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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (3 Viewers)

GFS model is posting now.  Every site that mirrors it I can't get to without a 404 server error. 

The hurricane is melting the internet.

 
Maybe I'm nuts but we probably as an internet need to lay off the F5 for these model uploads. I mean NOAA actually gets their data from...the internet.

 
culdeus said:
Maybe I'm nuts but we probably as an internet need to lay off the F5 for these model uploads. I mean NOAA actually gets their data from...the internet.
Click to expand...
You're going to have to unpack what you're trying to say here.

 
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Henry Ford said:
You're going to have to unpack what you're trying to say here.
Click to expand...
These model generators put their data up on a server where it gets pulled.  If every wannabe weather man starts F5 when the models release, guess who also doesn't get the data...The government. 

 
pantherclub said:
5 pm update looks like a hard west correction 
Click to expand...
The 12Z guidance has generally shifted slightly
westward, closer to the previous NHC forecast. As a result, little
overall change was made to the 4-5 day track forecast. The NHC
track is once again close to the HFIP corrected consensus model.
This is also near the 12Z GEFS ensemble mean, but a little east of
the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are reminded that the average
NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles,
respectively.

 
Reports prior to being hit are that it's expected that Puerto Rico - the entire series of islands - could be without power for 4-6 months.

 
culdeus said:
These model generators put their data up on a server where it gets pulled.  If every wannabe weather man starts F5 when the models release, guess who also doesn't get the data...The government. 
Click to expand...
Ah. Gotcha.  Makes more sense than what I thought you were saying.  Thanks.

 
culdeus said:
Maybe I'm nuts but we probably as an internet need to lay off the F5 for these model uploads. I mean NOAA actually gets their data from...the internet.
Click to expand...
We all want to know where it's going but all they really know is Florida will get a hurricane and the rest of the SE and Mid-Atlantic need to be on lookout.  That part of the forecast won't be known for another day or two.  The models will flip back and forth from E to W in the meantime.

 
Henry Ford said:
If this thing hits Miami directly, windows are the least of everyone's concern.
Click to expand...
Yes, the storm surge would do major damage to many coastal areasa and many single family homes would have roof and window damage, although post-Andrew many homes have been hardened.  But, during Wilma in 2005, many windows on the south side of high rise buildings in Miami and ft. Lauderdale were blown out by a category 2-3 storm.  

 
pantherclub said:
5 pm update looks like a hard west correction 
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:confused:

At least on wunderground, the 5 PM models look pretty much the same as all the ones since last night. Still hugging Fla's east coast. Hard west correction, to me, implies that Fla's west coast and the Gulf of Mexico are back in play

What site are you viewing? Do you see the name of the track?

 
SoBeDad said:
That path has potential to eclipse Harvey in terms of damage. 1000s of high rise condos and businesses would be able to test their impact windows.
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The shutters I work on are rated to Cat 4, but must be tested to 225 mph. At that speed, the shutters wouldn't fail, but the structure likely would.

 
Doug B said:
:confused:

At least on wunderground, the 5 PM models look pretty much the same as all the ones since last night. Still hugging Fla's east coast. Hard west correction, to me, implies that Fla's west coast and the Gulf of Mexico are back in play

What site are you viewing? Do you see the name of the track?
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone saw a correction that far west at this point. (although technically, that cone does put the gulf in play - if it sneaks to the west of Florida as that cone allows for, all bets are off.)

 
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Doug B said:
:confused:

At least on wunderground, the 5 PM models look pretty much the same as all the ones since last night. Still hugging Fla's east coast. Hard west correction, to me, implies that Fla's west coast and the Gulf of Mexico are back in play

What site are you viewing? Do you see the name of the track?
Click to expand...
I was looking at weatherunderground.  The west correction I was referring to looks like its closer(almost on top of Miami) and goes back into Georgia rather than Charleston.

 
Henry Ford said:
She's a global health and poverty strategy consultant who used to run a couple of different major Canadian aid organizations and now consults independently with governments for poverty and disaster aid.  This isn't some random person.

Edit: her followers on Twitter include Barack Obama.
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None of what you're saying matters, in fact, imo it makes it worse.

Great job she did posting about 1,000 people dying.

Nonetheless, anyone threatening her is clearly a ####bag.

 
bagger said:
Have they confirmed death toll? Or way too early.
Click to expand...
There's no confirmation of any death toll, and the original post about death toll was about a connection breaking up and the PM responding to a question over a bad line.

(There is a confirmation of the death of a child whose mother tried to escape a damaged building)

 
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bagger said:
Have they confirmed death toll? Or way too early.
Click to expand...
I think the consensus was they misheard someone saying 1000 families lost their homes, and thought that meant 1000 deaths.  what they meant was the actual structures, not people.

As people came out to set the record straight for some reason the media freaked out, and now nobody is talking.  

 
AAABatteries said:
Eye just missing north of PR - am I to understand that is bad news for Florida as it won't weaken it any before it hits?
Click to expand...
I've read so much today I'll probably get this wrong but feel like I heard missing PR would get a sharper turn and up the coast.  

But in general yes staying over water keeps its strength. 

 
pantherclub said:
You will not have a roof if its cat 4 winds
Click to expand...
"Better building codes after Andrew helped during hurricane Charlie: In Charlotte County, nearly 30 percent of the surveyed homes built under the new code that faced winds up to 150 mph in Hurricane Charley had no shingle damage, the study showed. Meanwhile, the study found that every surveyed home built under older code experienced at least some shingle loss."

My sister's house in south Miami-Dade suffered major damage during Andrew. The problems were roof tiles anchored with mortar, roof paper without proper and enough nails, garage door not protected, front door not protected. Oriented Strand Board (OSB) was deemed by her insurance company to be inferior to plywood and a contributor to her roof damage. She lived in a trailer next to her house for over 6 months during the rebuilding. She had a small deductible and the adjusters were very generous. She even put in a pool with the insurance money. Now, most people have large deductibles and the adjusters will be less charitable.

 
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