Third update on
this post. Trying to bury the Trump posts...
Per Spotrac, the Chargers currently have 62 players under contract for 2019. We also know the team has 7 draft picks, so there will be 7 more players added to the roster from the draft. Here is a list of those players and draft picks, along with their current 2019 cap hits:
- QB Philip Rivers $23,000,000
- OLB Melvin Ingram $19,625,000
- LT Russell Okung $15,968,750
- WR Keenan Allen $12,150,000
- CB Casey Hayward $10,000,000
- C Mike Pouncey $9,250,000
- DE Joey Bosa $8,232,538
- WR Travis Benjamin $6,500,000
- RB Melvin Gordon $5,605,000
- WR Mike Williams $5,386,344
- G Michael Schofield $4,500,000
- DT Brandon Mebane $4,300,000
- QB Tyrod Taylor $3,500,000
- MLB Denzel Perryman $3,475,000
- TE Virgil Green $3,300,000
- OLB Thomas Davis $3,250,000
- S Derwin James $2,815,671
- ILB Jatavis Brown $2,071,097
- Round 1 draft pick (28) $2,064,769
- TE Hunter Henry $2,030,100
- CB Trevor Williams $2,025,000
- S Adrian Phillips $2,000,000
- ILB Nick Dzubnar $1,922,500
- G Forrest Lamp $1,818,251
- LB Uchenna Nwosu $1,308,994
- LS Mike Windt $1,085,000
- G Dan Feeney $1,024,158
- Round 2 draft pick (60) $857,616
- DT Justin Jones $835,016
- S Rayshawn Jenkins $810,552
- DT T.Y. McGill $805,000
- FB Derek Watt $752,422
- WR Geremy Davis $735,000
- OLB Kyzir White $733,610
- DE Anthony Lanier $720,000
- CB Desmond King $714,998
- Round 3 draft pick (91) $712,607
- S Jaylen Watkins $705,000 - note that he reportedly signed a 1 year, $895K contract, but both Spotrac and Over the Cap show his cap hit as $705K... not sure why
- T Sam Tevi $685,447
- Round 4 draft pick (130) $658,454
- TE Sean Culkin $649,000
- RB Austin Ekeler $646,668
- CB Michael Davis $645,000
- G Spencer Drango $645,000
- QB Cardale Jones $645,000
- WR Vince Mayle $645,000
- RB Troymaine Pope $645,000
- DL Isaac Rochell $645,000
- C Scott Quessenberry $641,063
- CB Brandon Facyson $573,333
- K Michael Badgley $570,000
- WR Dylan Cantrell $570,000
- RB Justin Jackson $570,000
- OLB Tre'Von Johnson $570,000
- RB Detrez Newsome $570,000
- CB Jeff Richards $570,000
- G Trenton Scott $570,000
- LB Kyle Wilson $570,000
- Round 5 draft pick (166) $564,128
- Round 6 draft pick (200) $533,942
- Round 7 draft pick (242) $514,431
- T Zachary Crabtree $500,000
- DE Patrick Afriyie $495,000
- WR Justice Liggins $495,000
- P Ty Long $495,000
- WR Andre Patton $495,000
- TE Austin Roberts $495,000
- WR Artavis Scott $495,000
- S Arrion Springs $495,000
That is 69 players for 53 roster spots, without accounting for additional free agents. That means at least 16 players on the list above will not make the final roster. I assume these players will not make it:
- Nick Dzubnar - cap casualty
- Spencer Drango - not good enough
- Cardale Jones - not good enough, pushed out by Tyrod
- Vince Mayle - not good enough
- Troymaine Pope - not good enough
- Tre'Von Johnson - not good enough
- Detrez Newsome - assuming the team only keeps 3 RBs, he is #4
- Jeff Richards - assuming the team only keeps 5 CBs, he is #6
- Trenton Scott - not good enough
- Kyle Wilson - not good enough
- Zachary Crabtree - not good enough
- Patrick Afriyie - not good enough
- Justice Liggins - not good enough
- Andre Patton - not good enough
- Austin Roberts - not good enough
- Arrion Springs - not good enough
That leaves this 53:
- QB Philip Rivers $23,000,000
- OLB Melvin Ingram $19,625,000
- LT Russell Okung $15,968,750
- WR Keenan Allen $12,150,000
- CB Casey Hayward $10,000,000
