Official 2022 college football thread: its conference realignment season. (1 Viewer)

[Capella]

What the heck is the top 4 now?

1. Georgia
2. tOSU
3. Michigan?
4. TCU?

I think if Alabama had won, they may have only dropped Tennessee to the 4 hole, but now I think they got to fall further. Undefeated Michigan is a lock not a question in my mind. This sets up the showdown with Ohio State Thanksgiving weekend. TCU makes sense in the last spot being undefeated with several wins over ranked opponents, but I do not expect it to last. I think they stumble against Texas next week which may open the door for a 1 loss Oregon team after they beat Utah next week.

Oregon plays Washington next week. Then Utah, Oregon State and likely either USC or UCLA. If they run the table they are in the playoff. Crazy to say that after getting clobbered by Georgia the first week.

It is. Weird to think they could make it after that game but they do deserve credit for stepping up and playing a team like Georgia. They could have played and beat a mid-level program like, I dunno, Florida or Miami, you know the kind of programs who haven’t won anything since HDTV became a thing, but they challenged themselves and deserve credit for it.

 

[Penguin]

Right now I think it's...
Georgia
Ohio State (Has to play Michigan)
Michigan (Has to play Ohio State)
TCU
Oregon

I could see the playoffs being Georgia, Big Ten Champ, TCU & Oregon if both TCU and Oregon run the table. I'm much more confident in Oregon doing that than I am TCU. I think if Oregon loses then the next two suitors are USC & UCLA if either wins out. Two loss Alabama seems out. Probably the Ohio State-Michigan loser has a shot.

 

[[icon]]

Right now I think it's...
Georgia
Ohio State (Has to play Michigan)
Michigan (Has to play Ohio State)
TCU
Oregon

I could see the playoffs being Georgia, Big Ten Champ, TCU & Oregon if both TCU and Oregon run the table. I'm much more confident in Oregon doing that than I am TCU. I think if Oregon loses then the next two suitors are USC & UCLA if either wins out. Two loss Alabama seems out. Probably the Ohio State-Michigan loser has a shot.

Why on earth would you have one loss Oregon over one loss Tennessee when:

1) Tennessee has more quality wins (LSU + Bama vs UCLA)
2) Both lost to Georgia in Athens, Oregon lost by 46, Tennessee by 14.

Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
TCU
Tennessee
Oregon

Honestly I'd move Michigan over Ohio State personally given OSU legitimately struggled against 1 win northwestern despite what the final score says... but that's not happening.

I'd also look hard at where TCU was given they yet again required a late rally to beat a weak opponent. If I was being serious about wanting to rank the teams, I'd have them #6 behind UT and Oregon.

I mean... who have they beat? 3-loss Kansas State that just lost to Texas at home? Then....Nobody.

What halfway decent team has TCU looked dominant against? Nobody. They've needed late rallies to squeak by against a bunch of middling to crappy teams. Tennessee dominated a solid Kentucky team and a Top 10 LSU squad in Baton Rouge.

Not to mention Playoff Comittee has already shown a willingness to put a strong one loss SEC team above them.

If I was being serious about the rankings it would be:

Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
Tennessee
TCU
Oregon
LSU? (it's not crazy...they have more quality wins than USC Clemson or Bama)

 

[gump]

is Nick Saban finished? has the game passed him by? can Bama win with him at the helm next year?

is Brian Kelly the coach of the year? is LSU a lock for the natty?????

I know you are joking, but this is the worst coached team at Bama under Saban. If he doesn't 'fire' tweedle dee and tweedle dum, expect the real wind down of his career to start.

 

[gump]

Matt Rhule to Nebraska it appears.

 

[belljr]

ND should be ranked 4 right!?!!#!#!

 

[Uruk-Hai]

ND should be ranked 4 right!?!!#!#!

Why? Did they lose?

 

[psychobillies]

LSU/Notre Dame bowl game might be interesting. Maybe it would give the ND fans the closure they need.

 

[mr. furley]

LSU/Notre Dame bowl game might be interesting. Maybe it would give the ND fans the closure they need.

this would rend @Jayded in two

 

[Jayded]

LSU/Notre Dame bowl game might be interesting. Maybe it would give the ND fans the closure they need.

this would rend @Jayded in two

Ha. I honestly don’t dislike LSU. My boss, my son’s godfather, and many other friends are all big LSU fans so they’ve always been a secondary team I follow and root for.

