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Official 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread - Sebestian (1 Viewer)

The Commish said:
Yep...coming and going with a little wind inland from you.  The St Johns has been pretty full this entire summer.  I can't imagine what is possible should surges start pushing water back into the St Johns once it gets up to Jax.
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Locally they're saying St. John's should only surge 1-2 feet. The beaches and intracoastal should be worse with 4 to 7 feet above the King Tides.

 
JaxBill said:
Locally they're saying St. John's should only surge 1-2 feet. The beaches and intracoastal should be worse with 4 to 7 feet above the King Tides.
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I hope not.  I really don't want to have to rebuild my dock again. But, first world problems...  

 
Another thing to be mindful of is a powerful Cat 5 hurricane is usually tightly wound and covers a small area.  But as Dorian starts to lose strength, it should become a much bigger storm.  The Cone of Uncertainty only reflects the center of the storm.  Remember that the effects of the storm can be felt well outside of the COU.  

 
Tanner9919 said:
for west palm beach and this area of Fla, this is the single greatest nothing burger in the history of nothing burgers.an absolute joke that weather channel throws everyone into a frenzy for buying gas,etc, and it never does anything - they knew it was going to miss us some 2-3 days ago.but yet they kept pushing the narrative.

we've had a typical rain day in west palm.light winds. less than 3 inches of rain.snorefest.
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It's true.  If there's one thing mets find funny is knowing where a storm is heading 3 days out, but pretending it's going to hit somewhere else.  Oh my God, the looks on people's faces when they think they are in danger.   :lol:  

 
MindCrime said:
After reading some of the most idiotic comments blaming the Weather Channel, etc for reporting facts on this storm, I swear that some people are “upset” because this storm is turning away from Florida.  :wall:

I live in Orlando. I boarded up my windows and prepped for this hurricane. Did it take some time and effort to do so? Yep. Am i pissed because I did it? Hell no. One wobble yesterday evening and this thing could have come up I95 instead of in the Atlantic. 

People being mad at the weather forecasters and saying they are inciting panic are idiots. Be safe to all those still in the path of Dorian. I will happily take the plywood down once the  winds pass.
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Yup.  And it isn’t like there’s zero chance of things changing. 

Yeah, now there’s a 95% chance most of those areas won’t get any life threatening weather now. But if there were a 1/20 chance that what’s happening in the Bahamas would happen to me, I would be gone with the wind. 

 
I'm not sure who this Josh Morgerman guy is, but apparently he chases hurricanes.  He was in the Bahamas and was talking about how he was pretty sure he'd be in the path of the eyewall.  His last tweet said it was getting scary and he had taken his kids to what he considered a safe place.  He hasn't been heard from since.

I hope they're all right, but my first thought was: Why are your kids with you?  If you want to put yourself in harms way, whatever.  But to have your kids with you is criminal.

 
TheIronSheik said:
I'm not sure who this Josh Morgerman guy is, but apparently he chases hurricanes.  He was in the Bahamas and was talking about how he was pretty sure he'd be in the path of the eyewall.  His last tweet said it was getting scary and he had taken his kids to what he considered a safe place.  He hasn't been heard from since.

I hope they're all right, but my first thought was: Why are your kids with you?  If you want to put yourself in harms way, whatever.  But to have your kids with you is criminal.
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Maybe his kids are adults? I just don’t know.  That’s horrifying. 

 
Do we expect there to be impacted zipcodes from FEMA/USPS as a result of the storm surge and the forecasted path of the hurricane? Is it still too early to make that prediction?

 
cubd8 said:
Do we expect there to be impacted zipcodes from FEMA/USPS as a result of the storm surge and the forecasted path of the hurricane? Is it still too early to make that prediction?
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Too early, I would think.

FEMA normally declares eligibility for aid by county, not by ZIP code. USPS presumably has its own system for tracking areas where delivery is/will be impacted.

 
Other people are pointing out that China is investing several billions into the area for a deep water port.  So there is incentive to keep people there from their perspective.  

 
Apparently that guy has a new show premiering September 15th on Science Channel.  It's called Hurricane Man.  I wonder if they'll still show it if this guy doesn't turn up by then.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Apparently that guy has a new show premiering September 15th on Science Channel.  It's called Hurricane Man.  I wonder if they'll still show it if this guy doesn't turn up by then.
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could get herzog to direct, similar to grizzly man.

 
Models have this thing stopping the east path and looking for a NC/SC border landfall.  

