me. The amount of rain is just staggering. And I honestly had no clue that Houston could even be susceptible to something like this. Just horrible to see all of those rooftops, stranded cars, people on roofs, etc.
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regarding the bolded, this is an extreme situation, and an all time historic high, they are talking once in a thousand years on the news. Not sure how accurate that is, but that's the word.

Even in the midst of all this, and all the people having to leave their homes, I feel we are coping and making the best of it. A lot of people lived through Allison, and I believe that helped prepare us to some extent.

 
massraider said:
I read something about them blaming development on the plains and wetlands.  Ridiculous argument, even if factually true.

But no city is OK to handle this kind of rain, I would think.  
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After the event there will be people clamoring that there wasn't enough warning, homes weren't built to handle this event and that generally everyone dropped the ball.
However, if we prepped every home in the USA to handle events that occur less than once every hundred of years, we'd be worse off than having the occasional disaster.
If we evacuated everyone within twenty miles of the coast whenever a tropical storm threatened an area, we'd likely lose more $$ in terms of productivity and more lives in terms of traffic snafus than what we actually lose during events like this.
The urge to monday-morning quarterback is going to be tremendously strong, but people should remember the incredible rarity of storms like Harvey in Houston, Sandy in NY/NJ, Katrina in NO and Andrew in Florida.

ETA: T's and P's to all FBG affected and to everyone that's suffered a loss during this storm.

 
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I think the best way to look at this is as if it hit the 1977 Houston vs the 2017 Houston.  

Over development and urban sprawl has contributed, but it's going to be difficult to quantify how much and how to roll back the clock a bit.  Some homes 40 miles inland will have to be built on stilts.  

Clearly, a redraw of the 100yr flood line will have to happen. There have been 3 100 year floods in recent history.   I think you will see insurance agencies and banking push for this.  It won't be advocacy groups but those with skin in the game.

 
charvik said:
eoMMan said:
What's the best charity to send cash donations? The standard red cross, salvation army, etc?
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JJWatts?
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fwiw... from the NYTimes:

How you can help:

Many organizations are helping victims on the ground. Here are a few of them; a more complete list can be found here.

• The Hurricane Harvey Relief Fund was established by Mayor Sylvester Turner of Houston and is administered by the Greater Houston Community Foundation.

• The Houston Food Bank, the Galveston County Food Bank and the Food Bank of Corpus Christi are accepting online donations.

• The Houston Humane Society and the San Antonio Humane Society are helping animals affected by the storm.

• Save the Children is accepting donations.

Some scams have begun circulating online. Here are a few things to watch out for.
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@bigbottom FYI, looters spotted by Friendswoods Jr High, Pine Hollow, Dixie Farm. Stay vigilant. Moving west from there. Knocking doors and taking anything loose outside apparently. They will regret it if they try this area, but they might be moving further west.

ETA: Fixed direction

 
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charvik said:
@bigbottom FYI, looters spotted by Friendswoods Jr High, Pine Hollow, Dixie Farm. Stay vigilant. Moving west from there. Knocking doors and taking anything loose outside apparently. They will regret it if they try this area, but they might be moving further east.
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Thanks so much for the heads up. No one evacuated in our neighborhood so I would think they'd steer clear. Frankly, I can't imagine a worse place to loot occupied homes than the state of Texas. 

 
bigbottom said:
Thanks so much for the heads up. No one evacuated in our neighborhood so I would think they'd steer clear. Frankly, I can't imagine a worse place to loot occupied homes than the state of Texas. 
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yeah, no kidding... but I think they are targeting empty houses, so check any neighbors that may have left. I updated direction in original post, meant to say moving west.

 
Just saw on Fox news that the estimates are that only 17% of people that have had damage to their houses had flood insurance!  ONLY 17%    WoW!       

So do people just say #### it and find a new place to live.  Declare bankruptcy?   That is less than 2 out of every 10 houses.    No way 99% of people have the monetary means to fix a flooded house.   

 
Houston is so big that I imagine it's going to take a long long time to truly figure out what the cost in lives, money and infrastructure will be.  Just a really sad situation.  

 
SHIZNITTTT said:
Just saw on Fox news that the estimates are that only 17% of people that have had damage to their houses had flood insurance!  ONLY 17%    WoW!       

So do people just say #### it and find a new place to live.  Declare bankruptcy?   That is less than 2 out of every 10 houses.    No way 99% of people have the monetary means to fix a flooded house.   
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Well, the number a little misleading especially when used to bash people, as most homes not insured are in areas that are deemed safe from flooding. Each area is evaluated, and most areas do not require it. For instance, my area is deemed safe, and my mortgage company told me it was unnecessary. Many that may struggle with monthly bills may have opted out, because it would require something of epic proportions for it to be needed.

