Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
I think Aspas may make the most sense as a Spain sleeper. Reus is a good pick.CletiusMaximus said:
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***Official*** 2018 World Cup thread (and Drinking Guide) (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sinn Fein
- Start date
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Have an appointment at noon, but I might try a preview or two this afternoon.
I could do France, Argentina, Belgium, England, maybe Mexico or Portugal. Too far down the food chain and I know the players but don't really have much of an idea of where the depth chart stands. Colombia might be an interesting sleeper to take a look at.
I could do France, Argentina, Belgium, England, maybe Mexico or Portugal. Too far down the food chain and I know the players but don't really have much of an idea of where the depth chart stands. Colombia might be an interesting sleeper to take a look at.
Both at 25/1 or so.QuizGuy66 said:So yahoo has started it's group previews today.
Got me hoping the NJ Sports Books will open in time to take bets on the Golden BootSuarez and Cavani look promising if the odds are right.
-QG
I'd stick away from all Germans/French/Belgians as too may options will probably take goals from another. I do like Kane to score quite a few, but I am just not sure England will go that deep. If you can tell me Neymar is back 100% that would be my pick even at very short odds.
Lionel Messi +900
Neymar +1000
Antoine Griezmann +1200
Cristiano Ronaldo +1400
Gabriel Jesus +1600
Timo Werner +1600
Harry Kane +1600
Romelu Lukaku +1800
Edinson Cavani +2500
Luis Suarez +2500
Diego Costa +2500
Thomas Muller +3000
Sergio Aguero +3000
Robert Lewandowski +3300
Gonzalo Higuain +3300
Kylian Mbappe +3300
Olivier Giroud +4000
Radamel Falcao +4000
Paulo Dybala +4500
Eden Hazard +5000
Dries Mertens +5000
Isco +5000
Mario Gomez +6000
Roberto Firmino +6000
James Rodriguez +6600
Philippe Coutinho +7000
David Silva +7000
Andre Silva +8000
Mario Mandzukic +8000
Jamie Vardy +8000
Carlos Bacca +8500
Sadio Mane +8500
Ivan Perisic +9000
Leon Goretzka +10000
Paulinho +10000
Kevin De Bruyne +10000
Arkadiusz Milik +10000
Christian Eriksen +10000
Delli Alli +10000
Javier Hernandez +10000
Marcus Rashford +10000
Mesut Ozil +10000
Nikola Kalinic +10000
Ousmane Dembele +10000
Paul Pogba +10000
Raheem Sterling +10000
Fyodor Smolov +10000
Michy Batshuayi +10000
Aleksandr Mitrovic +12500
Oribe Peralta +12500
Hirving Lozano +12500
Marcus Berg +12500
Gylfi Sigurdsson +15000
Kelechi Iheanacho +15000
Diafra Sakho +15000
Nicolai Jorgensen +15000
Xherdan Shaqiri +15000
Emil Forsberg +15000
Moussa Sow +17500
Son Heung-Min +17500
Keisuke Honda +20000
Alan Dzagoev +22500
Adem Ljajic +25000
Tim Cahill +25000
Shinji Okazaki +25000
Bryan Ruiz +50000
Joel Campbell +50000
Luis Tejada +50000
Reza Ghoochannejhad +50000
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Wait, Tim Cahill is still playing for Australia?
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Thanks
Very informative.Reading the Group A preview it seems like the Uruguayans both will have plenty of opportunity to score (basically the Saudis qualified through offense and look to play that way - which should make for some entertaining ugly results like 8-2 against.
-QG
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Time to gear up. Looking for other recommended preview resources, other than Scoobie's excellent ongoing series here.
Here's what I've ordered so far:
8by8 preview edition (one year subscription required, which is 4 issues). This one is as much about the cool art as it is the content. Well worth it, looks great on the coffee table. Shipping this week. http://8by8mag.com/world-cup-2018-issue/
Wall Chart - my son and I enjoyed having one of these in '14
Official FIFA because, why not, they need the money. Comes out June 5:
Here's what I've ordered so far:
8by8 preview edition (one year subscription required, which is 4 issues). This one is as much about the cool art as it is the content. Well worth it, looks great on the coffee table. Shipping this week. http://8by8mag.com/world-cup-2018-issue/
Wall Chart - my son and I enjoyed having one of these in '14
Official FIFA because, why not, they need the money. Comes out June 5:
Last edited by a moderator:
El Floppo
Footballguy
And redbulls.
