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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (2 Viewers)

Love hearing the stories of people forgoing profit in their businesses to help. Just saw a chef who was a contestant on one of those food shows who has banned together with others in getting food out to those in need. Another guy turned all his furniture stores into shelters. People putting people ahead of profit is how it should be in such times. Then I heard some gas stations are price gouging. If you see any, contact the attorney general's office to report it and they will take care of it. God's speed. xxx
MT has a great piece about why price gouging should be encouraged because it forces resources to where they are needed most.

Basically in times of extreme scarcity, if prices don't rise, people who aren't truly in need will drive supply to 0. By gas going to ten bucks a gallon, it prevents people looking to top off their tank, while preserving supply for those who have to drive their kids to the hospital.

Here's one take:
https://mises.org/library/price-gouging-saves-lives-hurricane

ETA: A business owner, who truly wanted to look after his/her customers, would raise prices with the note that all proceeds outside of MSRP are going to relief efforts.

 
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I can't say this enough, that you guys along the East Coast need to make some preparations now at least as far as gasoline, batteries, non-perishable food etc.

The next really big hurricane after Katrina was Rita which hit Houston, and you could tell from the reaction here that everyone had Katrina on their mind.  I expect the same to happen with Irma coming while everyone is so hyper-aware of what Harvey did. Runs on grocery stores and gas stations and everything are probably going to be extra intense and start early.  Just read back to some of our tales of 4-5 hours just to get through the grocery store and that's what you may face if you delay.

(But please don't buy it ALL).  :)

 
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J.J. Watt's fundraiser for Houston passes $14M in donations

"The initial night, we broke the site, we couldn't figure out how to get it back up and we somehow found the CEO's phone number and called him at his house and got him out of bed," Watt told CNN's Anderson Cooper on Thursday night. "He helped us fix the site and it got rolling."

...

Watt said he has been in consultation with others on how to best use the money, using Hurricane Katrina relief efforts as a playbook for what to do and what not to do.

"I talked to some of the companies that helped out over there [in New Orleans] just to kind of get a glimpse of what went wrong, what went right, and how do you think we can do it best this time," Watt told AC360. "And I've gotten some really good information and the best thing that people have told me so far is take your time to make sure you do it right."

 
A Louisiana update:  We are expecting serious flooding on the Sabine River, which is the boundary between Texas and Louisiana.  This happened in March of 2016 and it closed Interstate Ten with water over it near Orange, TX. 

I live in Sulphur, LA which is 20 miles from the Texas border and work in Lake Charles (6 miles from Sulphur).  Sulphur is the first big exit in Louisiana.  My wife is at Wal-mart and tells me the place is just swamped with Texans right now.  Most of whom made it here to get supplies.  Beaumont is without power and water right now so they are here shopping.  Others are staying here.  All hotels are full. Lake Charles is a casino town so we have lots of hotels, so there are a lot of people staying here. 

We have two shelters, which are really just lily pads for evacuees. We don't house victims long-term here because we are in a hurricane impact zone, so they get them here, some of them straight from the rooftops in Orange and Port Arthur and get them dry clothes, medical attention and food.  We register them so they can be tracked and then send them to shelters in North Louisiana (outside of the impact zone). So far we have had 6-8000 come through the system.

Houston is still getting all the attention on TV but the Golden Triangle area of Beaumont, Port Arthur and Orange actually had worse flooding and higher rainfall totals.  It is an unbelievable disaster there.  Houston is drying out, while they are still finding people stranded in the Golden Triangle. 

I am finally slowing down.  In my public information duties I have been interviewed by the New York Times, Reuters, Associated Press, Fox Business Channel, CNN, Times Picayune, and others.  These were all just status update interviews although I may have been quoted in some of them.  I am not sure.  I had arranged for our Emergency Operations Director to be interviewed by phone live on the Fox Business Channel Wednesday.  He was supposed to be on at 5:45 pm Central time.  He told me to make sure to remind him or he would forget.  Sure enough, at 5:30 the governor pops in and they go to one of the shelters.  I called the Fox guys and said I didn't think he would be available for the interview.  The show was underway so the producer asked if I could pinch hit.  I said sure as long as they didn't mind the JV team.  So he puts me on hold and says I will go live in a minute.  I hurriedly texted my wife to turn on the tv to Fox Business channel, that I would be on in a minute.  A minute goes by, then two, then three and I knew something was up.  The producer gets on the line and says "Sorry, we had a live cut-in from a field reporter and don't need you now."  I get home a little while later and my wife tells me right after I texted her they went to an interview near the Texas border with a crazy victim with more tattoos than teeth.  He was like the "Ain't nobody got time for that" guy.  Where do they find these people? Anyway, dude stole my air time, but I hope he's doing ok. 