I just dislike BK. It’s the perfectly imperfect situation for me as I think he’s a tool. He went from being the tool for my team to a tool for a secondary team, just now I have to hear about him like some weird update about an ex.

 

[[icon]]

Coaches Poll out:
1 UGA
2 OSU
3 MICH
4 TCU
5 TENN
6 ORE
7 USC
8 LSU
9 MISS
10 UCLA
11 BAMA
12 CLEM

 

[Capella]

4 TCU
5 TENN

Oh come on..

 

[[icon]]

538 Probabilities after Week 10

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Some notes:
- Georgia a coin flip to win out, but it won't stop them from making playoffs (83%) as it shouldn't. The favorite to win it all (33%)
- Michigan expected to lose at least one more (26% to win out), but retain good odds of playoffs (43%)
- Tennessee most likely to win out (70%) and 4th most likely to make playoffs (37%) but very low chance of a title (7%)
- TCU Expected to lose next week (60%) and unlikely to win out (10%)
- Clempson 42% to win out, but less likely to make playoffs (33%)
- Oregon expected to lose at least one more (20% to win out) and 22% chance of playoffs.

 

[Tom Servo]

lol @ announcers talking up Penn St and praising them for continuing to play hard in a rout of Indiana and crediting the coaching staff...This is "the program they have become". Yes...Yes it has.

Yeah, I wasn't buying the smoke being blown up my arse by those guys.

 

[AAABatteries]

lol @ announcers talking up Penn St and praising them for continuing to play hard in a rout of Indiana and crediting the coaching staff...This is "the program they have become". Yes...Yes it has.

Yeah, I wasn't buying the smoke being blown up my arse by those guys.

I wouldn’t pay for that either .

 

[Schmeabs]

Right now I think it's...
Georgia
Ohio State (Has to play Michigan)
Michigan (Has to play Ohio State)
TCU
Oregon

I could see the playoffs being Georgia, Big Ten Champ, TCU & Oregon if both TCU and Oregon run the table. I'm much more confident in Oregon doing that than I am TCU. I think if Oregon loses then the next two suitors are USC & UCLA if either wins out. Two loss Alabama seems out. Probably the Ohio State-Michigan loser has a shot.

Why on earth would you have one loss Oregon over one loss Tennessee when:

1) Tennessee has more quality wins (LSU + Bama vs UCLA)
2) Both lost to Georgia in Athens, Oregon lost by 46, Tennessee by 14.

Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
TCU
Tennessee
Oregon

Honestly I'd move Michigan over Ohio State personally given OSU legitimately struggled against 1 win northwestern despite what the final score says... but that's not happening.

I'd also look hard at where TCU was given they yet again required a late rally to beat a weak opponent. If I was being serious about wanting to rank the teams, I'd have them #6 behind UT and Oregon.

I mean... who have they beat? 3-loss Kansas State that just lost to Texas at home? Then....Nobody.

What halfway decent team has TCU looked dominant against? Nobody. They've needed late rallies to squeak by against a bunch of middling to crappy teams. Tennessee dominated a solid Kentucky team and a Top 10 LSU squad in Baton Rouge.

Not to mention Playoff Comittee has already shown a willingness to put a strong one loss SEC team above them.

If I was being serious about the rankings it would be:

Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
Tennessee
TCU
Oregon
LSU? (it's not crazy...they have more quality wins than USC Clemson or Bama)

I think you are right as of today. However, Oregon may play 4 straight ranked teams to end the year and if they win all 4 and are Pac 12 champs they are surely in over Tenn and loser of OSU/Michigan.

 

[facook]

LSU/Notre Dame bowl game might be interesting. Maybe it would give the ND fans the closure they need.

this would rend @Jayded in two

Can you imagine how corrupt the refs in THAT game would be?

 

[facook]

Right now I think it's...
Georgia
Ohio State (Has to play Michigan)
Michigan (Has to play Ohio State)
TCU
Oregon

I could see the playoffs being Georgia, Big Ten Champ, TCU & Oregon if both TCU and Oregon run the table. I'm much more confident in Oregon doing that than I am TCU. I think if Oregon loses then the next two suitors are USC & UCLA if either wins out. Two loss Alabama seems out. Probably the Ohio State-Michigan loser has a shot.