I think Dybala would be an interesting golden boot candidate... But I have no idea if he's even starting
El Floppo
Footballguy
I'm not a betting guy, but wouldn't you want to roll the dice on a guy whose team is most likely to make a deep run? Seems like the usual winners come from teams that make the semis at least, no?Thanks
Reading the Group A preview it seems like the Uruguayans both will have plenty of opportunity to score (basically the Saudis qualified through offense and look to play that way - which should make for some entertaining ugly results like 8-2 against.
-QG
cheese
Footballguy
Yes but the style of Germany and Spain make that a little harder. The favorites who have a main guy are the guys where the payouts are the lowest Neymar and Messi.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Listening to Henry Bushnell's prop bet podcast. Over/under 6.5 -- number of Prem players in the final.
Also, which club's players will have the most tournament goals?
These are fun to think about and I don't even gamble.
Also, which club's players will have the most tournament goals?
These are fun to think about and I don't even gamble.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
No PL referees on the list?
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Let's look at Uruguay's path...
Russia, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia - these set up to yield a lot of goals and seems to be a glide path for a group win.
Ah...yeah Portugal or Spain in the round of 16 is not ideal. But some of the appear of the two from Uruguay is the long odds. It is also true that are recent semi-finalists so it's not the craizest thing.
But while we're here let me take a look at what other "glide paths" seem out there or the trouble facing those that make it out of particular groups.
A - Uruguay is the one appealing option given what I said previously (chance for a disproportionate number of goals in the 3 group games - though Spain/Portugal is the likely knock out opponent which tempers things.
B - Portugal/Spain are good promise to get to the round of 8 - however if their opening game is not a draw the loser of the game has to worry about Morocco pipping them for a spot potentially. And Uruguay in the round of 16 is not ideal.
C - France has a pretty good set up in their group and pedigree to advance - but group D has some teeth - if Argentina gets off a little lackadaisical there could be France/Argentina in the round of 16.
D - It's a tough group and the 2nd place team probably gets France.
E - Brazil shouldn't have trouble with this bunch and winning the group probably avoids Germany and gets a more reasonable matchup up for the 1st knockout game. But Brazil being Brazil shorten the odds one could get. The Swiss could go on a run but you could probably give Switzerland two-dozen extra games and they still might not produce a player with enough goals for a golden boot.
F- Looking more at the E/F/G/H path and I can see the appeal - Germany is the one team in group that you can figure for a long run but again what kind of price?
G -The England/Belgium group has intrigue. Though winning the group probably puts them against Brazil in the round of 8. Side note - the schedule could definitely provide opportunity schenanigans - if Germany or Brazil stumble into a matchup with each other (one finishes first in group and the other takes 2nd in theirs) suddenly Belgium/England could have either a heavy incentive to win their last game (if Brazil loses group E) or a heavy incentive to lose (if Brazil is the one that comes in 2nd). Not that teams necessarily would play to lose but if one path gives you a Swiss/Swedish winner and the other a Brazil/Germany winner what do YOU do? But I can see Belgium as being a team that could offer a golden boot option at a decent price with a decent prospect to play in enough games to get it done.
H - Group H is so relatively weak that it really makes the group G choices pop out.
But I am no expert - what group do you guys see as being the one with the most defensively challenged teams? Which one is the most likely to yield at 8-1 score line of which golden boot dreams are made of?
-QG
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Yeah it's kinda too bad a World Cup NIT wasn't put together to have us and Italy and the Netherlands.
-QG
El Floppo
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Sebowski
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Fear The Turtle
Footballguy
Will there be a FBG 2018 World Cup fantasy league?
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Neymar played for the first time since February today and scored in a friendly against Croatia. Are we all good with that then? Brazil seems completely dependent on him. Does this mean it’s a clean bill of health? I thought he had essentially the same injury Neuer had.
