The west side of a storm going north is much weaker than the east side. Last year, Matthew was about 50-75 miles offshore from Miami Beach, and we didn't have sustained hurricane winds. Only 40,000 homes lost power in South Florida, and Matthew was a category 3-4.Ramblin Wreck said:
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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mjolnirs
- Start date
PIK95
Footballguy
That's was the craziest near miss I have ever seen. That radar was nuts. Poor Hati though.
From a damage situation, it would be close to some of these models absent the intensity projections now. Obviously start with very large CAT 5 in worst case, then have it rake up the entire east coast of Florida with the eye being about 5 miles onshore and moving quickly NNW up the coast. The amount of property damage would be mind-boggling.
Like this: https://www.windy.com/?gfs,2017-09-10-18,27.980,-81.731,5
Push the play button
Will of course change as models update, but that is an incredibly bad scenario for property damage.
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culdeus
Footballguy
I don't remember ever having nearly as much live data coming in on storms as there has been this year. It's really stunning the amount of imaging and sources for info there is out there.
I guess it's been what? 5-6 years since a really truly active storm season with 3-5 storms or so? I might be forgetting a year or two in there.
And so much of this is open source. People were online before the new euro coming out saying they already ran it in their code and were saying what it would look like 4hrs before it comes out. Crazy time to be alive.
Now think what it looked like in 1908. Hey, sky is getting dark, should we run?
I guess it's been what? 5-6 years since a really truly active storm season with 3-5 storms or so? I might be forgetting a year or two in there.
And so much of this is open source. People were online before the new euro coming out saying they already ran it in their code and were saying what it would look like 4hrs before it comes out. Crazy time to be alive.
Now think what it looked like in 1908. Hey, sky is getting dark, should we run?
Doug B
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
Well also since most of fema is in south texas and there is still 10 feet of water in places.
JaxBill
Footballguy
True, but I was also referring to local emergency management agencies. When do they decide to evacuate the Keys, South Florida or even SW Florida?
Gov. Scott has declared a emergency. Evacuating the Keys is tricky since there's only one road in or out.
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
This puts the eye passing to the west of us. Charleston would be on the side with the strongest winds. Less of a storm surge, but lots of wind and rain.
GregR
Footballguy
Stay safe Florida. Get yourselves ready.
Went out planning to hit a drug store, got a little bit of a better look at where the Westheimer flooding was coming from. It's gone down enough now you can see that the water is coming out from under manhole covers, which I assume is coming from the Buffalo Bayou flooding. Then from there it flows into the storm drains which go to Brayes Bayou.
Couldn't even get to the drug store, all 3 entrances had too deep of water. People were coming southbound on Eldridge (coming from Buffalo Bayou area), so I gather it wasn't too deep to drive though it was deep enough I didn't see any reason to risk it. The northbound looked deeper water and not sure if it was driveable.
Went out planning to hit a drug store, got a little bit of a better look at where the Westheimer flooding was coming from. It's gone down enough now you can see that the water is coming out from under manhole covers, which I assume is coming from the Buffalo Bayou flooding. Then from there it flows into the storm drains which go to Brayes Bayou.
Couldn't even get to the drug store, all 3 entrances had too deep of water. People were coming southbound on Eldridge (coming from Buffalo Bayou area), so I gather it wasn't too deep to drive though it was deep enough I didn't see any reason to risk it. The northbound looked deeper water and not sure if it was driveable.
Galileo
Footballguy
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Smart man. I can see where, as time goes on, people might tend to take chances, get complacent.
JaxBill
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
@#)*(&#)*&# )(*#@&
(*&(#*& )(*&#)*&# )(*&#)(*&#*& $# )(*& #@)(* Been here two months and already having to deal with this ####!!!!!!!!!
What's the play for us in Central Florida and also a good source to get info outside this thread? Our weather people look like they suck. TIA.
(*&(#*& )(*&#)*&# )(*&#)(*&#*& $# )(*& #@)(* Been here two months and already having to deal with this ####!!!!!!!!!What's the play for us in Central Florida and also a good source to get info outside this thread? Our weather people look like they suck. TIA.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Where you at? If you're inland you're probably as good as you can be. No need to panic IMO.@#)*(&#)*&# )(*#@&
What's the play for us in Central Florida and also a good source to get info outside this thread? Our weather people look like they suck. TIA.
I follow a local weather guy, Paul Dellagatto of Fox 13 in Tampa, he's pretty solid.
The Commish
Footballguy
MindCrime
Footballguy
I'm in East Orange County (UCF area). WESH 2 is decent with their forecasts and coverage. Have their own hurricane tracker app, but it's the same stuff you can find on any decent weather app. The toughest part about Florida is not knowing the exact impact location, since as someone said before, you could end up evacuating right into the storm. Understand that people will flee inland and north. Oh, and the tornadoes can be worse than the hurricanes that spawn them. Good luck. Welcome to Florida .
This next week is going to be hectic. I build hurricane shutters, and we've been swamped since I started in March, and now the ladies in the office say the phones won't stop ringing.
They've gotten more accurate with tracks. Intensity is still a crapshoot at best. There's a chance Irma hits Cat 5 status.
The Commish
Footballguy
Speaking of which....my MIL was trying to describe this type of hurricane shutter that's a cloth of some sort (assuming it has to have Kevlar as a primary component) that you hang instead of actual shutters...lets light in, easy to put up, easy to store etc. Know anything about such things?
Beef Ravioli
Footballguy
Is Pensacola a possibility of being hit? My two boys are there.
It will be in the cone of possibility, but a more likely path takes the storm further east. Pensacola will also be on the weak side of the storm. It should be a Sunday morning event in the Miami area. Any effect in Pensacola will be about a day later.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
This thing's models just keep tracking further and further west. I am not a fan.
The Ref
Footballguy
So 5 days out they can tell on average where this thing goes within 200 miles? Is that what this says.
The Ref
Footballguy
I just got a place in Gainesville for Friday night, refundable up until Thursday at 1pm.
we have friends in Jacksonville and LaGrange so I figure we can go either direction or back south.
not sure if we going to use it but it's an option.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Yeah, no kidding almost a worst case scenario for state of Florida. Coming ashore in SW Florida so Miami gets the NE quadrant then riding the spine of the state.
Only saving grace for FL in that situation is if Cuba was a speed bump at all.
culdeus
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Mike's Weather Page - live discussion at 9am.
"Hurricane Hunters finding surface winds 170mph plus right now in Irma. Florida I must admit... I am a little scared inside. Going live at 9am eastern. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP"
"Hurricane Hunters finding surface winds 170mph plus right now in Irma. Florida I must admit... I am a little scared inside. Going live at 9am eastern. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP"