Why on earth would you have one loss Oregon over one loss Tennessee when:

1) Tennessee has more quality wins (LSU + Bama vs UCLA)
2) Both lost to Georgia in Athens, Oregon lost by 46, Tennessee by 14.

Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
TCU
Tennessee
Oregon

Honestly I'd move Michigan over Ohio State personally given OSU legitimately struggled against 1 win northwestern despite what the final score says... but that's not happening.

I'd also look hard at where TCU was given they yet again required a late rally to beat a weak opponent. If I was being serious about wanting to rank the teams, I'd have them #6 behind UT and Oregon.

I mean... who have they beat? 3-loss Kansas State that just lost to Texas at home? Then....Nobody.

What halfway decent team has TCU looked dominant against? Nobody. They've needed late rallies to squeak by against a bunch of middling to crappy teams. Tennessee dominated a solid Kentucky team and a Top 10 LSU squad in Baton Rouge.

Not to mention Playoff Comittee has already shown a willingness to put a strong one loss SEC team above them.

If I was being serious about the rankings it would be:

Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
Tennessee
TCU
Oregon
LSU? (it's not crazy...they have more quality wins than USC Clemson or Bama)

I think you are right as of today. However, Oregon may play 4 straight ranked teams to end the year and if they win all 4 and are Pac 12 champs they are surely in over Tenn and loser of OSU/Michigan.

I agree Ducks would deserve it. And it probably makes me a bad fan, but I have a hard time believing Oregon would do any better against UGA the second time than Tenn did yesterday. Not sure I even want to see it, though I should.

 

[facook]

Right now I think it's...
Georgia
Ohio State (Has to play Michigan)
Michigan (Has to play Ohio State)
TCU
Oregon

I could see the playoffs being Georgia, Big Ten Champ, TCU & Oregon if both TCU and Oregon run the table. I'm much more confident in Oregon doing that than I am TCU. I think if Oregon loses then the next two suitors are USC & UCLA if either wins out. Two loss Alabama seems out. Probably the Ohio State-Michigan loser has a shot.

Why on earth would you have one loss Oregon over one loss Tennessee when:

1) Tennessee has more quality wins (LSU + Bama vs UCLA)
2) Both lost to Georgia in Athens, Oregon lost by 46, Tennessee by 14.

Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
TCU
Tennessee
Oregon

Honestly I'd move Michigan over Ohio State personally given OSU legitimately struggled against 1 win northwestern despite what the final score says... but that's not happening.

I'd also look hard at where TCU was given they yet again required a late rally to beat a weak opponent. If I was being serious about wanting to rank the teams, I'd have them #6 behind UT and Oregon.

I mean... who have they beat? 3-loss Kansas State that just lost to Texas at home? Then....Nobody.

What halfway decent team has TCU looked dominant against? Nobody. They've needed late rallies to squeak by against a bunch of middling to crappy teams. Tennessee dominated a solid Kentucky team and a Top 10 LSU squad in Baton Rouge.

Not to mention Playoff Comittee has already shown a willingness to put a strong one loss SEC team above them.

If I was being serious about the rankings it would be:

Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
Tennessee
TCU
Oregon
LSU? (it's not crazy...they have more quality wins than USC Clemson or Bama)

Ducks homer, and I agree with you. Tennessee should be ranked over Oregon (and I'd be shocked if they aren't on Tuesday).

 

[[icon]]

Right now I think it's...
Georgia
Ohio State (Has to play Michigan)
Michigan (Has to play Ohio State)
TCU
Oregon

I could see the playoffs being Georgia, Big Ten Champ, TCU & Oregon if both TCU and Oregon run the table. I'm much more confident in Oregon doing that than I am TCU. I think if Oregon loses then the next two suitors are USC & UCLA if either wins out. Two loss Alabama seems out. Probably the Ohio State-Michigan loser has a shot.

Why on earth would you have one loss Oregon over one loss Tennessee when:

1) Tennessee has more quality wins (LSU + Bama vs UCLA)
2) Both lost to Georgia in Athens, Oregon lost by 46, Tennessee by 14.

Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
TCU
Tennessee
Oregon

Honestly I'd move Michigan over Ohio State personally given OSU legitimately struggled against 1 win northwestern despite what the final score says... but that's not happening.

I'd also look hard at where TCU was given they yet again required a late rally to beat a weak opponent. If I was being serious about wanting to rank the teams, I'd have them #6 behind UT and Oregon.

I mean... who have they beat? 3-loss Kansas State that just lost to Texas at home? Then....Nobody.

What halfway decent team has TCU looked dominant against? Nobody. They've needed late rallies to squeak by against a bunch of middling to crappy teams. Tennessee dominated a solid Kentucky team and a Top 10 LSU squad in Baton Rouge.

Not to mention Playoff Comittee has already shown a willingness to put a strong one loss SEC team above them.

If I was being serious about the rankings it would be:

Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
Tennessee
TCU
Oregon
LSU? (it's not crazy...they have more quality wins than USC Clemson or Bama)

I think you are right as of today. However, Oregon may play 4 straight ranked teams to end the year and if they win all 4 and are Pac 12 champs they are surely in over Tenn and loser of OSU/Michigan.

Per 538:
Oregon has a 20% chance of winning out, however if they do, they are nearly 90% likely to make the playoffs.

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ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

It's not gospel but they're pretty good at this stuff.

 

[mr. furley]

LSU/Notre Dame bowl game might be interesting. Maybe it would give the ND fans the closure they need.

this would rend @Jayded in two

Can you imagine how corrupt the refs in THAT game would be?

putting thumbs on both sides of the scale until the whole works just blows up like Vesuvius

 

[Moe.]

Coaches Poll out:
1 UGA
2 OSU
3 MICH
4 TCU
5 TENN
6 ORE
7 USC
8 LSU

This feels like the pecking order going forward. Difficult to see anyone else getting in.

 

[Moe.]

I’m of the opinion UGA, OSU/Michigan, TCU, and USC/Oregon control their own destiny.

 

[Jayded]

By the way for those keeping record of Notre Dame must join a conference, after the win this past weekend that marks 27 regular season wins in a row against the ACC. Not nothing, but just saying that’s also a bit of a surprise.

 

[Schmeabs]

I’m of the opinion UGA, OSU/Michigan, TCU, and USC/Oregon control their own destiny.

UCLA too.

 

[facook]

By the way for those keeping record of Notre Dame must join a conference, after the win this past weekend that marks 27 regular season wins in a row against the ACC. Not nothing, but just saying that’s also a bit of a surprise.

That seems like an impossible number when the conference obviously pays their refs to screw the Irish each and every game.

 

[Jayded]

By the way for those keeping record of Notre Dame must join a conference, after the win this past weekend that marks 27 regular season wins in a row against the ACC. Not nothing, but just saying that’s also a bit of a surprise.

That seems like an impossible number when the conference obviously pays their refs to screw the Irish each and every game.

Fun fact - every ND home game is officiated by the opponent’s conference officials. All of them. SC brings PAC 12 refs, Texas brought Big 12, etc.

This week the booth pointed it out it was so bad. Even the ref in the booth chimed in that they blew it a few times in a row and those guys never talk bad about other refs that blatantly.

 

[Zeppelin]

By the way for those keeping record of Notre Dame must join a conference, after the win this past weekend that marks 27 regular season wins in a row against the ACC. Not nothing, but just saying that’s also a bit of a surprise.

That seems like an impossible number when the conference obviously pays their refs to screw the Irish each and every game.

Fun fact - every ND home game is officiated by the opponent’s conference officials. All of them. SC brings PAC 12 refs, Texas brought Big 12, etc.

This week the booth pointed it out it was so bad. Even the ref in the booth chimed in that they blew it a few times in a row and those guys never talk bad about other refs that blatantly.

Maybe they should join a conference.

 

[psychobillies]

Earthquake game

 

[[icon]]

I’m of the opinion UGA, OSU/Michigan, TCU, and USC/Oregon control their own destiny.

UCLA too.

Odds of making playoff if they win out (in a vacuum):

TCU: +99% (11% chance of winning out)
Oregon: 88% (19%)
LSU: 85% (13%)
USC: 82% (15%)
UCLA: 58% (16%)
Tennessee: 57% (68%)

 

[gump]

I’m of the opinion UGA, OSU/Michigan, TCU, and USC/Oregon control their own destiny.

