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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (3 Viewers)

Mr Anonymous said:
Is it just me or does it look like this thing is taking a much deeper dive into mainland Cuba than any model or forecaster predicted? Would it be really all that surprising if 24 hours from now the updated forecast has this thing with an entirely new path? One that is much less bleak for Florida. Afterall, 24 hours ago Miami was the bullseye. One day later and the bullseye is an entire state-width west. With more than a day before projected Florida landfall that leaves plenty of time for a much changed pathway.

Call it wishful thinking, call it part conspiracy theory, but it wouldn't shock me at all to learn that scientists and meteorologists are already starting to sense a Florida miss, but don't want the media to run with it and lead people back south. And the media stays hush, hush knowing the second word gets out that Florida is in the clear, their ratings tank. I know it's probably a longshot but I'd love to be right on this one. It would be easy to understand why the models wound up way off. Irma is flanked by two other hurricanes which no doubt have the potential to throw everything out of whack.
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Things I'm seeing on other boards is that not only is it getting a piece of Cuba but the forward motion has slowed. It's about to run into too much resistance to move much more Westward and could start the turn soon.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Is it just me or does it look like this thing is taking a much deeper dive into mainland Cuba than any model or forecaster predicted? Would it be really all that surprising if 24 hours from now the updated forecast has this thing with an entirely new path? One that is much less bleak for Florida. Afterall, 24 hours ago Miami was the bullseye. One day later and the bullseye is an entire state-width west. With more than a day before projected Florida landfall that leaves plenty of time for a much changed pathway.

Call it wishful thinking, call it part conspiracy theory, but it wouldn't shock me at all to learn that scientists and meteorologists are already starting to sense a Florida miss, but don't want the media to run with it and lead people back south. And the media stays hush, hush knowing the second word gets out that Florida is in the clear, their ratings tank. I know it's probably a longshot but I'd love to be right on this one. It would be easy to understand why the models wound up way off. Irma is flanked by two other hurricanes which no doubt have the potential to throw everything out of whack.
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European model called this hit on Cuba yesterday at least.  

 
Phil Elliott said:
Yes, It looks like it is still heading East. Its going to have to take a hard right turn pretty soon to stay on "track". But if it heads out into the gulf it probably gets even stronger and slams into Louisiana-Florida panhandle or veers back i to Florida coast near Tampa.
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I think, and this is just a hunch here, that the track shifts east again sometime tomorrow, especially if that ridge holds together. I'm surprised this one hasn't been forecast to eventually turn northeast, like so many other systems. 

 
gump said:
NOAA now has it hitting further up the west coast of FL at Punta Gorda/Cape Coral.
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Didn't Punta Gorda get wiped out by one of the 2005 hurricanes? (Or whatever year there were like 3 hurricanes in a row that came into Florida thru the Gulf.)

 
JaxBill said:
Things I'm seeing on other boards is that not only is it getting a piece of Cuba but the forward motion has slowed. It's about to run into too much resistance to move much more Westward and could start the turn soon.
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The more west it is now the more east it is tomorrow. 

 
Phil Elliott said:
So radioactive water if it floods in the plant?
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I don't know specifics of plant but building it on a barrier island was not the smartest idea. I would imagine they have plans and safety percautions in place but a dead hit by a cat 5 storm is something to be concerned about. 

 
Just saw a former coworker of mine on Facebook. Lives in Venice a couple miles from the coast. Staying with her 16 year old daughter. I want to smack the #### out of her. Why?!? It's not necessary to stay. Had pictures of her house boarded up. Wind ain't the problem, folks! U can't hide from water. 

 
Hurricane winds extend 70 miles from the eye - that means almost 170 miles in diameter of hurricane winds (last I saw the eye was 30 miles across.). Stay safe.  Don't be fooled if the eye passes and you feel the calm of the storm. 

 
It's horrible to think about trading tragedy for future tragedies but Irma's eye making landfall over Cuba for as long as it looks like it will hold there is probably going to save a lot of lives on the West coast of Florida. 

 
Henry Ford said:
It's horrible to think about trading tragedy for future tragedies but Irma's eye making landfall over Cuba for as long as it looks like it will hold there is probably going to save a lot of lives on the West coast of Florida. 
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What's your thinking Henry

 
Finatic said:
What's your thinking Henry
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As I said yesterday morning, the eyewall replacement finishing right before going over warm waters next to Florida just screams "massive strengthening."  While it's gone back to Cat5, it hasn't gotten back to 180-185 mph winds, and probably won't because of this landfall. It was going to be the equivalent of an F3 tornado, 170 miles across, moving 10 mph over Florida from stem to stern.  Now it will be much slower it appears.

Eyewall replacement over hot water brings massive strengthening - it's why we ended the eyewall replacement seeding program when we realized what it is and what it does naturally.  Hitting land is at least going to stall the strengthening, which is good for the U.S.   not so much for Cuba. 

 
(For those who don't know, we didn't know about eyewall replacement until we had a program in place where we seeded clouds to try to choke out eyewalls and stop hurricanes and realized we were doing something that happens naturally.)

 
If this thing hit between Naples and Tampa at 185 mph, we'd be looking at a potential Katrina level event.  At 160, Florida at least appears prepared and doesn't have its own versions of MRGO and the industrial canal. 

 
I lived on St. Pete Beach in my younger years.  You get 10 meters of storm surge there, you can kiss almost everything not called "The Don CeSar" goodbye. 

 
(By the way, if anyone still lives there go have baked ziti at Vito and Michael's after this passes for me.  I miss it still.)

 
My sister has a house on Cudjoe Key.  It sits on stilts about 12 feet above sea level.  It's not newer construction (80's maybe?) but they have hurricane shutters etc.  I wonder if it will be standing after today?  

I ####### love the Florida Keys. 

 
How did the Florida Keys make out during Hurricane Wilma in 2005? I've seen pictures of flooded-out cars in Key West during Wilma. But I don't know if most residences are built up high, or about other mitigating factors.

 
After a frantic 30 minutes, just got a hold of my son at USF and told him to leave Tampa and take the back roads home. Roads don't look too bad if he leaves soon.

He had muted his phone. Wife's coworker has a son in same apartment complex and had to go bang on his door.

 
We are in a non evac zone on the highest land in the county with a new roof put on two weeks ago. Still considering leaving but I think it's best to stay. Terrified of getting out there and not finding any gas or hitting traffic. 

 
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