IR/Sat has it cleaning out it's eye and potentially deepening and hitting some warmer waters soon, as it picks up speed. Windfield now much larger than forecast, but is actually more typical as the windfield was smallish for a storm of that strength up to this point.

Not sure what is considered bad for NC/SC. Cat 2/3 ish landfall is now shown on GFS/Euro.  Would expect track shift from NHC to reflect this.  Needed to speed up so it can catch the ridge to push more offshore rather than direct landfall.  Didn't happen.

How far in does SC/NC evacuate for a Cat2?

 
culdeus said:
Models have this thing stopping the east path and looking for a NC/SC border landfall.  

IR/Sat has it cleaning out it's eye and potentially deepening and hitting some warmer waters soon, as it picks up speed. Windfield now much larger than forecast, but is actually more typical as the windfield was smallish for a storm of that strength up to this point.

Not sure what is considered bad for NC/SC. Cat 2/3 ish landfall is now shown on GFS/Euro.  Would expect track shift from NHC to reflect this.  Needed to speed up so it can catch the ridge to push more offshore rather than direct landfall.  Didn't happen.

How far in does SC/NC evacuate for a Cat2?
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You'd have to go a good ways away...Hugo was a 4 when it hit and parked itself over Charlotte.  We had damaging winds all the way in Asheville for a day, day and a half.

 
The thought process for hurricane evacuations is more based on flooding than on wind.  Unless it's a major hurricane, like a high 3 or better.  Not super familiar with SC and the coast, but if it's low lying, that's when authorities tend to start issuing evacuations.

 
TheIronSheik said:
The thought process for hurricane evacuations is more based on flooding than on wind.  Unless it's a major hurricane, like a high 3 or better.  Not super familiar with SC and the coast, but if it's low lying, that's when authorities tend to start issuing evacuations.
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In my experience, the mountains collecting all the rain water and funneling it into the rivers and overwhelming the rivers is usually a big problem.  The coastal areas of both NC and SC go pretty far inland...pretty flat, but the populated areas along the rivers get hammered too.

 
The Commish said:
In my experience, the mountains collecting all the rain water and funneling it into the rivers and overwhelming the rivers is usually a big problem.  The coastal areas of both NC and SC go pretty far inland...pretty flat, but the populated areas along the rivers get hammered too.
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Exactly.  When I say flooding, I don't just mean coastal flooding.  Rivers can be terrible places to be around if 20 inches of rain drops in a 8 hour period.  

If you (and I don't mean you) live near a body of water and a hurricane is coming your way, might want to think about evacuating to higher/safer ground.

 
I understand why you folks live where you do but having to worry about this every year would make me bonkers.  Teddy Bonkers.  GB you. 

 
Sheriff Bart said:
I understand why you folks live where you do but having to worry about this every year would make me bonkers.  Teddy Bonkers.  GB you. 
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The way I look at it is you deal with some sort of natural disasters anywhere you live:

California/West Coast, you're dealing with potential earthquakes. No warning. 

Midwest/Central Plains you have tornadoes. No warning.

At least with hurricanes, you have quite a few days warning. You can prepare and GTFO. Or stay, if you're into that sort of thing.

I have lived in Miami for 10 years this February. I evacuated for Irma back in 2017 (but in retrospect, it wasn't necessary). Other than that, I have put up my hurricane shutters two other times (including this weekend), again both times unnecessary.

It's just something that you deal with. Sure as hell prefer dealing with a potential hurricane every once in a while then deal with blizzards, floods, tornadoes, fires, earthquakes, etc. 

None of those have ever been much of a problem in South Florida. At least not like it is in other parts of the country. 

 
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Senor Schmutzig said:
The way I look at it is you deal with some sort of natural disasters anywhere you live:

California/West Coast, you're dealing with potential earthquakes. No warning. 

Midwest/Central Plains you have tornadoes. No warning.

At least with hurricanes, you have quite a few days warning. You can prepare and GTFO. Or stay, if you're into that sort of thing.

I have lived in Miami for 10 years this February. I evacuated for Irma back in 2017 (but in retrospect, it wasn't necessary). Other than that, I have put up my hurricane shutters two other times (including this weekend), again both times unnecessary.

It's just something that you deal with. Sure as hell prefer dealing with a potential hurricane every once in a while then deal with blizzards, floods, tornadoes, fires, earthquakes, etc. 