- C Mike Pouncey $9,250,000
- DE Joey Bosa $8,232,538
- WR Travis Benjamin $6,500,000
- RB Melvin Gordon $5,605,000
- WR Mike Williams $5,386,344
- G Michael Schofield $4,500,000
- DT Brandon Mebane $4,300,000
- QB Tyrod Taylor $3,500,000
- MLB Denzel Perryman $3,475,000
- TE Virgil Green $3,300,000
- OLB Thomas Davis $3,250,000
- S Derwin James $2,815,671
- ILB Jatavis Brown $2,071,097
- Round 1 draft pick (28) $2,064,769
- TE Hunter Henry $2,030,100
- CB Trevor Williams $2,025,000
- S Adrian Phillips $2,000,000
- G Forrest Lamp $1,818,251
- LB Uchenna Nwosu $1,308,994
- LS Mike Windt $1,085,000
- G Dan Feeney $1,024,158
- Round 2 draft pick (60) $857,616
- DT Justin Jones $835,016
- S Rayshawn Jenkins $810,552
- DT T.Y. McGill $805,000
- FB Derek Watt $752,422
- WR Geremy Davis $735,000
- OLB Kyzir White $733,610
- DE Anthony Lanier $720,000
- CB Desmond King $714,998
- Round 3 draft pick (91) $712,607
- S Jaylen Watkins $705,000 - note that he reportedly signed a 1 year, $895K contract, but both Spotrac and Over the Cap show his cap hit as $705K... not sure why
- T Sam Tevi $685,447
- Round 4 draft pick (130) $658,454
- TE Sean Culkin $649,000
- RB Austin Ekeler $646,668
- CB Michael Davis $645,000
- DL Isaac Rochell $645,000
- C Scott Quessenberry $641,063
- CB Brandon Facyson $573,333
- K Michael Badgley $570,000
- WR Dylan Cantrell $570,000
- RB Justin Jackson $570,000
- Round 5 draft pick (166) $564,128
- Round 6 draft pick (200) $533,942
- Round 7 draft pick (242) $514,431
- P Ty Long $495,000
- WR Artavis Scott $495,000
So let's examine the 2019 salary cap.
- The NFL cap for 2019 is $188.2M. The team carries over $1,016,504 from 2018.
- Spotrac shows a negative adjustment for $1,850,000. I don't know what that is for.
- The total cap hit for that 53 man roster above is $174,123,959.
- The team is currently carrying $4,231,085 in dead cap money for 2019. Releasing Dzubnar adds $397,500 in 2019 dead cap money.
- The team will extend Rivers' contract this offseason, but I am going to assume that his cap figure remains the same.
That leaves $8,613,960 of the 2019 cap unaccounted for. Telesco will reserve some of that for IR and the practice squad. I'm not sure what to estimate for that, but I will assume $3,113,960 to leave a nice round number of $5.5M remaining for signing additional free agents.
That 53 man roster above includes 7 draft picks and 46 players. Here are the positions represented by those players:
- QB (2) - Rivers, Taylor
- RB (3) - Gordon, Ekeler, Jackson
- FB (1) - Watt
- WR (6) - Allen, Williams, Benjamin, Davis, Cantrell, Scott
- TE (3) - Henry, Green, Culkin
- T (2) - Okung, Tevi
- G (3) - Schofield, Feeney, Lamp
- C (2) - Pouncey, Quessenberry
- DT (3) - Mebane, Jones, McGill
- Edge (4) - Bosa, Ingram, Rochell, Lanier
- LB (5) - Davis, Perryman, White, Brown, Nwosu
- CB (5) - Hayward, King, Williams, Davis, Facyson
- S (4) - James, Phillips, Jenkins, Watkins
- PK (1) - Badgley
- P (1) - Long
- LS (1) - Windt
Looking at this roster, here is my take on what the needs are, in order of importance:
- DT - need at least a 5 man DT rotation, and only have 3 under contract; hard to count on Jones and/or McGill being higher than 4-5 in that rotation based on their play last season, so need 2 better DTs. Could the team be planning to use Rochell at DT rather than on the edge? I could see the team re-signing Liuget if he can pass a physical. He would immediately be the best DT on this roster, at least until/unless the team drafts a DT in the first round.
