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***Official*** 2018 World Cup thread (and Drinking Guide) (2 Viewers)

RHE's Wondrous Spanish World Cup Preview:  Return of the 10s!

Hello, ducklings, let's discuss Spain, shall we?

Spain, of course, were the darlings of world football as this decade began.  After winning their first major tournament in 44 years at Euro 2008, they won the 2010 World Cup and repeated as European champions in 2012. 

Then, of course, came the disastrous 2014 World Cup, where Iker Casillas' legacy underwent a painful real-time reevaluation.  Spain looked set to rebound at the 2016 Euros, but allowed themselves to slip to second in Group D with a loss to Croatia in the last game and then lost toothlessly to Italy in the first knockout round.  Nevertheless, I think Spain is as good on paper as any team in the tournament, but they are, somewhat inexplicably to me, coming in rated just below the main favorites of Germany, France, and Brazil.  I think Spain are being consistently undervalued, particularly as compared to, say, France.  Let's look at the details.  As before, likely starters are in bold and toss-up starters are in italics.  

Formation:  My best guess is a 4-1-4-1.  Spain's strength is in the midfield and I expect them to set up to maximize possession and playmaking.  They could, however, choose to play in a 4-3-3 as they have included some wide options if they want to be a little more direct.

Goalkeeper:  David DeGea , Pepe Reina, Kepa Arrizabalaga  

We could put DeGea's name in bold 72pt type.  Unless he loses a limb, he's playing.  He has now reached the stage where you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who doesn't name him the best goalkeeper in the world.  He has no weaknesses anymore.  Where he was once a bit weak on crosses, he now commands his area well.  His distribution is as good as any keeper likely to start (Ederson's other-worldly distribution is better, but he is not likely to start for Brazil).  His positioning is excellent.  But all that takes a back seat to his pure shot-stopping.  In the modern era, all goalkeepers are expected to be good shot-stoppers.  But DeGea is a freak.  He has an uncanny knack to get a hand or a leg onto the ball in an instant.  He makes more "double-saves" than any keeper I can remember.  His importance to Man United cannot be overstated, with advanced metrics suggesting he saved 8 to 10 goals compared to an "average" EPL keeper.  Even in a short format tournament, we can expect him to save a goal or two.  

Defense:  Gerard Pique, Sergio Ramos, Dani Carvajal, Jordi Alba, Nacho Monreal, Cesar Azpilicueta, Nacho Fernandez, Alvaro Odriozola

This is the most accomplished and experienced back four in the tournament.  Each presumptive starter is a consensus top-5 player in the world at his position and they all have experience playing with one another.  Ramos will almost certainly infuriate at least one team's fan base.  He'll also almost certainly pop up for one vital set piece goal in the tournament.  There was a time I would have worried that Alba would get caught upfield, but he's throttled those instincts back a bit and become a slightly less exciting player, but a more reliable one.  The reserves might not matter, but I do note that the inclusion of Nacho Monreal over Marco Alonso suggests that they're looking for stability and versatility (both Monreal and Azpilicueta are capable CBs in a 3 man back line) rather than more attacking thrust.  

CM/DM -- Sergio Busquets,  Koke, Thiago Alcantara, Saul

Like the five behind him, Busquets is pretty much an auto-start.  He is perhaps no longer everyone's pick as the best #6 in the world, but he remains absurdly important to all Spain and Barcelona do.  His positioning is impeccable and his passing is flawless.  Xavi famously said he has the best first touch at Barcelona.  He simply can't be rattled or pressed into mistakes.  When you consider that Pique and Ramos are also clean passers, it makes it extremely difficult to keep Spain from playing cleanly out of the back and keeping possession at will.  The three reserves are more box-to-box, high energy midfielders.  My guess is that you'd see one of these, perhaps Koke? come in for one of the attacking midfielders/wingers when Spain has a lead and wants to kill a game off.

