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Official 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread - Sebestian (1 Viewer)

bradyfan said:
If you look at the most dangerous hurricanes and typhoons in history, what people least prepared for are the storm surges.  They could be as deadly as tsunami under certain conditions.
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If you know you're hosed, I suppose it's worth a try, but I can't see thin plastic and duck tape holding up to a hurricane. A large roll of shrink wrap around the house several times could be interesting though.

 
According to the local news, the storm has hit a wall of pressure to the west and has nowhere to go until the upper trough dives to the south which will pull it and steer it to the north. That should happen some time in the next 12 hours or so, at which point it will speed up and start paralleling the east coast.

 
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JaxBill said:
No words

@bridgetteANjax: This person in Davis Shores PLASTIC WRAPPED THEIR HOME. Reinforced with duct tape & sandbags. What the #Florida #Dorian #wx #hurricaneprep https://twitter.com/bridgetteANjax/status/1168276625647185921/photo/1
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Wow. I have friends in Davis Shores. That area has flooded twice in four years. Bad. So I get the desperate measures. I would probably caulk the #### out of everything and hope for the best. Some are even using ratchet straps to try to keep the roof from peeling off.

 
for west palm beach and this area of Fla, this is the single greatest nothing burger in the history of nothing burgers.an absolute joke that weather channel throws everyone into a frenzy for buying gas,etc, and it never does anything - they knew it was going to miss us some 2-3 days ago.but yet they kept pushing the narrative.

we've had a typical rain day in west palm.light winds. less than 3 inches of rain.snorefest.

 
Tanner9919 said:
for west palm beach and this area of Fla, this is the single greatest nothing burger in the history of nothing burgers.an absolute joke that weather channel throws everyone into a frenzy for buying gas,etc, and it never does anything - they knew it was going to miss us some 2-3 days ago.but yet they kept pushing the narrative.

we've had a typical rain day in west palm.light winds. less than 3 inches of rain.snorefest.
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A couple of years ago Matthew was supposed to slam WPB as a cat 3 I think and they ended up getting next to nothing, the worst of it was well north around Merritt Island IIRC. My GF was living in West Palm at the time and I talked her into leaving and coming to my place in Lakeland because I thought it was gonna be ugly...and it wasn't.

 
Tanner9919 said:
for west palm beach and this area of Fla, this is the single greatest nothing burger in the history of nothing burgers.an absolute joke that weather channel throws everyone into a frenzy for buying gas,etc, and it never does anything - they knew it was going to miss us some 2-3 days ago.but yet they kept pushing the narrative.

we've had a typical rain day in west palm.light winds. less than 3 inches of rain.snorefest.
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I'm guessing you really don't understand how hurricanes work.  Just because someone lucked out doesn't mean that the warnings weren't valid.  Not everyone in a tornado warning gets slammed, and not all places in the potential hurricane track are going to get hit.  If you waited until the track was certain, it would be too late for most anyone to do anything about it.

So you were slightly inconvenienced.  Be grateful.

 
Tanner9919 said:
for west palm beach and this area of Fla, this is the single greatest nothing burger in the history of nothing burgers.an absolute joke that weather channel throws everyone into a frenzy for buying gas,etc, and it never does anything - they knew it was going to miss us some 2-3 days ago.but yet they kept pushing the narrative.

we've had a typical rain day in west palm.light winds. less than 3 inches of rain.snorefest.
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Better luck next time?

 
Flight back to Tampa at 12:55 pm is still a go as of 6 am ET. Hopefully I can get back on time.

 
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Tanner9919 said:
for west palm beach and this area of Fla, this is the single greatest nothing burger in the history of nothing burgers.an absolute joke that weather channel throws everyone into a frenzy for buying gas,etc, and it never does anything - they knew it was going to miss us some 2-3 days ago.but yet they kept pushing the narrative.

we've had a typical rain day in west palm.light winds. less than 3 inches of rain.snorefest.
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Thanks for announcing that you don’t understand probabilities.

 
Tanner9919 said:
for west palm beach and this area of Fla, this is the single greatest nothing burger in the history of nothing burgers.an absolute joke that weather channel throws everyone into a frenzy for buying gas,etc, and it never does anything - they knew it was going to miss us some 2-3 days ago.but yet they kept pushing the narrative.

we've had a typical rain day in west palm.light winds. less than 3 inches of rain.snorefest.
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Didn't fall for it. When the eye is projected to pass I've you 3-5 or more  days out, it's not going to. 31 generators sold at lowes this week are now being returned along with a ton of everything. All ya gotta due is be able to understand what the H and L pressure areas are doing. It was obvious when the H in GA moved east, the hurricane would move east. 

 
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Capella said:
Tanner9919 said:
for west palm beach and this area of Fla, this is the single greatest nothing burger in the history of nothing burgers.an absolute joke that weather channel throws everyone into a frenzy for buying gas,etc, and it never does anything - they knew it was going to miss us some 2-3 days ago.but yet they kept pushing the narrative.

we've had a typical rain day in west palm.light winds. less than 3 inches of rain.snorefest.
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Thanks for announcing that you don’t understand probabilities.
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Or understanding that events like Andrew actually do happen.  

 
Osaurus said:
Flight back to Tampa at 12:55 pm is still a go as of 6 am ET. Hopefully I can get back on time.
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Moved mine in to Fort Myers later this evening.  Crossing fingers here.

All of FLL was closed yesterday but I think I heard Miami airport was open which is odd.

