Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
17 of the top 21 QBs in yards this year were drafted within the first 36 picks, including 12 in the top 4.![]()
I just queried PFR for the scrimmage yards RB leaders in 2016. Here's where the top 12 were drafted ... just as Deamon noted, it looks like the sweet spot is in the late 2nd through 4th rounds:
1
David Johnson
3-86
2
Ezekiel Elliott
1-4
3
Le'Veon Bell
2-48
4
DeMarco Murray
3-71
5
LeSean McCoy
2-53
6
Devonta Freeman
4-103
7
Jay Ajayi
5-149
8
Melvin Gordon
1-15
9
Spencer Ware
6-194
10
Mark Ingram
1-28
11
Frank Gore
3-65
12
Lamar Miller
4-97
Of course the hit rate on mid-round RBs is going to be a lot lower than on 1st-rounders ... but guess what, that's the case at every other position as well. I haven't run the numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if the correlation between draft position and total value above replacement for RBs is significantly lower than the average overall.
6 of the top 12 WRs in yards this year were 1st-round picks, plus 3 2nd-round picks.