What to do next year?
Since it will all happen one way or another after the game tomorrow night, here’s what I think should happen.
I’m starting with some an assumptions, that the best path to sustained success is a top tier QB. I believe this is harder to find than a top tier coach, due to the scarcity and access to QBs at the top of the draft. If you can pick the right coach, all you have to do is convince them (with money, authority or whatever) to take the job. Doesn’t matter how many teams want Trevor Lawrence, only 1 has the chance to take him.
Lurie needs to have already had a meeting with Wentz for his thoughts on what happened this year. What Carson says in there, determines what I’d do next. If he shows humility and accountability and has a plan to work on the issues with his play and his failures this year, then I would plan to move forwards with him. Wentz has a 3yr track record of being a top tier QB who can make those around him better. I don’t believe Hurts has that ceiling so if Wentz can get back there, that’s the way to go. This is Path 1
If Wentz puts the blame on injuries, coaching, other players etc., that would show me he hasn’t internalised the lessons from this year, and chances of his play improving are not high enough to continue. This is Path 2
Both paths start with firing Howie. I don’t see any way you can look the current state of this roster and salary cap, as well as his draft track record, and say that he should continue to be making decisions for the team. I believe it also means he has to be out of the organisation completely, IMO. He’s such a politician that he’d be in the background undermining whoever replaced him on the personnel side. I think it would be more difficult to attract top coaching candidates if the person who made the mess they’re in now is still making decisions. Bringing in people under Howie (like the transparent John Dorsey PR move) doesn’t work. Joe Douglas didn’t make much difference with the Eagles, but is doing much better on his own with the Jets.
Path 1
Fire Doug (and Press Taylor). There are things Doug is good at, there are things he needs to improve but ultimately the Pederson / Taylor coaching arrangement has seen Wentz decline from an MVP front runner to the worst starting QB in the league. If Wentz is going to bounce back, it has to be with better coaching from different coaches.
Path 2
Trade Wentz. Might take a slight contract restructure to shift the date of his 2022 guarantee. Not sure what the return is but if it’s a 2 and another conditional pick, you just have to go with it and move forwards.
If possible draft the replacement QB early. Lawrence won’t be there so you’ll likely be picking between Wilson / Fields (depending on the Jets) and Trey Lance. It’s also possible someone trades above the Eagles. I wouldn’t give up much to trade up, since it will take multiple years I think before this team is out of the hole it’s in.
If the replacement doesn’t come through the draft, I’d look at veteran options to compete with Hurts (Sam Darnold, maybe) to at least shoot for competent QB play.
I’m less fussed in this path if Doug has another year or gets fired immediately. Given the record with / without Wentz we’ve all seen, something just doesn’t work in that dynamic so I’m willing to give Doug a shot to work with a new QB, but also, he has to improve his management of assistant coaches, and the overall culture of accountability.
if Reagor ends up playing slot because we draft Smith. You know, since we couldn’t draft a guy who’s “just a slot WR” last year.