UCLA too.

Odds of making playoff if they win out (in a vacuum):

TCU: +99% (11% chance of winning out)
Oregon: 88% (19%)
LSU: 85% (13%)
USC: 82% (15%)
UCLA: 58% (16%)
Tennessee: 57% (68%)

Wow the difference between Oregon and UTenn is surprising.

 

[facook]

By the way for those keeping record of Notre Dame must join a conference, after the win this past weekend that marks 27 regular season wins in a row against the ACC. Not nothing, but just saying that’s also a bit of a surprise.

That seems like an impossible number when the conference obviously pays their refs to screw the Irish each and every game.

Fun fact - every ND home game is officiated by the opponent’s conference officials. All of them. SC brings PAC 12 refs, Texas brought Big 12, etc.

This week the booth pointed it out it was so bad. Even the ref in the booth chimed in that they blew it a few times in a row and those guys never talk bad about other refs that blatantly.

Refs are often very bad. Sometimes horrible. That doesn't mean they are out to screw your favorite team.

 

[[icon]]

I’m of the opinion UGA, OSU/Michigan, TCU, and USC/Oregon control their own destiny.

UCLA too.

Odds of making playoff if they win out (in a vacuum):

TCU: +99% (11% chance of winning out)
Oregon: 88% (19%)
LSU: 85% (13%)
USC: 82% (15%)
UCLA: 58% (16%)
Tennessee: 57% (68%)

Wow the difference between Oregon and UTenn is surprising.

Guessing it's largely due to strength of remaining schedule and thus the very unlikely odds they win out. I'm not all that worried about them getting in ahead of us... one loss and they're toast.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Longest current home winning streaks:

1. Clemson 38
2. Cincinnati 31
3. Oregon 23
4. Alabama 18
5. Georgia 17
6. NC State 16
7. Ole Miss 14
8. Michigan 13
9. Oklahoma State 13
10. Utah 13
11. Ohio State 12

 

[Tom Servo]

By the way for those keeping record of Notre Dame must join a conference, after the win this past weekend that marks 27 regular season wins in a row against the ACC. Not nothing, but just saying that’s also a bit of a surprise.

That seems like an impossible number when the conference obviously pays their refs to screw the Irish each and every game.

Fun fact - every ND home game is officiated by the opponent’s conference officials. All of them. SC brings PAC 12 refs, Texas brought Big 12, etc.

This week the booth pointed it out it was so bad. Even the ref in the booth chimed in that they blew it a few times in a row and those guys never talk bad about other refs that blatantly.

That’s pretty much the process everywhere, I believe.

 

[Schmeabs]

I’m of the opinion UGA, OSU/Michigan, TCU, and USC/Oregon control their own destiny.

UCLA too.

Odds of making playoff if they win out (in a vacuum):

TCU: +99% (11% chance of winning out)
Oregon: 88% (19%)
LSU: 85% (13%)
USC: 82% (15%)
UCLA: 58% (16%)
Tennessee: 57% (68%)

Wow the difference between Oregon and UTenn is surprising.

Guessing it's largely due to strength of remaining schedule and thus the very unlikely odds they win out. I'm not all that worried about them getting in ahead of us... one loss and they're toast.

Us? Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

I actually think Tennessee has a very good chance to make the playoffs, likely a rematch with Georgia in the first round.

 

[Galileo]

<--- Wishing for TCU and tOSU to both win out and face each other in the playoffs. This is a tall order, especially for TCU. But if it happens, I'm making the trip to either the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl to watch my alma mater vs my "home" team.

 

[[icon]]

Us? Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

Let's take a look at resumes:

OREGON: Currently #6 (19% to win out)

LOSS: #1 Georgia (by 46pts - Blowout)

RANKED WINS:
#12 UCLA (by 15pts)
#13 UTAH (Hasn't Happened)
#25 WASHINGTON (Hasn't Happened)

============

USC: Currently #8 (16% to win out)

LOSS: #13 UTAH (by 1pt)

RANKED WINS:
#6 OREGON (Hasn't Happened)
#12 UCLA (Hasn't happened)
#20 NOTRE DAM (Hasn't Happened)

============

UCLA: Currently #12 (15% to win out)

