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Official 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread - Sebestian (2 Viewers)

That one guy said:
In true FL resident fashion, gonna take the fam to theme park in morning and then come home midday for the necessary hunkering down...really could use the shift north to show up over night
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My daughter and her bf want to go after the storm passes when they hope the crowds will be even lighter than normal for this time of year.

A friend of may was planning to go to a big conference starting this Thursday in Orlando, but it was cancelled 3 days ago. There is a negative economic impact overall. Publix was packed for a couple of days, but now that everyone stocked up, the stores in Miami were half empty today.

 
SoBeDad said:
My daughter and her bf want to go after the storm passes when they hope the crowds will be even lighter than normal for this time of year.

A friend of may was planning to go to a big conference starting this Thursday in Orlando, but it was cancelled 3 days ago. There is a negative economic impact overall. Publix was packed for a couple of days, but now that everyone stocked up, the stores in Miami were half empty today.
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SoBeSafe!

 
greedygoat said:
Certainly safer than where I was (5 miles from the east coast in Palm Beach County). 
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My house is up in Martin County, we got out on Saturday since we were going to Lakeland anyway. There's a greater than zero percent chance I might not have a house in one piece by midweek.

 
greedygoat said:
Couldn’t sit around and wait for the turn any longer. Loaded up the wife, kids and dog in the car, made the two hour drive across Alligator Alley from Boca Raton to Naples. Hopefully all for naught. Stay safe. 
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I guess I should set our lineup, eh?

In all seriousness, be safe and good luck.

 
My parents are in their 80's and are preparing to close on a house on Wilmington Island, GA within the next week or 10 days, followed by listing their house on Tybee Island.  Here's hoping that they get a reprieve from evacuating this year.  They had to evacuate for Matthew (7-10ft storm surge) in '16 and Irma in '17.  I remember trying to chase Hugo from DC to SAV in '89 for a wedding party.  I lost.

 
Kal El said:
My house is up in Martin County, we got out on Saturday since we were going to Lakeland anyway. There's a greater than zero percent chance I might not have a house in one piece by midweek.
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Condolences on the bold.

Hopefully youll return home to find your house has no major damage. 

 
11pm: 180 mph, 914 mb. Bad news for the Bahamas and Grand Bahama which will experience cat 5 winds for a long time.

Projected to be cat 4 by tomorrow evening and still miss Florida.

 
Wingnut said:
For shame, Disney. For shame!!!

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1168358601502732290?s=19
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Not as dire as the headline makes it out to be, but yes, Disney probably could have/should have played this differently.

Some of our Crew remained on the island and their care and safety is our highest priority. We are in regular contact with island leadership, who is making sure our Crew is well taken care of in our storm shelter, which is designed for these types of situations and has restrooms, power and is well stocked with food and water. Castaway Cay remains south of the more significant weather and is currently experiencing tropical storm force winds, which based on the current forecast, are expected for the next several hours before gradually diminishing.
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It blows my mind how much the talking heads are banking on this hard turn.  It is so big and strong, and so close to Florida.  I just hope it doesn't ride the southern side of Grand Bahama all the way into Florida.  I would be terrified if I was on that east coast there.  Yikes!

 
culdeus said:
The tracks at least had the eyewall north of Freeport and not taking a direct hit. :shrug:
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True. This is why I'm probably getting a fitful night of sleep waiting for 5am forecast. If the NHC is going to shift to a FL landfall officially, I think that's when they switch it. Just my 2 cents.

 
I'm just getting a feeling that this stays further south than the models are predicting, now how much further south or even if my feeling is right is up for debate

 
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I keep hearing it's going to turn East but it keeps moving due west, albeit at 5mph, but I'm still in that "I'll believe it when I see it stage"

 
5am nhc discussion-

Steering currents have weakened, and Dorian has almost come to a standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, with an initial motion of 270/1 kt. The mid-tropospheric high to the north of the hurricane that had been steering Dorian westward has collapsed. Global models indicate that, in a couple of days, a weakness in the ridge will develop along 75W-80W. This would likely cause Dorian to move northwestward to northward toward and through this weakness. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-tropospheric trough. The official track forecast is very close to the previous one and to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track.

 
Even with the optimistic NHC forecast, local JAX Mets are calling for 4 to 7 feet storm surge at the beaches. That's going to be an issue even if it skirts the coast.

 
Uruk-Hai said:
Are you in any of the evacuation zones?
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Technically, yes for Duval county. Not in a federal flood zone. I have a 3 foot wide creek in my backyard that became 30+ feet wide during Irma. It feeds into another creek which feeds into the St. John's.  Water would have needed to rise another 8 to 10 feet to come into house.

We're staying barring any change in forecast. We're 15 to 20 miles inland.  Matthew was not an issue for us.  Right now we're in a TS watch not the hurricane watch at the beaches.

@WeatherLauren: Our short-term forecast period will be dominated by Hurricane #Dorian. Hurricane Watch + Storm Surge Watch for coastal NE FL; Tropical Storm Watch for inland areas along the St. Johns River in NE FL #FCNStorm https://twitter.com/WeatherLauren/status/1168475558554021888/photo/1

 
Breaking news from Orlando- 

Buddy of mine evac'd to the house of mouse and he says current wait time at Galaxy's Edge is < 60 minutes.

This is not a drill.

 
JaxBill said:
Breaking news from Orlando- 

Buddy of mine evac'd to the house of mouse and he says current wait time at Galaxy's Edge is < 60 minutes.

This is not a drill.
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Out of context would think you were taking about a ride at Disney. Edit. Lol you are

 
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SoBeDad said:
That one guy said:
In true FL resident fashion, gonna take the fam to theme park in morning and then come home midday for the necessary hunkering down...really could use the shift north to show up over night
Click to expand...
My daughter and her bf want to go after the storm passes when they hope the crowds will be even lighter than normal for this time of year.

A friend of may was planning to go to a big conference starting this Thursday in Orlando, but it was cancelled 3 days ago. There is a negative economic impact overall. Publix was packed for a couple of days, but now that everyone stocked up, the stores in Miami were half empty today.
Click to expand...
Headed to Animal Kingdom after breakfast.  We were at Hollywood Studios on Monday and were able to get into the new SW land and ride the ride that was a 390+ wait the days prior.

 
Nhc and most Mets are happy with what happened overnight with respect to track prediction.  Guess sc gets the worst of this now.  

 
JaxBill said:
Breaking news from Orlando- 

Buddy of mine evac'd to the house of mouse and he says current wait time at Galaxy's Edge is < 60 minutes.

This is not a drill.
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We went yesterday and walked on to multiple rides. Good shtick. 

 
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