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Official 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread - Sebestian (1 Viewer)

Live in central Fl. And watched Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 go east, then loop back south, then push west again across our state. While i like the projected turn of Dorian, i’m still in high alert. This thing is brutal.

 
National Hurricane Center

The eye of #Dorian has made a second landfall at 2 pm EDT (1800 UTC) on Great Abaco Island near Marsh Harbour. Maximum sustained winds were 185 mph at the time. This is tied for the strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall on record with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane.
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That one didn't have a name, but came ashore in Florida and then held its strength by drawing energy as it crossed Lake Okeechobee.

For the lit buffs, Zora Neale Hurston told the tale of that storm as a chapter in Their Eyes Were Watching God.

 
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Multiple hunters in the storm right now.  Trying to get ideal data set for the night model runs.  

Things I wouldn't do no matter the salary.  

 
FL govener just said hurricane still tracking west beside models showing north track at some point.  More of a concern for FL.

 
Looking more like this little ******* is going to hug the entire coast.  Could really hit at any point right now.  Crazy

 
culdeus said:
Multiple hunters in the storm right now.  Trying to get ideal data set for the night model runs.  

Things I wouldn't do no matter the salary.  
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What does this mean? What do 'hunters' actually do? I don't mean this demeaning....but trying to understand. Do they travel to where the storm is for temperature and wind pressure? 

 
cubd8 said:
What does this mean? What do 'hunters' actually do? I don't mean this demeaning....but trying to understand. Do they travel to where the storm is for temperature and wind pressure? 
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Exactly...they gather data directly from the storm system.

 
It amazes me that this huge, monumental, historic storm is 200 miles away and heading straight toward me but due to science, math and some very smart people, I'm not very concerned because it's going to make that swing to the north due to troughs, ridges, high and low pressure systems and a bunch of other stuff that I sort of understand but not really.

While I get why  all the complainers out there that think that "they" should be able to predict the tracks better, I'm pretty damn impressed how far forecasting has come over the last 10-15 years. It's not a perfect science by any means but is sure is a hell of a lot more accurate now than it was not very long ago. 

Simply amazing.  

 
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Senor Schmutzig said:
It amazes me that this huge, monumental, historic storm is 200 miles away and heading straight toward me but due to science, math and some very smart people, I'm not very concerned because it's going to make that swing to the north due to troughs, ridges, high and low pressure systems and a bunch of other stuff that I sort of understand but not really.

While I get why  all the complainers out there that think that "they" should be able to predict the tracks better, I'm pretty damn impressed how far forecasting has come over the last 10-15 years. It's not a perfect science by any means but is sure is a hell of a lot more accurate now than it was not very long ago. 

Simply amazing.  
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Nhc is absolutely stone cold staring down this thing and is like not today.  

 
Senor Schmutzig said:
It amazes me that this huge, monumental, historic storm is 200 miles away and heading straight toward me but due to science, math and some very smart people, I'm not very concerned because it's going to make that swing to the north due to troughs, ridges, high and low pressure systems and a bunch of other stuff that I sort of understand but not really.

While I get why  all the complainers out there that think that "they" should be able to predict the tracks better, I'm pretty damn impressed how far forecasting has come over the last 10-15 years. It's not a perfect science by any means but is sure is a hell of a lot more accurate now than it was not very long ago. 

Simply amazing.  
Click to expand...
Definitely more accurate than 10-15 years ago.

However, last Tuesday there was only one outlier model predicting it would even grow to a category 3 storm. The official projection was a 70 mph tropical storm hitting Florida today. But them it missed Puerto Rico altogether, strengthened  and the rest is history. 

 
SoBeDad said:
Definitely more accurate than 10-15 years ago.

However, last Tuesday there was only one outlier model predicting it would even grow to a category 3 storm. The official projection was a 70 mph tropical storm hitting Florida today. But them it missed Puerto Rico altogether, strengthened  and the rest is history. 
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The paths have definitely gotten better, but intensity is still a crapshoot. This thing was barely wider than Puerto Rico before it went Super.

 
Kal El said:
The paths have definitely gotten better, but intensity is still a crapshoot. This thing was barely wider than Puerto Rico before it went Super.
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Even intesity is getting better.  Even though Ike was "just" a Cat 2 when it hit here (Houston), the storm surge was well predicted.  A lot of people died because they were focused on the wind speed, rather than the overall picture.  And the rainfall predictions for Harvey were also spot on.  The CBS affiliate meteorologists didn't think that 50 inches of rain could be possible, but they reported it anyway.  I really thought that TS Allison was the gold standard for rain here.  Oops.

But hurricanes do what they want to.  Ike approached and retreated a few times before finally making landfall.  Rita wobbled quite a lot before finding Beaumont/Port Arthur.  

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
That one didn't have a name, but came ashore in Florida and then held its strength by drawing energy as it crossed Lake Okeechobee.

For the lit buffs, Zora Neale Hurston told the tale of that storm as a chapter in Their Eyes Were Watching God.
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There had to have been snakes flying everywhere.

 
In true FL resident fashion, gonna take the fam to theme park in morning and then come home midday for the necessary hunkering down...really could use the shift north to show up over night

 
Couldn’t sit around and wait for the turn any longer. Loaded up the wife, kids and dog in the car, made the two hour drive across Alligator Alley from Boca Raton to Naples. Hopefully all for naught. Stay safe. 

 
greedygoat said:
Couldn’t sit around and wait for the turn any longer. Loaded up the wife, kids and dog in the car, made the two hour drive across Alligator Alley from Boca Raton to Naples. Hopefully all for naught. Stay safe. 
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I'm not up to speed on the storm at the momemt (no pun itended), but our we confident at this point that Dorian will curve north?

 
Mr. Ham said:
He kind of casually says near the end that he thinks HWRF is most likely, and that predicts Florida landfall at Cape Canaveral. If it weakens from upwelling, lower level steering currents pushing West may prevail. 
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I mean the hwrf has some decent track history close in.  Tomorrow going to be a popcorn event if it wasn't so serious

 
Mister CIA said:
I'm not up to speed on the storm at the momemt (no pun itended), but our we confident at this point that Dorian will curve north?
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It has to due to the ridges and other weather thingies that are gonna pull the storm north. It has no choice.

 
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