- Starting RT - pushing Tevi to backup swing tackle.
- Starting FS - I am not willing to assume that Phillips, Jenkins, or Watkins are good enough to be an effective starter. But I am afraid the team may move forward with this group.
- Another G - ideally a starter, but at minimum a player good enough to compete with Schofield, Feeney, and Lamp for the 2 starting spots, with the other 2 providing depth.
- WR3 - if the team chooses to release Benjamin to save cap space, I think WR3 becomes a need... but I now think the team intends to keep Benjamin, and it is conceivable they could extend and restructure his contract to lower his 2019 cap number.
The team could still re-sign Gates, which would probably mean they would be limited to 1 more free agent at most, unless they release Benjamin.
Though I am not a fan of the Perryman signing, I am a fan of the Davis signing, and the combination of the two should take LB off the Chargers draft board barring a huge value falling to them... which is good, since it cuts the needs list to something more manageable. Even so, IMO solving those needs above solely through the draft is not likely to happen.
I like to see 24 players on offense and 26 on defense.
- If the team does add 1 RT and 1 G, that would make 24 on offense.
- If the team does add 2 IDL and 1 FS, that would make 24 on defense, so there would be 2 wild cards. I would like to see a 6th DT, particularly since they are counting on 34 year old Mebane as their 2nd or 3rd DT in a 5 man rotation. Not sure on the other... 6th CB?
Speaking of CBs, it is interesting to note that the Chargers only drafted 1 of the CBs on the roster above, and 3 (Williams, Davis, and Facyson) were UDFAs. So that makes me think Telesco will not prioritize CB early in the draft. The only time he did that (Verrett), it didn't work out well.
Of course, I only projected 5 more additions here, and there are 7 draft picks and perhaps ~$5.5M in cap room for free agents. So there will be 3+ more players added, which will likely push some others off the roster. I would say these players are the most at risk:
- WR Dylan Cantrell - numbers game at WR if Benjamin sticks and the team only carries 5 WRs
- WR Artavis Scott - numbers game at WR if Benjamin sticks and the team only carries 5 WRs
- TE Sean Culkin - if Gates re-signed
- DE Anthony Lanier - if better DE added
- CB Brandon Facyson - if better #5 CB added
- P Ty Long - if beaten out by another punterI hope he is the guy, because not only can he handle the punter role, he can also handle kickoffs, which is a weak point for Badgley... but Long wasn't good enough to make the NFL without first spending time in the CFL
My reaction to the free agent signings so far:
- S Watkins - like it, although I am afraid the team may be counting on him to start at FS; if so, I hope they have good reason for that confidence
- LB Perryman - don't like it primarily because he has been unable to stay healthy; if he can do that, it will be good value for this season and then time to restructure/extend or release him to avoid his much higher cap hit in 2020
- LB Davis - like it; he is old but played really well last season and has only missed a few games to injury over the past several seasons; assuming he will play SAM/OTTO, he is a big upgrade on Emanuel, although that does relegate last year's 2nd round pick to a backup role
- QB Taylor - don't like the cap hit, especially in 2020; but he is a big upgrade at backup QB and could actually win games if Rivers missed time due to injury; overall, I don't like it
- DT Mebane - don't like it; he is old for a DT and hasn't played more than 576 snaps in a season since 2013, yet they are paying him like a starter
- S Phillips - expected it and like that it is for just one year and $2M
Thoughts?