AMs/Wingers/Forwards --  Isco, Andres Iniesta, David Silva, Diego Costa, Rodrigo, Iago Aspas, Marco Asensio, Lucas Vasquez

Yes, I think Spain will, at least some of the time, play 3 attacking playmakers.  Isco has been amazing for the national team.  Iniesta is still Iniesta.  David Silva has quietly racked up 118 caps for the most decorated national team of his era.  And he's capable of playing nominally on the left flank.  I expect two out of the three forwards (Costa, Rodrigo, Aspas) to play.  I love that Aspas is no longer just a guy I cite along with Fabio Borini and Lazar Markovic to bust @The Gator's balls.  He's been the top native Spanish scorer in La Liga for two straight seasons.  And while he is mostly a 9, he can play out right if necessary.  Rodrigo is the most versatile forward.  He plays all three forward positions, and I like him on the right as an inverted winger with a strong left foot.  Vasquez is the most traditional right winger and Asensio could get in if they just want to go all playmakers and take the air out of the ball.

Predicted Lineup:

                      DeGea

Carvajal       Ramos Pique        Alba

                       Busquets

Rodrigo         Isco     Iniesta           Silva

                           Aspas

Predicted finish:  If I could only bet on one team, I'd bet on Spain.  Winner, winner pollo dinner!

 
:lmao:

Aspas was a victim of the tougher English league, but is a stud in Spain. Lazar was a victim of Rodgers playing him at wing back. 

Portugal slaughter this team.

 
Love these write ups  :thumbup:  

Thiago not starting?  I'd put him in there over one of the forwards.  Put Silva and Isco on the wings.  That's a scary lineup.  

 
I do sort of wonder if Spain gets rundown as the tournament progresses especially in the MF.  If they win their group they are facing 3 games in 9 days after having a relatively hard group travel schedule (Sochi to Kazan to Kalingrad).  I know all these guys have La Liga and CL games week in and week out, but its one thing to keep in mind (and I think this goes for Brazil as well)

 
The only things separating Spain and Germany for me are the coaches and bench.  Lopetegui seems like a smart young guy, but I don't think he's got any big tournament experience; contrast with Loew who's been with Germany since 2004, done 3 World Cups and 3 Euros.  The other thing is the bench strength. It seems to me Germany loses very little across the board going from starter to reserve, whereas Spain could face a pretty steep drop-off at a few positions.  I have these two 1 and 1a, with Brazil and France just behind.

 
Among the big contenders, Brazil is the first one that has a really big question mark.  And that question mark, of course, is whether Neymar is healthy.  But there are also some other, smaller questions.  Such as whether Tite moves on from the Thiago Silva era or whether he goes with his customary 4-1-4-1 or something else.   Tite, even more than Low, tends to buck conventional wisdom to start formations and players he's comfortable with instead of just sticking with the consensus best players.  For this reason, Phillipe Coutinho actually isn't an autostart for Brazil, as Tite has sometimes preferred Renato Augusto.  

GK -- Alisson (I KNOW THIS WORLD IS KILLING YOU!), Ederson,Cassio

Alisson has been the first choice throughout the cycle.  While I have the world's biggest Ederson, man crush, hard to see Tite changing it up.  I'll be honest that I don't think Alisson has performed up to his reputation in the big games I've seen, but I also don't catch many Roma games on the regular.  I don't see him as a genuine strength like De Gea or Neuer/Ter Stegen, but he's not a liability a backup like Romero for Argentina.  

DEFENSE -- Miranda, Marquinhos, Marcelo, Thiago Silva, Filipe Luis, Pedro Geromel, Danilo, Fagner

The injury to Dani Alves creates a second big question at right back.  Danilo has the bigger pedigree but has only one cap in the last two years to Fagner's four.  Danilo ended the year on very good form, though, so I'm guessing he gets first shot.  I love Marcelo. I don't care who knows it.  I think he's an all-timer.  And he gave the most electric performance I've ever seen live against the USMNT at Fed Ex field. There was a woman there in a Brazil kit who kept putting her hands to her temples and looking to the heavens saying, "OOOOOHHHH, MARCELOOOOOO..."  After the roughly 100th time he skinned the entire right side of the US formation, my friend and I started doing the same.  "OOOOOHHHH, MARCELOOOOO...."  If you get the chance, I highly recommend it.  I'm reading that Tite is moving beyond Thiago Silva.  It will be an end of an era for the most skilled CM of his generation.  I don't think he ever quite played up to his talent, though.  