LOSS: #6 OREGON (by 15pts)

RANKED WINS:
#6 OREGON (Hasn't Happened)
#8 USC (Hasn't Happened)
#13 UTAH (by 10pts)
#24 WASHINGTON (by 8pts)

============

TENNESSEE: Currently #5 (69% to win out)

LOSS: #1 GEORGIA (by 14pts)

RANKED WINS:
#7 LSU (by 27pts - Blowout)
#9 ALABAMA (by 3pts)
#24 KENTUCKY (by 38pts - Blowout)

Tennessee's got a higher starting point in the rankings, A more dominant win resume, a loss to a significantly stronger opponent... and they've actually got all that in the books vs hypothetical.

538 ODDS OF PLAYOFFS if they win out (in a vaccuum):
Oregon: 90%
USC: 78%
Tennessee: 56%
UCLA: 50%

 

[Schmeabs]

Us? Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

Let's take a look at resumes:

OREGON: Currently #6 (19% to win out)

LOSS: #1 Georgia (by 46pts - Blowout)

RANKED WINS:
#12 UCLA (by 15pts)
#13 UTAH (Hasn't Happened)
#25 WASHINGTON (Hasn't Happened)

============

USC: Currently #8 (16% to win out)

LOSS: #13 UTAH (by 1pt)

RANKED WINS:
#6 OREGON (Hasn't Happened)
#12 UCLA (Hasn't happened)
#20 NOTRE DAM (Hasn't Happened)

============

UCLA: Currently #12 (15% to win out)

LOSS: #6 OREGON (by 15pts)

RANKED WINS:
#6 OREGON (Hasn't Happened)
#8 USC (Hasn't Happened)
#13 UTAH (by 10pts)
#24 WASHINGTON (by 8pts)

============

TENNESSEE: Currently #5 (69% to win out)

LOSS: #1 GEORGIA (by 14pts)

RANKED WINS:
#7 LSU (by 27pts - Blowout)
#9 ALABAMA (by 3pts)
#24 KENTUCKY (by 38pts - Blowout)

Tennessee's got a higher starting point in the rankings, A more dominant win resume, a loss to a significantly stronger opponent... and they've actually got all that in the books vs hypothetical.

538 ODDS OF PLAYOFFS if they win out (in a vaccuum):
Oregon: 90%
USC: 78%
Tennessee: 56%
UCLA: 50%

Both Oregon and Tennessee got blown out against Georgia. The rain in the second half made Georgia go more conservative and take their foot off the gas. Wash. Committee is ranking UCLA way too low imo.

Bottom line is committe has never not awarded a 1 loss power 5 conference champ a playoff berth so as long as that happens the Pac 12 champ is in.

 

[General Malaise]

Us? Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

Let's take a look at resumes:

OREGON: Currently #6 (19% to win out)

LOSS: #1 Georgia (by 46pts - Blowout)

RANKED WINS:
#12 UCLA (by 15pts)
#13 UTAH (Hasn't Happened)
#25 WASHINGTON (Hasn't Happened)

============

USC: Currently #8 (16% to win out)

LOSS: #13 UTAH (by 1pt)

RANKED WINS:
#6 OREGON (Hasn't Happened)
#12 UCLA (Hasn't happened)
#20 NOTRE DAM (Hasn't Happened)

============

UCLA: Currently #12 (15% to win out)

LOSS: #6 OREGON (by 15pts)

RANKED WINS:
#6 OREGON (Hasn't Happened)
#8 USC (Hasn't Happened)
#13 UTAH (by 10pts)
#24 WASHINGTON (by 8pts)

============

TENNESSEE: Currently #5 (69% to win out)

LOSS: #1 GEORGIA (by 14pts)

RANKED WINS:
#7 LSU (by 27pts - Blowout)
#9 ALABAMA (by 3pts)
#24 KENTUCKY (by 38pts - Blowout)

Tennessee's got a higher starting point in the rankings, A more dominant win resume, a loss to a significantly stronger opponent... and they've actually got all that in the books vs hypothetical.

538 ODDS OF PLAYOFFS if they win out (in a vaccuum):
Oregon: 90%
USC: 78%
Tennessee: 56%
UCLA: 50%

Both Oregon and Tennessee got blown out against Georgia. The rain in the second half made Georgia go more conservative and take their foot off the gas. Wash. Committee is ranking UCLA way too low imo.