El Floppo
Footballguy
cheese
Footballguy
I don’t know if there is something official somewhere or if it’s just because it was a friendly, but I watched Spain/Switzerland and it looked to me like a 4-2-3-1 with Iniesta, Silva, Aspas (LV sub) feeding Costa at striker. Maybe Isco playing would just replace Aspas in that lineup.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Couldn't believe that. Also puts a dent in the Citeh prop bet to score the most goals of any club. That was looking pretty good with Aguero, DeBruyne, Sterling, Silva and Sane.
shader
Footballguy
I'm not a big Sane fan just yet. I think he has great physical tools and has inflated assist numbers due to the insane firepower of City. If you watch Sane in difficult games (City didn't have many), he does his own thing, wastes too many dribbles and tries to rely on his physical skills. I suspect that in the structure of the German team, he currently mixes like oil and water.
In the end, he scored 10 PL goals last year and he's quite young. That isn't the kind of production that should make him an automatic German starter.
Scary thing is how much he (and Sterling/Jesus) can improve and what they did last season in the PL.
shader
Footballguy
KDB often fails in big games and I suspect he will have a very average WC. I like the players on Belgium but that team plays terrible together.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
It seems most expected Sane over Brandt. Ginter making the final 23 is also somewhat of a surprise. I guess Low is probably thinking Mueller -- Ozil -- Reus in the attacking 3 behind Werner. Brandt and Draxler can probably fill in any one of the 3 spots, as can Ozil. Although I think Sane can also play left and right. Its very tough competition obviously, but agree that is a shocker. The Germans probably don't take losing to Austria very well, even in a seemingly meaningless friendly.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
KDB was, by far, Belgium's best player in the 2014 World Cup. He had 10 chances created in a single game (with a goal and an assist). OK, it was against the US, but still ...
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
He had a great world cup in Brazil, but I agree with Shader's second comment, the Belgians don't often add up to the sum of their parts in recent years.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Oh, absolutely. I have them out in the first knockout game (and I have England winning their group because I can't stop myself). I just disagree about KDB. Hazard was a disappointment in 2014. Lukaku too, although it's tough to know how much that was on Wilmots pulling Divock Origi shenanigans. But KDB played terrific in big moments.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
I did a pick 'em game with my son over the weekend and would say seems like a somewhat weak group stage. We saw Chile play in the last Copa in Chicago, and all US fans have history with Ghana, so on a personal level there's quite a bit missing with Italy, Holland, Chile, USA and Ghana not there. There's really nothing close to a "group of death" and really only a couple groups with two really strong teams. I think the Group Stage actually looks a bit boring, which is just as well for me since I'll be very busy at work that first 10 days or so. I'm already kind of looking to the knockouts.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Wouldn't a lack of a group of death indicate that the new seeding method worked pretty well? I understand that it comes with the cost of lessening excitement in the group stage but it seems like it worked out pretty fairly overall.
A boring group stage will really be the harbinger of a superdull tournament when it expands to 48, though.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Yeah, most of the drama in the group stage, for me, is between the presumptive 1st and 2nd qualifiers. You could see, Germany, for instance, drawing with Mexico and maybe dropping to the 2nd position and then getting Brazil in the first knockout round. In my bracket, I have Argentina finishing second to Croatia and then losing to France in the first knock out round. I'm probably wrong about that, but I get bored picking chalk, and Argentina did not look good in qualifying.
The Gator
Footballguy
encaitar
Footballguy
Some of it is that true, but some of it is also not having US, Italy, and the Netherlands in the pot as 3 seeds or Ghana as a 4 seed too.
El Floppo
Footballguy
That was a real shock to me too. He was lights out in the last half of the EPL, arguably top 5 guy.
encaitar
Footballguy
Low doesn't seem to take club play into the equation as much as latest national team play. Sane has been really poor in the last year with Germany. Still a surprise, but understandable in that light.
El Floppo
Footballguy
This is arguably their best ever generation of players, mostly hitting their prime ages. I don't think referencing their past does much to acknowledge the unique qualities of this group. But yes, they don't have the experience of collwctively getting to a final, but for me this is the cup where they should be expected to go deep here.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
Has anyone done their ranking of how each pool will finish in the group stage?