I still have it, because it is a low cost (maybe $400 a year?) for peace of mind. I have sympathy for those that opted out though.

 
SHIZNITTTT said:
Just saw on Fox news that the estimates are that only 17% of people that have had damage to their houses had flood insurance!  ONLY 17%    WoW!       

So do people just say #### it and find a new place to live.  Declare bankruptcy?   That is less than 2 out of every 10 houses.    No way 99% of people have the monetary means to fix a flooded house.   
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That stat seems unrealistic.  I think 20% of Houston is required to have flood insurance.  If 17% did, that's in expectations.  Now some might carry it that don't have to.

I would say 100% of homes that would have required flood insurance are now flooded, clearly. 

You don't need the insurance outside the 100 year area, problem is this is a 1000 year event.  When that happens it really does fall to the govt. If you are in the 1000 year zone insurance is in the $400 a year range. 

Now glass half empty, Houston got a very good look at a 100 year event in mid 2016.  Anyone that had water within walking distance of them should have maybe reconsidered their plain status.  That alone would have put some people in mind of buying up the flood insurance.  

 
I can't imagine what is going to happen to the home prices in Houston if the government doesn't step in and fix all the flooded homes.   Turn into another New Orleans?   

 
culdeus said:
That stat seems unrealistic.  I think 20% of Houston is required to have flood insurance.  If 17% did, that's in expectations.  Now some might carry it that don't have to.

I would say 100% of homes that would have required flood insurance are now flooded, clearly. 

You don't need the insurance outside the 100 year area, problem is this is a 1000 year event.  When that happens it really does fall to the govt. If you are in the 1000 year zone insurance is in the $400 a year range. 

Now glass half empty, Houston got a very good look at a 100 year event in mid 2016.  Anyone that had water within walking distance of them should have maybe reconsidered their plain status.  That alone would have put some people in mind of buying up the flood insurance.  
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I think most did. The number was much lower before.

 
SHIZNITTTT said:
I can't imagine what is going to happen to the home prices in Houston if the government doesn't step in and fix all the flooded homes.   Turn into another New Orleans?   
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FEMA is maxed at 28k per claim right now.  Obama tried to get this to 35k but it stalled and Trump has not shown any willingness to take this up.  

Max payouts are really rare and 28k is chump change.  Can't even get cleanup and demo for that.  Average Sandy payout was 8k.  

 
charvik said:
@bigbottom FYI, looters spotted by Friendswoods Jr High, Pine Hollow, Dixie Farm. Stay vigilant. Moving west from there. Knocking doors and taking anything loose outside apparently. They will regret it if they try this area, but they might be moving further west.

ETA: Fixed direction
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That's disappointing. Just the other day I was telling my father how proud I was there weren't reports of looting here.

But then it isn't like we don't have burglaries during normal times. I don't know why they wouldn't do the same when people are gone.

 
So say you have a house that is worth 250k, it has water in it 3 feet deep.  The furniture is all destroyed and appliances.    Insurance caps out at 100k for clothes, furniture, and appliances.  What would be the average cost to fix the house?   Drywall removal, wiring redone, floors ripped up, mold.          Oh, on a side note the Fox news station was interviewing a local contractor and getting back to work and the contractor stated, "I am ready to get back to work, but I can't find enough help.  No one can find enough laborers to work in construction at the moment."

Bankruptcies are going to be very high.   I guess we will see a lot of people from Houston starting to make their journeys to new places to live and work. 

 
culdeus said:
That stat seems unrealistic.  I think 20% of Houston is required to have flood insurance.  If 17% did, that's in expectations.  Now some might carry it that don't have to.

I would say 100% of homes that would have required flood insurance are now flooded, clearly. 

You don't need the insurance outside the 100 year area, problem is this is a 1000 year event.  When that happens it really does fall to the govt. If you are in the 1000 year zone insurance is in the $400 a year range. 

Now glass half empty, Houston got a very good look at a 100 year event in mid 2016.  Anyone that had water within walking distance of them should have maybe reconsidered their plain status.  That alone would have put some people in mind of buying up the flood insurance.  
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Re: bolded - Not at all. Despite the two scares, none of my subdivision flooded and we're all in the 100 year flood plain.  And this wasn't even a 100-year flood, it was a 500 year flood.

 
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