None of those have ever been much of a problem in South Florida. At least not like it is in other parts of the country. 
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Same here. I quasi-evacuated for Michael because I had an appointment in Orlando the day after. I didn’t want to get stuck behind all the debris. If I lived an hour west I would have evacuated on purpose. It’s way better than snow, earthquakes, wild fire, tornadoes. But I think it’s all about what you’re used to. My friend in CA fell 20 stories in an elevator in that big earthquake in San Francisco in 19xx? But she made her husband leave Florida and turn down a job because a hurricane was coming in 2004. 

 
Sheriff Bart said:
I understand why you folks live where you do but having to worry about this every year would make me bonkers.  Teddy Bonkers.  GB you. 
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The biggest problem most people face is lack of electricity after the storm, sometimes for a week or more. Many who have generators can only power the fridge, lights and some fans, but not the AC. Nice older communities have lots of mature vegetation and above ground power lines, a recipe for a long power outage. Newer communities have below ground power lines, and typically lose power for a short time. I know people who left the Miami area after being without power twice in 2005, after Katrina in August and Wilma in October. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
I'm not sure who this Josh Morgerman guy is, but apparently he chases hurricanes.  He was in the Bahamas and was talking about how he was pretty sure he'd be in the path of the eyewall.  His last tweet said it was getting scary and he had taken his kids to what he considered a safe place.  He hasn't been heard from since.

I hope they're all right, but my first thought was: Why are your kids with you?  If you want to put yourself in harms way, whatever.  But to have your kids with you is criminal.
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@iCyclone: Yep, I’m alive. Made it to Nassau. #Hurricane #DORIAN: By far the most intense cyclone I’ve witnessed in 28 years of chasing. Thought I was playing it safe by riding it out in a solid-concrete school on a hill in Marsh Harbour. Thought wrong.

 
Senor Schmutzig said:
The way I look at it is you deal with some sort of natural disasters anywhere you live:

California/West Coast, you're dealing with potential earthquakes. No warning. 

Midwest/Central Plains you have tornadoes. No warning.

At least with hurricanes, you have quite a few days warning. You can prepare and GTFO. Or stay, if you're into that sort of thing.

I have lived in Miami for 10 years this February. I evacuated for Irma back in 2017 (but in retrospect, it wasn't necessary). Other than that, I have put up my hurricane shutters two other times (including this weekend), again both times unnecessary.

It's just something that you deal with. Sure as hell prefer dealing with a potential hurricane every once in a while then deal with blizzards, floods, tornadoes, fires, earthquakes, etc. 

None of those have ever been much of a problem in South Florida. At least not like it is in other parts of the country. 
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Sort of true.  There are warnings before tornadoes and when they do hit they are rather isolated.  If a tornado was going to cover the entire state like hurricanes can would have to move to another planet. 

Again, not a slam, I admire your resilience. I happened to be vacationing when Erin hit in 95 and was too dumb (stoned, drunk, stoned) to understand the seriousness of the situation.  Everyone deserting town should have been a tip off but.. well, you know. 

 
SoBeDad said:
The biggest problem most people face is lack of electricity after the storm, sometimes for a week or more. Many who have generators can only power the fridge, lights and some fans, but not the AC. Nice older communities have lots of mature vegetation and above ground power lines, a recipe for a long power outage. Newer communities have below ground power lines, and typically lose power for a short time. I know people who left the Miami area after being without power twice in 2005, after Katrina in August and Wilma in October. 
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About 15 years ago got hit with a rare ice storm that knocked out power for 10 days.  It took all of about an hour until it was like Road Warrior. It was hellish. 

 
@SCDOTPress: Lane reversal operations on I-26 in South Carolina will cease at noon Wednesday so that crews can seek shelter at safe locations outside of the storm’s projected path. #Dorian

 
Sheriff Bart said:
About 15 years ago got hit with a rare ice storm that knocked out power for 10 days.  It took all of about an hour until it was like Road Warrior. It was hellish. 
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It’s easy to forget that in some ways the beginning of real modernity was the electric light.  Without it, we devolve pretty quickly. 

 
Optimism is setting the coffee maker for tomorrow morning when the first squalls are supposed to hit in the middle of the night.

 
culdeus said:
Models have this thing stopping the east path and looking for a NC/SC border landfall.  

IR/Sat has it cleaning out it's eye and potentially deepening and hitting some warmer waters soon, as it picks up speed. Windfield now much larger than forecast, but is actually more typical as the windfield was smallish for a storm of that strength up to this point.

