Welcome to RHE's World Cup previews! Now with 100% fewer Americans! We did this in 2014. As then, this is partly for the soccer nerds who know I'm going to find some way to post erotic fanfic featuring Karim Benzema even though he's not in the tournament. It is partly for any neophytes who plan to watch the tournament with an open mind (all two of you, THANKS Bruce Arena!). Finally, it is for anyone masochistic enough to subject themselves to near-daily doses of ScoobyShtick.
We begin, like most World Wars, with Germany.
The German National Team amusingly share a nickname with Dirk Nowitsky's penis: Der Mannschaft. In many ways, they are a model of stability. Jogi Low has been in charge for a decade and has never failed to reach the semifinal of a major tournament. Germany were runners-up at Euro 2008 , third place at the 2010 World Cup, semifinalists at Euro 2012 and 2016 (the Euros don't have 3rd Place game), and, of course, winners of the 2014 World Cup and 2017 Confederations Cup. Their 6-0 dismantling of hosts Brazil in the 2014 World Cup is probably the most memorable performance on the world stage in the last two decades. You will be hard-pressed to find any knowledgeable analyst who does not think that Germany will at least make the semi-finals. But with that said, Germany are not without questions and Low's responses to these questions provide a ready-made narrative if Germany underperforms. Let's take a look at the provisional roster. I will put likely starters in
bold and potential starters in
italics. The four players on this 27 roster who expect to be dropped before the final 23 man roster is announced are in
strikethrough.
Goalkeeper: Manuel Neuer,
Marc Andre Ter Stegen, Bernd Leno,
Kevin Trapp
Neuer has been a near constant for Low since breaking into the national team in 2009. By 2013, Neuer had cemented his reputation as likely the best goaltender in the world (he won the award for top goalkeeper four straight years from 2013 to 2016). I believe David De Gea had already surpassed him when he was injured in September 2017 and the injury has kept Neuer sidelined since. He resumed full training with Bayern Munich in April. Meanwhile, Ter Stegen has enjoyed his best year with Barcelona, finally being mentioned among the best GKs in the world. If De Gea, a healthy Neuer and Jan Oblak are the best three GKs in the world (and I believe they are), then Ter Stegen is in that tier right behind them. Low obviously trusts Neuer, and it seems unlikely he'd be named to the team to be a backup when the injury would provide a perfect pretense to drop him. This is the provisional roster, however, and one of those four GKs will be dropped. At this time, it's almost certainly Trapp, but if Neuer can't prove himself healthy, maybe he's dropped. In any case, whether it's Neuer or Ter Stegen, the GK will face a lot of pressure because the press will already have "It should have been Neuer/Ter Stegen" stories in the can and ready to go.
Defenders: Mats Hummels, Jerome Boateng, Joshua Kimmich, Jonas Hector, Marvin Plattenhardt, Niklas Sule,
Johnathan Tah, Matthias Ginter, Antonio Rudiger
Barring injury, the starters here seem set in stone, and only Spain can boast of a similarly accomplished and solid collection of defenders. Hummels and Boateng (Messi meme notwithstanding) are both considered top 5 - 7 central defenders in the world and have the added benefit of familiarity because they play together at Bayern. Sule actually backs them up, and this familiarity may make him the top contender to replace either of the starters if they are injured or suspended. If you want to tell whether someone is a proper knowledgeable "football" fan, ask him or her to name the five best right backs in the world. If the Kimmich isn't mentioned, keep looking. I rate him the best right back in the world (somewhat amazing, as he's a converted midfielder who seamlessly stepped in to replace the best right back in the world for club and country when Phillip Lahm retired). Kimmich is not flashy. He isn't a flash motoring up and down the right flank. Instead, he's just incredibly solid. Always in the right position. Always playing the right pass with the right weight (he gets lots of assists without looking like an "offensive-minded" fullback). Hector, by contrast, is one of the least heralded starters for a tournament favorite. His Cologne team was relegated. I doubt there are any Champions League caliber teams interested in him. But Jogi trusts him and he's been nearly as omnipresent at LB as Kimmich has been at RB. Plattenhardt might get in if they need a left-footed dead ball specialist at some point.
Central Midfielder: Toni Kroos,
Sami Khedira, Leon Goretzka, Ilkay Gundogan, Sebastien Rudy --
Indulge me, if you will, while I pay homage to the nearly forgotten double-pivot. In an age of dedicated defensive midfielders, only the very best teams have the talent/guts to put two complete central midfielders in withdrawn roles and trust them to figure out who gets forward and who protects the back four at any one moment. But this is the German way. Done right, this is the most dynamic and effective way to control the midfield. Done wrong, and you get Michael Bradley running his guts out because he has no idea what the hell Jermaine Jones is doing.
Toni Kroos is the best CM in the world Don't @ me, Pogbastans. He combines a Xavi-like consistency in possession with bursts of athleticism to get forward in opportune spots. And he is simply a winner. He's a World Cup winner, a three-time Champions League winner, a three-time Bundesliga winner (only two as a sure starter), a La Liga winner. He's been in the FIFPRO best XI three times with another time in the second team. And he's only 28. Resumes can be deceiving, but he could easily end his career as a more decorated CM than Zidane.