DM / CM--  Casemiro, Paulinho, Renato Augusto, Fernandinho, Fred

Brazil just happen to have two of the best three pure holding midfielders in the world.  Once again, don't @ me, Francophiles.  I love Kante, but he's a ball-winning midfielder, not strictly a holding midfielder.    Once again, Tite has shown a clear preference for Casemiro.  Fernandinho is super versatile, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him get minutes in a number of spots.  Paulinho is an amazing story.  He was a star of the 2013 Confederations Cup as a box to box, goalscoring midfielder.  He made a disastrous move to Tottenham.  He revived his career in China, but everyone still made jokes when Barcelona signed him.  And he spent the first part of this season popping up for big goals for Barca.  That form dried up, but he has featured regularly for the national team in the qualifiers and Brazil thrives with that type of wildcard scoring option.  I think Augusto is in direct competition with Coutinho.  My best guess is that both get at least one start.  

ATTACKERS (CAM, LW, RW, ST) -- Neymar Jr., Willian, Gabriel Jesus, Roberto Firmino, Phillipe Coutinho, Taison, Douglas Costa

Neymar is obviously the star. And while I've seen articles placing him at striker, I think he'll be at LW as he always is.  I also think Willian is the clear choice on the right.  He is, admittedly, a personal favorite of mine, but he seems to also be a Tite favorite and he blends a lot of skill with a high workrate.   So that leaves striker.  Gabriel Jesus has been the most common choice since 2016, with nine goals in 15 caps.  I think there's a tendency to think he took a step back this year because he got hurt and didn't beat out Aguero to start with City, but he still scored 17 goals in all competitions (including a lot of substitute appearances).  He is a quality finisher.  Firmino, however, is the most underrated complete forward in the game.  The importance of his movement from central areas to Liverpool's attack cannot be overestimated.  He's a big contributor to Mo Salah's success this year.  I'm not Tite, but I would lean toward a Neymar, Firmino, Willian forward line that is both highly skilled and very active.   So be sure to bet on the opposite.

Best guess lineup:

                           Alisson

Danilo        Marquinos   Miranda        Marcelo

                          Casemiro

            Paulinho             Coutinho

Willian                                              Neymar Jr.

                            Jesus

Prediction:  Runners-up

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Sammy3469 said:
I do sort of wonder if Spain gets rundown as the tournament progresses especially in the MF.  If they win their group they are facing 3 games in 9 days after having a relatively hard group travel schedule (Sochi to Kazan to Kalingrad).  I know all these guys have La Liga and CL games week in and week out, but its one thing to keep in mind (and I think this goes for Brazil as well)
Click to expand...
I think it's unlikely that Iniesta, for example, plays all three group games.  I think we could also easily see a forward rotation where Aspas and Costa split starts.  I probably have a higher opinion of Spain's depth than Cletius.  I think Vasquez and Asensio are really good.  Spain might look a little different with them on the right or Dave in at CB or FB, but I can see a functioning way the team could play in any of those scenarios.  

 
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
I think it's unlikely that Iniesta, for example, plays all three group games.  I think we could also easily see a forward rotation where Aspas and Costa split starts.  I probably have a higher opinion of Spain's depth than Cletius.  I think Vasquez and Asensio are really good.  Spain might look a little different with them on the right or Dave in at CB or FB, but I can see a functioning way the team could play in any of those scenarios.  
Click to expand...
I just sort of question the wisdom in wedding your formation and tactics to a guy that will probably only play 60-80 minutes a match and miss one of the group stage games.  Granted they have Saul (who the like for like sub for Iniesta in the March friendlies) and can bring Isco or Asensio back, but I do think he'll wear down.  If that matters is another question altogether, but I do like a relatively more rested German team against them in the semis if it came to that.  

 
And did Marco Alonso really not make the team? Every Chelsea game I watched, he was the most consistent player and dominant more often than not. Or do I have the wrong guy...

 
El Floppo said:
And did Marco Alonso really not make the team? Every Chelsea game I watched, he was the most consistent player and dominant more often than not. Or do I have the wrong guy...
Click to expand...
I think Kante was consistently better, but Alonso had a great season.  But I think his role is pretty strictly tied to Conte's 3-5-2 / 3-4-3 scheme.  He's neither a great defender nor a great attacking player, but good enough at both to be a near-perfect fit behind Hazard in Conte's system.  I can see how he wouldn't fit as well into a different system.  He's not good enough to be LB or a left winger for Spain imo.