Bottom line is committe has never not awarded a 1 loss power 5 conference champ a playoff berth so as long as that happens the Pac 12 champ is in.

You gonna be there Saturday? Should be perfect weather for the game. Wish the kick was a little earlier, but this game needs to be prime time on the east coast, imo.

 

[Schmeabs]

Us? Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

Let's take a look at resumes:

OREGON: Currently #6 (19% to win out)

LOSS: #1 Georgia (by 46pts - Blowout)

RANKED WINS:
#12 UCLA (by 15pts)
#13 UTAH (Hasn't Happened)
#25 WASHINGTON (Hasn't Happened)

============

USC: Currently #8 (16% to win out)

LOSS: #13 UTAH (by 1pt)

RANKED WINS:
#6 OREGON (Hasn't Happened)
#12 UCLA (Hasn't happened)
#20 NOTRE DAM (Hasn't Happened)

============

UCLA: Currently #12 (15% to win out)

LOSS: #6 OREGON (by 15pts)

RANKED WINS:
#6 OREGON (Hasn't Happened)
#8 USC (Hasn't Happened)
#13 UTAH (by 10pts)
#24 WASHINGTON (by 8pts)

============

TENNESSEE: Currently #5 (69% to win out)

LOSS: #1 GEORGIA (by 14pts)

RANKED WINS:
#7 LSU (by 27pts - Blowout)
#9 ALABAMA (by 3pts)
#24 KENTUCKY (by 38pts - Blowout)

Tennessee's got a higher starting point in the rankings, A more dominant win resume, a loss to a significantly stronger opponent... and they've actually got all that in the books vs hypothetical.

538 ODDS OF PLAYOFFS if they win out (in a vaccuum):
Oregon: 90%
USC: 78%
Tennessee: 56%
UCLA: 50%

Both Oregon and Tennessee got blown out against Georgia. The rain in the second half made Georgia go more conservative and take their foot off the gas. Wash. Committee is ranking UCLA way too low imo.

Bottom line is committe has never not awarded a 1 loss power 5 conference champ a playoff berth so as long as that happens the Pac 12 champ is in.

You gonna be there Saturday? Should be perfect weather for the game. Wish the kick was a little earlier, but this game needs to be prime time on the east coast, imo.

Yes I will be there this Saturday and also next Saturday against Utah. Are you coming down for the game?

 

[Capella]

Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

Lol, no that’s not going to happen. Have you all not paid any attention the last 10 years?

 

[Schmeabs]

Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

Lol, no that’s not going to happen. Have you all not paid any attention the last 10 years?

Yes, a 1 loss conference champion always gets in.

 

[General Malaise]

Us? Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

Let's take a look at resumes:

OREGON: Currently #6 (19% to win out)

LOSS: #1 Georgia (by 46pts - Blowout)

RANKED WINS:
#12 UCLA (by 15pts)
#13 UTAH (Hasn't Happened)
#25 WASHINGTON (Hasn't Happened)

============

USC: Currently #8 (16% to win out)

LOSS: #13 UTAH (by 1pt)

RANKED WINS:
#6 OREGON (Hasn't Happened)
#12 UCLA (Hasn't happened)
#20 NOTRE DAM (Hasn't Happened)

============

UCLA: Currently #12 (15% to win out)

LOSS: #6 OREGON (by 15pts)

RANKED WINS:
#6 OREGON (Hasn't Happened)
#8 USC (Hasn't Happened)
#13 UTAH (by 10pts)
#24 WASHINGTON (by 8pts)

============

TENNESSEE: Currently #5 (69% to win out)

LOSS: #1 GEORGIA (by 14pts)

RANKED WINS:
#7 LSU (by 27pts - Blowout)
#9 ALABAMA (by 3pts)
#24 KENTUCKY (by 38pts - Blowout)

Tennessee's got a higher starting point in the rankings, A more dominant win resume, a loss to a significantly stronger opponent... and they've actually got all that in the books vs hypothetical.

538 ODDS OF PLAYOFFS if they win out (in a vaccuum):
Oregon: 90%
USC: 78%
Tennessee: 56%
UCLA: 50%

Both Oregon and Tennessee got blown out against Georgia. The rain in the second half made Georgia go more conservative and take their foot off the gas. Wash. Committee is ranking UCLA way too low imo.