I have Khedira slated in as a starter. He's been Low's big tournament CM when healthy for a decade. But Khadira represents Low's chief dilemma for this tournament. While he continues to play well and pretty regularly for a European giant in Juventus, he's only featured three times for Germany in the last two years. And Goretzka was the clear breakout star of the Confederations Cup. And Gundogan and Rudy, while both more utility men/spot starters for elite club teams, both offer the kind of tactical nous and skill on the ball that makes the double pivot tick. Kroos/Goretzka would be the most dynamic CM pairing in the tournament, but I have to think that Low will go with familiarity and experience for such a key position. Goretzka's dip in form for Schalke in the second half of the Bundesliga season makes the decision easier, IMO.
Attacking MIdfielders/Wings: Mezut Ozil, Thomas Mueller, Marco Reus, Leroy Sane, Julian Brandt, Julian Draxler
Mueller and Ozil have been mainstays for Germany for a decade. Mueller, in particular, seems to always catapult himself into the" best player outside Messi/Ronaldo" conversation in World Cup years. And Mueller has had a productive year (after a nightmare last year for Bayern). Mueller is sui generis. There really isn't another player like him. He lines up on the right wing, but he isn't particularly fast or much of a crosser. Instead, he surveys the pitch for space from that position and drifts in to advantageous positions. In the video game, Football Manager, they have a tactical role that is pretty much reserved just for Mueller. The
ramdeuter, or "space exploiter." It has worked for him for a decade, but with Germany, he has often played as an out and out striker, and I'm not entirely sure that Low might not want more speed and dynamism. Still, until I see it, I'm never going to assume a German team without Mueller in the starting XI.
At times, Ozil looked back to his unplayable best for Arsenal this year, but at other times, he seemed to disappear (even if metrics showed him still generating chances). Ozil is one of the most divisive players in the game. He's one of the one or two most talented advanced playmakers in soccer (with Isco, IMO). But he's not more productive than Coutinho or even Christian Ericksen. And he often seems to not be running hard or contributing on defense (advanced stats, however, seem to dispute this characterization). Ozil is the only guy on this list who plays primarily as a central attacking midfielder, though, and Jogi is almost certain to employ that role.
When healthy, Marco Reus is probably the best winger/attacking midfielder in the world outside the big three of Messi/Ronaldo/Neymar. But that's the rub. He has never been able to stay healthy. And he has, consequently, never been a large part of the national team's success. People are instantly putting him in as the likely starter over Sane at LAM/LW, and I'm not sure I buy it. Sane was another standout at the Confederations Cup. He had a brilliant year under Pep Guardiola for Manchester City (put a pin in that, as a recurring theme in these recaps will be whether certain Man City players are as good as they look or simply a product of Pep's system). Draxler has never really become "the Next Big Thing" he was projected to be when he was at Schalke. After being a spot starter in 2016/17 for PSG, he stepped up this year to be a usual starter, but his production didn't enjoy a similar bounce. But he is still very talented and was a mainstay for Low in 2017 with 13 national team appearances (and he captained the Confed Cup team).
Striker: Timo Werner, Mario Gomez, Nils Petersen
Low named his team with the midfielders and forwards grouped together and he's often made noises in the last five years or so about employing a striker-less formation. I wouldn't be shocked to see him trot out a formation with someone like Reus employed as a false nine. Or even one that gives Mueller another shot at the #9 role. But Werner was clearly established as the heir apparent in 2017. His goal scoring for RB Leipzig slipped a bit this year (he finished with 13 goals in a year when only Lewa topped 15 goals in the Bundesliga), but his overall play was improved to my eyes. Werner's combines game-changing speed with surprisingly accomplished hold-up play with his back to goal. This flexibility, allowing him to run in behind defenders, or check up and send the wings or rampaging CM in behind him, makes Germany's attack very difficult to game plan against.
In a just world, 2018 is the year Mario Gomez has a Miroslav Klose like World Cup, where he scores five or six goals from a combined distance of seven yards and I annoy everyone by constantly pushing
Der Mario Gomez Button. Gomez has scored 31 goals for Germany but has never had a big international moment, even when he was one of the more feared goal scorers in Europe for the better part of a decade. Mario is now in the "surprisingly effective in limited appearances" stage of his career (colloquially known as "pulling a Hunterlaar"). But nobody understands that stage better than Low, who stuck with Klose long enough to make him the all-time leader in World Cup goals.
Still, I think Petersen, who had a quietly excellent year for a Freiberg team that does not generate many chances will beat out Mario. Petersen isn't really young, but he's younger than Mario. I actually expected Sandro Wagner to make this provisional team as he's been very effective as a change-up target striker when giving Lewandowski a breather at Bayern. He apparently did too as he has huffily retired from international soccer and is in a war of words with Low. Both Petersen and Gomez are 6'2" and neither are as good in the air as the 6'4" Wagner, but I think Petersen is more likely to be able to provide some of that target forward Plan B.
Suspected lineup:
Neuer
Kimmich Boateng Hummels Hector
Khedira Kroos
Mueller Ozil Sane
Werner
My predicted finish: The Germans can never quite go all the way in Russia. Third Place.
ridiculously deep
scoobs previews 