 
Saw an article today that Fox is using mostly American announcers for their coverage. Awesome. Now we get to hear incessant talking for 98% of the game broadcast.

LET THE GAME BREATHE YOU STUPID ANNOUNCERS!!!

(apologies if you guys covered this already. just a huge pet peeve of mine)

 
CletiusMaximus said:
I think Kante was consistently better, but Alonso had a great season.  But I think his role is pretty strictly tied to Conte's 3-5-2 / 3-4-3 scheme.  He's neither a great defender nor a great attacking player, but good enough at both to be a near-perfect fit behind Hazard in Conte's system.  I can see how he wouldn't fit as well into a different system.  He's not good enough to be LB or a left winger for Spain imo.
Click to expand...
Sorry.... Forgot about Kante, who was fantastic.

Agree w the bolded. But where "good enough" is more "really good"...not great at either, but really good at both (better going forward imo). Would be a great off the bench sub when chasing a game, or start when wanting to push the agenda going forward. 

 
ChiefD said:
Saw an article today that Fox is using mostly American announcers for their coverage. Awesome. Now we get to hear incessant talking for 98% of the game broadcast.

LET THE GAME BREATHE YOU STUPID ANNOUNCERS!!!

(apologies if you guys covered this already. just a huge pet peeve of mine)
Click to expand...
Good news - they will all be in Los Angeles - and so it will probably be middle of the night for them when the games are played, so they won't have the energy to talk all game...

 
ChiefD said:
Saw an article today that Fox is using mostly American announcers for their coverage. Awesome. Now we get to hear incessant talking for 98% of the game broadcast.

LET THE GAME BREATHE YOU STUPID ANNOUNCERS!!!

(apologies if you guys covered this already. just a huge pet peeve of mine)
Click to expand...
This is partly why I like watching at a pub. 

that and booze

maybe not in that order

 
El Floppo said:
I figured out a way to turn the sounds down on my tv. Pm with any questions.
Click to expand...
Actually, if I unhook my center channel in my surround sound I should technically get rid of commentary while keeping crowd/game noise. Noticed this the other day while watching softball and the center channel wire was loose. I thought the sound was messed up because all I could hear was players chanting and the crowd.

:blackdot:

 
El Floppo said:
I figured out a way to turn the sounds down on my tv. Pm with any questions.
Click to expand...
But then you lose the crowd noise. There's gotta be someone willing to offer a turn down the commentators' mikes option on their broadcast. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The Gator said:
Actually, if I unhook my center channel in my surround sound I should technically get rid of commentary while keeping crowd/game noise. Noticed this the other day while watching softball and the center channel wire was loose. I thought the sound was messed up because all I could hear was players chanting and the crowd.

:blackdot:
Click to expand...
Oooh  :excited:

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Is Firmino seriously considered a candidate for PT?  I love the guy, but he's kind of unique and I'm not sure how he'd fit into most teams.
Click to expand...
It's kind of hard to find consensus, but I think he's at least in that Renato Augusto, Fagner, Fernandinho category of players who are not presumptive starters, but also not guys who you just don't expect to ever see.

I think Brazil is exactly the kind of team Firmino fits into well.  Because the ST is not going to be expected to be the main source of goals.  That's going to be Neymar at LW.  Firmino is, to my eye, a better passer and much better off-the-ball runner than Jesus.  

Whether it's Bobby or Jesus, at least we're not talking about Fred and Jo like in 2014.  

 
Pretty big blow for Argentina with Romero ruled out for the WC

Now they go in with GK's with a total of 2 caps - Cabellero (Chelsea), Armani, (River Plate), Guzman (Tigres)

:bye:

 
guru_007 said:
If it were me, yes, or Armani, because I've seen enough of Cabellero to know he is terrible. 
Click to expand...
River Plate has had a pretty disastrous season though, I don't follow closely, but I am pretty sure Armani is part of a rotation now. 

 
So yahoo has started it's group previews today.

Got me hoping the NJ Sports Books will open in time to take bets on the Golden Boot :)   Suarez and Cavani look promising if the odds are right.

-QG

 
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