Hurts Notes from Cowboys
Alright, so last night I watched the All 22 of the Cowboys game and I have some thoughts on Hurts. It’s going to be bad, and not saying this as a Wentz apologist because he thoroughly deserved to be benched this year and I believe his problems are mostly of his own making.
Here we go, his arm strength is average to a touch below. Watch a Wentz highlight package from 2018/2019 and you’ll regularly see throws Hurts can’t physically make.
An example is the throw he missed to Reagor on a post route for a TD. Play design here did a great job of influencing the middle safety to open his hips and move away from Reagor, who did a nice job bursting out of his break and getting a couple yards of separation. The S still had time to turn and close to the point of almost being able to make a play. I initially thought he’d been late on the read, but he threw this on time from a clean pocket. Just didn’t have enough juice on it, then the ball was high anyway. He also missed Reagor on a similar route for a TD vs. the Cardinals.
There are a few throws that really show a QBs arm strength and it’s not the bomb throws like the Jackson TD, those can have air under them and are easier to make. Deep outs, deep comebacks, intermediate window throws over the middle in zone, and skinny post throws against a single high S are the throws to look at if you want to see if a QB can rip the ball, Hurts doesn’t have the arm to consistently make those throws, IMO.
His accuracy was off all game too, like the throw above, he sailed a ball to a wide open Sanders on one play, and several other plays where the ball is low or behind players who were open.
I still think his field vision, ability to read through progressions is poor. He missed seeing open players numerous times. On the 4th and 15 play, Boston Scott was wide open on the left sideline with one player to beat for a 1st down. He throws to Ertz instead. Missed a wide open Jeffrey on a short 3rd down. Missed seeing Greg Ward wide open on a deep dig on a play where he ran instead. Missed, or didn’t want to throw to a wide open Sanders running parallel with Hurts while he scrambled left. Sanders eventually gave up on being a target and blocked somebody while Hurts ran. Threw behind Reagor on a short crosser.
The only throws he consistently makes with anticipation are out breaking routes to the sideline and the fade / go routes vs. man. Outside those, he is a “see it, throw it” QB. He is consistently late throwing to open players, reducing YAC opportunities.
As far as his future prospects go, the only path for someone with his arm talent to become a top tier QB is to have elite accuracy and ability to read the field. Hurts is nowhere near the mark on both of those points. Sure, he’s a rookie and can improve, but the leap required to get there from where he is is so great, the chances of that happening are tiny.
Thinking about ranking QBs, I kind of use 3 tiers. I like the Daniel Jeremiah “trucks and trailers” comparison. A truck is a guy who pulls the team forwards, a trailer is a guy who needs the team around him to pull him forwards.
So, the top tier are the trucks, guys who make other players better. The middle tier are the guys who are “fine” but need great surrounding talent and coaching. Your Kirk Cousins, Jimmy G types. The last tier are the guys you know you have to replace. Nick Foles, Tyrod Taylor etc.
I think Hurts absolute ceiling is the second tier, and most likely outcome is bottom tier. I believe if he starts next season, he will be a bottom tier QB.
What really shows the future prospects here are the quarter by quarter and 1st / 2nd half splits on
Pro Football Reference
There’s a consistent pattern of Hurts starting out with solid play, and deteriorating the longer the game goes. Almost like DCs can say “OK, I see what we’re dealing with”, adjust and his performance deteriorates the longer the game goes on.
All this reads to me like a backup QB. It’s asinine that they picked him in the middle of the 2nd round, given the state of this roster and now they have a huge ####### mess on their hands.