 
TheIronSheik said:
One thing I've noticed with the models is that no matter where Dorian has shifted to for landfall, one thing has been consistent:  It's getting shallower and shallower on impact.  2 days ago, the thought was it would enter the gulf and possibly make a second landfall on the panhandle.  Then yesterday it would stall over central Florida and move up the interior coast.  Newest models are barely bringing it onshore.  

I am by no means saying this thing isn't going to make a direct hit, but there's a reason the mets say "Observe the Curve" and "The Trend is Your Friend."  
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:bowtie:

 
One of the main things climate wise worth observing is how general steering is less strong.  This is due to the lack of deviation in temps pole to pole.  Florida itself was lucky.  A couple hours here or there with the ridge and Miami gets the Bahamas treatment.  

 
eoMMan said:
No disrespect to you, Mr. Iron Sheik...

But it drives me nuts when the local news brags about their particular meteorologist predicting the turn/path FIRST.  "Only WABC's own Brad Dinghickle was the FIRST to predict the right hand turn that gave you 15 more minutes!" 
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None taken.  It wasn't meant so much to be a brag.  It was more to just congratulate myself that I saw the turn coming.  I'm the first to admit I've been wrong probably more times than right.  I was just patting myself on the back a little.

 
The stall started to become a reality when the block in the Gulf moved in quicker than expected and the block to the north was slower and bigger.

Tropical systems are much like electricity:  Always looking for the easiest route.  And for as big as these storms are, they are easily influenced.  That's why you'll always hear the comparison to a spinning top on a table.  Initially, Dorian was going to move onshore of FL and run into the block in the GOM.  As that stopped it's forward progress, the block in the north would slide out of the way and the trough could snatch him up and pull him north and then out to sea.

But Dorian was left with no escape route and when that happens, it stalls.  This is not a rare thing or an unusual thing.  Most times, the stall happens out to sea.  The Bahamas just won the "Bad Luck Lottery" by having it stall over land.  It's the same lottery that Houston won with Harvey.  There's not outside cause other than that's how weather works.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
The stall started to become a reality when the block in the Gulf moved in quicker than expected and the block to the north was slower and bigger.

Tropical systems are much like electricity:  Always looking for the easiest route.  And for as big as these storms are, they are easily influenced.  That's why you'll always hear the comparison to a spinning top on a table.  Initially, Dorian was going to move onshore of FL and run into the block in the GOM.  As that stopped it's forward progress, the block in the north would slide out of the way and the trough could snatch him up and pull him north and then out to sea.

But Dorian was left with no escape route and when that happens, it stalls.  This is not a rare thing or an unusual thing.  Most times, the stall happens out to sea.  The Bahamas just won the "Bad Luck Lottery" by having it stall over land.  It's the same lottery that Houston won with Harvey.  There's not outside cause other than that's how weather works.  
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My thought this whole time was that it was going north simply because of the gulf stream.  I really hadn't paid much attention to the gulf stream until we moved here and began doing a lot of fishing out that way.  It's an unbelievable force in the water.  And I thought that because of the bold.  When you see something going that slow, that is that compact, it seems like the gulf stream is going to handle it and prevent a direct hit most of the time.  Another part of me wondered, when it stopped, that if it would just fizzle out.

 
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TheIronSheik said:
Always looking for the easiest route.  And for as big as these storms are, they are easily influenced.
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Yes, you have to look at what is going on around it.

Senor Schmutzig said:
Currently there are 4 other disturbances in the Atlantic to keep an eye on. 
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I leave in three weeks for a Charleston to Bermuda cruise, we will need a gap in this action please.

TheIronSheik said:
How'd they get a satellite photo of that?  Isn't Dorian still sitting on top of it? 
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They can use laser imaging to do this.  It will pass right through the clouds.

 
This is a good time to remind people that a hurricane doesn't need to make landfall for it to have extremely dangerous conditions affecting areas.  Florida up to OBX should be taking this storm seriously still.

 
After reading some of the most idiotic comments blaming the Weather Channel, etc for reporting facts on this storm, I swear that some people are “upset” because this storm is turning away from Florida.  :wall:

I live in Orlando. I boarded up my windows and prepped for this hurricane. Did it take some time and effort to do so? Yep. Am i pissed because I did it? Hell no. One wobble yesterday evening and this thing could have come up I95 instead of in the Atlantic. 

People being mad at the weather forecasters and saying they are inciting panic are idiots. Be safe to all those still in the path of Dorian. I will happily take the plywood down once the  winds pass.

 
Starting to see alternating bands of wind and rain this morning.  Water remains high in the lagoon but mostly due to King tide, no significant storm surge yet. I think we're going to see the worst of it this evening through tomorrow. But the worst is a heck of a lot better than what we thought a few days ago.

 
Ron Swanson said:
Starting to see alternating bands of wind and rain this morning.  Water remains high in the lagoon but mostly due to King tide, no significant storm surge yet. I think we're going to see the worst of it this evening through tomorrow. But the worst is a heck of a lot better than what we thought a few days ago.
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Yep...coming and going with a little wind inland from you.  The St Johns has been pretty full this entire summer.  I can't imagine what is possible should surges start pushing water back into the St Johns once it gets up to Jax.

 
Tanner9919 said:
for west palm beach and this area of Fla, this is the single greatest nothing burger in the history of nothing burgers.an absolute joke that weather channel throws everyone into a frenzy for buying gas,etc, and it never does anything - they knew it was going to miss us some 2-3 days ago.but yet they kept pushing the narrative.

we've had a typical rain day in west palm.light winds. less than 3 inches of rain.snorefest.
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You sound upset that you missed out on this hurricane.

 
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