 
NWS just published the rainfall records set in Beaumont/Port Arthur.

Wettest Day-8/29/2017 26.03 inches (previous record 12.76)

Wettest Month 8/2017  54.74 inches (previous record 22.74)

Wettest August 2017 54.74 inches (previous record 17.26)

Wettest Summer 2017 71.42 inches (previous record 31.67)

Wettest Year 2017 89.60 inches (so far). (previous record 83.82)

 
What you posted aligns with Weather Underground's historical map (Cat 1-2 hurricane tracks 1851-2016 within two degrees of Irma's current track). One of those historical hurricanes did make it to land in the SE U.S., but I don't know which particular storm that was.
Ivan probably though dont know if it qualifies for this.  

Nah not Ivan. I remember Ivan as going over Miami but didnt. Dunno what that one they show is. I mean could be like a 1930 

 
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Ivan probably though dont know if it qualifies for this.  

Nah not Ivan. I remember Ivan as going over Miami but didnt. Dunno what that one they show is. I mean could be like a 1930 
I checked Hugo (1989) to make sure it wasn't that one, because it was around SC -- wasn't Hugo either.

 
culdeus said:
Ivan probably though dont know if it qualifies for this.  

Nah not Ivan. I remember Ivan as going over Miami but didnt. Dunno what that one they show is. I mean could be like a 1930 
I posted earlier in the thread that Hurricane Charlie  in 2004 had a slightly similar starting path.  And, 2004 was incredibly busy, which this season is shaping up to be.

 
culdeus said:
Irma a Cat 3.  In the past early strong storms have burned themselves out.  
Man I hope you are right. How long til we can get an accurate read on this one? Assume everyone guessing at this point?

 
Man I hope you are right. How long til we can get an accurate read on this one? Assume everyone guessing at this point?
Another 5 days. Tracks are good about 5 days out. This cane is 9 to 12 days from causing trouble to the us. 

 
Well Charlie wasnt even cat 1 till it got close to Jamaica. 

The main hope here is that very strong canes burn themselves out too soon. 
No reason to "burn out" if there is warm ocean water to feed it.  The greater hope is for a track that takes it north sooner rather than later and thus it gets turned back out to the Atlantic without any coastal impact.

 
Man I hope you are right. How long til we can get an accurate read on this one? Assume everyone guessing at this point?
There is a cold front on the east coast who is going to drive the course of the hurricane. And they can't confidently predict this far out what the timing of that interaction is going to be.

Lost internet much of yesterday while they were doing repairs. Back up now.

 
For those doing some preliminary Irma prep, reminder that Lowe's has 2 packs of Kingsford Blue at half price this holiday weekend. 

 
I'm working with a college buddy that now is a pilot (Former AF).  He's doing air lifting of supply and I'm going to drop off a couple chainsaws.  If someone wants to kick in more cash I'll get more stuff over the weekend.  

Addison has been designated a supply depot and will be flying supplies out continuously as soon as they've collected enough to send the planes. I'll plan on being there by 3PM for my second load, but if someone offers up a chainsaw I may be diverted to that because they're needed desperately. Doesn't matter how you bring it. We're sending loads based on the type (saws here... dog food there... etc. bug spray everywhere) Besides the listed items, raw/frozen meat is a big need that we coordinate more closely. Thanks a ton, and please re-post and get the word out on other forums.
I'm also gonna try to find a way to get them some meat for tomorrow.  I might even smoke some stuff on the egg and send it cooked.

Obviously, you'd probably have to kick me paypal or something rather than donate to a real non profit so there's probably limited appeal in that, but I think I'm trusted.  

 
Dropped 2 chainsaws and some gear at the airport.  It's going out asap.  

Rounding up some funds locally to swing them some frozen meat tomorrow.  

 
Still a long way out but I hope Atlantic Coast people are keeping an eye on Irma. Latest models are not good. Cat 4+ with continental US landfall anywhere from florida to Carolinas.

Too early to take this as gospel but still you might want to review plans. Next 48 hours will be crucial since most models have it turning twice.