Not sure what is considered bad for NC/SC. Cat 2/3 ish landfall is now shown on GFS/Euro.  Would expect track shift from NHC to reflect this.  Needed to speed up so it can catch the ridge to push more offshore rather than direct landfall.  Didn't happen.

How far in does SC/NC evacuate for a Cat2?
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Cat 3 Hugo was no joke.  It beelined ashore near Charleston instead of riding the cost, but not sure if that's better or worse.

 
Those videos out of the Bahamas look more like the Indonesian tsunami than a hurricane.  The devastation is impossibly widespread to be so bad.

 
The eye is almost parallel with us now...still a bit south, but close.  So far, it has been a bit gusty and there were heavy winds earlier but the last 2-3 hours have been remarkably calm and the surge has not shown up in the intracoastal just yet.  I'm shocked, and cautiously optimistic.

 
Damn. Dorian snores worse than I do. Woke me from a deep slumber. 

At least there's a break in the red cells. Time to go back to bed.

 
Ron Swanson said:
The eye is almost parallel with us now...still a bit south, but close.  So far, it has been a bit gusty and there were heavy winds earlier but the last 2-3 hours have been remarkably calm and the surge has not shown up in the intracoastal just yet.  I'm shocked, and cautiously optimistic.
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Doesn't appear we had much at all.  If we did, I slept through it....so did the family.  Good windows really make a difference.  Wind is blowing a good bit, but not enough to even know the pine cones out of the trees.  Electricity hasn't even thought about going out.

 
Tracks really taking dead aim at a glancing Charleston hit.  For a mid major hurricane this maybe worse than a direct 4 that runs onshore since it will interact with more coastline as a 2/3.   

Also picking up a tad bit of strength this am.  Not a lot.

 
TheIronSheik said:
I know it doesn't seem it, but hurricanes coming from the Atlantic basin have a lot of things working against them that keep them from hitting the US.  First, you have the islands like Cuba and the DR, which have fairly large mountains on them.  If hurricanes cross them, they get ripped apart and lose a lot of their energy.  If a storm is heading for the Gulf of Mexico, it's got to miss these islands usually to the south.  Then there's the Yucatan Peninsula which will also weaken a storm.  For a storm to not lose any energy moving into the GOM, it's got to navigate about a 130 mile path between Cuba and the YP.  If it hits either of those, it will lose a lot of power.  From memory, the only storm I can really remember navigating through there perfect was Ike.  If weakened, it'll need to be slow enough moving through the GOM to reintensify.   But a lot of these storms don't get caught up in the jet stream and just continue west into Mexico.  

If the storm is heading to the east coast, the timing has to be perfect.  Because as a front moves through, it will sweep up the storm and recurve it back out to sea.  Hell, even without a front, the jet stream can repel the storm like a bullet proof vest.  It's why you'll see a storm move up the coast and as it gets to the Mid Atlantic, make a hard right and be near Europe in a couple of days.  Of course, if the jet stream bends and a trough comes about, you can actually have the jet stream help move a storm west into land.  These are rare and are just a byproduct of "right place at the right time", but they do happen.  Best example here would be Sandy.

So as the Cape Verde season picks up, it's important to be aware that not every storm that forms out in the Atlantic basin is on a collision course with the US.  Obviously, some do.  But more don't than do.  It's always good to be prepared, but I just wanted to give a primer in what we're looking at here in the next couple of months.
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Looks like we'll chalk another one up to the bullet proof vest.  

 
There's a massive relief effort in South Florida to help the people in the Bahamas. Radio stations, tv stations, marinas, non-profits and churches are collecting water, diapers, canned goods, generators, etc. People are donating their planes and boats to help transport these donations. The cruise industry is offering help. There are deep ties between the Bahamas and South Florida, but most people who are donating supplies or time just want to help people in need. There are similar efforts in central Florida and elsewhere. This is humanity at its best.

 
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SoBeDad said:
There's a massive relief effort in South Florida to help the people in the Bahamas. Radio stations, tv stations, marinas, non-profits and churches are collecting water, diapers, canned goods, generators, etc. People are donating their planes and boats to help transport these donations. The cruise industry is offering help. There are deep ties between the Bahamas and South Florida, but most people who are donating supplies or time just want to help people in need. There are similar efforts in central Florida and elsewhere. This is humanity at its best.
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Do you happen to have a list of organizations we can get in touch with to donate time for whatever they need help with?  I'm not finding much around me.  I've reached out to my local district rep but haven't heard back from her yet.

 
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