Bottom line is committe has never not awarded a 1 loss power 5 conference champ a playoff berth so as long as that happens the Pac 12 champ is in.

You gonna be there Saturday? Should be perfect weather for the game. Wish the kick was a little earlier, but this game needs to be prime time on the east coast, imo.

Yes I will be there this Saturday and also next Saturday against Utah. Are you coming down for the game?

Yessir! I'm bringing the twins with me. I'm not sure who is more excited, them or me! We'll probably hit the Mo pregame so holler if you're there.

 

[Capella]

Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

Lol, no that’s not going to happen. Have you all not paid any attention the last 10 years?

Yes, a 1 loss conference champion always gets in.

you sure about that

 

[General Malaise]

Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

Lol, no that’s not going to happen. Have you all not paid any attention the last 10 years?

Yes, a 1 loss conference champion always gets in.

you sure about that

I was going to point out TCU, but they were co-champs that year as the Big whatever didn't have a title game back then.

 

[Schmeabs]

Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

Lol, no that’s not going to happen. Have you all not paid any attention the last 10 years?

Yes, a 1 loss conference champion always gets in.

you sure about that

Not sure, just what I heard and I can't remember any instances where a 1 loss conference champ has not gotten in.

 

[Capella]

Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

Lol, no that’s not going to happen. Have you all not paid any attention the last 10 years?

Yes, a 1 loss conference champion always gets in.

you sure about that

I was going to point out TCU, but they were co-champs that year as the Big whatever didn't have a title game back then.

2018 Ohio State too. If it can happen to them it can happen to the Pac champ.

 

[Schmeabs]

Us? Again, it isn't just Oregon you need to worry about. A 1 loss Pac 12 champion being either Oregon, UCLA or USC gets in over Tennessee.

Let's take a look at resumes:

OREGON: Currently #6 (19% to win out)

LOSS: #1 Georgia (by 46pts - Blowout)

RANKED WINS:
#12 UCLA (by 15pts)
#13 UTAH (Hasn't Happened)
#25 WASHINGTON (Hasn't Happened)

============

USC: Currently #8 (16% to win out)

LOSS: #13 UTAH (by 1pt)

RANKED WINS:
#6 OREGON (Hasn't Happened)
#12 UCLA (Hasn't happened)
#20 NOTRE DAM (Hasn't Happened)

============

UCLA: Currently #12 (15% to win out)

LOSS: #6 OREGON (by 15pts)

RANKED WINS:
#6 OREGON (Hasn't Happened)
#8 USC (Hasn't Happened)
#13 UTAH (by 10pts)
#24 WASHINGTON (by 8pts)

============

TENNESSEE: Currently #5 (69% to win out)

LOSS: #1 GEORGIA (by 14pts)

RANKED WINS:
#7 LSU (by 27pts - Blowout)
#9 ALABAMA (by 3pts)
#24 KENTUCKY (by 38pts - Blowout)

Tennessee's got a higher starting point in the rankings, A more dominant win resume, a loss to a significantly stronger opponent... and they've actually got all that in the books vs hypothetical.

538 ODDS OF PLAYOFFS if they win out (in a vaccuum):
Oregon: 90%
USC: 78%
Tennessee: 56%
UCLA: 50%

Both Oregon and Tennessee got blown out against Georgia. The rain in the second half made Georgia go more conservative and take their foot off the gas. Wash. Committee is ranking UCLA way too low imo.

Bottom line is committe has never not awarded a 1 loss power 5 conference champ a playoff berth so as long as that happens the Pac 12 champ is in.

You gonna be there Saturday? Should be perfect weather for the game. Wish the kick was a little earlier, but this game needs to be prime time on the east coast, imo.

Yes I will be there this Saturday and also next Saturday against Utah. Are you coming down for the game?

Yessir! I'm bringing the twins with me. I'm not sure who is more excited, them or me! We'll probably hit the Mo pregame so holler if you're there.

Cool. Will send you a PM.

 

[General Malaise]

I don't think we've satisfactorily celebrated in here the fact that MY Kansas Jayhawks are going to a bowl game. Where is my confetti and streamers?