 
Still a long way out but I hope Atlantic Coast people are keeping an eye on Irma. Latest models are not good. Cat 4+ with continental US landfall anywhere from florida to Carolinas.

Too early to take this as gospel but still you might want to review plans. Next 48 hours will be crucial since most models have it turning twice.
Where is best place to follow it? I've been checking weather underground. 

 
Is it just me, or did Irma's track just shift a bit south at the 5am update?
I noticed it in how TWC is covering it.  They went from talking about the trough in the jet stream steering it out in to the Atlantic, to, again, talking about FL and the Carlolinas.  

 
Models showing Disturbance #37 may strengthen into a named system and track similar to Irma but maybe a little further to the west.

 
I usually start with the NOAA National Hurricane Center as they are the source and update first.  This site typically has the Spaghetti models update soon after.  Wunderground  has the best narratives.  Its sort of like news sites, though, as everyone has their own preferences.  
Awesome man appreciate it! Fingers crossed up in VA it misses us but more importantly keep it out of the gulf and away from Texas. 

 
I noticed it in how TWC is covering it.  They went from talking about the trough in the jet stream steering it out in to the Atlantic, to, again, talking about FL and the Carlolinas.  
I saw a spaghetti model ensemble run, and two of them had it coming ashore almost right over my house. So I'm definitely interested in how this plays out.

 
Irma is a bit of a concern. But not getting stronger for the moment. 

Will know Tuesday. 

The culdeus model(tm) has it as a cat 1 at Jacksonville unless they sign kaepernjck then cat 4. 

 
I usually start with the NOAA National Hurricane Center as they are the source and update first.  This site typically has the Spaghetti models update soon after.  Wunderground  has the best narratives.  Its sort of like news sites, though, as everyone has their own preferences.  
I've been following Mike's Weather Page on Facebook and then he runs the spaghetti models URL too

He's based on Florida's Gulf Coast too, so I find it more helpful than some of the others. 

 
Irma is a bit of a concern. But not getting stronger for the moment. 

Will know Tuesday. 

The culdeus model(tm) has it as a cat 1 at Jacksonville unless they sign kaepernjck then cat 4. 
Glad to know TC is keeping us safe.

 
Went to Fiesta grocery store this morning. Don't care for that place but my normal grocery is at the edge of the new mandatory evacuation area, while I knew Fiesta was open. A lot of things still cleaned out. Produce was hit or miss but got some fresh bananas. Meat case, cheese, dairy, etc had lots of things cleaned out completely. Got some fresh hamburger at least. Bread aisle was pretty much cleared out but did have a few loaves left, though I threw a bunch of flatbread in the freezer before the storm so I was good already (and far fewer carbs!). Went at 9:30 so not many people in there.

Saw a fireman SUV pulling a boat heading off towards Buffalo Bayou flood zone. I had a roof guy come out yesterday for an estimate (just time for a new one, not due to Harvey). Went ahead and got locked in with him at the current prices before the dealers run out of stock and prices start going up. He said he hasn't been looking at a lot of wind damage, mostly water damage from people who had leaks. Said the only open highways to get past Buffalo Bayou are 99 on the west and 610 on the east. So that is a 20-mile stretch that north-south travel is blocked by the Bayou they are releasing the reservoirs into.

Apparently traffic is pretty terrible too. A lot of people were out. I'm pretty much sticking at home at this point or just quick runs down the block so I don't add to it. I have a good buddy who wants to take his family to a Skeeters minor league baseball game, which would mean a drive from far northwest to far southwest Houston. Probably 45-50 minutes with no traffic. I can't even imagine what it'll be today. Warned him about the state of the roads, and encouraged him to find something more local to soothe his wife's cabin-fever, but I imagine he's just going to end up suffering through it.

 
Timing was not good.  A lot of people here have left area for holiday weekend. I was trying to get about 1k to get a shipment of meat down there.

Haven't been able to scare that up at all. :shrug:  

In a more positive note the dallas area is nearly completely bought out of gloves and saws and things like that. People have been snapping them up and getring them down south. 

I heard home depot and lowes are sharing trucks to move inventory closer to the region. 

People are getting help. Just hope its enough. Had family in Beaumont. They are fine but are moving out till the water sorts out. 

 
The 11am track is not encouraging for Florida, IMO. It seems to have shifted south again, but there's a week to monitor and prepare. Still, it has all warm water between us and it.

 

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